Comments on: Stuck In The Middle With You

By: PrinceRudyNasim

PrinceRudyNasim — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 20:25:21 +0000

Uggla was saying how this is the 1st time in his 12 yr career that he is seeing everything so well so early. On top of that dude put on 20lbs of mucsle and is saying how he was going to drop 10 of it my end of spring. This guy could end up batting .280 or on the DL. Exciting shit to hear thoug

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 14:43:05 +0000

@Wake Up, Namaste

By: Wake Up

Wake Up — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 14:40:56 +0000

Balance…that’s my mantra

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 20:34:50 +0000

@Pops, I’ll take 20/40 any day and every day; I don’t weigh average much into my evaluation of players. Even ignoring the possible positives, you have a good player. Enjoy!

By: Pops

Pops — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 19:54:55 +0000

Ended up with Boss Man Junior Upton in a twelve team head to head points league. The positives: he’s playing in a contract year and is turning the magical age of 27. The negatives: his propensity to be a batting average drain and failure to live up to all of that potential. Thoughts on Upton this year?

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:35:14 +0000

@Joel, With that pitching staff, I don’t think you can afford the risk of it as nice as it would be. With it being a 10 team, you’ll want to watch the waivers for a Markakis replacement (His numbers are in decline and he’s starting the year hurt.) and for that out of nowhere pitcher to start the year. Keep those upside pitchers flagged to watch how March goes and be ready to pounce. You’ll definitely be able to trade from strength with saves but you’ll wanna do it for starting arms; your team doesn’t need another bat at this point.

Oh and don’t get me wrong, you got yourself a solid team. Just a few tweaks over time is all you’ll need.

By: Joel

Joel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:27:15 +0000

@Oregon Nut Cups, Ah, apologies.

10-team roto, yahoo-style

C Mauer
1B Gonzalez
2B Phillips
3B Beltre
SS Cozart
OF Ellsbury
OF Bruce
OF B.J. Upton
UTIL Butler
UTIL Markakis

SP Greinke
SP Strasburg
RP Marmol
RP League
P Johnson
P Beachy
P Nathan
P Sale

Bench – Jim Johnson, Tim Hudson, Mike Adams, Matt Thornton, Ryan Howard (pending DL)

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:24:51 +0000

@Joel, How do I fail at submitting in the right place? Oy…

H2H or roto? 12 team? 5×5? What does your roster look like?

In a vacuum: Love Cano but if Strasburg, Johnson & Beachy are your 2~4, I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on that trade.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:23:54 +0000

H2H or roto? 12 team? 5×5? What does your roster look like?

In a vacuum: Love Cano but if Strasburg, Johnson & Beachy are your 2~4, I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on that trade.

By: Joel

Joel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:18:50 +0000

Just had my draft, love my team. Got balance at all positions, although my pitching staff is littered with high risk guys that I drafted in the 7th round or later (Strasburg, Johnson, Beachy, Sale)… Anchoring this staff is Zach Greinke, my binky.

I just got offered Robinson Cano for Greinke, League and Mike Adams.

I have Brandon Phillips.

You do that trade and don’t look back, right?

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:15:44 +0000

@Peter, Whether he hits above or below .250 this year, I feel you’re going to get good value for that 5th round pick.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:14:21 +0000

@3FingersBrown, 100% agree on all things said (and I drafted Colby last year along with you so don’t feel too bad). It’s why I ignore BA when I go to draft. Too much variance to hang your hat on; let someone else draft Melky Cabrera because he hit .300 last year.

It’s true about the young guys. I was speaking more from track record and how no matter what it is, people flip flop from year to year on the same guy despite having a good history to work from.

Oh and I will try and have Colby on my team this year; where he’s going, he’ll be either a throwaway or gold. Feel like 20/10 and .240 is the floor with room for upside. I’m writing 2011 off as a lost year.

By: 3FingersBrown

3FingersBrown — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:53:32 +0000

Oregon Nut Cups, nice article although Alex Gordon and youngish players of his ilk are a little harder to figure – especially when they’ve got that #1 pick pedigree. Point that you made well is that it takes time to figure out who a player really is. Case in point Colby Rasmus last year – who I drafted embarrassingly early.

Another thing to consider – BA is the most varied of stats I believe (I read it in THT or Fangraphs so there!). So many factors to consider – aside from the hitter’s prowess. What did we learn from Bull Durham? “Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is?”

Don’t buy too much into average. Instead it’s more important to look at contact %, BB%, K%, LD % and so forth. Those numbers seem to be relatively steady compared to year to year flucuations in BA.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:50:40 +0000

@Sideshow, I prefer Fielder

By: Sideshow

Sideshow — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:49:24 +0000

16 team league & I am #14. Know who is available & narrowed my decsion down to Fielder or H. Rameriz. Who would u take? I think Rameriz is back but that is just a risky guess.

By: Peter

Peter — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:46:00 +0000

I’m an owner that snatched him in the 5th round. I’m a believer in trends. If you look at his average throughout his major league career, you’ll notice that its a roller coaster ride.

2006 – 282 avg (above 250)
2007 – 245 avg (below 250)
2008 – 260 avg (above 250)
2009 – 243 avg (below 250)
2010 – 287 avg (above 250)
2011 – 233 avg (below 250)
2012 – ???

Based on this breakdown, I believe Uggla will hit north of 250. When taking into consideration that this guy has consistent raw power, bats in the heart of the lineup, drives in runs, and walks a lot – well then you have an elite second baseman.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:32:24 +0000

@Mark Reynolds, Exactly. If you call someone a .260 hitter, you’re saying they could hit .280 or they could hit .240. It’s why I don’t get all crazy about a guy like Alex Gordon for this year. Good player, but could give you 18/12 and .280. Nice line but with where he’s being drafted, that is going to hurt.

PS, any chance you could hit .240 for me this year, Mark? Would be nice.

By: Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:22:04 +0000

I totally agree, and average is the best example of this. People let average effect their views on players way too much and the reality is that the difference between a .268 hitter and a .282 hitter over 6500 at bats for 13 or 14 hitters in a starting lineup is nothing, and that’s to say nothing of the unpredictability of the category.

By: Oregon Nut Cups

Oregon Nut Cups — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:21:05 +0000

@Elijah, ha, agreed!

By: Elijah

Elijah — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:17:51 +0000

Don’t let em off the hook!