Fantasy Baseball Advice

So it’s not really the 2nd half mark in the fantasy baseball season, but it’s the All-Star Break so what else are we going to talk about?  The newest Real World?  Why would you put them in Cancun and then say they can’t drink in public?  Go put restrictions on the castmates of 16 and Pregnant and leave the Real Worlders alone.  As with all of the other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt.  If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the outfielder for the 2nd baseman.  Also, things change in fantasy baseball.  Daily.  I could put Albert Pujols number one on the top 50 list for the second half of 2009 and he could get injured tomorrow.  Then he wouldn’t be number one.  See how that works.  This list is a roadmap for where I think guys are valued.  It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my ’stache.  This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up today. So while Carlos Quentin did not have a solid first half, he will appear on this list because I think he can play in the 2nd half.  Anyway, here’s the top 50 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half:

1. Albert Pujols – Pujols, a God amongst Schumakers.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ah, how nice it would be to own Hanley and not have to worry about the shortstop schmohawk behind door number three.

3. Chase Utley – Already dropping a head turner on ya, huh?  At 2nd base, he’s putting up better numbers than Miggy C., Ryan B, BBD and The East Coast family.  I have no problem with Utley ranking 3rd.  Do you?

4. Miguel Cabrera – Let’s stop with the “Ooh…No Wright?” right now.  He’s not showing up for a bit.

5. Ryan Braun – Big fan of the Hebrew Hammer.  He’s one of those players that can go into a two month zone.

6. Tim Lincecum – Could easily be the most valuable fantasy player (not just pitcher) at the end of the year.

7. Mark Teixeira – Drink some PABST (Post-All-Star Break Teixeira).

8. Prince Fielder – See Howard, Ryan or 1/8th of an inch below.

9. Ryan Howard -  One of those guys that could be in an 1-for-75 slump and I’d still rank himself higher than he deserves.  Simply because he’s one of the few guys capable of a 15 homer month.

10. Carl Crawford – Do I think he slows down in the 2nd half?  Who am I, Ms. Cleo?  I don’t know, but there’s few players that can give you 10 homers, 30 steals and a .300 average in the 2nd half.  Crawford’s one.

11. Evan Longoria – For the past month, he’s been an embarrassment to himself and Tony Parker, but I have more faith in him for the 2nd half than David Wright.

12. Ian Kinsler – The whole “Never played more than 130 games” weighed on this ranking.  So, yes, he is currently out-hitting a few of the guys before him.  I realize that.

13. Justin Morneau – In the preseason, I worried Morneau’s power wouldn’t come around.  It has.

14. David Wright – Becoming a fantasy baseball Public Enemy because he feels the need to Fight the Power.

15. Roy Halladay – Even if he gets traded his value will be about the same.  Unless he goes to the Padres, but that seems unlikely since they traded their number three hitter for a bag of buttered popcorn.

16. Johan Santana - Not pitching nearly as well as he has in the past, and still on pace for 200 Ks, 17 Wins and a 3 ERA.

17. Matt Kemp – On pace for 20/40, batting .300 and serious Daddy issues because Torre won’t love him.

18. Jason Bay – Good chance of being a top 5 outfielder the rest of the way.  Chowdah!

19. CC Sabathia – This high ranking is partially predicated on his 2nd half last year.  And partially because I have a soft spot for fat guys.

20. Alex Rodriguez – While David Wright puts up Ichiro numbers, A-Rod seems more and more appealing.

21. Mark Reynolds – Having him this high is a bit silly for a guy that strikes out as much as him, but you know what?  Mark Reynolds makes people do silly things.  Just the other day, I mailed a pizza and ate my telephone bill.

22. B.J. Upton – Really has no business being this high either, but when I tried to find someone who was capable of a 10/25 2nd half, I came up with Upton.

23. Lance Berkman – Relevant of nothing, if Berkman and Fred Savage had a kid, it would look like the host of Man vs. Food.

24. Curtis Granderson - As I learned in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, when you have so many 1st and 3rd basemen that give you no speed, it’s important to get outfielders that give you both.  School’s out, Alice Cooper!

25. Joey Votto – .342 since his return.  I could see him getting more value than this ranking.  I heart Votto.

26. Josh Hamilton – Josh Willingham had a better 1st half than Hamilton.  I’m not a fan of Hamilton, but I think he can beat Willingham in the 2nd half.

27. Zach Greinke – He’s relatively low compared to where you might think he belongs but he had a 4.05 ERA in June and 3.75 in July.  You haven’t noticed those numbers because he made love to your eyes in April and May.

28. Justin Upton – No reason why he can’t do it over the whole year, it’s just that he hasn’t done it before so there’s some risk involved.

29. Jacoby Ellsbury – Wholesale version of Crawford.

30. Jimmy Rollins – I know he was crizzap in the first half.  This isn’t about the 1st half.

31. Grady Sizemore – I’ll move him up to the first round again next year when he enters Spring Training healthy.

32. Brandon Phillips – Not really dazzling anyone, but there’s value in 10+/10+ and solid Runs and RBIs from your 2nd baseman.

33. Carlos Lee – I don’t buy Chuck Lee’s done, but he also hasn’t hit more than 6 homers in any month in two years.

34. Raul Ibanez – He’s been historically better in the 2nd half and should be healthy for the start of it.  Then throw he’s either on steroids or out to prove he’s great without steroids…

35. Manny Ramirez – Without his female hormone pills, he’s looked fine… If a bit emotional.

36. Joe Mauer – Three homers since June 3rd.  I’m convinced that when he hit 11 homers in May, he had a cortisone shot like the world hasn’t seen since Upton’s playoff cortisone shot.

37. Nick Markakis – In 2007, he hit for good power in the 2nd half (14 Hrs), but he didn’t follow that up in 2008 (6 Hrs).  Markakis is making a good case for dropping to the 3rd outfielder tier.

38. Alex Rios – Weird how Markakis and Rios are forever linked in rankings.  They’re not really that alike, but they always seem like they have similar, unfulfilled expectations.

39. Dustin Pedroia – I don’t think Pedroia’s necessarily going to throw Papi and Youuuk on his back again this year.  He had a huge 2nd half last year – 51/8/36/.345/11, but the power doesn’t seem there this year.

40. Ichiro Suzuki – I don’t know why I can’t get behind Ichiro. I love sushi. Love!  I once dated a Japanese girl, which turned out miserably, but other than my current girlfriend, they all end badly, right?  I mean, at some point in every relationship you gotta say, “The sound of your breathing irritates me.  Let’s breakup.”

41. Chad Billingsley – I believesley.

42. Matt Holliday – I’d really like to know what happened to all of the people that said Holliday was money no matter where he played.  That collective voice got real quiet.

43. Adrian Gonzalez – He hit 4 homers in June, zero in July.

44. Carlos Quentin – This ranking is more that I want to believe than I do believe.

45. Nate McLouth – Good for 10/10/.270 in the 2nd half, but not good for much more.

46. Justin Verlander – More than a K/IP and has actually been unlucky in the 1st half.

47. Javier Vazquez – A real bargain this low.  Nearly 140 Ks going into the All-Star Break is nothing to sneeze at.  Unless you’re allergic to productive starters.

48. Adam Dunn – Sometimes you need nothing but homers.  For those times, call on Dunn.

49. Shin-Soo Choo – Headed for a 90/20/90/.300/20 season.  I will call him, Asian Torii Hunter.

50. Alfonso Soriano – I’d love to sit here (and I am sitting) and tell you all will be fine with Soriano.  Unfortunately, he’s pushing 40-something and his body’s breaking down quicker than you can say Vladimir Guerrero.  Free swingers just don’t age well.  For what it’s worth, swingers don’t age well either.

51. Aramis Ramirez – Aramis smells like risk to me, but could pay dividends if he can have a hot August/September like he did last year.

52. Brian McCann – His Eyeglass Fiasco™ might help keep him fresher in the heart of the summer.

53. Shane Victorino – 43/9/29/.311/14 in the 2nd half last year.

54. Robinson Cano – Notoriously a 2nd half hitter and this year he’s actually done well in the 1st half.  Put it together and you’ll have an overrated 2nd baseman next year.

55. Victor Martinez – Might be able to keep the Ghosts of 2nd Halfs Past at bay if he plays more games at 1st.

56.  Aaron Hill – .245 in June, .204 so far in July.  But he still would’ve been in front of Cano if it wasn’t for Cano’s 2nd half history.

57. Kevin Youkilis – Currently less productive than the Kung Fu Panda.

58. Brian Roberts – Usually a big ol’ plate of 2nd half bleh.

59. Carlos Pena – Looking more and more like a Latino Dave Kingman.

60. Dan Haren – In 2006, 3.53 ERA in the 1st half, 4.91 ERA in the 2nd half.  In 2007, 2.30 ERA in the 1st, 4.15 ERA in the 2nd.  In 2008, 2.72 ERA in the 1st half, 4.19 ERA in the 2nd half.  Cust kayin’.

61. Torii Hunter – Member what Berkman did in the 1st half last year?  Yeah, Hunter just did that.  Member what Berkman did in the 2nd half of last year?  Yeah, me neither.

62. Felix Hernandez – With a little Win Karma, at the end of the year he could be right there for the AL Cy Young too.  F-Her good, wordplay bad.

63. Carlos Beltran – How did I place him so low?  I went through every single player and tried to decide whether I’d want them over Beltran.  When I got to Jeter, I stopped.

64. Derek Jeter – This year he was probably so overrated that he ended being underrated which could lead to him being actually overrated next year.  If that makes any sense.

65. Jon Lester – SAT Question of the Day, June ERA was 1.85, July ERA was 0.61, August ERA will be?  (Answer is: Negative something.)

66. Stephen Drew – Drew’s currently filling in for my one time love of Alex Gordon for The Guy That Grey Unjustifiably Overrates in His Rankings.

67. Josh Beckett – Throw out his April 7.72 ERA and he’d currently have a 2.10 ERA on the year. Zoinks!

68. Bobby Abreu – Currently putting up Damon numbers.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

69. Johnny Damon -  *Damon finishes reading Bobby Abreu’s blurp*  Damon, “Hey, thanks, Grey!”

70. Jose Reyes – I’m more worried about Reyes than I am about Beltran because so much of his value comes from his legs.

71. Jermaine Dye – He’s on pace for 100/35/100/.300.  That’s better than a lot of people listed above him.  Not sure why, but no one ever wants the safe number two outfielder.  Maybe it’s like how you want a lady in the street and a freak in the sheets.  Dye can never be that freak you want.

72. Jonathan Broxton – Current number one closer in my book.  But my book is titled, “I’d Never Draft A Number One Closer.”

73. Josh Johnson – Brother is the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

74. Ryan Ludwick – Where’s Vlad?  Hmm…

75. Edwin Jackson – Just for the fact that he made my top 100 of the 2nd half.  Wow.  The fact he made the list and Oswalt didn’t.  Wow, wow.  Listed before Hamels?  Triple wow.

76. Jonathan Papelbon – Absolutely fine as a closer. Which puts him in the tallest midget category.

77. Hunter Pence – Probably will get hot for a month and finish with a 24/15 line.  Solid, but he’s at 11/9 right now.

78. Nelson Cruz – Can Ron Washington really sit a guy who’s on pace for 35/20?  Not really rhetorical, cause I think Washington can do that.  Hopefully he doesn’t.

79. Francisco Rodriguez/Joe Nathan – Third and fourth tallest midgets.  I combined them, because I didn’t want to waste anymore spots on closers.

80. Adam Wainwright – Should finish the year with a 3.50 ERA and 180 Ks.

81. Jered Weaver – Making his move to being a number one starter for next year.  Hopefully the Angels miss the playoffs or are eliminated quickly so Weaver doesn’t put too many innings on his arm.

82. Alexei Ramirez – He’s actually hitting better this year in the 1st half.  Could have a big 2nd half.

83. Cole Hamels – Maybe the innings have finally caught up to him.  Best thing that could happen for Hamels is he’s shutdown early this year for a strong 2010.

84. James Shields – I keep waiting for Shields to give me a complete game shutout with ten Ks and I continue to be disappointed.  Just have to remember Shields is not a dominant pitcher.  Solid, just not dominant.

85. Ryan Zimmerman – With zero steals this year, safe to say the Nats are not running him for fear of an injury.  This greatly reduces his value.

86. Troy Tulowitzki – Can hitzki 12 homers after the break and throw in 10 more steals.  That would give him 28/20 on the year.

87. Chipper Jones – About 70 games left on the schedule for the Braves.  Chipper sees light in maybe 40 of them.  But he still has more homers left in his bat than most.

88. Jayson Werth – Numbers are a bit inflated going into the ASB because he went caca-cuckoo last week with 5 homers.

89. Matt Cain – Soon his regression is going to mean he’s regressing from a 2.38 ERA to a 3.00 ERA.

90. Yovani Gallardo - His walks are outta control.  If it wasn’t for his Ks, I would’ve dropped him out of the top 100 completely.

91. Ricky Nolasco – In his last six starts, 49:5 K:BB.

92. Wandy Rodriguez – The Wandwagon rolls on.

93. Jorge Cantu – Jump in my Sidecar Of Optimism because Cantu has no business being ranked anywhere in here.  In July, August and September combined of last year, he hit 15 homers.

94. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I almost said Sandoval reminded me of Edgar Martinez because he’s a high average hitter with a power hitter’s build.  And that’s me putting words in my mouth!

95. A.J. Burnett – As most of youse know, I’m not a big Burnett fan.  I almost put Lackey here instead of Burnett, but the more I looked at 2nd half trends, the more I decided Burnett deserved this spot.  Now watch him burn(ett) me.

96. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF!

97. David Price – I know he’s been terrible in the 1st half.  Put it behind you.  You’re not trading for that.  You need alligator blood when you check raise to the bettor.

98. Adam Jones – I could’ve put Nyjer Morgan or Denard Span here, but who wants to read about them?  You want to read about how they could’ve been put here but weren’t.  Yeah, now that’s exciting.

99. Andre Ethier – His 2008 2nd half was so great that I had to put him on the list.  So, here he is.

100. Ben Zobrist – Zo!

101. Whoever Wins You The Championship – It’s now or never, people!  Make your move or lose.

Because Casey Kotchman is most noteworthy (in my eyes) for having the longest known case of mononucleosis, it makes sense he’d be considered a sleeper.  Only, not necessarily, a fantasy baseball sleeper.  More like a Prince Valium one.  After the trade to the Braves last year, Casey Kotchman hit 2/20/.237.  “Write him off as a once interesting prospect that never reached his potential,” says some random crotchety old baseball scout.  I hear ya, random old baseball crotchety scout, but I find something making me keep come back to him.  Sorta like my man-wood for Alex J. Gordon.  Maybe I can’t let a bad thing die.  This would explain every previous relationship that I’ve ever been in prior to the current one.  So what is it that excites me about Casey Kotchman in 2009 fantasy baseball?

In 373 ABs for the Angels last year, Kotchman hit 12/54/.287 before taking a dump with the Tomahawks.  Now whether his numbers plunged with the Braves because he wasn’t happy with the trade or because he wasn’t familiar with the NL pitchers, I’m not sure.  For someone who lost nine months of his life to a kissing disease that high schoolers rebound from after two weeks, anything is possible.  Either way, he is more of the hitter we saw pre-All-Star Break with the Angels than he was on the Braves.  He had a .325 average in the minors with Jason Kendall-esque power.  Kotchman pounds the ball into the ground way too much to be any sort of real power threat. (And he doesn’t have the speed to make all of those grounders worthwhile.)  I’d put Kotchman’s 2009 projections being near 70/16/85/.285/2.  Numbers that make him very comparable to James Loney or other first baseman sleeper Kendry Morales.  I know, it’s not a ringing endorsement, but considering Loney is near the top 20 for 1st basemen and Kotchman is being drafted with the likes of Kevin Millar and Lyle Overbay, Kotchman has sleeper potential.  So, let’s qualify how excited I am about Casey Kotchman.  Not really that excited.  If Mark Grace and Sean Casey had a baby, it’d look like Casey Kotchman.  How’s that for the least enthusiastic sleeper post ever?  You’re welcome!

I went through my top 100 and top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball and I chose a guy every 12 or so picks to make up my ideal team if I were in a Razzball Commenter League (so 12 team, 5×5, 5 OFs, etc.).  Obviously this is a team I probably would never get, because each draft unfolds differently, but if a draft unfolded exactly how I wanted it, this is how my best 2009 fantasy baseball draft would turn out.  But, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, I held myself to the false constraint of not being able to choose more than one guy every 12 picks, so I still didn’t get everyone I would’ve wanted.

C:  Jeff Clement
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Alexei Ramirez
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Chris Davis
MI:  Mark DeRosa
CI: Ryan Zimmerman
OF: Carlos Lee
OF: Matt Kemp
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Andre Ethier
OF: Shin-Soo Choo
UT: Elijah Dukes

P: Chad Billingsley
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Adam Wainwright
P: Matt Cain
P: Jose Valverde
P: Josh Johnson
P: Matt Capps
P: Joel Hanrahan
P: Wandy Rodriguez

BENCH:
P: Chris Ray
P: Jason Motte
P: Octavio Dotel

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

There’s no Reyes, Rollins or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or still are looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2009 fantasy baseball list.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Theriot/Jason Bartlett – Exactly the kind of late-round shortstop you should be targeting when you’re feeling light on speed.  They’d be a nice MI complement if you had Hardy as your shortstop.  And if you get scooped on Theriot, just grab Bartlett.

Brandon Wood – Earlier this offseason, I said this, “Not sure yet what the Angels of Bobby Grichville have planned for Wood in 2009, but he has eligibility at 3rd and SS, which gives him the Superfecta eligibility of MI and CI.  Keep in mind that he was booted from a winter league for his poor performance. (The same league where convicted pedophile Luis Polonia is now the career hits leader. No lie; he’s the Pete Rose of the Dominican.)”  And that’s me quoting me!

Clint Barmes – What if I told you he was going to out produce Yunel?  You’d say, “Is that a compliment?”

Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie – I wanted Lowrie to get the job just to put some flare in my MI spot, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.  Lugo looks like the man to beat at shortstop and he’s good for 25 steals.  Either man could be a late round sleeper for an MI spot in deep leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Remember that movie Clueless when they said, “As IF!”  When I read this shortstop’s name, I always hear it with that inflection, “As DRUBAL!”  Hmm… I’m pushing the Drubal pretty hard this offseason.  Well, he’s a cheap MI candidate so put that in your pipe and smoke it!  If you were, ya know, Popeye or Sherlock Holmes.

Is Evan Longoria a 2nd round pick?  Grey, me, I seemed to think so when I wrote up my 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20. Or did Grey, me, I get swept away with Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie in the arms of Madonna circa 1999? Did I lose the ability to rank Evan Longoria like Guy Ritchie lost the ability to make a kickass Steadicam shot? Am I good for nothing, except taking care of Rocco and their other kid? (Speaking of spoiled brats, for my birthday I got a pair of Heely’s — Free Your Sole!  If any of youse care, I have not broken my neck. Yet.  I really need to hire an 8-year-old to teach me how to use these things. Then again, that might’ve been how Pedroia’s brother got into trouble.  But I digress.) Now I’m 2nd guessing my 2nd round pick of Evan Longoria and you’re running in to tell your Mom, “Grey’s second guessing his 2009 fantasy baseball top 20!  Is the world no longer round?!”  It’s still round, youngen.  We just need to dig a little deeper on Longoria.

First, let me say what has me looking at Longoria a lot harder.  The BBTF did a breakdown of the Rays with ZIPS projections.  They have Longoria’s projections at 78/28/91/.264/6.  Waaaaay back in January, I said Evan Longoria’s 2009 projections would be 85/30/110/.275/7.  As you can see, my projections are more optimistic.  When you, or at least when I, look at those other projections I begin to wonder if Aramis a round or two later is better value than Longoria. (If curious, I have Aramis’s projections at 105/30/115/.295 from the 2009 fantasy baseball, top 20 third basemen and ZIPS has Aramis at 84/27/100/.289/1)

Included in the BBTF charts is a player profile where it goes over the possibility of certain stats being reached by Longoria.  There’s a 33% chance of Longoria hitting .275+ (only a 7% chance of him hitting .300+).  There’s a 38% chance of him hitting 30+ HRs (actually an 8% chance of him hitting 40 HRs) and a 17% chance of 10+ steals.  So what I’m taking away from those odds and projections is Longoria’s not going to hit .300, but he has some power to spare (and a bit of speed).  Aramis has no speed, a bit less power and more average.  Also, Longoria’s younger and rising while Aramis is a few years older and apparently plateauing.  Longoria also has more risk than Aramis.

For fantasy purposes, I’ll take more home runs and steals over average every day of the week and twice on Muesday (that’s Monday after 5 and before noon on Tuesday).  So I said Evan Longoria is a late 2nd rounder and I still agree.  Phew, a restoration of F.I.G — Faith In Grey.