Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper. Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper. More like a Prince Valium one. After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237. “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout. I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him. Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon. Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die. This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one. So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?
In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks. Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure. For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible. Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves. He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power. Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.) I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2. Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales. I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential. So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman. Not really that excited. If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman. How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever? You’re welcome!
Remember the blonde chick from the The Real World: Hawaii, who, like, totally fell for Colin? She was the cute girl with the young grandmother body. You know who I’m talking about? Cool. Yeah, she’s not Kendry Morales. Kendry Morales is the doode that the Angels are putting in as their starting 1st baseman. Joly Hesus! A prospect that is going to be playing 1st for an AL team that scores runs like an NL team! How did you miss that, right? Pretty easily. He’s sizz-ucked in his limited time in the majors. In 127 games in the Majors, he’s sitting on a career line of 12/45/.249 with no speed. If you were a Benihana chef, you’d cut the tail of those numbers and flip ‘em into your hat. So what is it that I like about Kendry Morales that makes him a 2009 fantasy sleeper?
Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey! This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke. In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors. In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP. At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope. Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough. He’s not going to explode for power suddenly. 20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling. So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you. The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals. For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.
Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up. You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post. See, you are familiar with my work. Great, I love how you do whatever you do too. Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball. I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now. One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks. You want anyone getting saves. Yes, you do. Trust me. You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year. You may be right. But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year. Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon. You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler. You also missed out on good closers. Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:
Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff. I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back. Or not…
Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5. There’s the fun!
Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique. I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey. Not sure. Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue. I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…
Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience. He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience. He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together. Which leaves…
Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.
Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR. I still think Marmol is draftable in every league. Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.
Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer. The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves. So who do you draft? Both, if they’re at the right spot. When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.
Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.
Manny Corpas – See Huston Street. Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas! At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.
Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger. Probably leaving spring training as the setup man. He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th. He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…
Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year. Stranger things have happened.
George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not. Probably sometime in May he cedes to…
Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!
Brandon Lyon – Has the job. No need to back him up. Yet.
Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon. He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.
Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job. Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench. Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.
Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something. In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.
Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job. Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte. You tell that to LaRussa. Sometimes experience beats out skill set.
Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job. Don’t sleep on Motte! Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.
If I may jump into the cavern of your noggin for a moment, you’re probably thinking, “Lastings Milledge — isn’t he that failed prospect the Mets gave up on?” Slow your roll there. He’s only 23 years old. Or maybe you’re thinking, “I could’ve sworn I remember seeing Milledge on my league’s waivers last year.” You’re right; Milledge clogged up outfields last year with non-digestible tools causing many to drop him. Through the end of July last year, Milledge was at 7 home runs, 13 steals and a .237 average. re: those numbers, They’re awful! Don’t go back and look again. You’ll go blind like the Blind Art Garfunkel on American Idol. Yet, through all of this, I still think Milledge is a 2009 fantasy sleeper. Hear’s Y as an illiterate wood right.
After Milledge spent fourteen/sixteenths of his 2008 vomiting onto Bowden’s Segway, from August to October, Milledge spent his time polishing those same wheels. In the last 50+ games, he beat his early season numbers, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 11 with a .318 average. You can refer to him the same way you refer to the guy who works at Home Depot, “Hey, Toolsy!” He’s also a Bowden Fluffer. According to the Razzball Glossary, a Bowden Fluffer is defined as a young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools. Rarely lives up to the promise. Named after ex-Nationals GM Jim Bowden who had a boner for these types of players. So, if you draft Lastings Milledge in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, it could mean a cheap 20/20 hitter, but, most importantly, Jim Bowden will get wood. And where he’s going, he might need it. As I said in the top 40 outfielders for 2009 post, Lastings Milledge has promise for this year and he’s definitely a 2009 fantasy sleeper.
Then one day Jed was hopin’ he could start; and Lugo and Scrappy Doo started fallin’ apart. This is an opening for good ol’ Jed. The kind to keep those taking late MI fliers fed. Said Yawkey is the place you ought to be. So he packed up his Wii to play with Papi. Ortiz, that is. Jed Lowrie is in, Julio Lugo is out and Nomar Garciaparra is so five minutes ago. Yo, whaddup, double play pardner? Not your knee, I assume. And the Jed Lowrie fantasy sleeper post is back on like Donkey Kong. Sure, the Sox are saying Julio Lugo may only be out a month, but he was ‘healthy’ last year and he lost playing time. Do the math! Anyway, here’s some more things I saw in spring training that pertains to fantasy baseball:
Dustin Pedroia – Man, I’m telling you right now (unless you’re reading this sometime in the future. Damn you, Future Boy!) if Dustin Pedroia sheets the bed this year, I’m going to milk that carton at least once a week and twice on Moosday. During the WBC (World Backups Championship?), Pedroia came up lame due to a strained muscle near his rib cage. For those of us playing fantasy baseball that have never seen a “hitter” “hit,” strained muscles near the rib cage can cause pain when a batter swings. If Pedroia is fine fine, he bounces back with no ill effects and still hits his 15 to 18 home runs. Now what if Pedroia is not that fine fine? Say he only hits 12 to 15 home runs. Do you see what a waste of an early pick Pedroia could be? You really want a 2nd round pick that might hit 12 home runs and steals 15? Who are you, Kelly Johnson? That’s giving me The Gas Face just thinking about it.
Chad Cordero – Yes, he’s been out for at least another two months. Yes, he has no real competition to be the Mariners closer. Yes, he looks like a child molester. It’s just matter of him getting healthy. He starts saving games in late-May at the earliest. If I had room on my DL, I’d take this flier towards the end of my draft. Worst comes to worst, one of your other guys gets injured and you drop him. No harm, no foul.
Mike Fontenot – Ooh la la, Fontenot’s French for move him up your draft sheets.
Chris Davis – Hit his first home run of the spring. He has 16 Ks in 40 ABs. With everyone jocking the Davis Cup, let me reiterate how he may not hit .270 this year. That’s not me jumping ship. I talked about his propensity to strikeout back in December in my Chris Davis sleeper post.
Mark Teahen – 3 HRs so far. If he’s playing 2nd, I’m buying late.
Andy LaRoche – With his brother not hitting until July, Andy is stealing some of the LaRoche familial love early. He’s first in average and OBP for all spring trainingers. Might be a very cheap sleeper for 3rd base. If he keeps up his torrid March, I’ll write more on this.
Matt Lindstrom – He hurt something yesterday. If you have him, I’d back him up with Leo Nunez.
Emmanuel Burriss – Is winning the job over Frandsen. Stay on fire, Emmanuel. Papadapolis will save you.
