Fantasy Baseball Advice

In our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone to the top 60 starters and top 60 outfielders thus far.  But since it’s advisable by me and everyone else that has every wielded a fantasy baseball quill to draft pitching late, I figured I needed to give you twenty or so more to bring the tally to the top 80.  There will be a top 80 outfielder post too.  Christmas came late, ya’ll!  In mixed leagues, if I’m drafting this late and I have a choice between an NL pitcher and an AL pitcher, I’d prefer to go for the NL pitcher.  They pitch to other pitchers and mostly weaker offenses.  That is a post in itself.  Also, a lot of these pitchers (and others which will be highlighted during the season) will be smart pickups for some match-ups but aren’t worth starting every game unless they get on a roll.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Manny Parra – This is the first tier of the top 80 starters.  This tier goes from here to Smoltz.  I call this tier, “Major issues with all of these pitchers, but I’ll still be looking at them late in deep leagues.”  Parra will have a sleeper post dedicated to him.  Promise.  See, the thing is, I likey Parra.  Like likey likey.  Though, at times last year, his walks were A to the trocious.  2009 Projections:  11-9/4.10/1.40/160

62. Gil Meche – Meche has been below a 4.00 ERA for two straight years.  Last year, he posted nearly 8 strikeouts per nine innings.  His FIP was 3.61 last year.  Still not convinced?  Neither am I.  Though it’s hard to argue with him as an AL-Only option.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.00/1.33/160

63. Bronson Arroyo – Great guy to have in leagues with an innings category or a bad guitar players category.  2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150

64. Kenshin Kawakami – Went over him when he signed with the Braves.  2009 Projections:  12-8/4.35/1.40/120

65. Chris Volstad – With a douchey name like he’s a character in a Bret Easton Ellis book, you’d think he’d strikeout more hitters.  If his K/9 wasn’t so bleh, I’d like him more.  2009 Projections:  10-7/4.00/1.30/110

66. Randy Johnson – Son, Randy Johnson’s got acne craters older and bigger than you.   He could be a great steal late in drafts as long as you only expect 15 starts.  2009 Projections:  7-4/3.50/1.20/90 in 15 starts

67. Dave Bush – You could draft him and only start him at home (3.82 career ERA) like the Brewers did at times last year.  His low WHIP always makes him a worthwhile gamble and incongruous with his ERA.  2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120

68. Paul Maholm – Last year, Maholm really broke out.  And, when talking about the Pirates, a breakout is considered a low 4.00 ERA.  2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150

69. Aaron Cook – Jon Garland with a better ERA.  That’s about the best compliment I can… *pinkie to mouth* cook up.  2009 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.36/90

70. Edwin Jackson – For about three years, I’ve waited patiently for Jackson to turn the corner from Prospect Ave.  Right now, he seems headed to Journeyman Lane, but he’s still young.  2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120

71. John Smoltz – Went over Smoltz when he signed with the Sawx. 2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.16/60 in 12 starts.

72. Jesse Litsch – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Lannan.  I call this tier, “I’m not drafting any of these guys under any conditions.”  Litsch is the Blue Jays number two starter.  Something tells me they’re not going to be competitive this year either.  Litsch can also be found at the top 20 risky pitchers for 2009 post.  2009 Projections:  5-7/4.50/1.30/55 in 20 starts.

73. Todd Wellemeyer – A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer.  2009 Projections:  6-8/4.75/1.35 in 20 starts.

74. Rich Hill – Match Game Host, Gene Rayburn, “Last year, Rich Hill was really bad.” Studio Audience, “How bad was he?”  Gene, “He was so bad he ____.”  Went over him further when the O’s got him.  2009 Projections:  4-5/4.75/1.45/60 in fifteen starts.

75. Joe Blanton – Too bad he’s not a lousy pitcher and injury-prone so Carrasco could slide in.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.75/1.40/110

76. Pedro Martinez – Wasn’t that long ago he was carrying around a good luck dwarf and celebrating a championship.  Now that dwarf is doing better than Pedro’s career.  2009 Projections:  6-7/4.70/1.50/80 in 20 starts.

77. Nick Blackburn – Very little to see here.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.30/1.34/85

78. Jon Garland -I didn’t go over him when he went to the Diamondbacks, because there’s not much to say.  He’s a much better real world pitcher, racking up innings, than a fantasy pitcher.  He didn’t get 100 Ks last year in 197.2 innings.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.75/1.42/95

79. John Lannan – Don’t you dare draft him.   He will suck your soul and crush your girl-like emotions.  2009 Projections: 6-9/5.00/1.44/80

80. Brad Penny – This is the last tier.  This tier goes from here to Shawn Hill.  I call this tier, “You can do much worse very late in deep leagues.”  If you throw out Penny’s season last year, where he looked miserable and hurt, he would be coming off a 16-4/3.03/1.31 season in 208 innings.  If healthy, he could be a steal late.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.00/1.30/130

81. Aaron Heilman – Went over him when Heilman was traded — the 2nd time.  2009 Projections:  9-4/4.00/1.15/120 in 20 starts.

After the top 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these three stand out:

Carlos Carrasco – Went over him in the Carrasco keeper post.  Big things, I tell ya.  Big…. Things.  Not sure if he sees time out of the gate, but watch him if a Phillies pitcher gets injured.  2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.32/60 in ten starts.

Mark Buehrle – He’s not flashy with those Big City Ks. You probably won’t want to own him. But for the better part of two years, I’ve owned him off and on. He’s usually good for a few ‘worth-owning’ streaks a year. 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120

Shawn Hill – Usually I end the lists with an exciting name.  But, guess what?  We’re almost 100 deep into the starters so exciting was barfed into an airplane toilet about six tiers ago and flushed out somewhere over Guatemala.  Word is Shawn Hill will be healthy for the 2009 season, but keep your expectations in check because he’s never been healthy in his career.  Then again, you probably have no expectations of Shawn Hill.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d take a very late flier on Hill.  2009 Projections:  8-6/4.10/1.26/110 in 20 starts.

That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington.  And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome.  I’m real late to the discussion on some of these.  Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention.  So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

Yesterday, Luis Ayala was acquired by Mets. You know that thing about the girl you don’t know is better than the one you’re with? The grass is greener thing. Yeah, the Mets just got themselves a new girl. Why? Wagner’s old and he just had a setback (of course) so he’s not coming back as soon as thought. I’d peg mid-September as a fair timetable his for return. For now, it’s still anyone’s game for saves. Heilman, Kunz, Feliciano, Orosco, Mr. Met, Ralph Kiner, et al. They might all be better options than Ayala, but they’re not the new girl. The only reason why we’re concerned with this is because the Mets will win a lot of games. If someone can separate themselves from the pack, they could get a decent amount of saves while Wagner’s on the mend. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hideki Matsui – Set to return on Tuesday. I’d prefer a hot hand, then a vet who’s just returning from injury. Especially a vet that has averaged a HR every 25 at-bats for his career. Not sure what the excitement is, but I guess it’s a Yankee thing. How’s Jeter treating you, Yankee fans?

Clayton Kershaw – 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER. Should’ve had a win, but Braun took Chan Ho out of the Park.

Chris Dickerson – Hit a homer the other day. Went 3-for-5 yesterday. I think I’ve officially beat Dickerson into the ground.

Chris Davis – About to get third base eligibility if Hank Blalock can return and stay healthy at first. Yes, it’s an if the size of the Grand Canyon.

Andre Ethier – 2 HRs yesterday. He’s been starting over Juan Pierre on most days and has 4 HRs in his last four starts.  Torre sits him against lefties, which makes your job easy for when to start him.

Carlos Pena – HR yesterday. Four HRs last week. When I ranked him 46th in the top 100 for fantasy baseball’s 2nd half, here’s what I said, “For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me!

Javier Vazquez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks. June, 7.48 ERA; July, 5.65; August, you dropped him. Hey, Vazquez, how about you buy me dinner first?

Melvin Mora – 5-for-6 with 2 HRs. As I mentioned, in this week’s Buy/Sell, Mora’s feces has been smelling like Reese’s Pieces.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 0 ER. This doesn’t mean he’ll go on another run like in the beginning of the year, he’s just trying to find his way to a 3.50 ERA. He’s currently at 2.73.

Rickie Weeks – Left with a thumb injury. Nomar, “I feel ya, man!” If Weeks is hitting the DL is the point, you play the Pass Line.

Alexis Rios – 5-for-6, there will be a point during this offseason when I’ll write a post making a case for Rios being a sleeper for next year. Just comment, “No.”

Roy Oswalt – Threw a one hitter over 8 IP. Looks like he put his hip injury behind him (or beside him).

Ty Wiggington – Accounted for all three of the Astros’s runs yesterday and this week he went 9/3/9/.560. There was a bit of a Wiggington Fan Club forming yesterday in the comments. I’m assuming future meetings of the WFC will be taking place in the octagon.

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday. May all your pitchers pitch at Petco and all your hitters hit at Arlington. Amen.

Jensen Lewis – Got the save yesterday as Perez entered the game in the seventh. Lewis is being viewed as the closer, whether he’s the best guy for the job is irrelevant. If you’re holding Perez for saves, you’re only going to get the very rare situational ones.

Adam Lind – HR, 3-for-6. Averaging a HR in just over five games since his recall and hitting .330.

Todd Jones – Went back to the DL, but it looks like Rodney is the closer now anyway. (Rodney is now sure to give up five runs just because I wrote he’s the closer.)

Brandon Moss – Left the game with an ankle injury. Now he may gather some moss.

Dan Wheeler – Got the save on Sunday when Balfour couldn’t get the job done. (Balfour did intentionally walk Hamilton with the bases loaded. This is the only time this has happened to anyone, except Barry Bonds in the last 60 years, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Actually, they didn’t say it, but they could’ve. Here’s some other things Elias Sports Bureau could’ve said this week around the office, “Tuesday was the first time Jim in Accounting didn’t call his wife three times before noon,” “Thursday marked the seventeenth time since March that Sally, Burt’s secretary, dropped a call” and “Fridays will no longer be Casual Fridays for Peter because he can’t tell the difference between pants and sweatpants.”

Already sporting 2 of the top 3 NL windmills in Krispie Young and Mark Reynolds, the D-Backs traded for #5 Adam Dunn.  Dunn will give you HR.  Dunn will give you OBP.  Everything else is ugly and it looks like the Reds just couldn’t take looking at it anymore. It’s as if he’s Moneyball on the rocks and everyone prefers to add some tonic or juice. This doesn’t do much for Dunn’s value.  He still has home games in a hitter’s park and it’s not like his HRs wouldn’t clear the walls in San Diego and SF. This move adds some offensive punch to the D-Backs lineup, but remember Dunn was never a huge RBI guy. Speaking of huge, there’s a hole in the Reds team now that Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, (or Jim Thome) could walk through. Hairston should benefit from the lineup spot vacancy and Patterson should get most starts in the outfield. But who will the Reds now judge burly against? Their lardstick has left the building. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Evan Longoria – Fractured wrist sends Longoria to the DL. Word around Wisteria Lane is the injury happened from bitch-slapping Nicolette Sheridan. It’s tough being the youngest and prettiest on the block… For the Rays, this is a tough 1-2 after losing Carl Crawford. It’s as if the world realizes something is amiss with the Rays winning and wants to put things back in order. Bad news for Longoria owners. There’s a chance the Rays rush him back for the pennant race, but there’s also a good chance he may not return this year in time to help anyone or he may return and not be the same hitter in the final month. Wrist injuries are often doom for hitters’ short-term production.

CJ Wilson – Done for the season. Guardado will remain the closer until he begins to look more like the real Guardado then Frank Francisco will take over. ETA for real Guardado? 3 days to one month.

Justin Verlander – 4.1 IP, 6 ER. Reports are saying he has a dead arm. That doesn’t mean he’s walking around like a zombie with his arm sticking out. It means Leyland had him throw 130 pitches last week then had him throw 4 days later. Luckily, a dead arm is not as bad as an injured arm. But it’s the first step.

Aaron Heilman – 3 ER, blowing the save. If Heilman’s got Jerry Manuel pulling out his hair, he might want to call Guiseppe Franco. When the best righty closer in your team’s 40+ year history is Armando Benitez, you’ve got to expect the worst. If you’re Double D’d with closers, you might want to punt this whole situation.

John Grabow – Save for Pittsburgh. Might be good for 5-7 more saves the rest of the way which will require 10-12 Tums.

Glen Perkins – Kudos to those of you who had the cajones to start the now 9-3 Perkins against the Yanks as he shut them out for 8 innings.  He’s not going to give you K’s or a great WHIP but he might be worth keeping an eye on for spot starts the rest of the way.

Carlos Lee – Had surgery on his pinkie. The operating doctor said, “It had been torn apart like a jigsaw puzzle that we put together.” Okay, but was it like a snow scene puzzle where there’s like 3000 white pieces or was it a dogs playing poker puzzle?

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER. He looks flat-out usable. (Which is, of course, below flat-out dominating and above flat-out awful.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Returns from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt anyone else reinjuring himself on Wednesday.

Hideki Matsui/Joba Chamberlain – Hideki’s running the bases and Joba’s set to throw on Friday. Everything’s all right in Yankee land, except for getting shutout by the aforementioned Glen Perkins. And batting Justin Christian lead off. And being 9 games behind the Rays. And being closer to the fourth place Jays than the second place Sox. And starting Sidney Ponson every fifth day. And starting Rasner. And relying on Xavier Nady. And still paying Carl Pavano. And thinking Ivan Rodriguez would really matter in the big picture. But other than those things, all is right in Yankee land.

Joel Hanrahan had 2 saves yesterday in the Nationals’ sweep of Colorado 6-3, 6-3 as they decided to emulate a successful tennis player instead of a successful golfer for a change (hitting below par). Hanrahan set a new Nationals record for most saves in a doubleheader, series, week, and month. On a related topic, Chad ‘Rip-Cord’ Cordero spent the day ironing his hat brim. One of the stars of the game was Emilio Bonifacio, who went 4-for-10 in the doubleheader. I mentioned him yesterday for fantasy baseball hittters to pickup, but I feel like he might need to get flogged a little into your collective minds, because I’m not feeling the love. He is the lightning fast, leadoff man/second baseman for the Nats. This schmohawk could steal as many bases in the last two months as Roberts did in the 1st half. What, you say you don’t like players whose last name you can’t pronounce? SAGNOF! SAGNOF! Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face! Felipe Lopez was dropped by the Nats to show their commitment to Bonifacio. Now show yours. The other star of the twin bill was Lastings Milledge, who went 5-for-9 with 2 HRs. Now has four HRs in August. He could continue his hot hitting. Luckily the Nats bring in less than 1,000 fans per game or that would be a lot of high fives. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Schoeneweis – With Wagner out, the question was who would step in his shoes. Schoeneweis entered the ninth and promptly blew the save. Looks like the Mets found a Wagner replacement. Now to find a closer.

Aaron Heilman – 2/3 of an inning and the gift win. Don’t worry, he’ll balance it out with a loss when he’s inserted into the closer role.

Jody Gerut – Another HR yesterday. Okay, this the last time I’m mentioning him.

Chase Headley – 2 HRs in last two games. In the one league where I had Headley, I got bored of him and the Padres’ offense so I picked up Andy LaRoche. What invariably happens when you drop someone? They get hot.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5 IP, 6 ER. I told you last week, “Last year, (Ubaldo) had a solid July then got progressively worse as the year went on. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.” And that’s me quoting me!

Justin Duchscherer – 5 IP, 4 ER. Member that correction I warned you about? The one where I said Duchscherer is going to fall back to earth? Yup and uh-huh.

Scott Feldman – 7 IP, 2 ER. Mazel Tov. You’re a man now!

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER. Evidently, Alyssa Milano’s advice to breath through his eyeballs helped. That and the blow job.

Jeff Francis – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER also known as the ‘Colorado Rockies Quality Start.’ Throw Francis in the Snell Bag of starters who were useful last year, but currently are not.

Chris Volstad – 6 IP, 0 ER. While his name makes him sound like a cocky little douche like Josh Beckett, he’s actually a sinker ball pitcher. Go figure.

AJ Burnett – Despite a 4.50 ERA and pitching for the Jays, Burnett pitched a so-so game to net his 14th win. That’s worth 9 wins in America. Ask Johan.

Dan Uggla – 0-for-4. .179 since July 1st. It’s a long, bumpy road back to a .250 career average.

Brian Giles – Might be traded to the Red Sox. Could be interesting to see him hit some walks off The Green Monster.

Jim Leyland – Suggested newly appointed closer, Joel Zumaya, go to an instructional league this winter to learn to be a closer. If that makes no sense to you, welcome to my brain. Hopefully the instructional league is somewhere without forest fires or Guitar Hero. Leyland volunteered to visit him in hopes that the Caribbean Duty-Free stores have nice discounts on Marlboro Reds.

Manny Ramirez – HR yesterday. The league is investigating the circumstances surrounding the Red Sox-Dodgers trade of Manny Ramirez. When asked about his departure from the Red Sox, Manny responded “By plane.”