Fantasy Baseball Advice

It feels like yesterday the baseball regular season started.  You wrote “I heart baseball” in permanent marker on your arm, then you met a girl who wrote “I heart guys who heart baseball” on her arm, then, during sex in September, you screamed out “I love you, Tulo!” and now you don’t have baseball or your girlfriend.  C’mon, calender, make like a soldier and turn to March.  The only cure for the post-baseball season blues — recapping the preseason top twenty lists and being hand-fed Doritos.  First up, Cool Ranch and our preseason Top 20 Catchers for 2010.   It’s important to look back before we look ahead to 2011.  To paraphrase the one and only B-Real, “How do you know where you’re at, if you don’t know where you’ve been?  Understand where I’m coming from?”  It wouldn’t be fair for me to preseason rank the players then rank them again in the postseason based on my opinion, so these postseason top 20 lists are ranked according to ESPN’s Player Rater.  It may not be wholly accurate, but it’s wholly unbiased.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

1. Joe Mauer – I predicted the homers would come down.  Literally.  Only I didn’t think they’d fall as far as they did.  It was the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome factor that I just couldn’t fully know back in January.  Mauer ended up number one and I’d contend he was still overrated and will be so again next March.  Certain guys just get a pass from the fantasy community because they seem likable or have can’t-put-your-finger-on-it-ness. Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3, Final Numbers:  88/9/75/.327/1

2. Victor Martinez – V-Mart’s age still hasn’t caught up with him (sorta pun!), but I think, in retrospect, we’re going to look back at this season as the beginning of the end for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300, Final Numbers:  64/20/79/.302/1

3. Buster Posey – I ranked him 16th in the preseason and here he is 3rd.  The scary thing is, besides the average, I was pretty right on with his projections.  That means it was another yawnstipating year from catchers.  Preseason Rank #16, 2010 Projections:  55/14/65/.290/3, Final Numbers:  58/18/67/.305

4. Brian McCann – I love McCann, there I said it.  He gives you what I want from a catcher.  Good homers, decent RBIs and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere.  Much prefer that to Mauer’s MI-type catcher output.  Preseason Rank #2, 2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3, Final Numbers:  63/21/77/.269/5

5. John Buck – This was the most bang from your Buck since Midnight Cowboy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  53/20/66/.281

6. Mike Napoli – I Ron Popeil’d him in a few leagues and I’m glad I did.  Even it wasn’t for the Sciosciapath, he probably would’ve hit 30+ homers. Sure, the average wasn’t great, but, as I’ve said many times, since there’s fewer ABs from catchers, you’re fine with a guy like Napoli.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  60/19/70/.260/5, Final Numbers:  60/26/68/.238/4

7. Miguel Olivo – Well, I ranked Iannetta around here in the preseason and I told you to grab Olivo in April so I wasn’t completely Mr. Bungle on Olivo, but, considering his post-All-Star break numbers were egregious, I’d say his high ranking here is more about the state of catchers.  They’re really bad, ya’ll.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  30/16/45/.245, Final Numbers:  55/14/58/.269/7

8. Geovany Soto – Member when I told everyone to draft him?  Good times.  Or, more appropriately, okay times.  For a catcher, not bad times.  Here’s what I said at the Geovany Soto sleeper post last January, “Soto’s 2009 was off the charts unlucky.  His BABIP went from .337 in 2008 to .251 last year.  I.e. His average should come up to .270 levels.  His power was zapped because of a shoulder injury.  When he started to get healthy in June, he hit 6 homers that month.  Then an oblique injury sidelined him.  Bad luck followed by terrible luck.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #7, 2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280, Final Numbers:  47/17/53/.280

9. Carlos Ruiz – Honestly, if you jumped out of DeLorean and told me in the preseason Ruiz would be ranked this high and told me his final stats, I still wouldn’t have drafted him.  8 homers and no steals?  Who are you, Willy Aybar?  Ruiz was unranked, but he made the preseason catchers to target post.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  45/14/65/.260/3, Final Numbers:  43/8/53/.302

10. Jorge Posada – About two years ago, I jumped off the “Ever drafting Posada again” bandwagon and I’m never going back.  Too old, too tired, too effin’ blind.  Okay, maybe not the last one.  Preseason Rank #9, 2010 Projections:  50/17/75/.280, Final Numbers:  49/18/57/.248/3

11. A.J. Pierzynski – Looking back on these catchers makes me feel like Creighton on a New Orleans ferry.  A.J. was in the don’t draft tier along with Yadier and Suzuki and, looking back, I wouldn’t change a thing.  Preseason Rank #14, 2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.280, Final Numbers:  43/9/56/.270/3

12. Kurt Suzuki – I’d go as far to say Suzuki was actually better than A.J. because he was injured and you were getting stats from someone else while Suzuki was hurt, or, if you were really lucky, you just dropped him.  Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: 65/12/65/.270/6, Final Numbers:  55/13/71/.242/3

13. Yadier Molina – His numbers are even more yawnstipating than Crapolanco.  Preseason Rank #13, 2010 Projections:  40/7/55/.285/5, Final Numbers:  34/6/62/.262/8

14. Ramon Hernandez – Do you see a theme here?  Catchers were so bad, a guy who didn’t even play in 100 games or crack 10 homers is ranked this high.  If you take nothing else away from this post, please punt catchers next year.  Please.  Preseason Rank #20, 2010 Projections:  55/17/65/.265, Final Numbers:  30/7/48/.297

15. John Jaso – I’ve been looking at Jaso as a potential sleeper for next year, but I just don’t think his power or speed upside is great enough.  He might be “The Old Russell Martin (Or Maybe That’s A Young Russell Martin)” at best.  You know, the Martin that actually had value.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  57/5/44/.263/4

16. Yorvit Torrealba – If you owned Torrealba for longer than two months, you didn’t win your league.  There’s just no way.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  31/7/37/.271/7

17. Ryan Doumit – Chew on this:  If Yuniesky Betancourt were a catcher, he’d be ranked in the top ten.  Preseason Rank #15, 2010 Projections: 50/16/60/.280/3, Final Numbers:  42/13/45/.251/1

18. Rod Barajas – Ladies and gentlemen, I bring to you your 2010 fantasy baseball catchers.  They are the new blech.  2010 Projections:  Please/Don’t/Draft/Him, Final Numbers:  Do/You/Really/Care?

19. Miguel Montero – I’d say Wieters was the much, much bigger bust than Montero simply because Montero was injured for an extended stretch so you had a chance to get someone else’s numbers from him.  But, don’t get me wrong, Montero was a rather supersized disappointment too.  Preseason Rank #5, 2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.280, Final Numbers:  36/9/43/.266

20. Matt Wieters – Finally, the Billy Butler-sized bust.  As I practice my Saberhagenmetrics, Wieters will be on quite a few teams of mine next year.  Sucks if you got caught in the crossfire of his down year, but one bad season at 24-years-old doesn’t take his future shine off.  The Orioles could surprise next year.  Yeah, I said it!  And kinda mean it.  Though they’ll still only land in third or fourth place.  Preseason Rank #4, 2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305, Final Numbers:  37/11/55/.249

I’m relieving Grey this morning.  I’ve been in triple A for a while now.  Alex Gordon and I have struck up a pretty good friendship and on the bus rides we sing 99 bottles of beer on the wall, so I’m hoping I’ll just be in the majors for a little while.  I think we were going to have smores tomorrow!

While I’m on the team bus I have been keeping up with Razzball Football so make sure you stop on over.  NFL training camp is only three weeks away.  I just wet myself a little when I typed that. Oh, so here are some baseball tidbits –

Joey Votto could be the first player to win the triple crown and not be voted to the All-Star game and be named after a baby kangaroo.  After finding out that Charlie Manuel’s senility had caused him to check off Ryan Howard’s name for the All Star game instead of his, he decided to misplace his anger and question the umpire’s sexuality, his virility and his knowledge of the strike zone, which got him tossed in the first inning at Wrigley on a day that a home run hitter, or any player with arms larger than SpongeBob’s, would want to take a crack at the fences.  The ejection also ended his on base streak at 41 games.  Not the greatest day for Joey, but I think he’ll trudge on through.

Ricky Nolasco — His breakout season hasn’t quite broken out yet, but he struck out 11 Braves and got his 7th win.  He’s put together a couple of good starts in a row and I see a good second half in his future.

Shin-Soo Choo — Choo had been chugga chugga chuggin along during a good stretch of hitting before he hurt his thumb and now what was thought to not be serious, is the opposite, which is serious.  He sprained it and will be out 6-8 weeks.  Michael Brantley was called up and should get plenty of work, maybe enough for an extra helping of SAGNOF.

Torii Hunter — Two donks and 7 RBIs makes for two home runs and 7 runs batted in and a whole lotta offense as Hunter led the Angels over the Royals. He do what he do, be glad he can still do it.

Alexei Ramirez – His home run yesterday was in Texas, but he has been playing a little better.  If you own him you are hoping for his  patented second half to keep its patent.

Sean Rodriguez — SeanRod is 12 for his last 28 and hit a home run yesterday.  He’s a free swingin’ Studio 54 type, so start him while he’s hot, and see if he has any extra blow.

Corey Hart — I just missed grabbing Hart off of waivers early in the season and I’ve cried myself to sleep every night since.  Hart hit another home run to raise his total to 19 and he’s now hit in 19 in a row.  And I played I Wear My Sunglasses At Night 19 times in a row in reverence.

Cliff Lee — Lee failed in his attempt for his 4th consecutive complete game.  He still ended up going 8 innings, striking out 11 and securing his 8th win.  The dude has an odd career arch.

Drew Stubbs — The Cubs were Stubbed, Janished, Millered, Philliped and Gomed by the Reds, but Stubbs did the most last-named damage with three home runs.  Wrigley was a bandbox, whatever that is, with the wind blowing straight out and the temps around 90.  Votto had to be extra pissed.  I wouldn’t put too much into this outburst by Stubbs.  He ain’t horrible, but you won’t be seeing another 3 donker anytime soon.

Tyler Colvin — He also hit a couple into the Wrigley-stream, but I’m pretty sure Eddie Gaedel could have hit one out yesterday.  Colvin should continue to see at bats, but not everyday.  You’ll need to find a deep or NL league to roster him.

Pedro Alvarez — He’s hit a home run in his last two games.  That’s 2 total for all you math wizzes.  He may have figured something out or he may have gotten a bit lucky in his free swinging ways, but if you’ve got room I don’t see any reason not to make a small wager on him having figured something out.

Yovani Gallardo — He left the game with an oblique strain.  An oblique strain of what exactly, I’m not sure.  Just cross your fingers that it’s not ebola.  These kinds of injuries can linger for a pitcher so if you own him, hope he gets a bunch of rest.

Ubaldo Jimenez — He’s given up 17 runs in his last 17 innings pitched.  He’ll turn things around, but he’s a pitcher and if you traded him for an elite hitter before this slump, you are feeling pretty good right now.  If it was the other way around, stop your blubbering.

Dexter Fowler — Our serial killer of barnyard bird serial killers is back on track after being called up from AAA.  He got on base 7 times, which is more than a lot.  If he continues to lead off there is no reason to think he can’t be useful and by useful I mean, Rickey Henderson meets a young Alfonso Soriano.

Matt Joyce — On Saturday he hit a dramatic pinch-hit grand slam, which I have done many times in whiffle ball with ghost runners on.  Joyce is worth a roster spot in AL leagues and if he can get playing time he might be more than that.

Jim Thome – Mr. Incredible passed Harmon Killebrew for 10th on the all time home run list when he hit 2 home runs against the Rays on Saturday.  That’s 574 total. He’ll be able to hit a pinch hit home run at 50.

We are making a double switch today.  Rudy is taking the husband slot which will probably bench him for a few years; Grey is taking the best man slot that will put him in the reliever role and I’ll be taking the cleanup spot for today.  If I’m wearing a titanium sombrero after this, just remember Cinco De Mayo is closing in and I’m probably drunk. And while you’re reading the ramblings of a drunk man, you might as well go over to the nether regions of Razzball and check out my football ramblings.

My Mauer’s heel is my love for deep fried twinkies. Joe Mauer‘s is actually his heel.  Gardy says he is week to week, but now I’m hearing day to day, but any way you look at it a heel injury is tough on a catcher.  I don’t want to channel Grey and say I told you so, but I will if you cross me.  His home runs are down so far and with this bruised heel that number isn’t going to rise any time soon.  While you revel or despair in Joe Stud’s injury let’s take a look at some other happenings in the wide world of baseball:

Curtis Granderson — He’s been put on the DL with a grade 2 groin strain.  It wasn’t until grade 5 that my groin started straining.  Grandy could be out up to a month.  His replacement(s) aren’t going to help you since their names are Randy Winn and Marcus Thames and they’ll be splitting time.

Andre Ethier — With Matt Kemp’s blazing start Andre has been lost in the ether (see what I did there?).  With 4 donks in the last 3 games he doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.  If you’re at dinner with Andre, don’t order dessert just yet.

Johan Santana — The Phillies teed off on him in Philly last night.  Shizz happens.  It’s Utley, Howard and company and it’s in a mini-stadium.  Might as well send an offer or two out to see if you can pry him away from a disgruntled owner.

Alfredo Simon — I’m a big fan of his sauce and now of his SAGNOF, mmmmm SAGNOF.  Mike Gonzalez is still three weeks away from possibly, maybe, returning and Simon has pitched well.  Simon says, “pick me up!”

Zach Grienke — He continues to get Grienke’d but good.  In his last 85 starts, he has a 2.86 ERA in 540 innings with 32 wins.  His team’s offense hasn’t been God-awful this year, but they’re moving into that realm, which is where the middle relief has been dwelling.  Those two should have a good time continuing the Greinke’ng of Greinke.

Josh Beckett — Looks like he’s coming around.  Why were you worrying?

Justin Verlander — Look up at Beckett, check it.

Alex Gordon — He’s been optioned to AAA and that doesn’t come with all those perks like 10% off Motel 6 and the roadside assistance.  If you took a picture of Grey right now he’d look like the Native American after that jerk threw trash out the window.

Doug Fister — Fister got fisted by Aardsma and the end result was a hard core Greink’ng.  What’s this guy doing?  It’s hard to trust him, but you have to respect his results.  He’s loving Safeco where he has pitched 23 innings, given up 9 hits, 1 walk, and 1 earned run.  He is a prototype for a sell high, but if you can’t get anyone to bite, I’d stick with him at home and be careful on the road.

Edwin Jackson — Grey warned you and now I’m here to rub it in your face some more. (And mine too since I just dropped his arse.) I watched this last game against the Cubs and Ed couldn’t get the ball near the catcher’s glove, leaving pitches up and in all kinds of wheel houses.

Austin Jackson – Now this is a Jackson I can support! The kid just keeps on hitting and K’ng, but more hitting! He leads the league in hits with 41 and his average is pee eightch a tee.  He’s a sell high, just cuz, but he’s fun to watch!

Tom Gorzelanny — K’d the D-backs 10 times which is a career high. This would be great news for Tom if he wasn’t facing the free swinging D-backs.  He’s a spot starter at best, but if you have a schmohawk lefty you want to start against Arizona you have my blessing.

Alfonso Soriano — And you thought he was going to carve a permanent butt groove on your bench.  In his last 10 games Soriano has 5 HRs, 14 RBIs and six walks.  The walks are nice to see for the swing at every slider away Soriano.  As the dearly departed country singing sage Jerry Reed said, “when you’re hot you’re hot and when you’re not you’re not.”

Jimmy Rollins — He is still feeling tightness in his calf and should be out another 2 weeks.  Jimmy likes teasing you with a great start.  Jimmy wants you to suffer.  Jimmy blames Kramer for his injury.

Brian Roberts — His time table to return is looking worse than my times tables in the 3rd grade.  I have a  “7 x 8 = 56″ tattooed on the back of my hand.  There actually is no time table for his return.  You have to hold onto him, but try to forget he’s on your team.  It will be like finding a twenty dollar bill in your back pocket when he returns, or a nickel, depending on how he plays.

Stephen Strasburg — He’s been promoted to Triple-A and as soon as Livan Hernandez returns to his hometown of Schmoville it will once again burn your eyes to look at the Nat’s pitching stats, which in turn will get the S.S. Cy Young rigged and shipped out to D.C.

Nick Markakis — Sparkakis! He’s turning his shizz around.

Paul Konerko — He’s up to 12 donks for the year.  Ride his donkey-donks for as long as you can.  He could be a sell-high candidate, but his name doesn’t inspire much over-hype at this point in his career.  He’ll be solid enough for you, especially at whatever bargain basement round you drafted him in.

Rafael Furcal — There’s a good chance he’ll be DL’d if he can’t go today.  Very bad news for his owners since he looked like he was back.  Tweaking your hammy isn’t anything like pinching your pet pig’s nose, but both might land you on the DL.

Jon Garland — Hodgepadre strikes again!

Jhoulys Chacin — Pitched well against the Giants on the road.  Against a good team in Colorado you will see different results.  He gets the Dodgers in his next go around. His name is pronounced “Yo-lease,” so I’m guessing he was named after Bart Simpson trying to get his sister’s attention, but I could be wrong.  He is talented, but will have a lot of rocky starts (get it, Rockies?)

Rod Barajas — He must revel in facing his old team (who he played a whopping 48 games for).  Three Donks in two games.  He’s blown his wad.

Jaime Moyer — I can only think of Eddie Harris every time I see him pitch. His hair did look a little greasy.

Kerry Wood — Chris Perez might not want to give the closers’ role back, but Wood will get the opportunity.  So what are you waiting for?

Daisuke Matsuzaka — Not much has changed for Dice-K.  People still can’t spell his name and go with the “Dice-K,” instead.  If you start him you’re rolling the dice, K?  He did have a nice outing for Grey this week, but it was in our Razzball league.

Chris Young — He was blasted in Double A and couldn’t get out of the first inning.  I’m holding judgment for now.  It was his first start back and he is a Hodgepadre.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Brewers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Brew Crew Ball.

1) Alcides Escobar seems to me like a cheap shortstop that can provide steals (and obviously defense), which works for fantasy baseball (the steals part).  What’s your most realistic prediction for him in 2010?

It’s hard not to get excited about Alcides Escobar, who has developed a reputation as an absolute wizard defensively and looked very good at the plate in a brief audition for the Brewers last fall, hitting .304/.333/.368 and becoming just the second Brewer ever to collect 40 hits in his first 138 major league plate appearances. With that said, Escobar’s bat likely isn’t quite that good in the long term. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his 2009 Major League Equivalent line at .259/.301/.345, and that’s probably a fair expectation for his 2010 line.

As for steals, that will likely depend on his position in the lineup. His low OBP and power would suggest he should hit toward the bottom of the order where he could run wild, but the Brewers’ lack of better options may force him into the second spot in the lineup, where he’d have to be much more careful running in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. He’s stolen 80 bases in 100 attempts over the last two seasons, so he’ll certainly have some success on the basepaths if given the opportunity.

2) If you look in the dictionary next to the idiom, “You can’t steal 1st,” you’ll find Carlos Gomez, assuming your dictionary has pictures and baseball idioms.  Cheap steals can provide value in fantasy, so Gomez needs to be looked at (unfortunately).  How many at-bats do you see getting with his .230 average, .232 OBP and a man named, Jody, behind him?

Carlos Gomez has two things going for him at this point: He has a reputation as a very good defender, and the Brewers traded away a well known and moderately well liked contributor (J.J. Hardy) to get him. Those two factors will give him every opportunity to prove he can carry the load in center field, even if his bat never comes to life.

There’s clearly still plenty of room for growth with Gomez, who only turned 24 in December, and there are some reasons for optimism: He hit .275/.373/.374 during the regular season in the Dominican Winter League. However, his numbers plummeted during the postseason and he was left off his team’s Caribbean World Series roster with flulike symptoms.

If Gomez proves he’s not the answer, Jody Gerut is the likely candidate to absorb some of his playing time. Gerut looked very good in consistent ABs down the stretch last season, and is a capable defensive center fielder. Jim Edmonds also seems to think he’s coming to camp to prove he can still handle center field: if he can do so in an acceptable fashion, it’s possible he could see some starts out there.

3) Corey Hart’s 2009 was obviously the part of the Behind of the Music where he’s washed up and sniffing glue in the back of the Arby’s parking lot.  Can 2010 be the uplifting turnaround or will he hit rock bottom, turning tricks for glue money?

I’m not very optimistic about Corey Hart, who has done very little over the past season and a half to prove he’s the same player that hit .289/.327/.504 and earned a spot on the All Star Team in the first half of 2008. His .263 second half OBP was one of the factors that nearly cost the Brewers their 2008 playoff appearance. Before the 2009 season, he said all the right things about taking pitches and showing more patience and improved his OBP to .335, but lost over 40 points on his slugging percentage and still looked absolutely lost at the plate in key situations.

For a very gifted athlete, Hart’s defensive abilities are also below average, and he frequently relies on his good speed to cover the fact that his instincts aren’t good at all. As age slows him down, his defensive abilities will likely shift from “below average” to “intolerable.”

Finally, Hart has done himself no favors by saying negative things publicly about Brewer fans and taking the team to arbitration this season. His declining performance, negative attitude toward fans and escalating salary have combined to make him one of the team’s less popular players.

4) Casey McGehee screams to me “platoon player,” which is pretty annoying if you’re hungover.  Can Gamel work his way into the lineup or is his glove just too ugly?

Casey McGehee was one of 2009′s great surprise stories and earned the opportunity to play every day in 2010. He’s certainly a candidate to regress, but he’ll be given every chance to prove his performance in 2009 was not a fluke. With third base occupied, Mat Gamel will likely open 2010 in AAA, and when he returns (and where he plays) will likely be determined by McGehee’s health and performance.

In limited major league opportunities in 2010, Gamel did not look as bad as advertised defensively. He may never win a Gold Glove out there, but I would argue against the common perception that he *needs* to be moved off third base. With that said, McGehee is under team control for five more seasons, so if he produces Gamel will have to be moved to another position or another team to spend significant time in the majors.

5) What would be the most fitting pun-nicknames:  A) Prince “Not A Good” Fielder B) Rickie “On the DL 6 to 8″ Weeks C) Manny “My Control is Sub-” Parra

Fielder’s defense is actually much better than advertised. Like Gamel, he’ll likely never win a Gold Glove, but Fielder was close to league average defensively last season, and for a player of his build and offensive talent, league average defense is pretty impressive. He also seems to display good instincts and make the occasional great play.

As for Rickie Weeks, I’ve heard all the jokes (and made some of my own) about his durability, but the injuries he’s best known for (his wrists) have been season enders, not 6-8 week bumps in the road.

That leaves Manny Parra, and if I have to choose one of the three, I’ll go with him. 2010 could be a pivotal year in his career: At 27 years old, he could still bounce back, have a nice season under Rick Peterson, and become a pitcher a team depends on for another 5-10 years. If he posts another season like 2009, though, he could end up getting non-tendered and scouring the market for a minor league deal.

Parra is almost a lock to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, and his long term success or failure will go a long way towards determining the kind of season the Brewers have.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Lookout Landing.

1)  I’m actually pretty high on David Aardsma.  Others, not so much.  Lots of people are predicting a regression of sorts.  Which side do you fall on?

I like Aardsma, and I like that the M’s were able to recognize his potential and land him for nothing. With that said, while I expect him to remain a pretty good reliever, you have to expect some regression. I mean, you have to, right? He had one of the most extreme flyball rates in baseball and somehow only managed to allow four home runs. That’s not gonna last, especially when you keep in mind all the balls to the track he surrendered. Safeco and the defense will help him, but I could easily see his HR rate doubling. Best case, he survives the season looking only a little worse. More likely, he starts making people a little nervous, and there end up being whispers about Brandon League. With the fly balls and the walks, Aardsma kind of lives on the edge.

2)  I forget where I read it, but someone (I think it was a person, might’ve been a robot) said a great thing about Milton Bradley.  I’m paraphrasing — shoot, I can’t even remember where I read it — notice the Mariner fans’ excitement the day after the Mariners got Milton Bradley.  A year ago, the Cubs fans were excited about Bradley too. At one point, the Rangers were excited about Bradley.  The Padres were excited.  And so on.  Yet, it never ends well.  How will the Milton Bradley era in Seattle end?  What do you see from him this year?

I’d say it ended fairly well in Texas and Oakland, and San Diego has nothing but nice things to say about him. But anyway, it’s important to recognize the difference in environment in Chicago vs. Seattle. Here we don’t have that media, that manager, and those fans. Here we have Junior. If any situation is right for Bradley, it’s this one. I don’t expect him to remain perfectly healthy, and he’s not going to be a source of major power, but there’s no reason why he can’t end up at or around his career averages barring a mental meltdown. Better real-life player than fantasy player, probably.

3)  F-Her, Cliff Lee — Sweet!  Then what?  Give me what you think the Mariners rotation will be.

Obviously, everyone focuses on the 1-2, for good reason. Behind the two aces, we’ll go with Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and one of Jason Vargas/Doug Fister/Luke French/Garrett Olson. That’s the four-man competition taking place right now in Arizona. You’re a fantasy site, right? In that case, the only one of these guys worth considering is RRS, as he’s poised to take wonderful advantage of the ballpark and the defense yet again. If Jarrod Washburn can do what he did in 2009, RRS could, too. You can keep your eye on Snell, I suppose, but I’d keep an eye from afar.

4) We have our own thoughts on Verducci, but he did flag Felix Hernandez.  You have any concerns or would you like to tell Verducci where to shove his flag?

I actually discussed this very topic here on my own site.  (Note from Grey:  That’s actually a great article about Verducci that I think everyone should read.)  Bottom line: Verducci’s heart is in the right place, but his analysis is flawed, and the people who’ve investigated his theory haven’t uncovered an effect. So there’s no evidence that there’s anything to this. I will always be a little worried about Felix, but that’s because pitching is dangerous, and he’s my baby. I don’t think we have any reason to believe that his 2009 workload will have a negative impact on his 2010 performance.

5) If the Mariners GM, Jack Zduriencik, started an office fantasy baseball league, what would be the most non-traditional fantasy stat? A) UZR B) Speed to first C) Pitcher First Pitch Strikes D) FRAGU — Fielding Runs Against Glove Upside E) BABIP@SLVSAERLP – Batting Average for Balls In Play @ Sea Level vs. Arbitration-Eligible Replacement-Level Players

Probably OBP. Z isn’t a stats guy. Z is just smart enough to hire stats guys. If Tony Blengino started the pool, though, then we’re talking acronyms with things that aren’t even letters anymore.