Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jason Heyward, besides having the surname of a 1930s matinee idol, has the mitts of a Yeti and the sturdies (<– that’s legs) of Frank Thomas.  His man gams are 117% oak.  You thought Jay Bruce could fight crime? Heyward just saved your life and you didn’t even know you were in danger. Look over your left shoulder — quickly!  See that shadow shrinking out of the room?  That was Heyward.  He’s now going to Ireland to sing harmony with that Once guy.  So being a globetrotting, harmonizing, crime fighting love child of a Yeti and Frank Thomas is all well-and-good, but can the the Braves outfield prospect, Jason Heyward, help you in fantasy baseball leagues in 2009?

Nope.  But… You said he was Yeti-like! Sorry, random italicized voice, it’s a bummer. I know.  So you’re probably thinking to yourself why am I even talking about him? (Yes, I can read your mind. Spooky, huh?)  Firstly, when I decided to go over 2009 fantasy rookies — Wait, you don’t need to know it from the jump, as the kids said in the early naughts. Fast forward to my reasoning… Twenty-seventhly, Heyward is going to be something special probably as soon as 2010.  This is a wake up call for all keeper leagues, NL-Only and mixed ones.  You know all that power and speed you love about The Uptons?  Heyward has that in duckets.  He’s my early 2010 NL ROY frontrunner and should be owned in all keeper leagues.  You want a prediction limb? Heyward goes 25/15 in his first full season with the Braves and he invents a Snuggie that doesn’t look quite as monk-like.

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

Not Krispie Young. I’m talking about the lanky, San Diego pitcher, Chris Young. (Though some may say Krispie is also a sleeper.) Last year, POO-holes put a little extra stank on a rope right back at Young’s nose.  Young ended up only starting 18 games and a few of those starts were obviously just, “Let’s see if he can start and not crawl into a little ball cause Pujols put the fear of Xenu into him.”  By the end of the season, Chris Young put a string of four consecutive starts together with a 1.55 ERA, including a September two-hitter against the playoff-bound Brewers.  Chris Young should be back in 2009 in a big non-skull fracture type way. Does that make you giddy? It does it for me. Anyway, let’s see what we can expect of Chris Young in 2009 and why he’s a fantasy sleeper.

In 2007, Chris Young had an ERA of 3.12, but post-All-Star break he only had an ERA of 4.80 as he seemed to hit a wall with a tired arm. This would make sense since he came off a season of 164.2 and 179.1 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Guess how many innings Chris Young threw in 2008? Nope, lower. Even lower! 102 innings. After he throws 175 innings in 2009, I might be cautious in 2010, but right now I don’t care. Do you? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a year from Chris Young of 175 IP and a 3.50 ERA.  The best part is Young isn’t going to be drafted high at all. He’ll prolly go around fourth fantasy starter territory, say 170.  I’ve seen him drafted in the same ballpark as Andy Sonnanstine, Andy Pettitte, Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. For a guy who will be drafted as a fourth starter, but give you 2nd starter numbers, Chris Young is a great fantasy sleeper for 2009.

K-Rod wasn’t the top closer according to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and he’s not the number one closer according to our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections — it’s called Point Shares, ya’ll! The title of top closer goes to Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon, respectively. And I respectively agree. As Madonna tries to figure out if the K stands for Kabbalah and if she’s with the right Rod, let’s see what this signing does for K-Rod’s 2009 fantasy value and others:

Francisco Rodriguez – When I did my look at offseason 2009 closers, I placed Nathan, Papelbon, Lidge and Mo-Ri in front of K-Rod. Nothing change. I said K-Rod was going to be the closer for the Mets back in August. Everyone said he was going to be the Mets closer back in August. (I think I was one day before everyone else, but who’s counting — besides me.) Francisco Rodriguez is still a $12 Salad and, if anything, he’s even more overrated now by people who think a closer in New York is more valuable simply because of geography.

Scot Shields – No one seems to think he’s going to be the 2009 closer of the Angels, but if Scioscia goes with his longtime setup man first it wouldn’t surprise me that much.

Jose Arrendondo – In that same Closer Look post, Arredondo was ranked 17th, since he’s obviously a Donkey-corn. If he goes into the season as the clear cut closer of the Angels then put another band-aid on your cheek Nelly cause Arrendondo’s about to grimey in overratedness.

Can you feel the fantasy repercussions of the Ramon Hernandez trade?  Yeah, a tremor. Thanks, random italicized voice.  No, don’t you see, this has so little to do with Ramon Hernandez being traded. It does? Yes! It has everything to do with Matt Wieters now having an opportunity to start the 2009 season in Baltimore. Okay, let’s breakdown what the Ramon Hernandez trade means for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Wieters – With Ramon Hernandez gone from Baltimore, the catching job is Wieters’s to lose. In my ongoing rookie outlook series, I went over what I thought a 2009 Matt Wieters would look like. Here’s the crux, “In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list.” And that’s me quoting and linking to my crux! My point there was that in the end, Wieters is still a catcher. What’s the most we can expect? 20 home runs? A .300 average? Yeah, that’s the ceiling on Wieters. And those are really good numbers for a rookie catcher. But they’re still 20 home runs and a .300 average or as I like to call them, Ty Wigginton’s 2008 numbers. My recommendation is to let someone else take the risk, unless Wieters comes cheap on draft day.  Think end of the draft for 10-team mixed leagues. He should be pursued more aggressively in keeper leagues.  On my top 20 catchers for 2009 post (which will be published in January with the other top 20 position lists), I’m debating whether to slot him in at 12 or 14.

Ramon Hernandez – Camden to Great American is a push. Seeing some new pitching in the NL might affect him slightly… Oh, who are we kidding? You read this for Wieters and stopped by this point. Ramon Hernandez should be drafted in NL-Only leagues and some deeper mixed ones with the hope he bounces back to pre-’07 levels. Though I have my doubts about whether those levels are still possible.  Expect 15 to 17 home runs and a .260 average.

Ryan Freel – He’s a utility player with speed. Without speed, he’s a futility player.