Fantasy Baseball Advice

Minnesota Twins, 2010 Minor League Review

March 23, 2011 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 20 Comments →

Minnesota Twins 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010):
2010 (7) | 2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [94 – 68] AL Central
AAA: [49 – 95] International League – Rochester
AA: [44 – 98] Eastern League – New Britian
A+: [64 – 74] Florida League – Fort Myers
A: [71 – 65] Midwest League – Beloit
Rk: [41 – 25] Appalachian League – Elizabethtown

The Run Down
As a Twins fan I try to be as objective as possible, typically leaning towards harsher judgments of their players and prospects. For example, Danny Valencia inspires as much excitement for me as receiving a sweater from my dear me-ma. Pleasantly to every non-Twins fan – who thought he’d be the second coming of Adrian Beltre – Valencia provided great value for a team that hasn’t had a solid third basemen since Corey Koskie in the early part of the past decade. This year, the pitching is thin behind Kyle Gibson but the Twins pulled off some major amateur signings of Miguel Sano and Max Kepler-Rozycki. Aaron Hicks is developing slowly and 2010′s first round draft pick has the potential to perform like the 2010 Kyle Gibson. With a 2011 farm ranking of 13, the Twins ranking slipped due to trading Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.

Graduated Prospects
#6 (3B) Danny Valencia; #17 (RHP) Alex Burnett; #20 (RHP) Jeff Manship; #27 (C) Jose Morales;

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – (LHP) David Bromberg; #7 (RHP) Carlos Gutierrez; #16 (LHP) Tyler Robertson; (RHP)
Kyle Waldrop
Hitters – #14 (1B/OF) Chris Parmelee; #13 (OF) Joe Benson; #5 (OF) Ben Revere

Players of Interest
All rankings are from Baseball America 2010 with information from Baseball America 2010 and 2011 along with John Sickels Prospect Handbook 2010 and 2011.

Hitters
#5 Ben Revere | CF | D.o.B: 5-3-88 | Stats (AA): .305/.331/.363 | 361 AB | 15 XBH | 1 Hr | .056 ISO | 41:32 K:BB | 36/13 SB/CS | .339 BABIP
All speed and no power make Revere the perfect horsemen to shout, “Juan Pierre is coming!” See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number five.

#13 Joe Benson | OF | D.o.B: 3-5-88 | Stats (A+/AA): ..259/.343/.538 | 459 AB | 65 XBH | 27 Hr | .279 ISO | 136:47 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .350 BABIP (A+); .300 BABIP
Aggressive hitter who is prone to strikeouts. Has five-tool abilities but is average across the board. Great raw power. Scouts say he has “center field range with a right fielder’s arm.” Speed trails only Ben Revere’s in the system. Could replace Michael Cuddyer as early as 2012. Still has work to refine his game. Could be a nice 30/20 with poor average player if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number four.

#14 Chris Parmelee | 1B/OF | D.o.B: 2-24-88 | Stats (A+/AA): .285/.356/.401 | 491 AB | 38 XBH | 8 Hr | .116 ISO | 81:56 K:BB | 3/3 SB/CS | .410 BABIP (A+); .313 BABIP (AA)
Parmelee has struggled to hit for power at the higher levels as stated by his slash line of .275/.341/.389 in 411 AB at Double-A over the past two years. He has plus-raw power but hasn’t be able to utilize this feat within his line drive swing. Defensively, he is adequate at best manning first. It feels like Parmelee has been touted forever because he has; this will be his sixth professional season and local sports writers have been watching him since day one. He needs to refine his hitting approach, increase defensive play and tap into his power to have any relevance going forward. Parmelee is a member of the 40-man roster. At just 23, he’s nearing the end of his prospect glory days. With Morneau’s concussions, he could be up sooner if things start going his way. Watch him start at Double-A to start the 2011 season. Current BA ranking is number 19.

#12 Rene Tosoni | RF | D.o.B: 7-2-86 | Stats (AA): .270/.369/.422 | 185 AB | 16 XBH | 4 Hr | .152 ISO | 52:25 K:BB 3/1 SB/CS | .351 BABIP
After a career year in 2009, Tosoni injured his right shoulder in spring. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled before being placed on DL in June. Even with an injury ridden season, he was added to the 40 man roster. Tosoni has 20/10 potential with a solid average. He could be another Hunter Pence or just another fourth outfielder. Current BA ranking is number 12.

Pitchers
#3 Kyle Gibson | RHP | D.o.B: 10-23-87 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 7.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 152 IP | 2.96 ERA | 2.92 FIP (A+); 3.08 FIP (AA); 3.20 FIP (AAA) | 1.15 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 8.1 H/9 | .274 BABIP (A+); .304 BABIP (AA); .245 BABIP (AAA)
He’s a top 35 ranked prospect in all of baseball. He has a 86 to 92 MPH fastball with good command. He has a two-seamer with good movement (sink and cut). He also throws a plus slider and a plus changeup. Has the ability to induce a lot of groundballs (2.77 GO/AO). His strikeouts decreased at each level. In 43 1/3 innings at High-A he had a 8.3 K/9, in 93 innings at Double-A he had a 7.5 K/9 and in 15 2/3 innings at Triple-A he had a 5.2 K/9. Ceiling is a number one starter. Floor is a number three starter. Should start at Triple-A and receive a midseason promotion to save arbitration time. See Scouting the Unknown for further details. Current BA ranking is number one.

#9 David Bromberg | RHP | D.o.B: 9-14-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): 6.7 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 151 1/3 IP | 3.75 ERA | 3.62 FIP (AA); 4.68 FIP (AAA) | 1.32 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .315 BABIP (AA); .257 BABIP (AAA)
Had solid year but nothing spectacular. Sounds like they should give him a 4 year $16 million contract to him a la Nick Blackburn. He throws the same average fastball between 88 and 92 MPH with an average curve and a sufficient changeup. Could get some action as a spot starter or a righty killer from the bullpen. Current BA ranking is number 13.

Scott Diamond | LHP | D.o.B: 7-30-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 158 2/3 IP | 3.46 ERA | 3.15 FIP (AA); 3.34 FIP (AAA) | 1.39 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9.4 H/9 | .355 BABIP (AA); .291 BABIP (AAA)
A Rule-5 Draft pick, Diamond must stay on the major league squad or be returned to Atlanta. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with good sink (read: groundball pitcher) with a slider and changeup that are average at best. His ceiling is a number four or five starter. Nothing special but in deep leagues could provide solid value over other retreads. Current BA ranking is number 29.

Anthony Slama | RHP | D.o.B: 1-6-84 | Stats (AAA): 10.2 K/9 | 4.4 BB/9 | 65 1/3 IP | 2.20 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.12 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 5.6 H/9 | .235 BABIP
High strikeout reliever alert!  Slama has a deceptive delivery but average stuff. He throws an 88 to 92 MPH fastball and slurve and a changeup. His stats stated he should be given an opportunity to pitch from the bullpen. We’ll see if Gardenhire is willing to bypass his fickle ways. Current BA ranking is number 28.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#1 Aaron Hicks | CF | D.o.B: 10-2-89 | Stats (A): .279/.401/.428 | 423 AB | 41 XBH | 8 Hr | .149 ISO | 112:88 K:BB | 21/11 SB/CS | .359 BABIP
I don’t see him being as exciting as local writer or prospects mavens. Maybe that is because I am skewed by fantasy baseball. Power upside is 20 to 25 home runs, but he doesn’t appear to be hitting that ceiling. His 2010 season was quite a success even if he stayed at Single Low-A for the second year in a row. He has a patient hitting approach, good raw power, above-average speed and good defense. BA projects him to be another Denard Span with better defense. Any Twins fan should be excited about that, just not excited for the next Mike Cameron or any other 25/20 player you can think of. I expect him to be more of another 20/15 type player. Current BA ranking is number two.

#4 Miguel Sano | SS/3B | D.o.B: 5-11-93 | Stats (Rk): .291/.338/.466 | 148 AB | 18 XBH | 4 Hr | .175 ISO | 43:10 K:BB | 2/2 SB/CS | .422 BABIP
Eventually Sano will receive a Scouting the Unknown article. However, he still hasn’t played above Rookie ball. He has tremendous raw power – best in the system, think 30 home runs per year – with good bat speed, strong leverage and knack for recognizing pitches. Projects to play third long term. Current BA ranking is number three.

#10 Max Kepler-Rozycki| OF | D.o.B: 2-10-93 | Stats (Rk): .286/.346/.343 | 140 AB | 7 XBH| 0 Hr | .057 ISO | 6/1 SB/CS | 27:13 K:BB | .354 BABIP
The German son of ballet dancers, Mr. Kepler-Rozycki is still very raw. Projecting him isn’t something Baseball America even tries to do. Instead, they just stated to be aware that he could be moderate power hitter with good defense and speed. Needs more at-bats in the minors before anyone can truly say anything relevant. Current BA ranking is number 11.

Pitchers
Alex Wimmers | RHP | D.o.B: 11-1-88 | Stats (A+): 13.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 15 2/3 IP | .57 ERA | 1.22 FIP | .70 WHIP | .0 Hr/9 | 3.4 H/9 | .200 BABIP
Drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, Wimmers projects to be a perfect middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. He throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good command and control. He also throws a changeup (his best pitch) and a curveball. Should return to High-A and be promoted mid-season to Double-A if all goes well. Current BA ranking is number 7.

Liam Hendriks | RHP | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A/A+): 8.7 K/9 | 1.1 BB/9 | 108 2/3 IP | 1.74 ERA | 1.35 FIP (A); 2.14 FIP (A+) | .84 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .203 BABIP (A); .284 BABIP (A+)
Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oye! Oye! Oye! This Aussie skyrocketed up the Twins farm rankings. Hendriks 2010 season was one of the few bright spots – sure wasn’t their upper minors win-loss record. He throws a 86 to 91 MPH fastball with sinking action and finished the season sitting between 90 and 93 MPH. He also have a good changeup and a curveball that is slight above-average. With great command, a strong work ethic and these numbers, Hendriks will force himself into the major he can do this again. Expect to see him return to High-A to start the year. Current BA ranking is number six.

Minor League Review, Twins

December 02, 2009 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 28 Comments →

Minnesota Twins 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009):
2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

Pitchers
#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.