Fantasy Baseball Advice

Finally, we come to the end of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  Okay, you know that I like Rickie Weeks better than Howie Kendrick in the top twenty 2nd basemen for 2009.  You know I like Conor Jackson better than James Loney as seen at the top twenty 1st basemen for 2009.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Rickie Weeks above Conor Jackson?  Nope.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a 2009 fantasy baseball top 300.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of how your team might be filling out.  For instance, if you have a shortstop already and Derek Jeter is still on the board in the 12th round, you don’t draft him if you see Zimmerman and you don’t have a 3rd baseman, even though Zimmerman may be below Jeter on this list.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Also, I already went over a Top 100 for 2009 Fantasy Baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater for 10 team leagues or for 12 team leagues.  That goes up to 600 players.  Or a list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300:

101. Jhonny Peralta – 2009 Projections: 85/25/90/.270/3
102. Francisco Cordero – 2009 Projections: 6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves
103. Bobby Jenks – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves
104. Adam Wainwright – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.60/1.20/150
105. Joba Chamberlain – 2009 Projections: 12-3/3.00/1.18/130 in 20 starts.
106. B.J. Ryan – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves
107. Adrian Beltre – 2009 Projections: 80/25/85/.270/10
108. Robinson Cano – 2009 Projections: 80/18/85/.310/3
109. Brian Fuentes – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves
110. Derek Jeter – 2009 Projections: 110/12/70/.305/12
111. Rafael Furcal – 2009 Projections: 95/15/65/.285/35
112. Michael Young – 2009 Projections: 100/10/85/.310/10
113. Ricky Nolasco – 2009 Projections: 11-8/4.00/1.15/160
114. A.J. Burnett – 2009 Projections: 13-9/4.15/1.30/140
115. Jose Lopez – Projections: 80/15/85/.280/5
116. Jon Lester – 2009 Projections: 15-7/4.00/1.30/150
117. Chien-Ming Wang – 2009 Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.30/120
118. Ryan Zimmerman – 2009 Projections: 80/20/90/.285/7
119. Kerry Wood – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves
120. Jorge Cantu – 2009 Projections: 80/25/90/.270/5
121. Kelly Johnson – 2009 Projections: 90/14/65/.285/10
122. Matt Cain – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.35/1.26/200
123. Yovani Gallardo – 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.50/1.25/150
124. Ryan Doumit – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.295/2
125. Chris Iannetta – 2009 Projections: 55/19/70/.265
126. Kelly Shoppach – 2009 Projections: 50/18/60/.260
127. Conor Jackson – 2009 Projections: 85/17/85/.300/10
128. Aaron Harang – 2009 Projections: 12-9/4.00/1.25/155
129. Jim Thome – 2009 Projections: 85/30/100/.250
130. James Loney – 2009 Projections: 75/17/85/.295/7
131. Erik Bedard – 2009 Projections: 9-6/3.35/1.15/140
132. Jose Valverde – 2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves
133. Mike Napoli – 2009 Projections: 55/23/65/.245/7
134. Javier Vazquez – 2009 Projections: 15-8/4.15/1.25/200
135. Pat Burrell – 2009 Projections: 70/30/85/.250
136. Milton Bradley – 2009 Projections: 60/18/75/.290/4
137. JD Drew – 2009 Projections: 80/22/75/.280/5
138. Jayson Werth – 2009 Projections: 95/17/70/.270/17
139. Coco Crisp – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.280/25
140. Carlos Gomez – 2009 Projections: 90/10/60/.260/40
141. Lastings Milledge – 2009 Projections: 75/18/90/.280/20
142. Xavier Nady – 2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275
143. Delmon Young – 2009 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/15
144. Miguel Tejada – 2009 Projections: 90/15/75/.285/7
145. Edwin Encarnacion – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.285/5
146. Mark DeRosa – 2009 Projections: 75/15/70/.280/5
147. Rickie Weeks – 2009 Projections: 90/15/60/.250/20
148. Alex Gordon – 2009 Projections: 85/22/90/.270/10
149. Carlos Marmol – 2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves
150. Cameron Maybin – 2009 Projections: 85/5/50/.280/40
151. David Price – 2009 Projections: 10-4/3.50/1.10/120
152. Max Scherzer – 2009 Projections: 9-3/3.25/1.20/100
153. Jered Weaver – 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.25/160
154. Justin Verlander – 2009 Projections: 15-9/4.00/1.30/160
155. Fred Lewis – 2009 Projections: 95/12/50/.270/25
156. Andre Ethier – 2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5
157. Zach Grienke – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.10/1.30/130
157 1/2. Ervin Santana – 2009 Projections:  11-6/3.75/1.20/125 in 20 starts
158. Matt Garza – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.50/1.25/140
159. Justin Upton – 2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7
160. Chris Young – 2009 Projections: 11-7/3.50/1.22/160
161. Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2009 Projections: 75/25/95/.270
162. Nelson Cruz – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.270/10
163. Travis Hafner – 2009 Projections: 60/22/85/.275
164. Bengie Molina – 2009 Projections: 50/15/70/.275
165. Ramon Hernandez – 2009 Projections: 55/17/75/.260
166. Pablo Sandoval – 2009 Projections: 60/14/65/.300
167. Chad Qualls – 2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves
168. Adam Jones – 2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12
169. Matt Wieters – 2009 Projections: 50/17/60/.290 or the Minors
170. Carlos Guillen – 2009 Projections: 80/14/80/.300/10
171. Josh Johnson – 2009 Projections: 13-6/3.75/1.32/140
172. Johnny Cueto – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.25/165
173. Nick Swisher – 2009 Projections: 70/30/80/.255
174. Brandon Morrow – 2009 Projections: 8-4/3.45/1.20/120
175. Kevin Slowey – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.17/130
176. John Danks – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160
177. Mark Reynolds – 2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7
178. Dallas McPherson – 2009 Projections: 60/20/80/.245/5
179. Mike Lowell – 2009 Projections: 75/20/85/.275
180. Chone Figgins – 2009 Projections: 95/5/55/.295/35
181. Jorge Posada – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.270
182. Brett Myers – 2009 Projections: 12-5/4.30/1.32/130
183. Ted Lilly – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.30/1.25/160
184. Ryan Dempster – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.50/1.35/120
185. Derek Lowe – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/140
186. Shin-Soo Choo – 2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11
187. Hank Blalock – 2009 Projections: 55/17/65/.280
188. Heath Bell – 2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves
189. Howie Kendrick – 2009 Projections: 70/7/55/.310/10
190. Joey Devine – 2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves
191. Brian Wilson – 2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves
192. Matt Capps – 2009 Projections: 1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves
193. Mike Gonzalez – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves
194. Clayton Kershaw – 2009 Projections: 11-6/4.20/1.40/140
195. Jair Jurrjens – 2009 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.35/150
196. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.20/1.40/165
197. Fausto Carmona – 2009 Projections: 14-9/4.00/1.25/120
198. Mike Jacobs – 2009 Projections: 65/28/75/.260
199. Adam LaRoche – 2009 Projections 70/26/80/.270
200. Gary Sheffield – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.255/7
201. Placido Polanco – 2009 Projections: 90/7/55/.310/7
202. Orlando Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/7/65/.280/20
203. Edgar Renteria – 2009 Projections: 80/9/70/.285/12
204. Yunel Escobar – 2009 Projections: 90/13/65/.300/3
205. Rick Ankiel – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.260
206. Denard Span – 2009 Projections: 90/8/60/.285/20
207. Juan Pierre – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
208. Willy Taveras – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
209. Mike Cameron – 2009 Projections: 70/22/75/.245/18
210. Frank Francisco – 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.32/60 and 25 Saves
211. Elijah Dukes – 2009 Projections: 75/20/70/.265/15
212. John Maine – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.85/1.35/150
213. Mike Aviles – 2009 Projections: 80/10/55/.295/10
214. Trevor Hoffman – 2009 Projections:  2-5/4.20/1.10/40 and 30 Saves
215. Brandon Lyon – 2009 Projections:  3-2/4.15/1.40/45 and 30 Saves
216. Joel Hanrahan – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/65 and 25 Saves
217. Chris Perez - 2009 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.35/55 and 20 Saves
218. Huston Street – 2009 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.15/55 and 20 Saves
219. George Sherrill – 2009 Projections: 2-4/4.50/1.40/50 and 15 Saves
220. Matt Lindstrom – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/50 and 25 Saves
221. Troy Percival – 2009 Projections:  1-3/5.00/1.45/30 and 15 Saves
222. Manny Corpas – 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.35/55 and 10 Saves
223. Hideki Matsui – 2009 Projections: 70/18/80/.285
224. Jose Arredondo – 2009 Projections: 5-2/2.25/1.00/60, 20 Holds
225. J.J. Putz – 2009 Projections: 6-2/3.00/1.20/75, 15 Holds and 7 Saves
226. Hong-Chih Kuo – 2009 projections:  4-2/3.25/1.15/65, 15 Holds
227. Randy Winn – 2009 Projections: 80/12/60/.290/17
228. David DeJesus – 2009 Projections: 70/12/75/.290/12
229. Jason Kubel - 2009 Projections: 80/20/80/.280
230. Scott Baker - 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.22/150
231. Andy Pettitte – 2009 Projections: 15-10/4.40/1.40/160
232. Hiroki Kuroda – 2009 Projections: 13-9/3.90/1.25/120
233. Justin Duchscherer – 2009 Projections: 5-7/3.85/1.15/70
234. Wandy Rodriguez – 2009 Projections: 10-7/3.75/1.30/160
235. Jeremy Guthrie – 2009 Projections: 12-10/3.90/1.25/130
236. Jeff Francoeur – 2009 Projections: 65/18/70/.260
237. Manny Parra – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.10/1.40/160
238. Rocco Baldelli – 2009 Projections: 50/12/50/.280/3
239. Chris Snyder – 2009 Projections: 55/18/70/.245
240. Jeff Clement – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.250
241. Jarrod Saltamacchia – 2009 Projections: 65/16/75/.265
242. Dioner Navarro – 2009 Projections: 50/10/60/.285
243. Jesus Flores – 2009 Projections: 50/14/65/.245
244. Taylor Teagarden – 2009 Projections: 50/18/65/.265
245. Oliver Perez – 2009 Projections: 14-10/4.50/1.42/190
246. Gavin Floyd – 2009 Projections: 12-11/4.50/1.32/140
247. Jeremy Bonderman – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.40/125
248. Armando Galarraga – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.26/110
249. Chris Carpenter – 2009 Projections: 9-5/3.70/1.27/110
250. Andy Sonnastine – 2009 Projections: 9-9/4.50/1.30/100
251. Joe Saunders – 2009 Projections: 11-7/4.15/1.26/95
252. Mike Pelfrey – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.50/1.40/100
253. Yadier Molina – 2009 Projections: 35/7/50/.270
254. Gerald Laird – 2009 Projections: 60/13/65/.270
255. Mark Buehrle – 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120
256. Chris Ray – 2009 Projections: 1-3/3.75/1.35/40 and 12 Saves
257. Hideki Okajima – 2009 Projections: 5-1/2.75/1.15/60, 24 Holds
258. Scott Downs – 2009 Projections: 4-5/2.50/1.20/60, 25 Holds
259. Scot Shields – 2009 Projections: 4-3/4.00/1.30/70, 27 Holds
260. Rafael Perez – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.50/1.15/70, 22 Holds
261. Matt Thornton – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.15/1.10/75, 17 Holds
262. Dan Wheeler – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.50/1.05/50, 12 Holds and 15 Saves
263. Grant Balfour – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.15/75, 22 Holds
264. Kaz Matsui – 2009 Projections: 65/5/40/.280/20
265. Freddy Sanchez – 2009 Projections: 80/10/60/.285
266. Orlando Hudson – 2009 Projections: 75/10/45/.280/5
267. Jason Motte – 2009 Projections:  4-3/3.50/1.00/65 and 10 Saves
268. Jeremy Hermida – 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7
269. Emmanuel Burriss – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
270. Eugenio Velez – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
271. Ian Stewart – 2009 Projections: 65/17/80/.265/5
272. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.275/10
273. Ryan Theriot – 2009 Projections: 90/2/40/.295/25
274. Yuniesky Betancourt – 2009 Projections: 65/10/65/.280/10
275. Khalil Greene – 2009 Projections: 65/20/80/.235/5
276. Clint Barmes – 2009 Projections: 75/12/55/.270/12
277. Elvis Andrus – 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20
278. Jed Lowrie – 2009 Projections: 75/10/80/.260/5
279. Octavio Dotel – 2009 Projections: 2-5/3.95/1.20/90, 20 Holds
280. Cory Wade – 2009 Projections: 5-4/3.15/1.10/55, 30 Holds
281. Tony Pena – 2009 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/55, 25 Holds
282.  Troy Glaus – 2009 Projections:  40/14/50/.250
283. Gil Meche – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.00/1.33/160
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150
285. Kenshin Kawakami – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.35/1.40/120
286. Chris Volstad – 2009 Projections: 10-7/4.00/1.30/110
287. Randy Johnson – 2009 Projections: 7-4/3.50/1.20/90
288. Dave Bush – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120
289. Paul Maholm – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150
290. Aaron Cook – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.36/90
291. Edwin Jackson – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120
292. John Smoltz – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.16/60
293. Adam Lind – 2009 Projections: 65/24/85/.275/4
294. Ryan Spilborghs – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.300/12
295. Franklin Gutierrez – 2009 Projections: 70/14/75/.260/16
296. Chase Headley – 2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8
297. Chris Dickerson – 2009 Projections: 55/15/50/.250/15
298. Michael Bourn – 2009 Projections: 70/4/30/.240/40
299. Matt Joyce – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.250
300. Wladimir Balentien – 2009 Projections: 60/22/65/.250/5
301. Travis Snider – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.280

After the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Together they can go 100/20/100/.285/10.  Platoon them in daily leagues.  Grey out.

No, this is not the bottom of the Top 20 2009 fantasy baseball rankings barrel.  No, next we’re not going to do the Top 20 Guys Who Will Have The Most Balks.  Chillax.  It’s one post.  The only fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s phrase) that seem to pay attention to Middle Relievers are those that play in a Holds league.  This is wrong, I tell ya.  A great way to balance out your ratios is by carrying a few middle relievers on your staff.  (BTW, Ron Jeremy can carry three middle relievers on his staff.)  Say you had Aaron Harang last year and he mistook your team’s ERA for his toilet, but you also had Waking Joey Devine.  With just Harang, you had the unsightly dump of a 4.78 ERA.  With Devine and his brand new toilet brush, you had a 3.95 ERA.  Voila, snitches!  If you also carried Brad Ziegler, you had a combined 3.36 ERA.  Not to mention, you had saves when Ziegler took over for Street.  Middle relievers can also help balance out your junky closers.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 middle relievers for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Carlos Marmol – It should be Marmol closing, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Five virtual dollars say Piniella pulls the ol’ “Gregg has closer experience” card.  All Mr. B’s will be smiling.  2009 projections can be found at the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

2. Joey Devine – If he becomes the closer, which he should, Ziegler doesn’t replace him at the number two spot.  I’d place Ziegler further down the list.  Devine’s 2009 projections can also be found at the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jose Arredondo -  I don’t think Arredondo is a necessary handcuff for Fuentes owners.  I think Fuentes will be fine and I think Shields might step in for him even if he’s not fine.  Arredondo can be worthwhile to own anyway.  2009 Projections:  5-2/2.25/1.00/60, 20 Holds

4. J.J. Putz – He didn’t rank higher for me because I have no idea how he’ll react to being a setup man instead of a reliever.  I think he’ll be fine, but we shall see.  2009 Projections:  6-2/3.00/1.20/75, 15 Holds and 7 Saves

5. Hideki Okajima – Since the Japanese have their last names first, does that mean there’s a better chance Hideki Okajima and Hideki Matsui are related than Hideki and Kaz Matsui?  2009 Projections:  5-1/2.75/1.15/60, 24 Holds

6. Scott Downs – A lefty that can get out righties equals a guy who can find work even in a recession.  (Speaking of the recession, it feels like yesterday that everyone was randomly buying stocks simply because they started with an “e” — eToys, eTrade, eBay. The stock symbol is ERR?  That sounds wonderful!  Give me 500 shares!  Then, I got to the point where I bought shares just because I was hungry.  Give me 1000 shares of Boston Market and a breast and a thigh!  The moral of this story?  Don’t buy stocks on an empty stomach.  But I detour.)  2009 Projections:  4-5/2.50/1.20/60, 25 Holds

7. Scot Shields – Any true connoisseurs of middle relievers have owned Shields at least once in their fantasy baseball playing days.  His ranking now is more dependent on consistency, Ks and Holds than on his ratios helping you as much. 2009 Projections:  4-3/4.00/1.30/70, 27 Holds

8. Rafael Perez – Something happens to Wood, Perez might fall into the closing job.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.50/1.15/70, 22 Holds

9. Matt Thornton – His K/9 rate is purdy.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.15/1.10/75, 17 Holds

10. Dan Wheeler – When Percival accidentally steps on his glasses like Burgess Meredith in that Twilight Zone episode, Wheeler will step in.  He’s a good MR and a very good handcuff.  2009 Projections:  3-2/3.50/1.05/50, 12 Holds and 15 Saves

11. Grant Balfour – Don’t think Balfour steps in for Percy as often as Wheeler.  2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.15/75, 22 Holds

12. Octavio Dotel – Strikes out a lot hitters and gives up a lot of home runs.  It’s like he only pitches to Dunn or Cust.  Hey, if Dunn and Cust are dining together and neither wants the reservation under their name they can leave it under K. Dunnst.  2009 Projections:  2-5/3.95/1.20/90, 20 Holds

13. Cory Wade – In the most random prediction of the 2009 preseason, I’m going to say Wade leads the NL in Holds.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  2009 Projections:  5-4/3.15/1.10/55, 30 Holds

14. Tony Pena – Pena always ranks up the Holds and might be a challenger for Cory Wade in the race for the most boring preseason prediction of NL Holds leader.  2009 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/55, 25 Holds

15. Jon Rauch – I like Qualls for cheap saves in 2009, but you just never know when a guy gets the job for the first time.  His leash is usually a lot shorter.  I think Rauch would be his handcuff over Pena.  2009 Projections:  2-2/3.50/1.20/65, 20 Holds

16. Hong-Chih Kuo – If Broxton proves to be a Cuddle Boy then Kuo may end up with some saves too.  I don’t think Broxton will end up that way.  It’s a Cust Kayin’ scenario.  2009 projections:  4-2/3.25/1.15/65, 15 Holds

17. Damaso Marte – My favorite title I wrote last year?  Glad you asked.  I like this one.  Feel free to search the site and find your own favorite.  Anyway, I wouldn’t own Marte outside of Holds leagues, but in Holds leagues he’s in a good spot to accumulate some.  2009 Projections: 4-5/4.15/1.24/65, 25 Holds

18. Joel Zumaya – His walks and Guitar Hero skills worry me.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.35/55, 15 Holds

19. Rafael Betancourt – Cuddle Boy.  2009 Projections:  Great MR numbers,

20. Kyle McClellan – He’s only here because he recorded 30 Holds last year.  I don’t think he approaches that number this year, but LaRussa always manages to get some “6th starter” a lot of Holds.  Pay close attention to who LaRussa’s abusing this year.  2009 Projections:   Holds, dawg.

After the top 20 middle relievers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Taylor Buchholz – I have my doubts about his breakout in two-oh-oh-eight and this is one MR I worry about  (that’s not worrying about an MRI, for those quick readers).  2009 Projections:  2-3/3.25/1.18/50, 20 Holds

J.P. Howell – Really came into his own out of the bullpen.  If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son’s success.  2009 Projections:  3-1/3.25/1.18/80, 17 Holds

After I posted the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there was a public outcry in the comments.  Where is so and so?!  It was as if I butchered their bunny rabbit like the Roger and Me lady.  No one’s butchering your bunny rabbit, friend.  Your bunny rabbit’s fine.  Unfortunately, I don’t think your bunny rabbit’s a top 40 starter.  Your bunny rabbit, friend, is a top 60 starter.  How’s dem carrots?  BTW, while the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings are the gospel, they aren’t set in stone.  I update them occasionally.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier of these starters.  This tier I call, “Guys I took grief for leaving off my top 40 starters list.”  Every other ‘pert has Verlander in the 25 to 30 range.  There’s lots of anecdotal evidence why he wasn’t that good last year.  The new pitching coach picked out a flaw in his mechanics, at Tigerfest Verlander admitted his arm was tired from 2006, Inge’s butt pats aren’t as firm as Pudge’s, etc.  Maybe these things are true, or maybe no one wants to admit Verlander is not the pitcher he showed in 2006.  In 2006, Verlander left a huge amount of baserunners on.  His ERA that year was 3.63.  His FIP ERA, which is basically ERA without fielding, was 4.35.  So he was really a 4.35 ERA pitcher the year that he was tremendous.  Then throw in his Ks have gone down, his walks have gone up.  I purposely left him off the top 40 starters because I don’t want him on any team at the spot he’s being drafted.  In the end, Verlander is a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP pitcher.  That’s fine, it’s just not a 25 to 30 range pitcher like others would have you believe.  2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160

42. Zach Grienke – I think Rudy’s 20 risky pitchers post says it all on Greinke.  I’m especially concerned this year about pitchers who went from reliever to starter in the last two years.  Remember Reliever to Starter to DL.  It’s not that I won’t draft one, I just want to preach caution.  Then you throw in the fact, Greinke’s two years removed from a nervous breakdown and he plays for the Royals.  Put on the breaks, people.  The Royals are not this year’s Rays.  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130 and starts missed.

43. Brett Myers – See Greinke, Zach or 1/18th of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  12-5/4.30/1.32/130 and starts missed.

44. Ted Lilly – Also mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  Caveat emptor as they say in Honduras.  2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160

45. Ryan Dempster – See Myers, Brett then see Greinke, Zach then see 20 risky pitchers post.  I’m probably most concerned about Dempster from this tier.  His 2008 screams outlier.  Here, listen… Dempster’s 2008 season, “Outlier!”  See?  2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120 and starts missed.

46. Derek Lowe – This is a new tier.  I call this tier, “Guys I’d draft to be my third or fourth starter.”  This tier goes from here to Kuroda.  Derek Lowe has proven himself to be a reliable workhorse, just nothing that flashy in the K department.  A steady pitcher from one or two of your starters helps you when you take fliers on other guys cough David Price cough.  I already went over Derek Lowe’s move to the Braves in detail.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.22/140

47. Clayton Kershaw – The walks worry me.  52 in 107.2 innings is P to the lenty.  That’s why he’s this low.  The Ks have me excited.  He’s definitely worth a flier.  I do think he can outperform this ranking.  2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140

48. Jair Jurrjens – There’s concern about his jump in pitches/innings last year from the previous year, but he throws a low percentage of curves/sliders and lots of sinking fastballs.  He’s not going to be an ace, but there’s good reason to believe he can be a solid number two to three.  2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150

49. Ubaldo Jimenez – Walk numbers like Kershaw but in Coors would usually lead me to tell you to pass, but his stuff is nasty.  Like first name ain’t baby nasty.  I’d be careful about the leagues where I grabbed Jimenez though.  Walks in Coors could explode in your face in any league shallower than 12 team ones.  2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165

50. Fausto Carmona – Didn’t like him last year.  I like him this year.  Last year, he had a lot going against him.  This year he still has no Ks against him.  So I don’t like him that much.  Everything in moderation, except moderation. You can quote me on that or whoever I just bogarted it from.  2009 Projections:  14-9/4.00/1.25/120

51. John Maine – He was pitching hurt last year and losing some speed on his fastball when he looked like crizz-ap.  I don’t think he’s going to be an ace, but he could move up these rankings if he is indeed healthy in the spring, which he is claiming he will be.  2009 Projections:  13-7/3.85/1.35/150

52. Scott Baker – Mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post and had a high amount of men left on base, but has enough ability to induce strikeouts to make me like him to an extent.  I’m a bit of a whore for Ks if you haven’t noticed. 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150

53. Andy Pettitte – I don’t want Pettitte in all leagues just those AL-Only ones.  He’s way past the point of “accidentally” backing his ass up into a Clemens syringe.  2009 Projections:  15-10/4.40/1.40/160

54. Hiroki Kuroda – Doesn’t have the K/9 ratio to get too excited about and he was one of the largest FLAKES in the majors last year.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.90/1.25/120

55. Oliver Perez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Pelfrey.  I call this tier.  “No thanks.”  Perez can be great.  Doesn’t matter, I’m off him like black off rice.  2009 Projections:  14-10/4.50/1.42/190

56. Gavin Floyd – Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.  I just threw up a little in Gavin Floyd’s mouth.  2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140

57. Jeremy Bonderman – Bonderman’s career took a left turn down an alley in the red light district of Amsterdam and now it’s living with an STD in Copenhagen and it changed its name to Jan Lingön Strudel.  Until Jan Lingön Strudel shows me a year where he’s worthwhile, I’m not drafting him.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.40/125

58. Armando Galarraga – He had a FIP (ERA independent of fielding) of 4.88 compared to his real world 3.88.  Or, I guess, imaginary world.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  9-10/4.50/1.26/110

59. Chris Carpenter – There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.  It’s not worth the ulcer.  2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110 in 20 starts

60. Andy Sonnastine – Not that you thought I was a prostitute, but I wouldn’t touch him if you paid me.  Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  If you want to read a contrary opinion, Fangraphs likes him in 2009.  You say tomato, I say marginal starter who doesn’t strikeout enough hitters. 2009 Projections:  9-9/4.50/1.30/100

61. Joe Saunders – What I said about Sonnastine² 2009 Projections:  11-7/4.15/1.26/95

62. Mike Pelfrey – What I said about Sonnastine³ Also, mentioned in the 20 risky pitcher post.  2009 Projections:  10-10/4.50/1.40/100

63. Justin Duchscherer – Because this awful tier just won’t end, I had to make this the top 63 starters plus 2 post.  Are you happy with yourself, Justin Dook-sheer?  2009 Projections:  5-7/3.85/1.15/70 and missed starts.

After the top 60 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Wandy Rodriguez – I already went over why Wandy’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  If you don’t want to read it, that’s on you.  2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160

Jeremy Guthrie – Anyone who has read Razzball for longer than a minute (not an Urbandictionary minute which is actually long) knows that I love me some Guthrie.  Hopefully he continues to be underrated.  2009 Projections:  12-10/3.90/1.25/130

With the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for every position in the bizz-ag.  We turn our conjunctivitis-tainted eye towards the top 100 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  This should have you skipping around like a little school girl.  I love Razzball and the Jonas Brothers! If you’ve been following the top 20 position rankings, this top 100 shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.  I’ve basically just placed guys in order for the bigger picture for when you’re doing your fantasy baseball 2009 drafting thing-a-ma-whozie-watts.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Hold it up to the light and it will say, “Win your 2009 fantasy baseball league, young premature balding man,” or some shizz.  For another perspective, our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater goes to the 616th ranked player.  Also, to help with your drafting, here’s a list of players with multiple position eligibility.  Or read why some of your favorite pitchers are not here but in Rudy’s top 20 risky pitchers post.  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2009 fantasy baseball, including projections:

1. Hanley Ramirez – Legit 35/35 threat at shortstop.  The iffy shoulder worries me a bit, but he has shown to be resilient.  2009 Projections:  125/37/80/.295/35

2. Jose Reyes – He’s like your brain on Jolt and coke.  2009 Projections:  125/15/70/.290/60

3. David Wright – And he helped a Baldwin win a challenge on The Celebrity Apprentice!  2009 Projections:  110/33/120/.310/14

4. Albert Pujols – One of these days he’s just going to get a bionic elbow and you’ll never have to worry about him again.  Which reminds me, who’s older right now –  Albert Pujols or Lee Majors?  2009 projections:  105/35/110/.335/5

5. Miguel Cabrera – If Miguel Olivo was around to hug him, he’d hit 50 HRs.  (<–It’s called a hunch, people!)  2009 Projections:  100/39/125/.305

6. Grady Sizemore – Better 30/30 threat than Hanley?  2009 Projections:  110/37/85/.285/30

7. Ryan Braun – Best Jewish player since Gene Simmons.  2009 Projections:  100/40/110/.280/15

8. Ryan Howard – They should have a Battle of the Network Stars-type activity at the All-Star Game where someone like David Eckstein has to rickshaw Ryan Howard around the bases.  Why am I not in charge of the ASB activities? 2009 Projections:  100/45/140/.265

9. Johan Santana – First guy on this list I don’t draft where I have him listed.  I’d grab Johan early in the 3rd round, if he were there.  2009 Projections:   18-6/2.95/1.12/210

10. Chase Utley – I’m pretty confident Utley moves up to the ninth spot on this list when he shows up to spring training healthy.  2009 Projections:  105/29/105/.295/10

11. Mark Teixiera – No speed, but as good as a lock for his projections as anyone.  2009 Projections:  110/35/125/.310

12. Tim Lincecum – Innings were pretty high last year, and he’s ranked at 13.  Superstitious? 2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210

13. Carlos Beltran – Steady as they go and uncanny resemblance to Ricky from My So Called Life.  2009 Projections:  110/27/115/.275/22

14. Ian Kinsler – People seem to think he’s going to be the new Chase Utley.  The problem with that is Kinsler might bat .260 this year; Utley won’t.  2009 Projections:  110/23/80/.280/25

15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not getting younger and at some point he’s going to go from a 40 steal guy to a 30 steal guy.  Cust kayin’.   2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40

16. Prince Fielder – Surprised he doesn’t request the Brewers add a Tofurky Dog to the wiener race.  2009 Projections:  85/40/110/.285

17. Carlos Lee – I know you want the Longoria upside, but safe pick in the 2nd round and risky pick in the 12th round wins championships.  2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7

18. Lance Berkman – See Lee, Carlos or one-sixteenth of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  100/32/100/.300/7

19. Evan Longoria – Choose your own adventure.  Get upside in the 2nd round?  Or get upside in the 10th round? 2009 Projections:  85/30/110/.275/7

20. Alfonso Soriano – Al-So is somehow being underrated all of a sudden.  Sure, he’s a Latin 33 but whatevs.  2009 Projections:  110/32/85/.275/15

21. Matt Holliday – He hit 25 home runs last year calling Coors home.  Zoinks!  2009 Projections:  90/22/105/.310/12

22. Josh Hamilton – I’ve gone over why Josh Hamilton is overrated.  2009 Projections:  95/30/110/.295/7

23. Brandon Phillips – When someone can point out to me exactly how Phillips isn’t better for his value than Kinsler, I’ll move Phillips down the list.  Or up.  Or whatever.  2009 Projections:  90/25/80/.270/25

24. Justin Morneau – I’m skipping Morneau for Votto or someone else.  2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285

25. Aramis Ramirez – I’m targeting Aramis over Longoria in most of my drafts.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

26. Carlos Quentin – Love CQ, hate Roman Coppola.  2009 Projections:  105/35/110/.275/7

27. Jake Peavy – He can easily be better than Sabathia, Lincecum and Webb.  2009 Projections:   15-6/2.95/1.10/205

28. B.J. Upton – If he shows the power of 2007 and the speed of 2008, watch out.  2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35

29. Carl Crawford – I didn’t like him ranked at 14 last year but I like him at 30 this year.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  85/15/80/.300/45

30. Matt Kemp – I love Matt Kemp this year.  2009 Projections:   95/24/80/.295/30

31. Adrian Gonzalez – He’s battling Petco, and he’s still beating Morneau’s power numbers.  2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280

32. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s another guy I won’t have on any teams, but he is what he is.  2009 Projections:  110/7/50/.315/35

33. CC Sabathia – Hopefully he doesn’t have an April in New York like he had in 2008.  2009 Projections:  18-7/3.20/1.10/200

34. Cole Hamels – Even Philly phans are worried about the extra innings.  2009 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.10/195

35. Alex Rios – He should go 20/20.  Then again, he should’ve went 20/20 last year.  Thought bubble, “Rios should be ranked lower.”  Leave me alone, thought bubble!  2009 Projections:  85/25/90/.295/20

36. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuk a lot last year.  He’s not quite the steal anymore, but I do still like him.  2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295

37. Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!  No, I am Sparkakis!  2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10

38. Alexei Ramirez – This high because the shallowness of shortstops.  (That’s not implying shortstops only read Perez Hilton and talk about their nails.)  If he’s not eligible at shortstop, then he drops about ten spots.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.285/15

39. Brandon Webb – Win karma’s gonna get you, knock you right on your head.  2009 Projections:   16-10/3.30/1.20/180

40. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

41. Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia overrated. (<–You click)  2009 Projections:  110/15/75/.310/15

42. Shane Victorino – I love The Flying Hawaiian.  Like love love.  2009 Projections:  100/15/60/.285/35

43. Brian Roberts – I hate Brian Roberts.  On the left side of the screen, a mouth says, “H” and on the right side of the screen another mouth says “ate.”  Then they come together in the middle of the screen to form “Hate.”  2009 Projections:  105/10/50/.285/30

44. Dan Haren – I don’t draft pitchers until later, but I could see a scenario where Haren’s on one of my teams.  2009 Projections:  16-7/3.40/1.15/195

45. David Ortiz – Big Papi is a Latin 33 and aging rapidly.  2009 Projections:  85/27/110/.285

46. Chipper Jones – 120 games of solid and 40 games of waiver wire pickups.  2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

47. Jacoby Ellsbury – A cheaper, slightly riskier Victorino?  Pee to erhaps.  2009 Projections:  110/10/60/.285/40

48. Jason Bay – He was sofa king bad in 2007, that it’s hard for me to trust again.  2009 Projections:  100/32/110/.280/10

49. Nate McLouth – The only drawback for McLouth is you have to watch the Pirates highlights to see how he did, and there are no Pirates highlights.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22

50. Curtis Granderson – Vladdy’s your baby’s daddy, but Grandy is dandy.  2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17

51. Manny Ramirez – This is assuming he plays somewhere.  2009 Projections:  85/30/90/.300

52. Roy Halladay – Careful expecting lots of Ks.  2009 Projections:  16-6/3.50/1.10/165

53. Corey Hart – 80s one hit wonder reemerges to give you a 20/20 season and an iffy average.  2009 Projections:  75/22/80/.275/20

54. Roy Oswalt – 12 to 6′er who’s the big three-one.  2009 Projections:  15-9/3.75/1.15/150

55. Vladimir Guerrero – Beginning to run like the Ruskie he might be named after.  2009 Projections:  85/27/100/.310/5

56. Joey Votto – The Reds might actually be good this year.  Seriously.  Seriously!  SERIOUSLY!  2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12

57. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter has Cy Young stuff.  2009 Projections:  16-10/3.75/1.20/175

58. Dan Uggla – Mini Dunn. 2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.255/5

59. Adam Dunn – Regular-sized Dunn. 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5

60. Jonathan Papelbon – I’ll take Broxton around the 10th round as my first closer off the board.  2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves

61. John Lackey – Dazzling at times might be outshined by Weaver this year.  2009 Projections:  16-11/3.60/1.22/175

62. Joe Nathan – If I were the type to take a top closer, I’d grab Lidge because of the Ks.  2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves

63. Brad Lidge – See Nathan, Joe or one-eightteenth of an inch above.  2009 Projections:  5-4/2.50/1.20/100, 40 saves

64. Brian McCann – A catcher in the top 100?  You’ve got to be kidding me.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

65. Geovany Soto – Why would you draft a guy that could give you Melvin Mora numbers at 65?  Because he’s at catcher?  That’s foolish, fool.  2009 Projections:  70/26/100/.280

66. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee seems like he’s beginning to get a bad rap.  I’m beginning to think I’m going to end up with him on some teams.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8

67. Garrett Atkins – No one wants to believe his year to year declines in home runs.  According to my projections, neither do I.  2009 Projections:  80/24/90/.290

68. Magglio Ordonez – Not a big fan of outfielders that project to 24 HRs and very little speed.  2009 Projections:  85/24/105/.310/3

69. Bobby Abreu – BA may be 12/12 outfielder as soon as this year.  That’s worrisome.  2009 Projections:  110/17/100/.300/20

70. Mariano Rivera – Good value for a top closer, but I still won’t own him.  2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves

71. Francisco Rodriguez – K-Whatever.  Don’t fall into this trizz-ap.  2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves

72. Carlos Delgado – I’m not sure about his reemergence last year to the point where I’m reaching for Votto and passing on Delgado.  2009 Projections:  80/31/110/.260

73. Carlos Pena – Pena worries me less than Delgado.  (Hey, wasn’t Pena Delgado the name of a character Javier Bardem played?)  2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265

74. Joe Mauer – His numbers are so silly awful compared to the players around him it really illustrates why you shouldn’t draft a catcher in the top 100.  If I were to remove his name from his stats, you would think he should be ranked around 200th.  2009 Projections:  95/12/80/.320/3

75. James Shields – My first pitcher off the board in a lot of leagues.  2009 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.14/165

76. Chad Billingsley – Another pitcher I’m very high on.  If you want to know more, search for Billingsley in the left sidebar Search thingamajig.  2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200

77. Johnny Damon – Damon’s getting to that age where he’s about to recite Pacino from Scent of a Woman.  I’m too old, I’m too tired and I’m… Actually, I don’t think Damon’s blind.  2009 Projections:  105/15/70/.285/20

78. Jermaine Dye – Boring, but productive.  2009 Projections:  80/30/90/.275/3

79. Victor Martinez – Even if he bounces back, Doumit can put up enough numbers 40 spots later.  2009 Projections:  65/18/95/.300

80. Russell Martin – Don’t take a catcher in the first 100.  2009 Projections:  95/15/70/.285/10

81. Chris Davis -  If he hits .260 instead of .275, he’ll still be worth it.  This is a trust exercise.  Fall into Chris Davis’s arms.  2009 Projections:   75/30/95/.275/3

82. Aubrey Huff – I will not have him on any team.  2009 Projections:  75/22/75/.280

83. Scott Kazmir – Take what I said about Huff and then factor in he’s a pitcher.  2009 Projections:  15-7/3.65/1.30/180

84. Rich Harden – What I Said About Huff + What I Said About Kazmir * 2 = Harden.  2009 Projections:  12-4/2.75/1.10/160

85. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His WHIP scares me too much.  2009 Projections: 14-7/3.90/1.30/160

86. Cliff Lee – His entire career minus 2005 and 2008 scares me.  2009 Projections:  15-10/3.75/1.22/150

87. Carlos Zambrano – Dusty managed him for how many years?  2009 Projections:  14-9/3.90/1.30/150

88. Edinson Volquez – I’m not going to recapitulate (16th Century Word of the Day) everything I’ve said up to this point in other posts, but I like Cueto better.  Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.33/175

89. Raul Ibanez – Ibanez bores me, but the move to Citizen’s Bank excites me.  Conflicted!  2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3

90. Vernon Wells – Ibanez without Citizen’s Bank.  2009 Projections:  85/24/95/.280/7

91. Torii Hunter – Abreu without the average.  2009 Projections:  85/24/85/.275/17

92. Jay Bruce – Sweet, sweet upside.  Sweet, sweet…  2009 Projections:  85/30/90/.280/10

93. Ryan Ludwick – Cards site said this about Ludwick.  2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.275/3

94. Joakim Soria – I’d love to grab Soria, but I feel like he might be going too high in drafts.  2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves

95. Jonathan Broxton – The first closer off the board I could conceivably land.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves

96. Stephen Drew – It’s insane how few shortstops are on this list.   Insane, I tell ya.  2009 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/7

97. J.J. Hardy – I mean, there’s no shortstops at all.  Maybe I could’ve boosted Jeter into the top 100, but he gets laid a lot.  He doesn’t need any extra favors.  2009 Projections:  85/25/80/.275/3

98. Krispie Young – Chris B. is phonetically Krispie.  Welcome to Razzball.  Nice to meet you.  2009 Projections:  80/25/80/.245/20

99. Brad Hawpe – When I see Vernon Wells and Raul Ibanez go way before Hawpe, I laugh.  On the inside.  2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280

100. Hunter Pence – Numbers aren’t that far off from Carlos Lee.  I will call you, Lanky Lee.  2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10

101. Felix Hernandez – Your staff is complete with F-Her on it.  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.33/190

102. Francisco Liriano – The Fran?  The Leer?  The Twin Cities Treat?  If Liriano returns to form this year, we’re gonna need a nickname.  2009 Projections:  11-5/3.25/1.25/160

103. Troy Tulowitzki – Making up for lack of shortstops boosts Tulo, but there’s really no reason to reach for a shortstop when there’s so many middling middle infielders.  2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5

After the top 100 for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Conor Jackson – A white Derrek Lee.  2009 Projections:  85/17/85/.300/10

Ryan Zimmerman – Some of you may find it a bit queer (stop giggling!) that I’m now touting Zimmerman after how much I didn’t like him last year.  Guess what, ya’ll?  That was last year.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

Phew.  The 2009 fantasy baseball rankings come to a semi-close with the top 20 closers for 2009.  (I say semi-close, cause I will tweak them from time to time and I’m going to have a top 100 and 300 overall soon too.)  The top 20 closers are a bit different than all of the other lists.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  The 2009 projections are a bit wonky too since you can’t predict how many saves a closer is going to get.  I mean, you just can’t.  To the point where some well-respected projections…ers don’t even attempt to.  Saves come down to opportunity.  Also, I’ll have a separate post shortly for every team’s closer.  For a broad idea of where players are in relation to each other, see the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Jonathan Papelbon – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here to K-Rod.  I call this tier, “These guys are terrific, but I’m not going to own any of them.”  Familiarize yourself with commandment number one — SAGNOF.  In this case it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  This means that if someone is getting saves then they are worth owning.  It’s like you’re going hogging — all the time.  You’re never going for pretty, high-priced closers.  They’ll get you in trouble.  2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves

2. Joe Nathan – There’s no reason to get a high-priced closer.  Think about it. You just want saves from them. So you care if you get 40 saves from Nathan or 40 saves from Nationals schmohawk closer to be named later?  2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves

3. Brad Lidge – I’ve seen Lidge underrated in some drafts so he might be one top closer I end up with.  Are people worried that Pujols is going to be facing him in every ninth inning of every game?  Lidge offers you close to 100 Ks, that’s worth the high pick alone.  2009 Projections:  5-4/2.50/1.20/100, 40 saves

4. Mariano Rivera – Doode’s going to be 39 for the 2009 season.  I’m not saying this is the year it all falls apart, but I don’t wanna be the last one to shut off the lights on the Mariano Rivera Is A Top Tiered Closer Party.  2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves

5. Francisco Rodriguez – It’s been written so many times before that he’s not going to save 60 games again that I’ll simply say yup. “Yup.”  2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves

6. Joakim Soria – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.”  In reality, there’s probably a few tiers in the closer ranks and when I’m going over $12 Salads, Donkey-corns and Brain Freezes, I’ll go into more detail.  As for Soria, I’m worried that he’s slowly becoming overrated as we head towards 2009 drafts.  He’s going to be good, but remember SAGNOF.  2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves

7. Jonathan Broxton – Unfortunately, the Dodgers already committed to Broxton for 2009 over Saito.  I say unfortunately because I knew Broxton would be the closer, but with Saito in the picture there was more of a chance to steal Broxton in a draft.  Oh, well.  Gotta pay to play.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves

8. Francisco Cordero – Alex, Closers for $200.  The question is, “35 saves looks like what?”  Francisco Cordero.  2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves

9. Bobby Jenks – If someone finds Jenks’s strikeouts, do return them.  2009 Projections:  3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves

10. B.J. Ryan – Was a surprise to me that Ryan was able to have such a productive 2008, but that’s all in the past and now I’m recommending him.  If he has a personal vendetta against me, then he’ll have a subpar year.  We shall see.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves

11. Brian Fuentes – I ran over what I thought Fuentes could do in 2009 and I kept coming up with stats that are near those of Wood, Valverde and others that are below him.  That’s how he ended up here, if you were wondering.  2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves

12. Kerry Wood – Yes, the thought of handcuffing yourself to Betancourt or Jensen Lewis is frightening, but Wood showed he can excel as a closer as long as he stays healthy.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves

13. Jose Valverde – I can’t shake the feeling that he’s going to explode at some point, but he’s shown enough the last two years to think I’m just being paranoid.  Did you just say something about me?  2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves

14.  Chad Qualls – This might be my number one closer on every team and I’ll be more than happy with that.  I love guys who have been around the block and are getting their first shot at closing.  They’re almost always underrated.  Throw the Win-Loss projection out the window and look at the ERA, WHIP, Ks and Saves for Qualls.  Those aren’t farfetched numbers.  2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves

15. Carlos Marmol – He’s only this low because no one in the Cubs organization has said Marmol is the Cubs 2009 closer.  When someone says that, he moves up.  Not until then.  2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves

16. Heath Bell – Heath falls into the same category as Chad Qualls.  Guys that you think aren’t worth anything because they’ve never been the closer before.  Just grab Bell late and collect his 30 saves.  2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves

17. Joey Devine – Devine falls into the same category as Marmol.  He’ll shoot up these rankings if he’s officially appointed the A’s 2009 closer.  And Brad Ziegler will magically replace him if he’s named the closer.  2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves

18. Brian Wilson – Really the only thing that has him on the list and not lumped with Lindstrom, Corpas, etc in Huston Street’s blurb is the season Wilson just had in 2008.  And saves are not really a stat that translate well from year to year… Well, what I’m saying is I think I overrated Wilson.  Closers lose their jobs all the time and I think Wilson loses his in 2009, but that’s more of a hunch than anything.  2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves

19. Matt Capps – If Rinku and Dinesh can get the ball to Capps, all will be right in Steel City.  Gabaz!  2009 Projections:  1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves

20. Mike Gonzalez – He could be one of those late round fliers that ends up giving you 35 saves.  Or, um, 25 saves.  Recognize!  2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves

After the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of guys, but these two stand out:

Huston Street – Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated for this entire post, SAGNOF — If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.  That goes for Lindstrom, Corpas, Ray, Hoffman, Chris Perez, Lyon, Percival, Jim Belushi in a gorilla costume, etc.  2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves

Joel Hanrahananananan – What if I said during last year’s preseason Brian Wilson could save 41 games, would you have believed me?  Remember that when looking at Hanarahananananan at the end of your draft.  2009 Projections:  Saves, who cares what else?