Fantasy Baseball Advice

In our ongoing schmohawk series where I breakdown overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball, I’ve gone into depth on some of these guys.  I decided to also take a lookie-loo at Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Pick board and grab ten players that I thought were overrated from their top 81.  If MDC could talk, I think even it would agree that some of these draft picks make no sense.  If you click on a player’s name, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these schmohawks.  Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – ADP — 13.  Last year, his homers were bonkers for him.  He’s a catcher with a bad back.  Leave him to the autodrafters.

Mark Reynolds – ADP — 20.  Are people seriously drafting a guy that breaks the strikeout record every year in the 2nd round?  Rhetorical!

Victor Martinez – ADP — 22.  At 1st base, this makes no sense.  At catcher, it makes less sense.

Jason Bay – ADP — 25.  I’m hoping Reyes will come back soon, but right now Bay’s hitting behind Wright, Lousy Castillo and Angel Pagan and in front of Daniel Murphy.  Bay anywhere near 25 is fjord’ing crazy.

Pablo Sandoval – ADP — 39.  I’m guessing drafters reach for Sandoval due to The Great 3rd Basemen Drought of 2010.  My Chase Headley projections are 70/20/85/.290/10, Sandoval’s projections are 80/24/95/.315/4.  Cust kayin’.

Aaron Hill – ADP — 50.  Last year’s overrated guys (namely Hamilton) were causing people to send death threats to the site.  This year Aaron Hill could knock up your 17-year-old sister and you wouldn’t care that much.  Not sure why, but this year there’s a pretty boring group of overrated guys.  Should give people more reason to ignore them.  Alas…

Javier Vazquez – ADP — 59.  Unless Keith Law has been doing hundreds of mock drafts, this ADP is baffling.  Last time he pitched in NY, he had a 4.91 ERA.  That was pre-Jetstream.

Manny Ramirez – ADP — 62.  When he was younger, his insouciance (Word of the Day!) was cute and didn’t mess with his game.  Yeah, insouciance doesn’t age well.

Aramis Ramirez – ADP — 61.  I have him 30 spots lower on my top 100.  I thought about dropping him another 10 or so spots when I thought about how he has no speed and hasn’t hit over 30 homers since 2006.

Billy Butler – ADP — 81.  November Grey thought about doing a Butler sleeper post, but now I think Butler’s in sleeper sell territory. He doesn’t bring that much to the table. Unless we’re talking about the dinner table.

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80′s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the player’s name to read more about them and to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jay Bruce – Bruce is actually a good case study for someone who wants to see how long it takes a player to go from being a hyped rookie to actually producing.  Bruce burst on the scene in 2008, then bust on the scene in 2009 and now can actually start producing.

Nolan Reimold – If Reimold takes the Bruce route, it might not be until 2011 for Reimold.  But, like the secret Secret Recipe, Reimold has more seasoning.  (I’m a fried chicken conspiracy nut!)

Corey Hart – Hart isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch, but, if he can stay healthy, he’s a good bet for 20/20.

Dexter Fowler - I’m going to ignore that Baseball Prospectus’s most comparable player for Fowler is Paul Householder because even before the subprime mortgage crisis let Paul down, he was not a household name.  (See what I did there?  That shizz was like butterflies in your ears!)  Here’s my limb:  in 2011, Dexter’s going to be a top 20 outfielder.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus ties together any outfield you’ve drafted like a Tony LaRussa scarf ties together a fur coat and a polyester shirt.

Travis Snider – Cheap homers late with the chance for cheap lots of homers.  And he has the same neck as this guy.

Jason Heyward – Caveats:  rookies usually crash and burn; it’s probably a year too early for Heyward.  Caveats aside, my man can hit!  Ride that donkey-donkey!

Austin Jackson – If his name were Joe Smith, no one would know who he was.  He has a shot to be the leadoff hitter and every day player.  Jordan Schafer had that shot last year for the Braves, too.  Doesn’t mean everything, but Jackson’s worth the flier.

Kyle Blanks – As long as the Padres don’t fly Southwest Airlines, Blanks should near 30 homers.

Julio Borbon – I know saying this is kinda like yelling fire in a crowded theater, but I think Borbon is Ellsbury 20 rounds later.  Zoinks!

Brett Gardner – Rudy has Gardner at 75/4/38/.266/36 in 440 ABs.  He concedes that he thinks the ABs might be bullish and the average could be worse.  The runs also seem like they’re on the high side in that projection.  But notice one stat we’re not tempering — steals.  (“No Tempering” sounds like an unreleased TLC song.)  Gardner’s a $4 player with $21 of it in stolen base value.  As in, he’d be worth -$17 in a mixed, 12 team leagues if he had no speed.

Cameron Maybin – If he can get healthy, he might get into the two hole.  That always worked for Tom Cruise.

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

There’s no Reyes, Rollins or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2010 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.