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This will probably be the last time you hear me talk positively about Carlos Gonzalez.  He’s going to be overrated next year.  (Well, that positive stuff was short-lived.)  There’s no way around it.  But, for one last time, let’s live in the moment and assume you drafted him around the 10th round last year.  That makes him some kinda keeper because he’s not going that late in 2011 fantasy baseball.  Shoot, he may not see the 2nd round.  You could probably trade CarGo right now for, say, Prince Fielder and sex with your leaguemates’ wife.  It’s Indecent Proposal with…. Overweight guys!  I like it, I like it.  Who do we have to star in it?  Who else?  Kevin James!  He’s so lovable!  Or how about we get Tyler Perry to direct and get Cedric the Entertainer to star?  I love it!  So in 2010, Carlos Gonzalez was All-World for fantasy.  A five category performer.  111/34/117/.336/26 was the line.  At one point, he helped your grandfather down from the third floor of a burning building.  Cost you your inheritance, but you still got Pop-Pop to tell you stories about what grandma looked like in a girdle.

Last year, Mark Reynolds was a solid keeper and also overrated.  I’ll say this, I think CarGo will be better in 2011 than what Mark Reynolds was in 2010.  My CarGo concerns, which I’ll get to when I go over his overrated post, have more to do the insane year he just had and how every single thing that could go right did.  It’s not like CarGo will collapse and become a droppable piece of fantasy driftwood.  He’s a 20/20 guy with a high .280-ish average.  It’s completely solid.  It is not 110+ Runs and RBIs, 30+ homers and a near-.340 average like it was in 2010.  I mean, c’mon.  You want fantasy baseball?  Thinking you’re going to get that again is fantasy baseball.  In 2011, I see a line of 90/24/95/.285/20.  That’s a totally solid keeper, but it’s not– Okay, we’ll hold on what it’s not for another day.

88 Responses

  1. Steve says:
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    Love him for $10. Love him.

    BTW, Grey – hope you’re resting up (emoticon).

  2. big o says:
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    2 red flags .

    .384 babip

    26 (of 34) home runs hit @ home .

    wouldn’t surprise me it he hits less than 20 ,
    and steals more than 35 , in 2011 ,
    as some may elect to pitch around him and face tulo , instead .

  3. Bob Jack says:
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    Do you actually watch these players play or just sit around on your computer all day? Cargo was incredibly legit. This guy is a superstar. Your fantasy geek stats have no basis in reality. Cargo will be off the charts if he doesn’t get injured.

  4. Mowses says:
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    He probably even beat his 2010 Bill James Projection

    ’nuff said!

  5. Tony says:
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    @big o: he still plays for colorado right big O? so he’s still got that HR advantage, i think he’ll hit 20+ easy, his babip is worrisome tho, the guy struck out alot and didn’t really walk… but grey kept saying he’d fall off all year and he never did. I think there will be some regression but not a drop off the map. Having a healthy Tulo behind him is not going to get him pitched around but will get him pitched too….

    @Bob Jack: in 2009 you probably said the same about mark reynolds…. carlos gonzalez is a stud, but he was off the charts last year. Lots of statistics point to that he can not sustain that production. He might of had his CAREER year last year. Fantasy baseball is all about looking at players stats and where they will be taken in drafts and judging where the value picks are… everyone thats a fan of the game or fantasy agrees cargo is good, but first round good? sure, but you’re paying for last years stats and risking your first round pick on a guy who’s done it one year…. hmmm matt kemp anyone?

  6. Andrew says:
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    Very early ADP of 8 on Mock Draft Central. Ahead of Tex, Howard, Cano, Crawford, Braun, Prince, A-Rod, Halladay…

  7. El Famous Burrito says:
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    I got offers of Pujols for Cargo. That’s how crazy it was last year.

    I ended up taking Pujols and Pedro Alvarez for Cargo and Carlos Pena.

    People are out of their damn minds.

  8. Marlo Stanfield says:
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    @Andrew: Who of those names would you take ahead of him? I’m thinking Crawford and Cano and maybe Braun. Maaaaybe Tex. But that’s it really. I think Arod is on a steady dose of decline, Howard is as K riddled as Cargo, Prince coming off a terrible year, and who picks pitching in the first round?

    I agree that Cargo will decline in 2011 because only Pujols can sustain numbers like that. Not to change the subject and I’m sure there is a post coming, but is Votto any more stable than Cargo?

  9. Andrew says:
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    @Mario Stanfield: I didn’t mean to imply that I’d take all of those players before CarGo. That being said, I’d certainly take Crawford ahead of CarGo as he’s the only non-Pujols player to rank in the top 5 the past two seasons. I’m a sucker for reliability in the first round, so I’d also take Teixeira over CarGo, as Tex is about as safe as it gets. I’d go with Braun over CarGo too; both possess great skills, but Braun’s are more consolidated. If push came to shove, I’d also take Cano, although I think he’s a tad overvalued right now, too. Some of the other players, however, worry me. I’m not touching A-Rod in the first round with that worrisome hip.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Eh, I got jury duty today, so tried to push the time and emailed her two days ago. Never heard back.

    @big o: Those are a start, yeah.

    @Bob Jack: I watched him a lot.

    @Andrew: Yeah, there’s a few names I’d take ahead of him.

    @El Famous Burrito: Yeah, that’s a nice return for you.

    **Scroll down for the overall results, not a bad showing. (Bill James is listed as Baseball Info Solutions.)***

    http://tangotiger.net/forecast/results2010.html

  11. Tony says:
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    @Andrew: @Marlo Stanfield: ya half those guys shouldn’t go ahead of cargo or be considered. I’m still not a fan of tex and after last year wow, i wouldn’t take him, crawford might be a safer bet than cargo, braun has more upside for power, no way would i take any pitcher over cargo, or prince, arod is almost a DO NOT DRAFT for me… its all a question of position, potential, upside, etc…. where is votto going ADP wise right now? I’d take him top 5.

  12. Andrew says:
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    @Tony
    Very early Mock Draft Central Top 12, for what it’s worth:

    1. Pujols
    2. Hanley
    3. Miggy
    4. Longoria
    5. Tulo
    6. Votto
    7. Wright
    8. CarGo
    9. Tex
    10. Howard
    11. Cano
    12. Crawford

  13. Jake says:
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    @Bob Jack:

    .384 BABIP, more than 3:1 K:BB, 20% HR/FB…everything is coming down, except maybe the steals.

    But you probably don’t want to hear about it… DUDE can HIT!

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Andrew: That’s kinda ridiculous.

  15. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Not sure I understand the measurement standards regarding tangotiger. It appears to me that the “winner” is the one where most of the other guys matched his. It doesn’t seem to match against the actual end of season performance of the players. Is that correct?

    Just asking because I did a little study that showed CHONE initially strong against end of year, but he generally projects low. So, I removed the injured players, and he finished even with the pack.

    If those guys at the top generally pick low, and the injured players are removed, and projections are based on end of year results, the outcomes may/will be quite different.

    Of course, that hinges on my first question..?

  16. royce! says:
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    @Andrew: @Grey: I looked at the ADP report yesterday and concluded that it must be off because not many drafts have actually occurred- and sure enough, today’s numbers are based on 6 drafts. I wasn’t actually all that surprised where CarGo ended up. I was more aghast by Ethier being drafted 21st, so I had to look for a reason for this.

  17. Tony says:
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    @Andrew: @Grey: thats probably alot of auto drafting too….

  18. Tony says:
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    @royce!: eithier 21st, ha… thats laughable.

  19. royce! says:
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    Regarding CarGo, his home/road splits, as big o pointed out, are insane. And according to hittracker, 18 of his HR were either just enoughs or lucky. That ties him for 3rd in the NL for just enoughs, and top in the NL for lucky HRs. So I think the latter fact supports reducing his HRs to the 20s for 2011. I don’t see why he wouldn’t reproduce insane home/road splits.

  20. Stephen says:
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    @royce!: That reminds me of Joe Mauer’s 2009 season followed up by his 2010 season.

  21. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @royce!: Now, you are nailing it. Nice! and Thanks!

  22. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @royce!: What’s the link to “hittracker”?

  23. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Remember what i told u about how i got out of serving on the jury. Hopefully u dont have to resort to it. Hope u make it out of there duty-free!

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: This is more Rudy’s thing so I’ll make sure he sees your comment. Plus, I’m at jury duty and it’s hard to type.

    @royce!: Yeah, that’s too small a sample size.

    @tHe sHiT: Gotta watch Wopner…

  25. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Who or wut is that? Sorry but i dont follow…

  26. Chris says:
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    Current very small sample size ADP –

    Sandoval at 28
    Zobrist at 35
    Hamilton at 57
    Cahill at 74
    Utley at 94!

    Yeah, I don’t think there’s any significance whatsoever right now…

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tHe sHiT: You said you rocked back and forth like Rainman. That line above is from that movie.

  28. TJ says:
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    I loved having CarGo last year, as he was the fantasy nectar of the gods.

    That said, he’s gonna be very over-rated going into 2011. I’m trying to move him in my keeper league right now, hoping to get back Braun, Longoria or Tulowitzki.

    As a last ditch effort, I may end up moving him for Lincecum or Lester. Where I can only keep CarGo for 2 more years, I’d have either SP for 5 years.

  29. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    if you’re still at jury duty , i’m guessing that you didn’t use my
    brother-in-law quote/line .

  30. @simply fred: tangotiger goes over his rules here: http://www.tangotiger.net/forecast/rules.html. he basically simulates fantasy drafts and looks to see how well each projection system performs vs. others. he takes Marcel/CHONE data and projects it against fan playing time projections. i use CHONE for our Point Shares but have to use different playing time estimates since we put them together in the March 1st time period rather than right around opening day (given drafts happen throughout March).

    Net-net, I’d say CHONE is the best free estimates but you need to adjust the playing time estimates for them to have real value…

  31. Chris says:
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    Someone should put together a way too early, yet still enjoyable razzball mock draft for the top 100. Not me in particular, because I’m somewhat lazy, but I would still participate!

    Would be interested in the results…

  32. The Dude says:
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    @Chris: Also Tim Lincecum does not even make the top 273!

  33. Black Beard says:
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    6×5 (+OPS) league:

    Better keeper, Bautista or Alex Rios?

  34. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @royce!: I’ll follow you anywhere! Thanks!

  35. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks, Rudy. A little challenging for me. Still hard for me to decipher if they measure against real results or just “competition” amongst draft position. I used the link to Tango to ask the question.

  36. Black Beard says:
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    Who is John Eric Hanson?

  37. brad says:
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    Does anyone have a system for determining relative values in keeper leagues? What I mean is, I will be keeping CarGo in the 22nd round in a 14 team league (kept him last year) and can do so for 3 more years. In my mind he’s virtually untouchable at that spot, at least until after the draft, he’s maybe the most valuable player in the league.

    In this situation would you ever consider trading him? What would it take?

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @TJ: There ya go.

    @big o: Haven’t even had a chance yet.

    @Black Beard: Bautista

    @Black Beard: No idea.

    @brad: Too many variables for a system. Go for someone who’s a steady producer every year at a cheap price.

  39. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    holy crap .
    4 hours later ?
    how was lunch ? haha .

    don’t do anything rash .
    hate to see you be the next one on the docket .

  40. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Oh ok, sorry I have only seen the movie once and dont recall quotes from it. But it was a very good movie. You make it out of jury duty yet?

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: I’m still here… Ugh.

    @tHe sHiT: Nope… Still here.

  42. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Getting late. Any sign of John Larroquette?

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Harry just did a magic trick for us.

  44. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: What court are you at?

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ThE sHiT: Out now. Was at the municipal court on Hill St.

  46. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    gotta go back ?

  47. royce! says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Thursday might be a good time to schedule some sort of interaction with a lady (or ladies, generally): http://tinyurl.com/2vpczrq

    World is yours!

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Nah, I wasn’t called. All done.

    @royce!: Why isn’t that every day?

  49. big o says:
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    many are called , but few are chosen .

  50. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Grey: $20 parking? $10 lunch?

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: I guess so.

    @ThE sHiT: Free parking, $12 lunch, not getting called back on Monday — priceless.

  52. tHe sHiT says:
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    @Grey: Lol yes indeed!
    Encarnacion to the A’s…

  53. Bum Juice says:
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    @Black Beard: He’s apparently a baseball stat enthusiast, and frequent commenter at sites like Tom Tango. Supposedly he is going to release his projections this year (tentatively called something like “Slapshot’) at FanGraphs. So yeah, they’ll probably be way off this time.

  54. Bum Juice says:
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    that should say frequent commenter at sites like Tom Tango’s.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tHe sHiT: A’s are building quite the team. Maybe they’re trying the Giants outcast thing.

    @Bum Juice: Ha

  56. Hans says:
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    Took Cargo in the 8th & 7th rounds last year in my two leagues and people thought that was wayyyyyy to early……I will be spending my 1st pick next year on Cargo, outside of Pooooholes and Miggy……..Yeah thats right If I have the 3rd pick I’m taking Cargo and no way he hits .280 next year thats crazy…….

  57. Tom Emanski says:
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    So, you’re saying CarGo won’t be carrying any toner with him next year?

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Hans: You do what you do.

    @Tom Emanski: Was he an intern? Not following…

  59. GopherDay says:
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    @Tom Emanski: Bomb scare reference?

    Maybin traded to the Padres. Change of scenery could do him good.

  60. big o says:
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    hope the off-season doesn’t get any more boring than today has been .

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Wow, I like Maybin going to the Padres but I’ve also been drinking since noon.

  62. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Ha! I don’t think we should be expecting many homers, but if he can start putting contact on the ball and get his strikeout rate down, he can get the gaps in Petco and get on base and steal some. That’s if he doesn’t suck.

    Look at Webb (One of the guys sent to the Marlins) as a potential closer candidate?

  63. big o says:
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    @GopherDay:

    probably less chance to close than mujica

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Agree with O about possible closers. Homers didn’t look like they were coming anyway, but now he has a place to run, like you said.

  65. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    changing subjects ===> alcides escobar .

    how big of a bounce-back season are you expecting from him ?
    he doesn’t strike-out much , but that .235 avg is a killer .
    is this the year he shows his speed ?

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: I’ve already written a sleeper post about him. Or, uh, December Grey has.

  67. Busta Posey says:
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    Werth or Brett Anderson in dynasty league?

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Busta Posey: Like to wait to see where Werth ends up this offseason, but I’d take him right now.

  69. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Along those same lines…does December Grey have any thoughts about Everth Cabrera?

  70. Steve says:
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    Twitterland saying Uggla most likely to end up with the Jays, if he goes anywhere. You’d have to think he’d find right in with the happy hackers.

    Rockies tried for him during the season, but too expensive.

  71. royce! says:
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    As a Padres fan, I love the Maybin trade. Especially considering how SD landed Webb (one of the lesser-knowns involved in SD dealing Kouz) and Mujica (sent from CLE for “future considerations”). But I’ve been drinking since SD lost the last game of the season…

  72. Tom Emanski says:
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    @GopherDay: Yep, Yemeni bomber reference. Come on Grey!

  73. Tom Emanski says:
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    @Tom Emanski: Because he’s not going to explode…

    OK it’s ruined

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: You know, I kinda love all cheap fast middle infielders.

    @Steve: Man, I couldn’t think of a better place for him.

    @royce!: Yeah, even sober I like Maybin on the Padres. Kinda Angel Pagan-like appeal there.

  75. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Rockies?

    Or Jays? How so? Not disagreeing, just interested.

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Jays… Cause like you said, he’s an all-power guy. Perfect fit…

  77. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ah. He can just swing, swing away – and still be right in line with team philosophy.

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Exactly… They could have a team average of .245 and everyone could hit 30 homers.

  79. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Getting Uggla would be nice, but what they really need is a transfer to a new division.

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: They might be able to squeeze out a wild card if their pitching breaks right.

  81. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Total change of subject, but Thomas Keller (French Laundry guy) is coming down here. Doing a special dinner with Heston Blumenthal (another 3-star Michelin chef). Prices start at something like 5K per couple…

  82. big o says:
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    December Grey
    seems far away ,
    when sleeper posts
    come into play .

    burma shave

  83. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That’s crazy. I’d want want a used car for dessert for that price.

    @big o: Enjoy the rookie posts this month. They get old so quick.

  84. big o says:
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    lou pinella visited our casino , yesterday .
    billed as a “yankee legend” ,
    he sat at a table in the concourse , where he signed autographs
    and posed for photos .

    interestingly(?) enough , they positioned him
    just outside the “coach store” , where ,
    inside they will gladly sell your wife a pocket-book
    for $5 G’s .

  85. big o says:
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    had i been able to ask sweet lou a question ,
    it would have been this :
    “did you ever consider cutting carlos z some slack ,
    for his fiery out-bursts , because
    the catchers were all pot-heads ?”

  86. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, it’s a lot, but apparently these guys can charge up to a 100K a night EACH, so in that context it’s not a bad deal. I think if I had that kind of money to throw around, I’d be all over it.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=10687466

  87. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: That’s funny. Yeah, Big Z was just losing his patience with his catchers cause they were slow on the uptake.

    @Steve: I think I’ve actually heard of The Fat Duck from Anthony Bourdain’s show.

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