Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, I went over some fantasy baseball hitters to grab. Today, we look at some below the radar pitchers. (Of course, it depends on your league size on whether these schmohawks are above or below the radar. As that cliché goes, your trash is someone else’s wife.) If I were you, this would probably be a very helpful post for me. Why, Grey? Please explain. Okay, general reader of this site, I don’t draft pitching high in any league. My first pitcher off the board in one ‘pert league was Aaron Harang. Nuts, you say? Nuts indeed. And this was a fifteen team league, so you can imagine the slim pickings on waivers. Well, currently I’m at a 13 in ERA, 11 in WHIP and a 14 in saves. Wins have been a pain at 5.5 and I’m at 7 in Ks. (Honestly, I’ve seen that the least read posts on this site have been about the leagues Rudy and I are in, so I won’t bore you much longer, just bear with me.) So you’re thinking Harang first? Hmm… You must’ve had some kick-ass 2nd and 3rd and 4th pitchers off the board. 2nd pitcher was Rich Hill, 3rd Wainwright, 4th Edinson Volquez, then Chuck James and that’s it. Seriously, I should be in last place with that pitching staff. But I’ve ridden hard and put away wet Jorge Campillo, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Buerhle and an array of spot starters. Then very recently I traded for Big Z to try and close the Ks and Wins a bit. So, as you see, pitching can be had in deep leagues, you just need to know where to look. Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball pitchers to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Jorge Campillo - Probably gone by this time, but I told you to get Campillo in May. If your trigger finger is like Don Knotts in The Shakiest Gun in the West, this is not my fault. (BTW, In the same post, I told you to stay away from VMart. Zapow!)

Jeremy Guthrie - Again, he’s probably gone by now, but I told you to get him when Rich Hill and Gallardo collapsed on May 4th.

Braden Looper - Bad July, but he’s been consistently good one month then bad for one month for the whole year. ERAs respectively from April — 3.86, 6.37, 2.92, 4.82 and so far 2.57 in August. Does this make any logical sense? Yours is not to reason why, yours is to start Looper and hope he drives in Pujols.

Gil Meche - When you look at his numbers in November, you’ll think about how his season wasn’t that great. Well, this would be true, but he can be good for two months in the middle of a lame season. He’s in the middle of those two months.

Ricky Nolasco - 13 K game the other day probably snatched him off of waivers in every league, but in case it didn’t, here’s Nolasco. Now who are you gonna call? Maroone!

Matt Garza - Has this every other start thing going where he’s good in one start then poor in the next. If he stays true to it, you can make it work for you. Stay true, Garza, stay true… And I’ll start you… There’s a country ditty for ya’ll.

SELL

Paul Maholm - This guy is showing up on a lot of people’s “I’m a ‘pert and I’m telling to get this guy” list. Phooey to them. It’s effin’ Paul Maholm, people! Unless I’m looking at him in an NL-Only league, I’m yawnstipated.

Jamie Moyer - He threw a pitch last week that just made it to the catcher.

Armando Galarraga - On my tombstone it will say, “I told you I was ill. And don’t pickup Armando Galarraga.”

Oliver Perez - Here’s the thing with Ollie Perez, he can absolutely wreck havoc on your ratios. Bah!

Jeff Karstens - Ha! Seriously. Ha! Here’s a rule of thumb for you, for those that like thumb rules: Pirates pitchers should not be picked up until they have shown they can pitch well for an entire year.

Nick Blackburn - His K rate is abysmal for the last month or so. I could list more reasons, but trust me, that’s reason enough to look away.

Aaron Cook - I told you I would warn you when I got out. Consider yourself warned, boyz!

Dave Bush - This is one Bush I will not have a hand in.

Sometimes getting to the World Series takes more than just talent.  Sometimes it takes a little psychological machinations to make it happen.  Sabathia brings the Brewers a talented co-ace with Sheets (bit of advice:  Sabathia was gassed at the end of the year - let him pitch a few 6 inning starts).  Durham provides them a motivational cattle prod for Rickie Weeks to step it up. The Brewers can say this was all about improving their depth but, really, do they make this trade if Weeks wasn’t hitting .216?  And it’s not like the Brewers are unafraid to make midseason adjustments.  Remember when they traded for F-Cord after Turnbow started to Turnbad? For his sake (and his FLB owners), Weeks better get hitting. When you think you can win the pennant, you put egos and reputations on ice. Remember the 1996 Yanks?  They were starting Charlie Hayes and Cecil Fielder over Wade Boggs and Tino Martinez at times. It’s all about production. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell - Coughed up 3 ER in 1 IP. The other day 4 ER in 1 IP. Bud Black realizes the pain felt by San Diego that comes with every Trevor Hoffman 9th inning blown save so he’s now taught Heath Bell how to blow saves in the 7th or 8th.

St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus is hitting .284 and hits HRs every day.  Aaron Miles just went 3-for-5 with 3 runs and 4 RBI.  Let’s put it this way - if Larussa had the dice in his hand at a Craps table, I’m putting all my chips on the Come line.

Tim Lincecum - 6 IP, 5 ER. When walking outside in SF make sure you keep an eye on the sky, Lincecum’s falling to earth. And there’s nothing worse than getting Lincecum falling in your face. (And that’s a different Come line.)

Aaron Cook - Notched his 12th victory with 7 IP, 3 ER and an under one WHIP. I cannot believe I still have this schmohawk on my team in a ten team league, but he’s been better than I expected. I think the way he pitched in the All-Star game really showcased what he does best — get guys to groundout.

Kelly Shoppach - Now with 8 HRs…one for every million unhappy V-Mart fantasy baseball drafters.

Brian Wilson - A one inning Kazaam outing with 2 ER.  Wilson owners do not smile.  Some even make pet sounds.

Jaime Garcia - Gave up a home run to Cha Seung Baek. Cha Seung Baek you’ve just won a new Hyundai! Garcia is high on walks, decent Ks, very young. Deep league flier and matchups — like yesterday against the Padres, which didn’t turn out that swell. See first sentence of this entry.

Jose Guillen - Out of the starting lineup since the All-Star break with back spasms but contributed on Sunday with a SB and run in a pinch-hitting gig.  Assuming he doesn’t throw a tantrum and hurt himself, he should be a go in the next day or so.  Given he only has 1 RBI in his last 8 starts, keep him on the bench if you have a safer option.

Brandon Lyon - Two straight bad outings. This time, he spared Haren and took out his wrath on Webb.  Who misses Valverde?

Austin Kearns - 3-for-5 and scored 5 times in the rout against Atlanta, finally giving fantasy owners (all 16 of them) the right type of runs.

Mark Teixeira - 2 HRs in a losing cause.  Speak of losing causes, when are the Braves going to trade him?  Maybe the White Sox?

Jacoby Ellsbury - 0-for-5. The law firm of Jacoby Ellsbury just got served (you’re on your own figuring out that mixed metaphor). About .250 over the last two months, which I’d accept if he were stealing bags. He has one in July and it came on the first day of the month.

Edinson Volquez - 5 IP, 4 ER and he actually got lucky or there would’ve been more earned runs. You can’t say I didn’t warn you that the end of the brilliance was near.

Scott Baker - 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8 Ks and was outpitched by Vicente Padilla who moved to 11-5. When a reporter asked Padilla if he thought he had a shot at 20, Padilla began to cackle at the absurdity of the thought. Latest reports confirm that he is still cackling.

Erik Bedard - Bedard out until August. Glass is half full, that’s only ten days away. Half empty, soon he’ll be out for the season.

Roy Oswalt - To the 15-day DL with a hip abductor strain. I wanted someone to take us through this to better understand how quickly Oswalt could return, so I asked the one person I know with hip problems. Grey’s Grandma, “A hip abductor strain? I think that’s the same thing Milldred got when she shouted Bingo. Supposedly, she didn’t even really have Bingo. She thought the Father said B-4, but he said “before.” Real shame to get something like a hip injury on a falsie. Have you seen my reading glasses? I put them next to the TV Guide and now I can’t find them. I wanted to do the crossword.”

Late Sunday night, C.C. Sabathia was traded to the Brewers for the power-hitting prospect, Matt LaPorta. Since a 7.76 ERA in April, Sabathia has put up a 2.44 and a 1.90 in May and June respectively. In May and June, he had a 85/15 K/BB ratio. In interleague, 4 ER is 23 IP. However you look at the numbers, Fatty Fat Fat can pitch. In NL-only leagues, you drop your whole wad to acquire him. If your wad isn’t big enough, you trade to acquire Sabathia, if you need pitching. There’s no reason to think he’ll be anything less than dominant moving into the NL, unless Prince talks Sabathia into his new diet plan. Fielder, “Do you know the amount of trans fat in McDonald’s hamburgers?” Sabathia, “Nuh-uh. But I hope it’s a lot!” Now the Brewers just need to hire a bench coach to make sure Prince and Sabathia are never sitting on the same side of the bench. Oh, wait, I know who can do it — Seth McClung. He likely loses his rotation spot, but if that hurts your fantasy team, you got bigger problems. As for Matt LaPorta, he’s a power-hitting outfielder who should get the call up to the majors sooner rather than later. He was pegged as a three-outcome guy, see Dunn, Adam. It looks like he cut his Ks this year so maybe he’ll only be a two-outcome guy. Mmm…. walks and homers. That sounds delicious. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

J.J. Hardy - Hit two more home runs yesterday. Four weeks a year, J.J. Hardy reminds me of a young Miguel Tejada. Twenty weeks of the year, he reminds me of a muy stale Tecate. Imagine you’re a teacher and four weeks a year you teach the students well, knowing they are the future and blah-diddy, blah blah, then for the rest of the school year you just phone it in… Actually, now that I think about it, most of my teachers didn’t even make an effort four weeks a year. Well, there goes that argument. I suppose in many ways it’s better that Hardy gets all of his prodcution out of the way, now you can trade him in three weeks and get someone who will continue to produce.

Scott Linebrink - Got the save yesterday. As Hater Bell pointed out on Saturday, Bobby Jenks is hurting a bit right now and is no guarantee to be fine. He may be out until the All-Star Break. If you consider yourself a save vulture, this is old news. Go take a nap!

Cody Ross - Knocked in something like 55 runs in the four game series in Coors. Meanwhile, back on earth, the Marlins are looking to trade for a center fielder. That’s right; Cody Ross’s 15 home runs are so quiet his team doesn’t even know about them.

Juan Rivera - Mentioned him last week as a guy that could get hot and hit 15 to 20 home runs. He currently has 2 home runs; yesterday he hit his second of the week. (BTW, because I type with two fingers, yesterday is a super easy word to type. My WPM would probably be close to 60 if someone asked me to transcribe “Yesterday.” Since it seems like a pointless exercise and I don’t like The Beatles, I wouldn’t do it unless the money was right, which brings me to my reality show idea, Insipid Proposal. It’s Indecent Proposal for the easily entertained. You offer someone a penny to walk around the block. If they refuse, you raise the amount of money until they accept. I didn’t think they’d walk around the block for less than a dollar, but, wow, sixty-five cents! This show isn’t about skill, it’s about inanity. Now someone needs to make this happen.)

Oliver Perez - Perez and Kyle Kendrick in a pitcher’s duel? That’s why they play the games.

Nick Markakis - He is Sparkakis! 13th HR of the year and Markakis is a 2nd half player. Well, guess what? It’s the 2nd half.

Edinson Volquez - Got the win yesterday with 6 IP, 3 ER and only 3 Ks against the Nats. This shouldn’t be viewed as a good start. I’d still be selling.

Evan Longoria - 16th HR, he’s looking 2/3 Braun and only 1/3 Gordon or Ryan Braundon.

Chris Volstad - The Marlins pitching prospect was called up the other day and threw two innings of middle relief yesterday. Volstad will get the start on the 11th against the Dodgers. In a keeper league and an NL-only league, Volstad probably is gone by now. If I had room in a deep mixed league or if Yahoo adds him before the 11th (<—doubtful!), I’d take a flier, but keep expectations in check. Personally, he strikes me as Derek Lowe — third starter stuff.

Aaron Cook - I benched him in the one league I have him because the Broncos-Fins games the previous three days were out of control on offense. Cook ended up throwing 7 1/3 IP and 7 ER, but it would’ve been five if not for Cody Ross’s home run in the 8th. Everywhere you look, there Cody is.

Nate Robertson - 9 IP, 1 ER, one God-awful Mariners lineup.

Jon Garland - Garland a Tinseltown success! 9 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks in under 100 pitches. I actually yawned when I wrote that. Then again, it’s after 10pm on Sunday and I’m not really a night person. Not so much a morning person either. I’m an afternoon person. After 2pm and before 5pm, I’m pure razzle-dazzle.

Michael Bourn - Had an 0-for-7 yesterday with 3 Ks. I’m surprised how little the mainstream media is covering this, but Bourn’s actually putting together a tremendous Razzball season. 38/4/15/.218/76 Ks. He’s no Tony Pena Jr., but it’s nothing to sneeze at. (Not to mention, if you were to sneeze at him, from the way his season is going he’d probably get pneumonia from your sneeze germs.)

There’s probably more relevant fantasy baseball stories that could’ve been the lead for today’s post, but guess what? I love me some suffering of others. Honestly, I would’ve named the site schadenfreude-ball.com, but I thought that would cause this blog to be a hotbed of lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes. (Personally, I have no problem with either, but when Google indexes you, it’s important you are in no way connected to lederhosen or Wiener schnitzel. I believe it goes back to the Potsdam Conference. BTW, for those history buffs out there, I got a kick out of this in Wikipedia, “In March 1945, Finland declares war on Germany.” In case anyone doesn’t follow, Hitler killed himself in April 1945. Way to step up, Finland. They’re like the defensive replacement that comes into the ninth inning of game seven of a championship game. They get to celebrate, but you know they didn’t do anything. Finland is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I digress.) So, with The Love Guru bombing and Brett sent down, July 2008 was a bad month to be a Myers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Cain - Okay, full disclosure. I have Matt Cain on one of my teams and he’s been sitting on the bench for a majority of the season, but I’m holding him because I think he can be better. Yesterday, he was better. 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 Ks.

Chipper Jones - Avoided the DL. Yesterday I said, it looked like Chipper was headed to the DL. I didn’t Celebracadabra this shizz out of thin air. Manager Bobby Cox said he was shocked Jones didn’t hit the DL. Honestly, if you’re in Reno and there’s even odds for Chipper going on the DL, you double down. And don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Troy Percival - Back to the DL and it wasn’t Wheeler last night for the save… It was Balfour! True, what? I am a True Fushnick! It’s fantasy baseball that I kick. But it was Balfour because Wheeler had gone three days in a row. Wheeler will get the majority of the saves going forward. You want a limb? How’s this — Wheeler gets more saves than Percival in the 2nd half.

Jeff Kent - HR last night. Why can’t he get more home runs in the 2nd half than he got in the first? Cause he’s 40. Well, yeah, but I think he’s too stubborn to totally suck. He has nine home runs right now. I think he gets 12 more. Wow, 12 more! Can I drop Ryan Howard now?! Well, ain’t you smart. Kinsler/Phillips both only had 13 in the 1st half. So 12’s something.

John Danks - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks, he reminds me of a manadrin orange. It looks all weird and shizz, but when you taste it, it tastes fine. That’s Danks. You look at him and his name looks all weird and you don’t trust him then you start him and he’s fine.

Aaron Cook - Double A *beep beep* C-O-O-K. Okay, more disclosure, I’ve had him on a team for two months now. That’s two months longer than I ever thought I’d have Aaron Cook on a team. Whatevs. For a fourth starter on a fantasy team, you can do a lot worse. *cough* Pedro *cough*

Alex Gordon - Guess who’s turning it on? Seriously, guess. Why wouldn’t you guess Alex Gordon?! This question was right next to his name. What, you don’t want to succeed? Success scares you? Gordon, 3 HRs in last week.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 Ks. No walks, which is a great sign. I told someone not to start him yesterday against the Sox. I also read the Michael J. Fox autobiography, Lucky Man: A Memoir. Twice. Sometimes you need to zig when I’m zagging.

Mariano Rivera - Kazaam!

J.J. Hardy - 2 HRs and over .450 in the last 7 games. He hit 15 home runs in two months last year. He can get hot. Recognize!

David Wright - 16th HR yesterday. 3 HRs in the last 7 games. He’s soooooo perfect. Like OJ Simpson in the 70s.

Todd Wellemeyer - My fifth starter has a second name it’s something-something-M-E-Y-E-R and has now given up 14 runs in 13.1 innings.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 1 ER. Still no sign of aging on Dorian Gray’s face.

Miguel Cabrera - Pinch hit, which is a good sign if people were worried about him heading to the DL.

Rafael Furcal - Officially pulling a Kotchman. After his first minor league game, his back hurt. Something tells me we may not see Furcal again for a while and he may not do anyone any good when he does return.

Jorge Cantu - Hasn’t a hit a HR since June 12th. I get no pleasure in seeing him struggle because I have him on two teams. Damn! I should’ve went with lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes.

Adam Lind - Way back in April, I grabbed Lind. Turned out bad like the last two seasons of 24, so I dropped him. Now he’s back and hitting. I just dropped Melky for him in one league. I love Melky’s name; I hate what Melky does to my team.

Joe Borowski - After the game, Eric Wedge said, “I thought he pitched well, they just got lucky.” After the interview, the Indians put Wedge’s name in the hat for Emmy consideration.

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano - On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ‘08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley - Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis - Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker - Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto - On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger - I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles - Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes - Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham - It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy - I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda - He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew - With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders - I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook - Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan - I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!