Fantasy Baseball Advice

This isn’t meant to replace Smokey’s two-start pitchers for fantasy that comes every weekend. This is meant to supplement that, like something A-Rod’s cousin would give you. This isn’t two start pitchers, this is barely owned guys that could give you one start. A pick up and a drop. They’re all owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons-of-bees goes out the window this time of year. If you’re battling for pitching points or in the H2H playoffs, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April. Suddenly, Jeff Francis looks ownable and John Lannan doesn’t look like John Lannan, but looks like a guy whose home ERA is under 3. So I’ve assembled starters from Friday, the new Hump Day, until next Wednesday, the old Hump Day, that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Lannan). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

Every day that Justin Verlander starts, you know there’s a chance of a no-hitter.  You just expect it to be thrown by him and not another pitcher.  Guillermo Moscoso took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Royals and finished with 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks in 8 2/3 IP.  He now has 8 wins in 18 starts which is as many wins as Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Rich Harden managed this year combined.  Everything about Moscoso’s year screams fluke.  His 3.63 ERA / 1.14 WHIP does not gel with 5 K/9 and 3 BB/9.  But as an owner of this guy in my AL-only league, all I can say is this guy has been money against bad to average teams.  He’s had 4 ugly starts – @BOS, @TAM, @DET, and home against TAM.  His home WHIP is now under 1.00 in over 60 innings.  His road WHIP is 1.44.  There’s not much time left this season but if he has a start against a bad-to-average team at home – I’d go-go for Moscoso.

In other news…

Jerome Williams – The Angels’ starter has won all 3 of his Angel starts with this past one by far the best – 8 IP with just one hit (a Trayvon Robinson HR) and a walk.  Nothing to see here.  Just a 30 year old journeyman who’s perhaps half a notch more tolerable than Tyler Chatwood.

Chase Utley - Pulled out of the game after being hit in the helmet.  The Phillies brass are concerned he might have a mild concussion but Charlie Manuel is confident it’s just a standard variety ‘noggin burner’ and he just needs to rub some ‘piss ‘n’ vinegar’ on it.

Matt Cain – 7 IP, 2 ER, loss.  Same old song.  He’s now 11-10 despite a 1.06 WHIP.  He’s a career 68-73 despite a career 1.19 WHIP.  He should retaliate against the offense – I suggest he takes a dump in the pine tar.  Just don’t lose your balance or you’ll end up with sticky buns and tempt Pablo Sandoval.

Aaron Harang – Beat the Giants with a 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunner, 3 K start.  He’s now 13-5 for a team that’ s 19 games under .500 (62-81).  He’s like Steve Carlton for the 1972 Phillies except he’s not lefty, not an above average pitcher (3.74 ERA/1.39 WHIP), and has never allegedly said that the world is ruled by 12 Jewish bankers meeting in Switzerland.

Ian Kinsler – 2 HRs to up his season total to 28 and tie for the team lead (with Nelson Cruz).  If it weren’t for the .245 AVG, he’d be in the conversation with Cano and Pedroia for most valuable fantasy 2B (.245/101/28/71/23).  Or as an incompetent announcer would phrase it, “You talk about second baseman who can hit…Ian Kinsler…”

Justin Verlander - Snagged win #22 but gave up 4 ERs thanks to 2 HR / 4 RBI by his kryptonite – Shelley Duncan.  Clearly Verlander can only effectively pitch to batters shorter than him and he’s just lucky that there aren’t a lot of 6’5″+ hitters.  The Yankee and Red Sox scouts should be out recruiting locked-out NBA players for playoff rosters.  If there’s one lesson to be learned from Mighty Morphin Power Rangers, it’s that if the other guy is going to go tall, you’ve got to do the same.  If there is a second lesson to be learned from MMPR, it is that if you’re producing a show that has kid actors, it is best to hide their faces behind masks so you can swap in other actors when the original ones get too old or expensive.  Saved By The Bell would still be on if it was set in Milwaukee and each of the kids wore a different sausage costume.  (Kelly Kapowski – Polish sausage.  Slater – Chorizo.  Zach – Bratwurst.  No one qualified for Italian Sausage until the summer season with Stacey Carosi.)

Victor Martinez - Hit a 7th inning grand slam.  His .325 AVG and 89 RBIs are great for a catcher but that was only his 10th HR of the year.  And he’ll have only DH-eligibility next year.  V-Mart is going to be discounted like he’s Wal-Mart.  (Correction: As noted in the comments, V-Mart has 26 games at Catcher this year so should retain C-eligibility next year.)

Daniel Bard - The Sawx’ rumored closer in waiting ruined Tim Wakefield’s billionth chance of being one of the 13 worst pitchers with 200 career wins by posting a 5-spot thanks to a single, HBP, 3 BBs, and the next pitcher giving up a run-clearing double.  That said, aside from having only 2 wins, Bard has been everything a Mr. B could’ve hoped for (2.76 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 66 Ks, 1 pity save).

Jacoby Ellsbury - 4 for 5 with a HR (#25), 3 RBIs, and 2 Runs.  5 more HRs away from 30-30.  And only 2 HRs and 44 SBs away from joining Rickey Henderson and Eric Davis in the illustrious 27-80 club.  (Oddly enough, both done in 1986 – Davis in 415 ABs!).

Manny Acosta – Got the save for the Mets as Parnell and Izzy threw 30+ pitches the night before and no one else in the bullpen had 299 saves.

Carlos Lee - Hit his 15th HR of the year – and his 3rd in the past 8 games.  Maybe El Caballo doesn’t need to be taken to the glue factory just yet.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate HR’d twice against the Astros.  He’s now at 81/22/85 but only 20 SBs and .269.  Jeff Francoeur has 20 SBs.  Braun has more than 20 SBs.  Can’t the Pirates hire Omar Moreno to be his Davey Lopes?

Chris Carpenter - Shut out the Brewers on 4 hits, 2 BB, and 5 Ks.  He also allegedly yelled an expletive at Nyjer Morgan.  Maybe he just mispronounced his name.

Rafael Furcal – Another HR – his 4th in the last 8 games.  He had 4 in his first 63 games.  Even with the sudden power burst, wow do his stats look bad this year.  .215 AVG?  5 SBs?  When did Rafael Furcal turn into Rafael Belliard?

Roy Oswalt – The 2nd best Roy in Philly is looking close to his old magical self again with a 7 IP, 7 K, 2 ER effort vs. Atlanta.  I’m having a premonition – Oswalt pitches well through the regular season + 1st round of the playoffs, makes some bad throws in the championship series, says he’s going to retire to spend more time with his family and tractor in Mississippi, and then end up playing again in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  It’s just the Mississippi way.

Jemile Weeks – 4 for 5, now batting .303 with 22 doubles, 21 SBs, and 0 HRs.  Growing up, Jemile was always the fast one, Rickie was the strong one, and Nynind’haph was the seductive one.

Brett Pill - 2 games, 2 HRs, for the Giant rookie 1B who mashed in AAA the past two years while the Giants skipped over him to promote rookie tease sensation Brandon Belt.  Proof once again that when grabbing for the Belt, it’s better to be safe and take the Pill first.

Collin Cowgill sounds like a Texas radio personality or a DC Comic character, but is actually the Diamondbacks’ fifth round pick from 2008 that is killing the minor leagues.  (That’s the urbandictionary killing, which is actually good.  I’m hip, snitches!)  In 97 games, 13 homers and 29 steals with a .354 average.  It was in the PCL though, where they pump helium into their stadiums.  And, now, guess what?  Well, he’s getting called up, I mean that’s obvious, isn’t it?  Why else am I talking about him?  In deeper leagues, I’d grab Cowgill to see if he can translate his power and speed combo to the majors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler – 4-for-6, 4 RBIs and his 16th homer.  Andrus went 3-for-6, 2 RBIs; Hamilton 2-for-4, 3 RBIs; Napoli 4-for-5; Cruz 4-for-6; Young hit a homer.  Frankly, the Rangers scoring summary was denser than David Foster Wallace footnotes.

Chris Davis – 0-for-6 while the Rangers scored 20 runs.  That is an incredible ticker tease.  It almost seems mathematically impossible it’s so epic.  Though Davis is more like a career tease.  He wears low cut skirts and a chastity belt.  (BTW, Davis also had two errors.  Too bad none of my fantasy teams have a slot for a futility player.)

Pedro Alvarez – 1-for-3 yesterday as he was promoted after Alex Presley was seen leaving the building.  I think the Pirates and Pedro agreed to forget that the first half ever happened.  Pirates collective voice, “Pedro, just hit like you did last 2nd half.  We’ll blame the first half on one of the many subpar 3Bs we’ve had over the years.  Pedro Alvarez, nah?  That was Jose Hernandez.  Or Andy LaRoche.  Or Jose Bautista– Oops, can’t use that one anymore.”

James McDonald – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He was in last Friday’s Buy/Sell.  He was on the left side, which is the right side.  Weird!

Chipper Jones – 2-for-4 with a slam and legs as he returned from the DL.  Unfortunately, this is Glass Chipper we’re talking about and he was removed from the game with a tight quad.  I’d say he’s day-to-day, but with Chipper it’s more like minute-to-minute.

Cliff Lee – 4 IP, 5 ER vs. the Padres in Philly.  Imagine the Padres called a hitter-friendly stadium home?  Then they’d have mediocre pitching to go along with mediocre hitting.

R.A. Dickey – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. Mike Leake (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks).  How do they have a Dickey/Leake matchup and not have former Reds pitching coach, Dick Pole, throw out the first pitch?  Okay, okay.  Instead of saying a ball was hit up the middle, the announcers should’ve said it went through the vas deferns.  All right, all right.  When Dickey was facing Leake, did he shake off the curve?  Okay, that’s enough.  Geez.

Jason Isringhausen – Got another save, but you should wait until the trading deadline to drop Parnell.  That’s me reiterating me!

Dan Haren – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Finally someone snuck in and changed his calendars back to June.  See, you don’t need acne to get proactive.

Jason Kubel – 2-for-4 and a homer.  I’m not a huge fan, but if you’re struggling for power, wouldn’t hurt to try Kubel.

Ezequiel Carrera – 0-for-3.  Know what would be utterly fantastic?  If the guy whose name is Spanish for squirrel, would run like one.  Stop worrying about your Amish morals and steal a base, Ezequiel!

Fausto Carmona – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I wouldn’t own Fausto in any league so this isn’t about him.  Do you get the sense the Indians are hoping they lose some games so they don’t have to pretend to trade for players?

Carlos Lee – 1-for-4 with a grand slam.  2nd day in a row with a homer.  Looks like Chuck Lee is the Flavor Flav of the week for power.

Colby Rasmus – 1-for-3, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in two games.  You can keep beating down Colby, but he’s a Survivor.

Yadier Molina – The youngest member of the Flying Molina Bros. has now hit a homer in three straight games.

Lance Berkman – Big Puma is out for a day or two with a rotator cuff strain.  Coincidentally, my Mercury Cougar’s out for a day or two with an alternator issue.  Nothing a little mustache grease can’t fix.

Jose Altuve – 3-for-4, now hitting .412 since his call up.  If you’re having issues with your middle infidel, could be worth the flyer.

Mark Buehrle – 6 IP, 0 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Season ERA at 3.22.  Him and Danks are like Trader Joe’s wine.  Are you impressing anyone with it?  Nope, but it does get the job done and it’s not as bad as you think.

Sergio Santos – Didn’t get the save because Ozzie had Sale open the ninth in a 3-run game.  After the game, Ozzie tweeted, “My H2H opponent has Santos.  #sorryputas”

Juan Pierre – 2-for-5 with his 16th steal and 12th caught stealing.  Jonah Hill in Moneyball would not be impressed.

Jason Vargas – 4 IP, 4 ER.  I said this last time, but not everyone reads every day.  I get it, you have to tend to your crops in Farmville.  Either way, Vargas is no longer ownable in most mixed leagues.

Kevin Youkilis – Left Monday’s contest with hamstring tightness.  The Jewish Youkilis should know better than to mess with hamstrings.

Desmond Jennings – 2-for-4 with his 3rd steal.  I’m gonna photocopy Jennings’ face onto a thousand doilies and fashion a dress out of it, then walk around singing, “Don’t mess with my Desmond Tutu!”

Rubby de la Rosa – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 3.49.  I have my shades drawn so my solar calculator doesn’t work, but could someone tell me the collective ERA for all starters in the NL West?

Aaron Harang – 6 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks.  The Harangutan now has 9 wins and a 3.45 ERA.  Boy am I glad I drafted Liriano!

Cameron Maybin – Out for a few games with a strained hip flexor.  When he returns, his coming up to bat song will no longer be The Twist.

Kyle Blanks – 7 Ks in 13 ABs.  He fills in the blanks with K’s.  Yi_es!  Quit stri_ing out, you motherfuc_er!

Trading season is upon us and Leo Nunez and Heath Bell could be out while Mike Dunn or Mike Adams could be in.  And K-Rod is 5 minutes ago, according to Jessica Shaw.  Every time Bell seems more likely to be traded first, Jeffrey Loria whips his checkbook onto the Marlins GM’s back to trade faster.  Between Dunn and Adams, Dunn is less likely to get saves between him and Adams.  Dunn’s chances skyrocket if he can bake McKeon’s favorite prune cookies or if he pushes Cishek down a flight a stairs.  Outside of trading, Aroldis Chapman is nipping on Francisco Cordero’s heels, but don’t forget Dusty’s penchant to stick with his incumbent.  On a related note, Ancestry.com revealed earlier this week that Dusty is a direct descendent of Jim O’Rourke, the manager of the 1883 Buffalo Bisons who once pitched Pud Galvin 656 1/3 innings in one season.  Your best bet for saves is to grab Mike Adams, Dunn or Chapman, in that order.  Or reverse order if you’re dyslexic.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Bobby Parnell – It’s all SAGNOF, all the time today, huh?  Hold the chicken, bring me the toast, give me a check for the chicken salad sandwich and put the SAGNOF between your knees.

Jason Isringhausen – Between Parnell and Izzy, I like Parnell.  Okay, that’s a lie.  I like whoever the Mets want to use in the ninth.  But I like Parnell to be used in the ninth more.

Jon Rauch – Him and his neck tattoo will shank you with saves.

Sean Marshall – I originally thought if Marmol gets replaced Wood would (stutterer!) take over over (stop stuttering!) Marshall, but Quade says Marshall, so that’s the guy to grab.  I also don’t think Marmol loses the job for long.  Maybe a few days to a week.

Javy Guerra – Only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues, but 85% of ESPN leagues are abandoned so I guess he’s owned in 103% of leagues.  Sounds a little high.

Paul Maholm – Has a 2.96 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and you’re standing there with your hands in your pants playing pocket bocci ball.

Vance Worley – A tub of Liquid Paper is about to fall on his stats for some correction, but while he’s pitching well on a good team, as Fonzie’s horse said, what the hey?

Aaron Harang – Good for home starts and if your league has the category, “Ugly.”

Cory Luebke – Has an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.89.  Geez, Officer Luebke, an ERA and WHIP like that?!

Mike Trout – Don’t have much faith in the Los Angeles Angels of Orange County Which Could Become A Different State From Los Angeles playing Trout once Bourjos returns, but I’d hold him to see how it pans out.

Nate Schierholtz – Every dawn has its day, every rose has its thorn and every year Schierholtz gets hot for about two weeks at a time.

Jose Tabata – Does he realize that the B in SB stands for base, not baby?  Maybe, maybe not.  Any the hoo!  He should be back any day now, Annie Potts.  I’d grab him in all but the shallowest leagues.  What’s the worst thing that could happen?  He goes 0-for-35 and steals your baby?  Big whoop!

Brandon Allen – Just went over my Brandon Allen fantasy.  I wrote it while manscaping.  Don’t judge me.

Scott Sizemore – With Grady being yawnstipating, Scott is about the only Sizemore doing anything, unless you count Tom Sizemore doing coke.

Jason Kipnis – Before we starting reaching around on each other that we picked up Kipnis first, what current rookie call up has made a difference on your team if you’re in a league shallower than 14 teams?  I like Kipnis for some light speed and power and decent average.  In two months, he could give you 7/7.  Get one more seven and you’ll have a jackpot in Reno, not so much in fantasy baseball.

Zack Cozart – I gave you my Zack Cozart fantasy last week.  I wrote it while playing craps with Pete Rose.

Eduardo Nunez – Maybe Nunez, the Yankees super-sub, can have A-Rod get Boras on the horn to see if Nunez can get some endorsements while he’s filling in for the next month.  “Bronx Subway’s Super-sub is a steal!”  That’s Eduardo Nunez badly reading a cue card in a local commercial.  BTW, what smells worse — New York subways or a Subway restaurant?

SELL

Shaun Marcum – We had high hopes for Marcum this year, didn’t we?  Well, I did.  Member in January when I had rented that biplane and wrote Marcum in a heart in the sky?  We found out two things that day 1) I loved Marcum 2) I look good in aviator goggles.  He didn’t fully disappoint.  7 wins, 3.39/1.13/101 Ks in the 1st half is nothing to sneeze at unless you’re allergic to productive #2 fantasy starters.  The problem moving forward is I think he’s still hurt.  He’s a man’s man that eats grizzly bear steaks and wears their dead grizzly heads for a hat, so I think he’s going to try to pitch through the pain and be less effective.  I wouldn’t trade him for a Billy Butler-endorsed manssiere, but I’d explore options.

Johnny Cueto – He has a 1.96 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.  His K-rate is 5.44 and his walk rate is 2.83.  Another temporarily unnamed pitcher has a K-rate of 5.35 and a walk rate of 2.83.  That’s Fausto Carmona and his ERA is 5.78.  Obviously they’re not the same pitcher unless they urinated in a fountain while making a wish.  Cueto’s BABIP is .218 and he’s leaving more than 80% of men on base.  A pimply teenager runs into frame and screams, “Watch out!  Johnny Cueto is gonna fall back to earth!”  I’ve said that before, but everything in Hollywood needs a sequel.

It’s a confusing week for me to grasp. Some formats are a short week, others role on until literally the middle (or end) of next week. So first things first, I will tackle the short 4 game week and give you some unbridled gems of the streaming variety. Stay tuned on Saturday for the following week’s two start thinga-ma-bobbers.  If this is a short week for you, it’s prolly best to grab as many of these guys as possible, longer week not so much as you may want to call Laurel and tell him to take a breather. So enjoy the short week or long and I will give you an update later this week for week 15 ½ or 16. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

7/14
Bruce Chen @ Min (Liriano) – 2.50 ERA since DL stint return. Is the definition of a streaky low end good/bad pitcher.

Jason Vargas vs. Tex (Holland) – Basically needs to go the distance to have a chance at a win. 1.70 ERA in last 4 starts.

Aaron Harang vs. SF (Bumgarner) – The primate in the zoo, Hodgepadre indeed.

7/15
Andrew Miller @ TB (Price) – 4 starts, 3 wins plays for the best lineup in baseball. That is all.

Doug Fister vs. Tex (Lewis) – Gets zero run support. I really feel bad for him because if you haven’t seen him pitch, he is very unheralded and unrewarded.

Jeff Karstens @ Hou (Myers) – Is he awesome, no. Effective lately yes. Regression will ensue.

Josh Tomlin @ Bal (Arrieta) – Sneaky 10 win pitcher, other numbers say he is pitching exactly the way he should be.

Vance Worley @ NYM (Dickey) – Awesome since mid-June. If he isn’t owned, your league is dull.

7/16
Paul Maholm @ Hou (Norris) – 4-2 with a 1.75 ERA in last 7 starts. For the soon to be first place Pirates.

Barry Zito @ SD (Luebke) – 3 wins, tiny ERA since DL return.

Edwin Jackson @ Det (Scherzer) – Huh, yeah I wanted to highlight that this will be his last start in Chi-town. That’s me predicting me!

Carlos Zambrano vs. Fla (Vazquez) – Fresh from the DL, seems like a trend for this post. Pitches just effectively enough to be added/dropped about 10 times a year. Ah, but look closer, he has RP elig, sneaky play for a Saturday.

7/17
Chris Volstad @CHC (Wells) – Stop trying to strike everyone out, you’re a groundball pitcher.

Matt Harrison @ Sea (Beavan) – Seattle O is good twice a week.  Coincidentally, that’s how much my garbage is picked up.

Brian Duensing vs. KC (Paulino) – Sneaky good lately, here for the added eligibility.

Kevin Correia @ Hou (Rodriquez) – Is money on the road.