Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Some closer battles have not been squared away yet.  The Cubs are still holding Gregg over Marmol’s head, the Cards are still reluctant to say Perez, the A’s might split duties between Devine and Ziegler and the Mariners are looking forward to 2010.  Personally, I think the Cubs will split Marmol and Gregg 75/25, taking a little value away from Marmol and adding a lot of value to Gregg.  If Gregg gets any saves, he’s worth a spot on your roster.  I think Devine should and will be the closer for the majority of the year.   I think the Cards will go with Perez out of the gate and he’ll be the closer for the majority of the year.  Though his leash will be short, making Motte a good late flier.  Other good late fliers for the MR. B’s out there who are looking for saves are Jensen Lewis, Chris Ray, Wheeler, Balfour, C.J. Wilson and Corpas.   Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
21. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
23. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
27. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Huston Street, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Followers of Razzball know this site has a concise strategy when it comes to saves: SAGNOF. In short, 30 saves is 30 saves, so why pay Papelbon for the privilege of providing them, when you can get them on the cheap from Brian Wilson?

Followers of Baron Von Vulturewins know that the Baron is the greediest, horniest, dirtiest, most shameless saves-whore around. (For patented strategy, see comment under this post. How shameless? Well, if the Baron found Jensen Lewis lying dead by the side of the road, he’d shake the corpse by the ankles just to see if five saves fell out. (Last year, 13 fell out.)

In short, me love the Junky Closers.

A common objection is this: Sure, Junky Closers give you dirty, dirty saves, but just how much will Joe Borowski/Brian Wilson/C.J. Wilson/Carnie Wilson hurt my team in other categories? Won’t he poop all over my team ERA and WHIP while hurting me in Ks?

To which the Baron says: Good question. Let the numbers speak!

Let’s start with ERA. In my regular league (12 team mixed league roto), we play with a 1300 IP maximum, which is pretty standard. Last year, the winning ERA was 3.25. (Dude had Halladay.) Now, I’m no mathemagician, but in that scenario, that means the pitchers on Team X – let’s call them the Dribbling Nozzles – gave up roughly 469 runs.

Now, let’s say that the Nozzles carried a Mint Closer like Nathan all year (39 saves, 1.33 ERA), who gave up just 10 ER. Now let’s replace Nathan with a year’s worth of Junky Closer/SAGNOF favorite/obese housebound harmonizing genius Brian Wilson (41 saves, 4.25 ERA), who gave up 32 ER. Big difference, right?

Well, when we make this swap the Dribbles team ERA balloons to – wait for it! — 3.40. So the difference between Nathan (arguably the best reliever last year and a costly 5th round pick) and Wilson (lame-ass 17th round workaday schmo), is about .15 points of team ERA. Which in our league would have slipped the Dribbles from first in ERA down to, um, a tie for first. Total loss = 1/2 point — you know, like in that old karate video game.

Of course, in a tighter race, this could have meant losing a point or even two. But in that tight of a race, you’re probably not wishing you drafted Nathan instead of Wilson. You’re probably wishing you hadn’t RUN IAN SNELL OUT WEEK AFTER AGONIZING WEEK FOR, LIKE, TWO MONTHS.

But wait, you say! Wilson was actually pretty decent for a Junky Closer. Okay, then let’s swap in the most turdtastic closer in recent memory, Mr. Joe Borowski circa 2007, when he tallied 45 saves and a malodorous 5.07 ERA. If you traveled back in a time machine, drafted Blowrowski, transported him to 2008, and replaced Nathan with him – well, then your 3.25 team ERA wouldn’t swell to 3.40. It would swell to 3.43.

Keep in mind that top closers actually accumulate very few IP, usually around 70 (or about 5% of your season total). So even a bloated, ugly, horror-movie-quality ERA (like 5.07) means relatively few runs added to your total ER, and thus a small total effect on your team ERA. The gap between Nathan (10 ER) and Blowrowski (37 runs) is just a net gain of 27 ER, or roughly one bad outing by Aaron Harang in Coors.

Now onto WHIP. Our league’s WHIP leader last year (same team, surprise, surprise) was at 1.20. Swapping out Nathan for Wilson raises that to 1.22. Swapping in Borowski ’07 raises it to 1.23.

Not exactly the final minutes of the Hindenburg.

The Nozzles did pretty badly in strikeouts, finishing 9th with 1075. If they’d had Papelbon (77 Ks), not Borowski ’07 (58), the 19 extra Ks would have moved them up one place in the standings. But, really, is 19 Ks – i.e. one-and-a-half Lincecum starts — really going to make your break your season? What are you, made of baby-juice?

Obviously, you have to adjust this for your particular league, rules, roster-sizes, etc. But the basic point is: Grabbing Paps or Nathan early might gain you a point or two overall, assuming he doesn’t pull a Putz and blow out his elbow. But ask yourself this: How many extra points would you have gained by using that 5th round pick on a stud OF instead of Papelnuts?

The only category where closers add real value is – wait for it — saves. And Joe Borowski’s 45 saves are exactly as valuable as Jon Papelbon’s 45 saves. And a whole heck of a lot cheaper.

Now ask yourself this: If you have a time machine, why are you using it to go back in time and draft Joe Borowski and not to kill baby Hitler?

Seriously, you should have killed baby Hitler.

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Before we get to that, I want to clear up a potential misconception.  Donkey-corns are not the only closers I’ll draft for my 2009 fantasy team.  I’ll more than happily draft closers from the Brain Freeze category.  Cause, see, I’m a save vulture.  It is what it is.  I’ll take saves from anywhere, except probably from the $12 Salad category.  I think those guys are great.  I just don’t believe in paying for saves.  I said “probably” because at the right draft spot, everyone’s worth looking at it.  Some of these closing jobs aren’t finalized just yet.  That wouldn’t stop me from grabbing both guys if I had room and the price were right.  Just because everyone thinks Brandon Lyon should be the closer doesn’t mean Fernando Rodney has no place on a team until Leyland makes a formal announcement.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?  Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal.  No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate.  These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles.  Why are you following a donkey?  Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him.  Does the donkey talk?  Yes.  Yes, he does talk.  So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn.  The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves.  These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)
7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arrendondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
19. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw.  Brain freeze!  Make it stop!  Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
22. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
26. Huston Street/Manny Corpas, COL (Taylor Buchholz… As soon as the Rockies pick a closer, I’d move the guy up a bit.)
27. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
28. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
29. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Brandon Morrow, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Phew.  The 2009 fantasy baseball rankings come to a semi-close with the top 20 closers for 2009.  (I say semi-close, cause I will tweak them from time to time and I’m going to have a top 100 and 300 overall soon too.)  The top 20 closers are a bit different than all of the other lists.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  The 2009 projections are a bit wonky too since you can’t predict how many saves a closer is going to get.  I mean, you just can’t.  To the point where some well-respected projections…ers don’t even attempt to.  Saves come down to opportunity.  Also, I’ll have a separate post shortly for every team’s closer.  For a broad idea of where players are in relation to each other, see the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Jonathan Papelbon – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here to K-Rod.  I call this tier, “These guys are terrific, but I’m not going to own any of them.”  Familiarize yourself with commandment number one — SAGNOF.  In this case it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  This means that if someone is getting saves then they are worth owning.  It’s like you’re going hogging — all the time.  You’re never going for pretty, high-priced closers.  They’ll get you in trouble.  2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves

2. Joe Nathan – There’s no reason to get a high-priced closer.  Think about it. You just want saves from them. So you care if you get 40 saves from Nathan or 40 saves from Nationals schmohawk closer to be named later?  2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves

3. Brad Lidge – I’ve seen Lidge underrated in some drafts so he might be one top closer I end up with.  Are people worried that Pujols is going to be facing him in every ninth inning of every game?  Lidge offers you close to 100 Ks, that’s worth the high pick alone.  2009 Projections:  5-4/2.50/1.20/100, 40 saves

4. Mariano Rivera – Doode’s going to be 39 for the 2009 season.  I’m not saying this is the year it all falls apart, but I don’t wanna be the last one to shut off the lights on the Mariano Rivera Is A Top Tiered Closer Party.  2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves

5. Francisco Rodriguez – It’s been written so many times before that he’s not going to save 60 games again that I’ll simply say yup. “Yup.”  2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves

6. Joakim Soria – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.”  In reality, there’s probably a few tiers in the closer ranks and when I’m going over $12 Salads, Donkey-corns and Brain Freezes, I’ll go into more detail.  As for Soria, I’m worried that he’s slowly becoming overrated as we head towards 2009 drafts.  He’s going to be good, but remember SAGNOF.  2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves

7. Jonathan Broxton – Unfortunately, the Dodgers already committed to Broxton for 2009 over Saito.  I say unfortunately because I knew Broxton would be the closer, but with Saito in the picture there was more of a chance to steal Broxton in a draft.  Oh, well.  Gotta pay to play.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves

8. Francisco Cordero – Alex, Closers for $200.  The question is, “35 saves looks like what?”  Francisco Cordero.  2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves

9. Bobby Jenks – If someone finds Jenks’s strikeouts, do return them.  2009 Projections:  3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves

10. B.J. Ryan – Was a surprise to me that Ryan was able to have such a productive 2008, but that’s all in the past and now I’m recommending him.  If he has a personal vendetta against me, then he’ll have a subpar year.  We shall see.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves

11. Brian Fuentes – I ran over what I thought Fuentes could do in 2009 and I kept coming up with stats that are near those of Wood, Valverde and others that are below him.  That’s how he ended up here, if you were wondering.  2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves

12. Kerry Wood – Yes, the thought of handcuffing yourself to Betancourt or Jensen Lewis is frightening, but Wood showed he can excel as a closer as long as he stays healthy.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves

13. Jose Valverde – I can’t shake the feeling that he’s going to explode at some point, but he’s shown enough the last two years to think I’m just being paranoid.  Did you just say something about me?  2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves

14.  Chad Qualls – This might be my number one closer on every team and I’ll be more than happy with that.  I love guys who have been around the block and are getting their first shot at closing.  They’re almost always underrated.  Throw the Win-Loss projection out the window and look at the ERA, WHIP, Ks and Saves for Qualls.  Those aren’t farfetched numbers.  2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves

15. Carlos Marmol – He’s only this low because no one in the Cubs organization has said Marmol is the Cubs 2009 closer.  When someone says that, he moves up.  Not until then.  2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves

16. Heath Bell – Heath falls into the same category as Chad Qualls.  Guys that you think aren’t worth anything because they’ve never been the closer before.  Just grab Bell late and collect his 30 saves.  2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves

17. Joey Devine – Devine falls into the same category as Marmol.  He’ll shoot up these rankings if he’s officially appointed the A’s 2009 closer.  And Brad Ziegler will magically replace him if he’s named the closer.  2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves

18. Brian Wilson – Really the only thing that has him on the list and not lumped with Lindstrom, Corpas, etc in Huston Street’s blurb is the season Wilson just had in 2008.  And saves are not really a stat that translate well from year to year… Well, what I’m saying is I think I overrated Wilson.  Closers lose their jobs all the time and I think Wilson loses his in 2009, but that’s more of a hunch than anything.  2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves

19. Matt Capps – If Rinku and Dinesh can get the ball to Capps, all will be right in Steel City.  Gabaz!  2009 Projections:  1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves

20. Mike Gonzalez – He could be one of those late round fliers that ends up giving you 35 saves.  Or, um, 25 saves.  Recognize!  2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves

After the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of guys, but these two stand out:

Huston Street – Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated for this entire post, SAGNOF — If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.  That goes for Lindstrom, Corpas, Ray, Hoffman, Chris Perez, Lyon, Percival, Jim Belushi in a gorilla costume, etc.  2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves

Joel Hanrahananananan – What if I said during last year’s preseason Brian Wilson could save 41 games, would you have believed me?  Remember that when looking at Hanarahananananan at the end of your draft.  2009 Projections:  Saves, who cares what else?