Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome to our second FanDuel Freeroll of the season. And congrats to fyeabaseball who took 1st out of 337 entries and won a cool 75 toad hides. I came in 70th and am a disgrace to my family. This week’s freeroll is on Friday the 13th which means Peyton Hillis will jinx a Ricky Nolasco no-no.

Here are some possible plays for Friday’s games:

P: Ricky Nolasco: Ricky is 5-1 against the Astros with 2 complete games.

C: Ryan Hanigan: He is a pretty decent 5 for 5 against against Jordan Zimmerman. I think that is good. Let me get my calculator out.

1B: Justin Morneau: Morneau is 2 for 4 off Matt Harrison.

2B: Rickie Weeks: Jair Jurrjens has given up 3 hits in 7 at bats to Weeks.

2B: Robinson Cano: Cano has hit Ervin Santana very well in his career going 11 for 32 against him with 4 donkaruskis.

3B: Jack Hannahan: Your deep thought for today is that Hannahan is 6 for 11 off Luke Hochevar with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 ribbies.

3B: Chone Figgins: Bartolo Colon has allowed 5 hits in 12 at bats to Figgy Cent.

SS: Derek Jeter: He’s been hitting well early and is 17 for 38 with 3 home runs against Ervin Santana.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera: Luke Hochevar has not pitched well against the current Cleveland roster and Cabrera has hit 7 of 19 against him.

OF: Austin Jackson: Jackson is 3 for 6 against Jake Peavy and has been hot to start the season.

OF: Cameron Maybin: Maybin is 4 for 10 off Aaron Harang with a homer and has been playing wellish. Not Welsh.

OF: Shin-Soo Choo: Choo is 13 for 23 against Hochevar with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 10 RBIs.

Now let’s take a look at some of the early bargains at each position in FanDuel so far this season. There is a balance you have to make with value versus bad assness. You’ll see that Miguel Cabrera has been dominant so far AND has the most points per $1,000 spent (for non pitchers). So there is a win/win situation, but that’s not always the case. Jeff Samardzija is a risky player who really paid off last time but Felix Hernandez who costs a whole Yugo more is safer and put up 25 FanDuel Points in his first start. In hindsight you would choose Samardzija everyday, but we aren’t always going to be that lucky. That’s what makes the game fun I guess.

This is the league we won last year hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports.  Yay, us.  Okay, new year, new league.  Well, not so fast.  Last year’s league coasted through the season in first place from about May on and if you were industrious enough to click on that link, you’ll see it looks like a bit of a mess.  We won with Freddy Sanchez and Skip Schumaker?  We didn’t just win; we won in a walk.  I don’t tell you to beat into your heads how good we are (maybe a little).  I tell you this so you know how deep the league is you’re about to look at.  No, I don’t like Clint Barmes, but if he’s getting ABs at MI in this here league, he’s worth a roster spot.  Anyway, here’s our 2012 fantasy baseball team with thoughts on different draft picks:

For sake of clarity:  12 teams, NL-Only, Roto, 5 x 5 — C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, BN, BN, BN — P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL

C – Ryan Hanigan $4
C – Geovany Soto $11
1B – Gaby Sanchez $17
2B – Aaron Hill $13
3B – Pablo Sandoval $24
SS – Alex Gonzalez $3
MI – Clint Barmes $6
CI – Ryan Zimmerman $26
OF – Jay Bruce $27
OF – Tony Campana $5
OF – Jason Kubel $10
OF – Laynce Nix $0 (free round)
OF – Justin Upton $36
U – Gerardo Parra $1
Bench – Stephen Lombardozzi $0 (free round)
Bench – Chase d’Arnaud $0 (free round)
Bench – Tony Gwynn $0 (free round)
Bench – Brett Jackson $4

P – Trevor Cahill $10
P – Daniel Hudson $19
P – Anibal Sanchez $14
P – Ricky Nolasco $4
P – Juan Nicasio $4
P – Chris Narveson  $1
P – Aaron Harang $2
P – Javy Guerra $11
P – Luke Gregerson $8
Bench – Brad Lidge $0 (free round)
Bench – Brandon Lyon $0 (free round)
Bench – Travis Wood $0 (free round)

THAT’S NOT SAGNOF… THIS IS SAGNOF!

Saves and steals were going for really high prices.  Marmol, who I like, went for $18 (a price I don’t like him at), Axford went for $18, Madson at $19… The list goes on; I won’t bore you (further).  So we overpaid for Gregerson praying he would sneak some saves and we have Guerra.  Um, blech.  We’ll need to acquire some saves off waivers or in a trade, which is totally doable, so there’s that.  For those with an advanced degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston, Kenley Jansen went for $8, but it was early in the draft and we didn’t know we’d be hamstrung without saves.  Yes, in hindsight, the right move would’ve been to get Jansen, but then we would’ve been paying $19 for all of the Dodgers saves, which is kinda absurd.  As for the other half of SAGNOF, our team felt pretty lead-footed so we grabbed Campana to kill those cockroaches.  With only the crap-oika of Byrd, Soriano and DeJesus ahead of him, ABs should be had.  At $5, if he gets 25 steals, he’s a bargain.  To back up that gamble, we invested in Brett Jackson.  When he is called up, we’ll be a strong bargaining chip or we just insert him in our lineup over, say, Laynce Nix.

RICKY NOLASCO IS A FRIEND OF RAZZBALL? OH, HELLS NO

As kinda alluded to in the lede, in a league this deep, you’re not going to have a team where you like all the guys.  Maybe I’ll grow to like Nolasco, but at $4 we just need him to have 150 Ks and an ERA south of 4.50.  I kinda hate his guts though, so I hope that hatred doesn’t manifest itself into self-fulfilling prophecy where he gives us a 7.50 ERA.  Aaron Harang isn’t really a friend of Razzball either, but you know what makes up for all of this?  Sweet, sweet Anibal!  (Please let his shoulder be okay.  Thank you, whoever I’m addressing right now.)

“YOU ALWAYS TELL US NOT TO TAKE BENCH BATS.  WHAT GIVES YOU, GOOFTARD?!”

It’s a deep, weekly league and we need some flexibility when the best bat on waivers is Henry Blanco.  For most of you, you don’t need four bench bats, three of which are in the minors.  In very deep leagues, you should take some bench bats.  A 12 team, mixed league isn’t a very deep league.  How do you know when you’re in a deep league?  When you’re looking at starting Rico Suave in your Utility spot.

IN OCTOBER, I HAVE AN APPOINTMENT FOR SEX WITH JAY BRUCE

I hope.  Or I’m gonna wanna kill him, because as mentioned in the podcast and multiple times on the site, people are lower than I am on Bruce this year and I’m getting him everywhere.  I mean, like, everywhere everywhere.  I may end up with him on an AL-Only team.  Why are people down on Bruce?  I’m confounded in my perplexatude!  (Perplexatude isn’t yet a word, but I’m gonna start a grassroots campaign to try to change that.)  Bruce just came off a great year and he’s still young.  What, you people need me to shine a flashlight on him like how Ron Roenicke gets Nyjer Morgan’s attention?

Sergio Santos was traded to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina, no relation to Alfred.  Santos will take over the Blue Jays closing job with Frank Francisco being waved away like a stale fart — Stank Fartcisco, if you will.  Santos was made for this job.  He’s a cyborg.  A cyborg of Ks who was sent here from the future to save games and to dance to the club remix of O Canada.  Only wish he wasn’t traded so less people would be aware of him and he’d come as a bargain in 2012 fantasy drafts.  Alas, he’s still gonna be worth a high (for a closer) draft pick.  Last year he had 92 Ks in 63 1/3 IP.  Who are you, Carlos Marmol?  I love you, Santos, now have my babies and then name them something with a K.  Like Klancy or Kasey or Keith.  Anyway, here’s some more moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell – Signed with the Miami Marlins to replace Juan Carlos Oviedo, who wants to know why the Florida Marlins can change their name but he can’t.  Heath Bell will be a capable closer that I may or may not have on my fantasy teams, depending on where he’s drafted.  I think he’ll probably be too rich for my blood.  If I get a transfusion, I’ll revisit him.

Luke Gregerson – As of right now he’s going to be the Padres closer.  His K-rate was about as ugly as it gets for relievers.  Easily the worst K-rate for a successful reliever. (No data was shifted through to verify this, but he had a 5.50 K-rate; that’s egregious.  Or Egregerson, if you will.)  Does any of this matter if Gregerson’s on the board late and he’s still the closer in March (the Padres might get someone else or change their minds; it’s their prerogative)?  Nah, I’d draft Gregerson on every team of mine if he’s the closer.

Jon Rauch – Is anyone changing teams besides relievers?  C’mon, Pujols and Fielder, sign already!  For now, we have Rauch to talk about.  Yay.  He signed with the Mets to set-up in the 8th inning and reach things off of high shelves.

Frank Francisco – Hey, it’s Stank Fartcisco!  Long time no hear from.  The Mets brass, “Francisco and Rauch were so good in Toronto last year, let’s get them to close out our wins!”  Janitor overhearing them, “They weren’t good.”  Mets brass, “Hey, Janitor, you wanna manage the team?”  Janitor, “I am.  I’m Terry Collins.”  Mets brass, “Who?”  I’d be more than willing to draft Francisco since he’ll be getting saves, but it won’t be pretty.  I guarantee at least five times during 2012 you’ll hear me say, “Rauch is now the closer.”  Then a week later I’ll say, “Francisco’s the closer.”  Then a week after that I’ll say, “Hey, whatever happened to Bobby Parnell?”

Angel Pagan – Was traded to the Giants for Andres Torres (and Ramon Ramirez).  This trade happens in your fantasy league when two owners grow bored and trade apples for apples.  Neither of these apples are delicious.

Joe Saunders – Stays with the Diamondbacks.  NL West hitters rejoice.

Aaron Harang – The Harangutan brings his ugly mug to the Dodgers.  These are the times when I’m glad I don’t have to do Alyssa Milano’s job of sleeping with every Dodgers player.

Nate McLouth – Goes back to Pittsburgh.  Pirates obviously want to put together a McOutfield.  First one between Tabata and Presley to add Mc gets the starting gig.  There hasn’t been a complete McOutfield since the Federal League’s Boston Bogtrotters in 1915.

Matt Capps – Resigns with the Twins.  Member when Nathan signed with the Rangers and you asked me, “Grey, que paso?  Donde es Twins closer ahora?”  And I said, “Shut the SAP button off your computer.”  Good times we had.  Any hoo!  Capps will be the closer in Minny until he turds up their games and Gardenhire starts picking his bullpen scab.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – Signed by the Dodgers.  First Harang and now Hairston Jr.!  Dodgers look like they’re putting together a team using Groupons.

Kendrys Morales – Has been swinging aggressively and jogging on a weightless treadmill.  Looks like NASA’s got their first baseman!  In the moon league that Kendrys is training for, when you celebrate a game-winning home run, you gently fall down to home plate.

Kevin Slowey – To the Rockies.  That’s like dressing up Tina Turner as a piñata and inviting her to a quinceañera.

Dmitri Young – Lost 70 pounds and wants to get back into baseball.  The last time that much excess Young weight was lost was when the Twins traded Delmon to the Tigers.

Aroldis Chapman – Sounds like he won’t be in the rotation again in 2012.  Him and Joba should commiserate about how their clubs are totally Mr. Bungling their careers and costing them millions.

Bryce Harper – I already went over my Bryce Harper 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while receiving shock therapy.  Since then the Nats said he might be the starting right fielder out of camp.  If I may read between the lines, what they actually said was, “We are not having Harper start out of camp, but we’d sure like to sell some tickets to our home games in April besides the ones Strasburg is pitching.”

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

This is it, fellas and three girl readers. The last train is leaving the station. The giddy has just about got up and went. It’s your last chance and I’d throw every single pitcher, not just the ones I have listed here if it meant the difference in my league. You need to do what you do. The line for last week was 5.02 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 Ks and 5 Wins in 77 IP.  Um, that’s hideous.  If I were to remove Eveland, Huff and Lincoln, ERA would drop to 3.52.  So most the damage was done by three guys.  Still, blech.  Let’s see if I can avoid recommending Lincoln for a third week!  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%. These streamers are in no particular order. Also, in the final days of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 23rd

Carl Pavano – Against the Indians this year, he’s been a Pava…yes.  See what I did there?  Spectacular!

Rick Porcello – The deal right now, in these last few days of September, is go big or go home or don’t go big and don’t go home.  In other words, you have to decide if you need to start a whole mess of guys to try and win, or if you can coast like the Phils.  Don’t fully trust Porcello but he’s better than some other schmohawks.

R.A. Dickey – He hasn’t been bad in two months and he gets the playoff-bound Phils.  I do tend to shy away from knuckleballers with Dickey being one.  (Must’ve been so hard for him growing up with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  I imagine it’s hard for anyone under the age of 45 to be a knuckleballer.  Knuckleballers don’t exactly pull the girls.  Or maybe they don’t pull girls so that’s why they become knuckleballers.  Deep thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Brett Myers – I nearly put Drew Pomenranz here too (his opponent).  One million ways to stream, choose one.

Aaron Harang – A few pitchers I liked for today were left off because they were just above 50% owned.  Basically, every pitcher on this Friday is a good spot start.

Saturday, September 24th

Cory Luebke – As good as Friday was for spot starters, Saturday’s that bad.  For full disclosure, I nearly suggested Jerome Williams, but then I thought about Jerome Williams and I decided nah.  Not a capital nah or a no way, just a small quiet nah.

Sunday, September 25th

Mike Minor – Not great matchups today either.  I mean, there’s some good pitchers going but they’re owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Minor’s at least good for some Ks.  BTW, this start could change if the Braves have already clinched.  Then Detwiler’s start vs them wouldn’t look as bad.

Edwin Jackson – Gave me a pretty lousy start last time he appeared in the borderline starter post (5 IP, 5 ER), but I’m a glutton for punishment.  Not gluten, gross.

Monday, September 26th

Randall Delgado – Will be a bit dependent on where the Braves are in the playoff race, but whether they’re in it or out of it, they’re going against the Phils who have packed it up.

Randy Wells – Only because he goes against the Padres in Petco.  On a related note, what are the Cubs doing in San Diego at the end of the season?  I can only imagine how well this would’ve went down if the Cubs were in the playoff chase… Okay, as hard as that is to imagine.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s only listed here because he was under 50% owned when I wrote this up.  I imagine by Monday he won’t be under 50% anymore.  He might not even be by today.

Jason Vargas – Him and McCarthy go against each other.  I don’t stream two pitchers in the same game, but chances are McCarthy will be gone and Vargas could throw a decent game, as well.

Tuesday, September 27th

Jeanmar Gomez – Sounds like a Swedish Latino, doesn’t he?  Swexicano?  Not the greatest of matchups with Gomez going against the Tigers if it wasn’t for the fact the Tigers will be resting for the playoffs.

Wednesday, September 28th

R.A. Dickey – Look at me, double dipping on Dickey this week.  That’s what she said!  Though I’m not sure why she would say that.  It’s not like it would reflect well on her.

Eric Surkamp – Unlike previous years, the Rockies folded up their blankets and checked out in August.  If Surkamp’s gone, I’d look at his opponent, Pomeranz, simply because the Giants aren’t that good.

Brett Myers – The last day of the season is actually a great day to stream pitchers.  Hitters take the last day off, managers bring in Triple-A hitters just to give them a chance to play, people check out, basically.

Brad Peacock – Thankfully, he’s not facing Dickey on the last day of the season because then my head would’ve exploded.  The one on my shoulders.