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I wanted to talk about what Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton can provide for you in fantasy baseball this year.  Then I realized I had already and again and again.  Strasburg can throw a perfect game today and nothing will change in my mind.  Stanton could hit 7 bombs by the fifth inning and… Well, I actually like rookie hitters better than rookie pitchers, so I might continue to like Stanton and not tell you to sell him.  Though it doesn’t seem likely.  Instead of going over again what I’d expect from those two, I wanted to talk about rookies in general and what we’ve gotten so far from them in fantasy baseball.  As I’ve said before, rookies and Craigslist ads that read, “5′ 7″, 120 lbs., fitness model who loves cooking and cleaning and sex” are often very similar.  Expectations and reality don’t always run hand in hand.  Don’t always believe the picture.

This year we have Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore, Starlin Castro, Justin Smoak, Reid Brignac, Lou Marson, Wade Davis, Brennan Boesch, Mitch Talbot, Jaime Garcia, Buster Posey, Ike Davis, Alcides Escobar, Tyler Colvin, Gaby Sanchez, Jon Niese, Brian Matusz, David Freese, Mike Leake, Jason Heyward, Ian Desmond, Chris Tillman and Neftali Feliz, to name a few.  Heyward and Garcia are the standouts in this crowd.  Heyward is currently sandwiched between Podsednik and Pagan on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Both of those vets are having good years, but I think you could’ve had Pods and Pagan together in a trade for Heyward.  For this year, hype over value.  Garcia and Leake are both due for a regression.  I’d say Neftali Feliz could be the most productive of the rookies if it weren’t for Frank Francisco’s shadow looming over him (though because it’s Frank Francisco’s shadow it may be why Feliz is safer than most).  In the end, Feliz is SAGNOF anyway.  Austin Jackson has an empty average and that’s due for a regression.  The rest of the list includes guys you’ve either picked up and dropped or are considering dropping.

Justin Smoak is a great example of rookie hype and what happens after it wanes.  When he was called up, everyone added him.  After I grabbed Smoak, ‘perts in my ‘pert leagues wrote things on the message board like “Great Grab, Grey!” and “Smoak Pickup Almost As Impressive As Your Mustache!”  Smoak’s hitting .211 with 6 homers.  Sweet!  I don’t know what I would’ve done without that.  He’s actually been on my bench for the better part of the last 3 weeks.  If he wasn’t a rookie, I probably would’ve just dropped him.  Rookie nookie, you’re in my brain too.

Upside.  That’s what it’s all about, right?  It’s what makes “Beautiful Girls” such a great movie.  It understands how enticing upside is.  No one wants to commit to boring productivity like a wife or Angel Pagan when you can have a sexy as f**k Stephen Strasburg.  As Michael Rapaport says, “Supermodels are beautiful girls, Will.  A beautiful girl can make you dizzy, like you’ve been drinking Jack and Coke all morning.  She can make you feel high full of the single greatest commodity known to man – promise.  Promise of a better day.  Promise of a greater hope.  Promise of a new tomorrow.  This particular aura can be found in the gait of a beautiful girl.  In her smile, in her soul, the way she makes every rotten little thing about life seem like it’s going to be okay.  The supermodels, Willy?  That’s all they are.  Bottled promise.  Scenes from a brand new day.  Hope dancing in stiletto heels.”  Stanton is dancing in stiletto heels right now.  Remember, the moral of the story was the supermodel was wrong.  Boring productivity gets the job done.

  1. Clyde Prompto says:
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    So you’re saying I’ve wasted the last 3 years plowing though supermodels? I wish you’d given me this fatherly advice sooner. In all seriousness, great post and it sums up the rookie-hype phenomenon as well as anything I’ve ever read.

  2. El Famous Burrito says:
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    It’s all a gamble anyways.

    I picked up Smoak, and for his first few days, he was everything I dreamed. Then I saw him without makeup, and now I let his calls go to voicemail.

  3. XnadyMen says:
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    So I should offer coke to all my rookies to get them on my team, instead of waiver wire spots?

    Well it works with the models during fashion week….

  4. royce! says:
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    I don’t know if it’s some coding thing or whatever (not too informed when it comes to computers), but the ad to the right of this box as I type this is telling me I should play the board game Risk at their site.

  5. royce! says:
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    (Oops, accidentally hit send)

    Just thought the Risk thing was appropriate for the theme of the post.

  6. Howard says:
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    “Stanton is dancing in stiletto heels right now” Is that a phenom initiation? I hope he’ll be dancing around the bases tonight! I picked him up in a couple of leagues because, yes, I want to drink from that bottle too! Bring-it-on-Stan-ton!

  7. uncdrew says:
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    Strasburg will take my 11th place team to 1st within 6 weeks.

    Of course that’s contingent on the 10 teams above me having at least 80% of their players hit the DL.

    It could happen…

  8. TonyCino says:
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    12 team 10×10 daily roto league:

    My SPs: Halladay, Liriano, Garza, Nolasco, CLewis

    The guy with Hamels wants to trade him and is willing to “trade one problem for another” as he put it. He’s not interested in CLewis, but maybe Nolasco, Garza, or Liriano. Should I make the deal for any of those three? Is the order I have them correct lowest to highest value?

    Thanks

  9. royce! says:
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    @TonyCino: I’d send Nolasco for Hamels in a heartbeat.

  10. TonyCino says:
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    Yeah me too, but it’s a more difficult decision if it’s Garza or Liriano

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @anon: Fangraphs… It’s in the blogroll to your right.

  12. Eddy says:
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    @Grey: @Razzball Nation
    I posted up a bulletin in my league asking the managers what they thought what Strasburg and Stanton’s lines were gonna be for today. I boldly predicted:

    Strasburg: 6 IP 5 H 2 ER 7Ks

    Stanton: 1-4, Double, 1 Run, 2 Ks

    What are your predictions?

  13. Tommy says:
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    what is strasburg trade value?

  14. Tommy says:
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    wells for strasburg?

  15. royce! says:
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    @Grey: No, actually once I accidentally submitted my first comment, the ad changed to something for fanfinder. I just found it interesting because despite not using the word “risk” in your post, it was about how risky rookies are, and either it was a coincidence, or whatever determines which ads will appear picked up on something in the post being about risk. Probably was just a coincidence.

    Anyhow, back to the real world of fantasy- in a 14 team h2h, should I drop Wandy for Jason Hammel? Hammel would likely ride the pine for my team until the last week of June, in which he projects to start twice, once being at Petco, the other against SF. I can’t remember if you have written about Hammel lately, but he’s got a FIP of 3.72 and an xFIP of 3.73, so his poor numbers seem to be caused by a low strand rate and a high BABIP. I think I may have just written out exactly why I should make the move, but I find that your gut is more accurate than mine, and want to compare guts. My gut says Wandy is a jerk, and I want nothing to do with him.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Ooh, fun!

    7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.

    @Tommy: I’d want more. Should be able to get a #2 outfielder or #2 starter.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: I’d start Hammel in away games only. Don’t fully trust him. But those are a good two starts.

  18. royce! says:
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    @Grey: You trust him more than Wandy, generally? Or are you anticipating that the Wandwagon will somehow right itself?

  19. Bodymore says:
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    Tejada has been mightily struggling and is being shifted to DH more often with Moore gaining more at bats, with the possibility Josh Bell comes up and takes away even more at bats.

    Replacement options seem to be Yunel Escobar, who is hitting pretty well right now. Another intriguing option is Sean Rod who may be heating up since he’s been getting more ABs w/ Bartlett out.

    Would you stand pat with Tejada or opt for a replacement? I could either drop Tejada or lose Ohman for an extra MI.

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: I’m worried Wandy is hiding an injury. So I don’t trust Wandy either. More? Eh… Wouldn’t say that.

  21. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @El Famous Burrito: you must not be paying attention to him recently. the luck is turning around on BABIP and the avg is climbing. if he’s on waivers and you have some ty wigginton schmohawk on your bench, now is the time to make the move.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bodymore: I’d go with Yunel over Tejada.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Oh, and… 0-for-4, 2 Ks.

  24. royce! says:
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    Is Contreras expendable now in 12 team leagues?

  25. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @TonyCino: don’t think i’d trade liriano or garza for hamels, but i’d move lewis or nolasco and not think twice about it. i’d even see if i had some roster depth at a sport he’s week and toss that guy in with nolasco or lewis if that would get the deal done.

  26. Bodymore says:
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    @grey Yeah That is the move I was ready to make but wanted to check your opinion before pulling the trigger. I’ll keep an eye on Alcides and Sean Rod to see if they truly break out but Yunel has a decent track record if he stays healthy.

    Meanwhile, I got the Smoak owner to take Adam Jones off my hand in return for Justin. I’m losing O’s left and right. Probly for the best.

  27. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Bodymore: i waived pacman a motnh ago. i couldn’t find anyone to take him and it was either start him or pick up more productive bats to start thanks to a rash of injuries.

  28. Bodymore says:
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    I own stanton and am starting him but fully expect the 0/4 with 2 Ks as well. Hopefully the power turns on soon though…

  29. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    You really think Kyle Kendrick is gonna stop the Inspectah in his high heels?

    Girl please, you crazy.

  30. royce! says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Your comment finally pushed me over the edge with Adam Jones- I just dropped him in a 10 team roto. And I feel so free! Grabbed Colby Lewis for a spot start against the M’s, who he pitched a 10 K shutout against last time around.

  31. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: I know u said Delmon Young is bleh, but PacMan is testing my patience now that ive had him for a few weeks. Would u rather hv PacMan, Delmon, Michael Saunders, Andres Torres, Boesch, Carlos Guillen?

  32. XnadyMen says:
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    What do people see as The SS Jesus line tonight? Think he holds on for the win?

    And a fantasy question, am i stuck holding onto Hoffman until he retires or they give him back the job so he can loss it again?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tHe ShiT: They all have their blehs. If you need Runs and speed, Torres. Boesch for power… Pacman has the best upside though.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @XnadyMen: I just said in the comments above for SS. Yeah, stuck holding him for now.

  35. AJ says:
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    Should i be starting posey or napoli? I need hrs and rbis. Should i use either at Util. Also would you start adam jones or stanton

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AJ: Napoli, Stanton, don’t own two catchers.

  37. Thunder Dan says:
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    Fantastic post. Oh my, Natalie Portman in that movie… let’s just say Chris Hansen would have been sitting me down for a talk.

  38. alex says:
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    what do you think about Posey since being called up? I know he not going to hit like .500 all year but could he be a .330 type hitter? any power potential?

  39. AJ says:
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    should i drop starlin for Alcides Escobar, Maicer Izturis,Jeff Keppinger, Reid Brignac, or Felipe Lopez

  40. alex says:
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    also is it ok to just drop Kendry? i keep hoping ill hear some breaking news that he’ll be back but in a 20 team league his spot could be valuable

  41. XnadyMen says:
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    Thanks Mustachioed one…I am taking the under on The SS Jesus:

    5 IP 3 ER 8 Base runners 4 K’s

  42. AJ says:
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    Thanks Grey. Ive been following you for a few weeks now and ive moved up from 10th to 2nd.

  43. Ryan says:
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    Which side: Gardner, Morneau, Ubaldo or Lincecum, Howard, Delmon Young?

  44. ron mexico's papi says:
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    Damn you Grey for introducing logic into my man love for Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton! Damn you!

  45. ron mexico's papi says:
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    I hereby declare Giancarlo Cruz-Michael Stanton’s given name to now be Marlin Big Fly Jesus.

  46. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: Who would you rather have for the remainder of the year: Sandoval or Haren?

  47. Stephen says:
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    Excellent article. I’ve been feeling like this nearly every time I write my prospects article. Usually my thinking goes, “Who is going to be effective?” And I usually respond with, “Fewer than I hope.”

  48. Wilsonian says:
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    Random scenario: 8 Team H2H Keeper, I’m facing Strasburg and have Stanton. My opponent’s obviously starting SS. For me to start Stanton, he would have to start over the following guys: Kemp, Cargo, B-Up, Rasmus. I kinda want to start him just for the Stanton/Strasburg H2H matchup, but I’m thinking I’m only gonna be hurting myself. Would you start him over any of those foos?

  49. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Wilsonian: It’s doubtful that Rasmus plays tonight. I am expecting Winn to get the start again and allow the calf to rest.

    @AJ: Bengie Molina is starting tonight for the Giants.

    Grey…..It’s been a while since I commented, so I just wanted to say what’s up. Let’s pray for a few bombs by Stanton tonight and than the ole “Sure I’ll give you Stanton and a Brain Freeze for Tex, Utley, (insert struggling stud that will soon rebound).

  50. NoEmoJoe says:
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    Kung Fu Panda or Corey Hart?

  51. TJ says:
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    Who do you like better for the rest of this year and going forward in a keeper league- Wade Davis or Clayton Richard?

  52. Black Beard says:
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    Rest of the year in a 6×5 +OPS…Posey or Napoli?

  53. NoEmoJoe says:
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    @Black Beard: Napoli. Much more pop!

  54. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Black Beard: I agree on Napoli, only concern is that Mathis should be activated soon.

  55. Bodymore says:
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    I would argue that Delmon Young has as much upside as Pacman, but I’m the guy without a blog. Pacman flashed skills for half a season at most, and has had a string of injuries you don’t like to see out of a young guy (hamstring/hip/lower back problems). It seems more and more likely that he isn’t 100% healthy, that the broken foot never healed right, or that his all star campaign was a fluke.

    Young on the other hand was once a Michael Stanton*2 — people we’re calling him a future hall of famer when he was in AA. Since the behaviour problems and being traded, he’s never made good on the talent that got the hype machine going. I think he could still be a post hype solid major leaguer breakout, where Jones is looking more like a guy with poor plate discipline that will always be vulnerable to the low and away junk ball.

  56. Mr. Rickey says:
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    NL only keeper league. Would you trade either Gaby Sanchez or Neil Walker for Casey Blake?

  57. NoEmoJoe says:
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    @Nate Marcum: True, but he;s playing 1b now too. Not even Sciosca can deny what he’s been doing.

  58. uncdrew says:
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    5 IP 3 ER 8 Base runners 4 K’s ??

    I think it’s more like 7 IP, -1 ER, 47Ks, 1 baserunner.

  59. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Ha! Great quote. Can’t sum up top prospects any better.

  60. uncdrew says:
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    ..and the baserunner gets on for catcher’s interference. :p

  61. Wilsonian says:
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    @Nate Marcum: I was kind of afraid of that, especially with the Cards being on the left coast – which is why I have the others in and Rasmus on the pine right now. I hadn’t heard anything yet, so I wasn’t sure what was going on with the calf.

  62. Mr2Bits says:
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    Here’s to hoping that sexy as hell Strasburg lures you into bed then busts out the packaage he had stuffed between his legs all night and you realize that the adam’s apple you stared at all night wasn’t an exception to the rule.

    In other words I’m hoping Pitt beats up on him so I can watch ESPN replay Brett Favre and Tim Tebow updates

  63. sean says:
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    @Eddy:

    Strasburg: 5.1 IP, 3ER, 3BB, 5H, 4K
    Stanton: 0-3, BB, R, 2K

  64. Art Vandelay says:
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    13 team mixes league — thinking of offering A. Soriano/Leake for Gardner/Kennedy. Is that too much? I’m nervous that neither Soriano nor Leake will continue to produce this season, and I need steals (other guy needs power). I also have Stanton waiting on my bench to fill the power void left by Soriano. However, I’m afraid I can get more for Soriano/Leake. Thoughts?

  65. Sal says:
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    @Grey: please do the magic rookie hitter dance so stanton will have a hell of a week and I can sell high in a package deal

  66. Wilsonian says:
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    Man, I hate doing this too…but, who starts (gotta bench one):

    Headley v. Pelfrey @ Metco
    Lind v. Niemann @ The Trop
    Smoak v. F-Her @ Arlington
    Boesch v. Floyd @ Comerica

    Thanks mucho…

  67. The Den says:
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    Man Adam Lind has been frustrating to own. Grey, who sits: Lind, Granderson, Pence, Stanton.

  68. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    Simon or Axford for cheap saves?

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Thunder Dan: Thanks!

    @alex: .300/10 HRs. Search the site for Posey and you’ll find my elaborations.

    @AJ: Brignac…

    @alex: I’d hold him for right now in a 20 team league.

    @AJ: Nice!

    @Ryan: Howard side, but close.

    @ron mexico’s papi: Ha!

    @Seequinn: Haren…

    @Stephen: Thanks!

    @Nate Marcum: Hey, man! Yeah, I’m hoping for two bombs tonight.

    @NoEmoJoe: Panda…

    @TJ: Richard…

    @Bodymore: Yeah, be nice to see him do it once whereas Pacman has.

    @Mr. Rickey: Walker…

    @uncdrew: Ha!

    @Donnie Baseball: Thanks!

    @Mr2Bits: Ha

    @Art Vandelay: I think you can get more.

    @Sal: I’m doing it, sir.

    @Wilsonian: Bench Headley.

    @The Den: No idea of matchups, but Lind.

    @Howie Met Your Mother: Axford for right now, that changes in a few days.

  70. artie says:
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    @The Den:
    That’s an understatement. I offered my Lind for his Gardner and was turned down. He’s killing me.

  71. Kid 'n Play says:
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    Do you drop Dallas Braden for any of these two? Myers and/or Hammel? K/9 and K/BB are extra cats in my league.

  72. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    @Grey:

    So you’re saying once Simon is off the DL, you’d rather have him than the ‘Stache Man?

    Oh, and one more if you don’t mind: Gio Gonzales or John Eli in a 12 team 5×5? I’m 1st in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 5th in Ks.

    (Dealt Hudson for Braun, about to cut bait on Wandy, and have Strasburg from now on…)

  73. royce! says:
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    Hey Grey, you mind taking at look at my Q posed in the forums under “14 team weekly h2h w/ add’l stats”? My team is really pissing me off lately, and I could use some advice before I go do something drastic.

  74. Tom Emanski says:
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    Well I officially effed myself with that Roberts trade. Urgh.

  75. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Emanski: Yeah, wasn’t great. You still have your health, right?

  76. alvaro says:
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    I have been offered My Lincecum and Strasburg for Votto, Prado and Hanson. This will leave me with (start 5, weekly league) Javy VACEquez, Ervin “Cy” Santana, Mike Leake (who is the ione I really wanted to move), Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Tommy Hanson, Masterson and Wandy.

    Can I get more for Lincy /Strasburg or should I pull the trigger

    Thanks

  77. Tom Emanski says:
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    @Grey: I may have herniated my soul permanently

  78. Ryan says:
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    Best pitcher the rest of the way: Lincecum, Josh Johnson, or Greinke?

  79. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Thanks, Grey. I think that considering how pessimistic owners in my league seem to be about Andrus, I should send Hanley packing. Now if I could only get owners to respond to my trade offers…

  80. ASAOK says:
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    Is Ian Stewart injured? I understand sitting against Wandy, but supposedly he’s not in the lineup vs. Moehler tonight.

  81. royce! says:
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    @Grey: How about Hanley and Stewart for Youk and Verlander? Selling too low on Hanley?

  82. royce! says:
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    @ASAOK: That would be a dumb move on Tracy’s part- Stewart’s 2/4 w/ a HR against Moehler.

  83. brett says:
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    Grey, or anyone:
    Do you see Carlos Santana being better or worse than Olivo going forward (assuming he gets the call any day now)?

  84. phil says:
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    did the cliff lee/panda for ethier/bwilson, then sat lee b/c his career texas numbers were awful…shouldn’t have played a matchup with how good Lee has been this year. But still am happy with the deal, thanks grey.

    Also will have to see beautiful girls, 2nd time i’ve heard it rec’d so put it in my queue.

  85. barker says:
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    12 team league

    i give ethier freese aybar J garcia

    i get h ramirez aramis ramirez f rodney

    current MI is aybar and freddy sanchez
    OF abreu braun kubel damon huff ethier
    P — wain johan kershaw kennedy pelfry latos marcum
    3b ian stewart freese

  86. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ASAOK: He was dealing with a hand injury, not sure if it’s bothering him.

    @royce!: No, that’s fine.

    @brett: He’s not getting the call for another month the Indians said. Worse…

    @phil: Cool…

    @barker: Good for you.

  87. Aj says:
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    Did i give it up on this trade? I dont have a decent player at 2nd/ss, i have napoli catching, im sick of jones and was thinking of waiving Niemann if i couldnt trade him
    Receive Ben Zobrist,
    Receive Alex Gordon,
    Send Buster Posey,
    Send Adam Jones
    Send Jeff Niemann,

  88. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ASAOK: Out with a sore leg.

  89. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Start Cain today? The Reds are a bit scary all of a sudden…

    On a completely unrelated matter, in the offseason, you may recall, we had a fairly lengthy exchange on currency fluctuations in general and why the NZ dollar was strong against the US dollar, blah blah blah.

    Slightly different subject and not sure if this is your thing but it’s a great read (and it’s by Michael Lewis):

    http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/04/wall-street-excerpt-201004

  90. AJ says:
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    Did i give it up on this trade? I dont have a decent player at 2nd/ss, i have napoli catching, im sick of jones and was thinking of waiving Niemann if i couldn’t trade him. Id waive gordon
    Receive Ben Zobrist,
    Receive Alex Gordon,
    Send Buster Posey,
    Send Adam Jones
    Send Jeff Niemann,

  91. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Aj: Looks okay for you.

    @Steve: I’d start Cain every time out for now.I read it already (the book, not that article). It was good. Lot more than I ever needed to know about tranches.

  92. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Cool, thanks.

    I’m actually a total non-economics, non-finance guy, but that book really appeals, so I think I will go get it – I trust your judgement (emoticon)

  93. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, I don’t know jack about economics, which made the book a bit dense at times, but was still enjoyable enough. Was nowhere near as interesting as his other books. I even liked Liar’s Poker better and that was also set in Wall St.

  94. Suck My Wieters says:
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    Grey,

    Im in a keeper league and I ended up keeping Adam Jones. Should I drop Adam Jones or sit tight? Coghlan is still available, for now….

  95. Dracula says:
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    Conor Jackson, Lastings Milledge, or Michael Saunders? reg categories+OBP…

  96. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Suck My Wieters: Depends how many people you keep, are you benching Jones, do you need average and Runs… Bit of a toss up.

  97. Just Thick says:
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    Have 2 catchers on a few teams….drop Wieters or Posey?

  98. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Just Thick: Trade Wieters or Posey. Even if it’s for nothing but a closer.

  99. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: I just pulled the trigger on the Haren/Sandoval trade, getting Big Dan. I respect your opinion enough to have let it break my internal tie. Perhaps I should have asked this earlier but do you believe Prado can keep up what he’s doing? I don’t see any reason he won’t. He can hit and sits atop that (heating) Braves lineup. Anyway, he made losing Panda easier. I feel like I gave up 12 jacks and 20 RBIs to get Haren?

  100. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Seequinn: Yeah, he should maintain around where he’s at.

  101. Grey

    Grey says:
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    No hitter!

  102. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, jinx it! My h2h opponent’s got Strasburg, so light him up, Bucs!

    McCutchen’s line out was a bullet, though.

  103. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Yeah, he didn’t overpowering until Milledge started flailing.

  104. Chicago Mike says:
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    @ Grey

    Pick a Side

    1. Ubaldo Jimenez

    2. Roy Halladay & Alfonso Soriano

  105. royce! says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yeah, his curve (not the K pitch, but I think the pitch before) made Milledge look silly. But I saw Kershaw and Gio cause the same silly twitch when they got called up, so I’m not convinced that Strasburg’s the second coming…yet.

  106. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @royce!: Yeah, he looks dominating, but also hittable.

  107. Dingo says:
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    Garrett Jones and Carlos Quentin are starting to feel like deadweight tied around my neck. I’ve tried and failed to trade both.

    Are they droppable for the likes of Austin Kearns, Jason Hammel, Angel Pagan, Hiroki Kuroda, and Kevin Slowey?

  108. royce! says:
    (link)

    I’m watching the Padres game at the same time as the Nats, and Enberg just said something that reveals a lot about Padres fans’ perspective on offense: something along the lines of “Jeff Francouer is batting seventh, he’d be a cleanup hitter if he was on most other teams.” Yeah, maybe most losing teams.

  109. royce! says:
    (link)

    Stanton infield single. You were all horribly, horribly wrong.

  110. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dingo: Jones has homered three times in the last week.

    @royce!: Ha! Was it me or did Stanton look gigantic?

  111. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I wish I had the extra innings package so I could say, but alas I’ll have to take your word for it.

  112. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Ah… So you’re not watching Strasburg?

  113. Dingo says:
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    @Grey: True, but two of them were sonavabenches, since they came against Lincecum and Lilly, who’s at least a lefty. I guess he’s frustrating to own because lately he’s been impossible to play matchups with — hitting a HR off of Lincecum but going 0-4 with 2 Ks off of lesser pitchers. Sort of the Matsuzaka of hitters.

    Anyway, it sounds like you’re saying to be more patient with them.

  114. EJ says:
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    This trade just occurred in my league:

    BJ Upton and B. Wilson for Pierre, Peavy and Gregg.

    Fair?

  115. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @EJ: One side is obviously better, but it’s not terrible.

  116. royce! says:
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    @Grey: No, I am- fortunately it’s on the mlb network. And the Padres are on the local network.

  117. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Gotcha… Yeah, he’s looking dominating now.

  118. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Yep. He’s going to make a lot of fantasy teams a lot better if he can keep this up, assuming his owners sell high. It’s good to keep in mind that he’s facing PIT.

  119. thepizzaman says:
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    @royce! you should get mlb.tv on the computer. Greatest $120 you’ll spend all year

  120. Steve says:
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    Welcome to the big leagues, son.

  121. thepizzaman says:
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    Call me a miserable human being, but I am somewhat rooting against Strasburg. I’m a little tired of hearing everyone rave about him. Then again if I had him on my fantasy team I would probably have his name tattooed on my arm by now.

  122. Steve says:
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    Grandy is dandy.

  123. royce! says:
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    @thepizzaman: I had it for the last two years, but I would always have problems with inappropriate blackouts and poor video quality. Is it better this year?

  124. royce! says:
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    @thepizzaman: I feel the same way. That said, I’m on my way to get a tattoo of Delwyn Young pissing on a Nats logo…

    Great play my Milledge! Maybe I’ll add him to the tattoo…

  125. thepizzaman says:
    (link)

    I have never had a problem. I live in NJ so I am regularly blacked out of NYY and NYM, but thats not a problem cause its on regular tv. The only real issue is your internet connection. If the connection is not good it can be extremely frustrating.

    If you have a decent internet connection the HD is awesome.

  126. royce! says:
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    edit: “by” not “my”.

  127. thepizzaman says:
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    @royce!: I have never had a problem. I live in NJ so I am regularly blacked out of NYY and NYM, but thats not a problem cause its on regular tv. The only real issue is your internet connection. If the connection is not good it can be extremely frustrating.

    If you have a decent internet connection the HD is awesome.

  128. royce! says:
    (link)

    @thepizzaman: Huh. Well, I’ve always had a good connection, so maybe I’ll try it again. As I remember it, they reduce the price some time during the season. I figure I can wait until they do that again.

  129. tHe ShiT says:
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    Strasburg is striking guys out but he looks way 2 hittable. I would luv 2 c him against a much better offense…

  130. tHe ShiT says:
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    Is it me or is Costas almost as bad at calling a baseball game as Berman? Smoltz is a natural though…

  131. thepizzaman says:
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    @royce!: I’m not sure if mlb will do it again this year, but just a head up to you and everyone else:

    If you vote for the last all-star position (not sure exactly what its called but last year it was between guys like Pablo and Inge) you’ll get an email from MLB that gives you a free 2 weeks subscription to mlb.tv

    Pretty sweet deal.

  132. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tHe ShiT: I completely agree, but he gets the Indians next.

  133. charlie batch says:
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    which side of a bruce/lind for granderson trade do you like?

  134. royce! says:
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    @thepizzaman: I just paid for it now. It’s down to $99 for the premium one for the year. I think it’ll be worth it just to be able to watch as many Dodgers games as possible, with Scully retiring.

  135. royce! says:
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    Now to check out Stanton the Sasquatch….

  136. tHe ShiT says:
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    Nasty changeup 2 get the Dreaded Pirate. For the sake of the health of his arm, I would like to see him use it more and not rely on his curve as much.

  137. thepizzaman says:
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    @Grey: Grey, Are you an mlb.tv or extra innings package guy?

  138. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I just googled it and I couldn’t find anything that says that he’s definitely retiring after 2010, so I’m gonna just watch as much as I can now this year and hope for the best.

  139. Steve says:
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    First day with Greinke and Dunn on my team. Mixed results thus far…

  140. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @thepizzaman: i never root against someone who is supposed to be great unless they earn that kinda hate themselves.

    i guess i just like watching guys live up to the hype and not hating a guy through no doing of my own. i enjoy being able to say i saw _______ play.

  141. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: their own not my own

    also, the only 2 hard hit balls i have seen off strasburg was the HR (not really a hard hit bomb, barely cleared the wall) and the line out by dread pirate to open the game, so not sure where this “looks hittable” talk comes from. the other hits were weak bloop singles into right field.

    not saying the pirates are a juggernaut by any means, but not like they are hitting rockets right at guys all over the field.

    if anything, i’d say strasburg has way more movement than i expected.

  142. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    holy shit

    the 7th inning out of strasburg was some of the filthiest shit i’ve seen in a long long time

    i don’t care if it was the pirates

  143. Howard says:
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    @Grey In my 20 team H2H I want to pick up Alfredo Sauce. I can either drop Wakefield who I streamed in for the night or Iannetta who I have filling in for Olivo p/t. I know the rule: ABC (always be closing!) and NC2C (never carry 2 catchers!) Just wanted to get your opinion. Wakefield can either give up 9 or strike out 9 and when Red State Jeter comes back (darn mechanics!) Wake will be toast.

  144. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Agreed. I know with a typical hyped-up rookie you should temper your expectations, but this dude is anything but typical.

  145. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Kent Bottenfield: very few pitchers in the bigs have the movement he has on his fastball.

  146. barker says:
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    would u trade ubaldo?? 12 team rotisserie

    My P includes Lincecum wain ubaldo bills pelfry j sanchez DL beckett DL volquez
    relievers valverde rauch gregg rodney meek kuo axford

    obviously ive dominated Pitching my team is in first by 46 points overall

    my 1b are butler huff J lopez OF byrd kubel rios abreu matsui rasmus

    SS reyes zobrist 3b wright stewart 2b k johnson

    lots of positions with rigid slots LF/rf/cf CI mi Of 2 util

    it is my first taste of rotisserie and i am doing well should i start selling ubaldo for pujols types or should i go with a package more geared toward speed or stand pat

    i really dont think ubaldo is going to be this good all year is it time to cash in on the beautiful statline he has given me so far

  147. artie says:
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    Screw SS (i don’t own him). I benched Floyd and his 5K so far. Dammit

  148. royce! says:
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    Yeah this Strasburg shizz is insane. I’d be more excited about it if my h2h opponent didn’t have him.

  149. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @thepizzaman: Watching Direct TV Extra Innings package.

    @royce!: Yeah, I hadn’t heard that before you said it.

    @Howard: Lose Wakefield.

    @ThePoonTycoon: Definitely picked up the nasty as the game went on.

    @barker: Yeah, if you can get Pujols or Miggy or Prince or Tex.

  150. sal says:
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    All I can think about is how Capps is going to write his name in history by blowing Strasburgs night.

  151. barker says:
    (link)

    thank you grey this site inspired me to try roto and im sittin pretty thanks to you —- puttin out offers now

  152. royce! says:
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    @Grey: That’s good news. I think I just thought that he was retiring after the 2010 season because when he committed to broadcasting in 2010, he said something about that being it, but it might have just been the media blew the comment out of proportion. That lady from Alaska might have been right about those darn media wack-a-doos!

  153. cruisinkc says:
    (link)

    So in my keeper league I hold Strasburg and someone just offered me Sabathia, A. Dunn and E. Santana for Strasburg.

    Should I do the trade or hold him since it’s a keeper league?

  154. @thepizzaman: You’re a miserable human being. Kid is fantastic. It’s fun to see baseball players do amazing things, no?

    I’m pissed that I don’t have him in my keeper league, but he went too early for my taste.

  155. Steve says:
    (link)

    Hippo sees my Hamels and raises me a Greinke.

    Dude’s making ME depressed and I’ve only owned him a couple of days.

  156. thepizzaman says:
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    @3FingersBrown: I guess my bitterness has to do with my own sucking in baseball throughout my youth. Hell i just went 0-5 in arc pitch softball with a few errors in the field.

  157. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @cruisinkc: That’s a good return for Strasburg. You’re getting a #1 ace and a 40 homer guy, plus Ervin.

    @Steve: Ha… Yeah, I own him one league and of course I have a 1 in Wins. Oh, and I have Lincecum. Yeah, that team’s a mess.

  158. Bodymore says:
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    Starting to wonder if Greinke is injured….I know he wouldn’t be as good as last year, but this bad?

    Did not see 14Ks coming for Strasburg…wow

  159. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bodymore: Don’t think he’s injured, but I guess you never know.

  160. MarkM says:
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    I got rear ended on my way home from work, so I didn’t get a pitch to see Statosphere-bug pitch. Did he really K 14, or is MLB network just making things up?

  161. MarkM says:
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    @MarkM: Stratosphere-burg*

  162. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Well, I’m a 1.5. I wasn’t expecting Greinke to help that, but I was hoping for a little more help in the ratio department.

    BTW, Stanton has debuted nicely too. Not that anyone will be talking about that!

  163. BSA says:
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    @Steve: Yeah I noticed Stanton came in and simply got on base. Looks like a cool customer who didn’t try swinging for the fences.

  164. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @MarkM: It’s all true.

    @Steve: Yeah, Stanton’s Page 2.

  165. charlie batch says:
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    I was planning on using my 12th of 12 waiver priority to pick up DlR at gavin floyd’s expense, but his start tonight if making me think I should hold onto him. I remember you saying he was due for a rebound, and I guess it’s come. I have DL room; would you drop any of Ian Kennedy, Brandon Morrow, or Floyd for DlR?

  166. Steve says:
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    Wait a minute – did Reyes hit a donk? ESPN shows it, but Yahoo doesn’t

  167. BSA says:
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    @Grey: What is going on with FHer these days? I expected better.

  168. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Sweet! You probably don’t recall, but you did say in reply to a question I asked in the forums about my H2H team that Tex, Grandy and Reyes should all get better…

  169. @thepizzaman: I have to have a reason (and not a particularly good one mind you) to gleefully hate a player. In fact off of the top of my head, only Centaur-Rod comes to mind.

    BTW way, I’m shocked to see he has 43 RBI. Dood is so unclutch!

    Wieters is going to get all crazy and Highlander on Strasberg. Watch!
    “There can be only one!”

    Maybe with the media attention being in DC, he’ll start hitting? Throw me a bone, I’m looking for light at the end of a dark dark tunnel…

  170. Dumbmutt says:
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    Pena you whore

  171. paulzone says:
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    would you own silva over any of these guys:

    oswalt, leake, slowey, nolasco

    (pitching cats: w, l, k, gidp, era, whip, s, hld)

  172. Hammerhead says:
    (link)

    @ Grey: I was proposed Miguel Cabrera, Ian Strewart for Kinsler, Ryan Howard (I own Kinsler / Howard & I am HAAAATTTIIIINGGGGGG on Kinsler hardcore right now). What do you think?

  173. Tom Emanski says:
    (link)

    Grey, can you rank these guys: Keppinger, Sean-Rod, Freddy Sanchez, and Brignac. Sean-Rod seems to be turning it around. Keppinger just keeps hitting. Don’t know who to trust though.

  174. BSA says:
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    OK – Why the F would you let FHer go back out there? He didn’t have it and was already dancing with 100 pitches.

  175. Howard says:
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    Those PHillies! They got fans puking, babies drinking and then Lidge goes and craps all over my WHIP! Charges will be laid!

  176. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: Boesch over Frenchy right?

  177. paulzone says:
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    pick a rf out of gomes, pence, hart, ross and torres…

    cats: r, hr, rbi, sb, gidp, err, avg, obp

    my cruz fill in…

  178. MarkM says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Quick, which of the following should I trade Strasburg for:

    1) Joe Girardi’s braces, complete with display case and CoA
    2) A piece of Big League Chew discarded by Terry Francona
    3) Pine tar smudged towel retrieved from from Kenny Rodgers hand from the 2nd inning of the 2006 World Series
    4) A vial of Jim Joyce’s tears

    His value is so high right now I need to sell, but I can’t decide which would help me more. It’s 12 team H2H points, if that helps.

  179. sean says:
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    Perfect example of why I love middle relievers: tonight I start Hughes and his line is nothing fancy, but good enough for a win (6 IP, 4K, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), but when you add in Luke Gregerson (IP, 3K). You get a line of: 7 IP, 7 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, W.

  180. royce! says:
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    CJ Wilson v. SEA, Kennedy v. ATL, or Harang v. SF tomorrow?

  181. GopherDay says:
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    I have Vladdy, Zimm, Grandy, and KJ all go deep for me today!! But Grandy and Wright’s steals gave me a 2.5 point addition!!! One more SB and I add another point.

    On a different note…Its a keeper league where you keep players 2 rounds ahead of where you drafted them. Would you drop Quintin whenever Snider comes off the DL? I’ve got Snider for a last round keeper for next year and Q would cost me a 10th round pick.

    p.s. Is Stephen posting a minor league article any time soon? I’ve got a question about a minor leaguer I want to ask him.

  182. royce! says:
    (link)

    @MarkM: Well, that all depends. From which end was the Francona Big League Chew discarded?

  183. MarkM says:
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    @royce!: Haha. That’s like the old “Which J. Weaver are you offering again?”

  184. royce! says:
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    ‘Cos if it came out of the end I’m thinking of, he may have consumed it during the year the broke the curse. Aka, The Curse.

  185. GopherDay says:
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    @sean: I know what you mean. I don’t have any starters going, but even then 4 of my holds guys are going and I get a win, 4 Ks 2.08 ERA 0.46 WHIP in 4 IP. I didn’t get any HLDS or SVS, but that line is perfect by me!!

  186. BSA says:
    (link)

    Hi, my name is John Axford and I am buying a round of drinks for Casey, Ricky, and Prince tonight after allowing me to pull a “W” out of my a**.

  187. Or the opposite. I had Strasburg tonight and Matt Thornton just dumped on my face.

  188. dsimon says:
    (link)

    Grey I’ve got a buddy in an auction keeper league who needs Ks. He’s got ~150 left of his FAAB. There are a couple guys around 180 left. If he wins the bid, he can keep Strassy for $10 next year.

    He’s talking about bidding $120. I’m a Nats homer, and have no idea about FAAB leagues. Is he crazy? For reference, Wieters went for $80 last year when he joined the O’s; Posey for $65 this year. Not sure about pitchers though.

  189. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @dsimon: It sounds fine if he needs him.

  190. BSA says:
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    @Grey: Yeah I know I looked back and saw the number. The lack of offense is what makes it look worse than it really is, man is it annoying though.

  191. Stephen says:
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    @GopherDay: I’m here to ask.

  192. mr baseball says:
    (link)

    2 Black Labs Buccos Nick Hundley [ View Trade ] Scott Baker

    Buccos starting catcher is Kurt Suzuki – this trade is taking place in my 20 team dynasty – he does not pick him up as free agent 6 days ago – not even sure why he wants him now

    message I left on message board in league

    Buccos – am I missing something here
    Posted by: (The Keeper)
    Message ID: 665 Jun 8 11:02pm

    Jun 2 1:57pm Nick Hundley (SD – C) Add Free Agents 2 Black Labs

    YOU DID NOT WANT HIM WHEN YOU COULD HAVE DROPPED ANYONE FOR HIM

    June 8 – YOU WANT HIM – where were you in Transcendental Meditation with the The Maharishi the last 6 days

    Buccos starting catcher is Kurt Suzuki – this trade is taking place in my 20 team dynasty

  193. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mr baseball: Ha! I like how you take to task your leaguemates. I do the same thing.

  194. Danks Nugs says:
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    A-Gonz & Alcides for Uggla, Andrus, and T. Hudson?

    Here’s my team…

    C: Jaso | 1B: AGonz | 2B: Cano | 3B: A-Rod (K) | SS: A. Escobar | MI: Kel-Jo | CI: Panda (K)
    LF: Dunn, El Caballo | CF: Rasmus, A. Torres | RF: C. Ross, Stanton | U: Glaus, Votto (K)

    SP: Burnett, Danks, Garza, Kennedy, E. Santana, Wainwright
    RP: Contreras, F. Cordero, Corpas, Marmol, Meek, Zumaya
    Bench: Soto, Desmond, Ells (K), G. Beckham
    ‘Pen: Jurrjens
    DL: Volquez
    Minors: Bumgarner, Chapman

  195. @Grey: 15 team, 5×5, 2C, OBP instead of AVG. I have Snyder and Kottaras. Nick Hundley was just waived. Drop either of them for Hundley? Or drop Maybin?

    I have Santana waiting in the wings, so one of those bums will go.

  196. GopherDay says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Alright, thanks Grey!

    Who do you like better in a dynasty league? Kennedy or Cecil?

  197. GopherDay says:
    (link)

    @Stephen: Awesome! I actually don’t know what the question will be til tomorrow due to some possible moves. Just wondering when your next post was, I really do enjoy reading them! Its very hard to find a fantasy perspective on prospects, and your’s are top notch!!

  198. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @GopherDay: Thank you. I try to keep them informative in terms of prospect reporting yet adding the fantasy perspective at the end. I’ll be ready with open books to answer your question(s) tomorrow. Hopefully I have my crystal ball with too!

  199. Did Medlen get hurting scoring that run? Wondering why he was taken out after he was left in to bat in the 5th.

  200. GopherDay says:
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    @Stephen: Ah yes!! That infamous crystal ball!!! You know, the only problem with it is that sometimes it lies to you!!!

    Well my minor league team is getting a boost tomorrow with my first overall selection of OF Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals. Hopefully Boras doesn’t screw around with my player and not get a deal done. That would hurt on the inside!!

  201. Stephen says:
    (link)

    @GopherDay: Over at my Twitter account, I posted that Harper would take at least 3 year if he stays at catcher. However, with the news that the Nats are going to switch his position, I might bump up that time-table to 1 1/2 years to 2 years. That would be the fast track. I would still expect something similar to that of Stanton (2 2/3 years).

  202. Stephen says:
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    @Stephen: This was what a scout had told Joe Posnanski.

  203. Stephen says:
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    @Stephen: @GopherDay: Let me clarify, in my haste to write that comment I left out one very important detail – an unnamed scout told Joe Posnanski that it would probably be a three year time table before Harper would see the majors. This was pre-outfield talk. Sorry for the confusion. I didn’t catch how ridiculously confusing my comment was in the beginning.

  204. mr baseball says:
    (link)

    @grey @mr baseball: Ha! I like how you take to task your leaguemates. I do the same thing.

    message board answer

    Re: Buccos – am I missing something here
    Posted by: BG4Life (Buccos)

    just thinking long term

    I have no cpme back to this answer – BUT YOU COULD HAVE HAD HIM AS A FREE AGENT 6 DAYS EARLIER

  205. dingers says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Hey Grey, got offered his Greinke for my Reyes. I’m sitting in 3rd currently with Tulo starting SS, Jose Utility…my ERA is a mess. . thoughts? think Greinke rights the ship? thx

  206. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: Better DL stash, Snider or De La Rosa?

  207. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mr baseball: So could have the other guy. Why does he want him?

  208. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @dingers: Worth a chance, unless you can do better with Reyes.

    @tHe ShiT: Snider

  209. @Grey: Surprised. I thought you’d say Maybin after Stanton’s call up. I’m more inclined to keep the Greek Demi-God of walks. He has a 26/15 BB/K rate and a .265 ISO. I’m hurting already in OBP with fools like Bench-ham, Headley and Maybin.

    Snyder is only good for the occasional homer but he’s a’ight. Maybin may just find himself back in AAA.

    If I told you I had 3 bench spots (and an innings limit, so I can’t use them to stream starters like nuts) would have change your mind? I’m more inclined to have 3 C’s and then just dump one if/when Santana gets his ass up in the bigs.

  210. mr baseball says:
    (link)

    just thinking long term HE THINKS HUNDLEY IS 20 years old I imagine

    grey I had to post one more thing about the trade

    Kurt Suzuki (he is his catcher now) – he is trading for Nick Hundley for the future – first of all he now has 2 catchers in a 20 team dynasty league that has 5 bench spots and gave away a good starting pitcher

    Kurt Suzuki will turn 30 in the year 2013

    and hit 15 homeruns and had 88 RBI’s last year

    My Bucco do you know how old Nick Hundley will be in the year 2013 ——- 30 years old

    in conclusion with trades like this there is no future for your team

  211. tHe ShiT says:
    (link)

    When will Stanton get added to the Yahoo! player pool? Hes available in one of my Yahoo! leagues, but not in my other…

  212. penpen says:
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    I’ve been strictly adhering to the Popeil catcher method with Soto, but dude seems to have some playing time blues, and Sweet LP loves slotting him in the sweet sweet 7 and 8 holes where he has racked up 13 ribbies this year. Reset catcher to Suzuki and then re-forget?

  213. Mike says:
    (link)

    Drop Freese for Aramis?

  214. @Grey: I hear you. My rationale is that I’m already projecting -16 games played at catcher, so at least the third catcher will see some playing time, while Maybin sits anyway.

    Of course it wouldn’t surprise me to see Ross traded and Maybin play better in the 2nd half.

  215. ViagraFalls says:
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    I was bitten by the elusive Carlos Pena as I had him benched for Tuesday’s game (on account of his poor BA and poor history with that pitcher). And he goes for 2 HR’s, one of them a GS. I know the necessary evils that come along with owning him, but that one hurt. It’s rolling dice, I know, but do you think Pena might be coming out just a little?

    Also, I have Freese riding the pine on my roster much of the time, occasionally being rotated in. He bats for average mostly and has some pretty decent stats but nothing flashy. Aside from his current injury, do you think he is worth keeping on a roster or is the space better filled by someone else? I am in an 8 man league with the vast majority of talent already someone’s bitch. So, I am left with guys like Willingham, Hart, Glaus, Konerko, Rolen and openings here and there.

    And no one in my league is eager to talk trades, especially with how stacked most people are with such a small league. Is Freese worth it? Thx, Grey (and anyone else with advice…)

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