Fantasy Baseball Advice

Our fearless leader has been crippled by some Kryptonic supermarket macaroni salad so I will be your tour guide through the daily baseball comings and goings.

So J.P. Ricciardi waved goodbye to Alex Rios and freed up some money so he can buy some tickets to Moneyball The Movie and to get one of them new-fangled Adam Dunn verification machines for his phone.  Rios hasn’t been great outside of Toronto this year, but The Cell isn’t exactly Petco Central.  He actually has picked it up a bit going 6-14 with 2 home runs in his last 4 games. As long as Rios gets playing time he should continue his 20/20 pace.  But knowing Ozzie he could bat Rios behind Wise and Getz in the 12th hole or Kenny Williams could pick Ryan Braun off waivers and Rios will go to the bench.

Chris Coghlan — As soon as I drop this guy he goes all mini-mini-dwarf donkey on me.  He just set a record for most multi hit games in a row by a Marlin with eight.  He’s not going to win you a championship, but he’ll replace some schmohawk who hasn’t had a multi hit game in about two months.

Leo Nunez – Matt Lindstrom should eventually take over Nunez’s SAGNOF slot, but yesterday he got into trouble and had to be saved by Nunez and his SAGNOF slot.

Jordan Zimmermann — After my heart stopped when I read the headline “Zimmerman To Get Tommy John Surgery” I realized that it wasn’t Ryan and if you have JZ on your DL it’s time to replace him with a Hudson/Peavy type.

Mark Ellis — 5-5 with 4 RBI’s and is 21-50 in his last 14 games.  If you are hurting for some MI help take a look because there are some real schmohawks playing 2b and you probably have one on your team and you might as well switch him out for another.

Travis Snider — With Rios moving to the south side it seems like Snider should get called up.  That of course is yet to be seen, but he hit a homer yesterday and  is hitting well with a .320 AVG, 12 hr, 36 RBIs, 150 ab, .653 slg.  Grab him if he is available and then drop him when he isn’t called up.

Troy Tulowitzki — He hit for the cycle, and went 5-5 with 7 RBI’s vs. the Cubs while Aaron Miles was dragged to the top of Mt. Elbert and thrown off.

Johnny Cueto — Left the game after 2 innings with a hip flexor.  This gives anyone still holding onto him an easy out.  Drop him like a hot Cueto.

Chris B. Young — Demoted to the three A’s.  Krispie just never could show us his warm chewy goodness this year.  It’s hard to believe he won’t get his swing back in the minors and then be a sleeper once again.

Dexter Fowler — While writing this Fowler just made a tremendous over the shoulder catch in the ninth while slamming into the wall with the Rockies up by eight.  Watching him this series I can see what Grey sees in him.  He’s more than just another SAGNOF slot for all you Razzballers to abuse!

Trent Oeltjen — Well, he’s been getting plenty of notice here on the daily round up, but anybody who has a magical “M” floating around their last name needs a little press, plus with The Krispie One demoted he should get some more playing time, that, and he out-homered Mark Reynolds last night during the “Summer of Mini-Donkey.”

Russell Branyan — He hit a solo home run.  That is all.

Kendry Morales — The dude, (he is a dude right? I mean I never see this person play because I’m usually on my 4th appletini and it’s about 2 am), this dude just keeps hitting.  Two home runs last night (or this morning) which moves him up to 25 donks and 75 RDI’s (runs donked in) and it’s only in the 6th and I am going to bed!

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mets Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of MetsBlog.

1) Carlos Delgado seemed done in 2007, then he wasn’t done in 2008. In 2009, done or not done and why?

I bet, like in 2008, he’s some place in the middle again. He’s not getting younger, so to expect an improvement from last season would be unrealistic. He and the team will tell you he had mechanical and mental hitches that hurt him in the start of the season, it wasn’t physical. Frankly, I prefer it be physical, because, if healthy, he’d be all set. However, what’s to say he doesn’t slide back in to those mechanical mistakes again.

2) John Maine battled some injuries in 2008, can we expect a bounce back in 2009 to a sub-4 ERA?

He’s struggling in spring training, but he says he is working on different things, from different pitches to adjustments in his delivery.

Maine is very hard on himself, and he goes in to mental funks, that translate in rough stretches during the season. He knows he needs to stop thinking, and just let the ball rip, like he was doing at the start of last season.

The key for him will be whether he can focus, stop overthinking, and create a better out pitch to keep batters from fouling off so many pitches, which often leads him to 90–pitch counts in the fourth inning.

3) Not sure if you play fantasy baseball, but even if you don’t you should be able to answer this. Reyes or Wright?

Funny you should ask, because I was in this exact position on Sunday during my league’s draft. We have an extensive prospects and keeper system, that has allowed me to carry Ryan Zimmerman since he was in Double-A. I am using him, finally, as my starting third baseman – in a head-to-head league with 16 teams, and 16 roster spots. So, because I do not have a starting shortstop, I selected Reyes with second overall pick in the draft, ahead of Wright and Hanley Ramirez. Wright was taken with the next pick.

4) How do you think Citi-Field will play? Pitcher’s park? Hitter’s park? Why?

I have no idea, and neither does any one else. I asked Jeff Wilpon this very question, when I talked with him during spring training, and he said there have been no indications yet, and nobody will really know until the team starts playing in April – and even then it will likely change as the weather warms up, the wind patterns change and it gets more humid in the summer. I believe, however, they want it to be a pitcher’s park, consistent with the team’s history.

5) Luis Castillo is projected for 490 ABs and 0 HRs. That would be a sub-Herculean achievement. Think he can pull it off?

My readers at MetsBlog.com like to call him Slappy McSingleton, but, like Clark Kent in a phone booth, turning in to Superman, he becomes Slappy McHomerton at least once or twice per season when batting from the right side of the plate – I expect the same in 2009.

I am far more concerned with his OBP than his home run totals, though.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of U.S.S. Mariner.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2009?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005’s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008’s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009’s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.

I already did the catchers, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I skipped the 1st basemen on purpose because I don’t think you should be taking a flier on 1st basemen.  You need some anchors for your hitting.  Then someone commented yesterday asking for the 1st basemen to target and the course of Razzball history was changed forever, like when Marty got into that DeLorean.  I haven’t changed my mind that you shouldn’t be taking a flier on a 1st basemen, but sometimes things are out of your control or you need a corner man or a Utility guy.  This is a supplement to the top 20 1st basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 1st basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Chris Duncan – Colby Rasmus has moved above him on the depth charts, but I think Duncan still gets 300 ABs and nears 20 HRs.  Unless LaRussa doesn’t want anyone coaching his pitching staff.  Dave Duncan, “Muahahahahahahaha…” Pause.  Duncan, “And you know that!”

Mike Jacobs – He’ll probably hit .250 and batting in the Royals order will do him no favors, but he could hit 30 HRs and have one of those lucky BABIP years and end up hitting .275.  Though I wouldn’t team him up with a Dunn, Krispie or Uggla-type.

Casey Kotchman – Kendry Morales minus 3 home runs.

Kendry Morales – Casey Kotchman plus 3 home runs.  See how that worked.

James Loney – Is he that different than Conor Jackson?  Rhetorical!

Paul Konerko – Konerko hit 9 HRs in the month of September last year.  ZIPS has him for 25 HRs, hitting .269 in 502 ABs.  That seems doable.  He had a very unlucky 2008 with injuries and BABIP.  He’s only 33; he just seems like a non-Latin 45.

Nick Swisher – I wouldn’t shy away from Swisher because of projected playing time.  I think he takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.  The bigger issue with Swisher is he might hit .235.

Billy Butler – Bust can refer to Butler’s major league career thus far or his moobs.  I haven’t talked that much about Butler thus far in 2009.  Potential for 20 HRs and a .300 average.  He’s crushing the ball so far in spring training.  Exciting, huh?  Yeah, he crushed the ball in spring training last year and ended up demoted to the minors on May 29th.  He’s still very young so we shouldn’t write him off as a March-only hitter. (George Steinbrenner once referred to Dave Winfield as Mr. May because of his early season exploits.  What’s someone called who only hits well in spring training?  Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s not just hot.  He’s not just red hot.  He’s ruby red hot!) For this year with Billy Butler, I think Mr. Grapefruit can carry his tart sweetness into the regular season and not turn sour.

Who Knew?  Apparently, everyone.  I may have been the only one rooting for Aaron Heilman; Lou definitely was not.  Well, open that window and throw Heilman out.  Sean Marshall has been named the Cubs fifth starter.  As I said somewhere in the comments in the last couple of days, I like whoever comes away with the 5th starter job for the Cubs.  They’re gonna win games.  Know what I mean, Paula Dean?  But what can we actually expect from Sean Marshall?  Well, let’s put it this way since we’re talking about the Cubbies.  I’d prefer to have Sean Marshall on my fantasy team for where he’s going to be drafted compared to Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden or Ryan Dempster.  From Marshall, you should expect a low 4 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and decent Ks.  As with any fifth starter, Sean “Puffy” Marshall may get skipped on occasion, but he’ll also face off against lower tier starters potentially helping him with wins.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Chris Getz – We move over to the South Side and stay with the Chi-Town theme.  Getz will be the starting 2nd baseman gig for The Pale Hose.  He’ll probably bat 9th or 1st depending on the breeze that is circulating through Ozzie’s office.  Unlike Marshall, I don’t get Getz.  If he gets 500 ABs, maybe he reaches 7 HRs and 10 SBs.  If you’re thinking those numbers look a lot like Kelly Johnson, you wouldn’t be too far off.  Only Getz could hurt you in average as well as RBIs and Runs if he bats ninth.  In AL-Only leagues and deep leagues, I could see you looking, but the league would need to be Cousteau deep.  For what it’s worth, ZIPS likes him more giving him about 10/12 and .275 (they only gave him 393 ABs, so I’m projecting their stats up).  I think you’ll be miserable if you own him.

Chris Perez – Sticking with the newly-established Chris theme, Perez was shutdown.  This seals the deal on him not opening the season as the Cards closer.  Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin are still battling it out.  I think it goes into the season with those two sharing duties until one guy pulls away.  If one guy pulls away.  Motte has better stuff, so he’s more attractive.  Franklin has seniority, so LaRussa does what he do.

John Lannan – Will be the Nats opening day starter.  I sure hope his family can get seats!

Marlon Byrd – Hit his first home run of the spring.  I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating.  If Byrd and Murphy do a righty/lefty split, they could produce 20/20 numbers in a daily league platoon.

Francisco Cordero – Coco Cordero is looking like Coco B. Ware.  Maybe he’s favoring his ankle, maybe he’s just trying to give you agita.  He’s still very much the closer.  All he needs to do is turn in one solid performance and he’ll be deemed fine.  Well, one solid performance not followed by two lousy outings.

John Danks – 17/4 K/BB this spring.  As I said in my starters to watch, Danks is one of the few AL pitchers I’d look at late in mixed leagues.

Josh Outman – Recognize, aptronym!  Unrecognize, A’s starter.  Recognize, there’s five seats on the A’s rotation bus and everyone that can throw a baseball is playing musical chairs.  Unrecog–  Oh, forget it.  Outman’s pitching well in spring training.