@chata: Haven’t watched the first episode yet, will tomorrow night.

super chefs (iron chef elimination) … always liked this
michael chiarello …. ok , maybe a bit too much emphasis on wine …
but , i do think that , sooner or later , he’s going to tell a judge off ,
and that will be his downfall .

@VinWins: The sausages are surrounding him and a guy in black face…. Yes!

http://www.americanmustacheinstitute.org/blog/2011/10/john-axford-2011-robert-goulet-memorial-mustached-american-of-the-year/

I shall play some Yron Like A Lyon In Zyon in your honor.

Shabba!

@chata: So you think Lousiana is the LA I’m always talking about? Nope…

i figured it out , or at least i have a theory .
you don’t really live in california .
you live in louisiana …… which would account for all of your
“flights” to florida and to austin .
you guys have a bus running through there about every couple
of weeks , don’t you ?

@chata: Depends on what he’s teaching his hitters, I suppose.

@The Sequential Hermaphrodite: Nice summation.

Think about it this way.. a player’s HR total is pretty much a function of their FB% and the percentage of those fly balls that go for HR’s (HR/FB%).. So with Kinsler, his FB% was higher than normal this year and his HR/FB% is pretty variable with no clear trends and was a career high in 2011.. Both could go down closer to his averages and his HR total would decrease. Also, the 155 games he played this year was the most he has ever played in a season, and I wouldn’t expect a repeat in that, because he always seems to get stupid injuries and land on the DL.. So those are 3 factors that would cause a decrease in his HR total, and I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 32 HR’s. 24 is a much more realistic number.

However, Kinsler is still a great guy to have on your team, because he will keep on stealing plenty of bases and his average could easily go up.

his 1st legitimate one .

@simply fred: You need to look at career trends, not just one year.

@Awesomus Maximus: Exactly!

@wily mo: Ah… I see. Yeah, perhaps it’s too hypothetical rather than a hard number I can see.

@Lance Berkman: Ha

@simply fred: Yes, what he said.

How do you evaluate a guy like Kinsler? both his LD% and HR/FB appear low, but in line with his career. Yet, he hit a significant number of HR. Just means that he flies out a lot?

I think that it is good to look at player’s historical rates, because if their LD% or HR/FB% are way different one year, there is a good chance it is an outlier. With Matt Kemp, his HR/FB% this year of 21.4% is way off his career of 16%, so there is a good chance he falls down to 30 HR’s or worse. Mike Napoli will likely fall from his absurd 25.4% HR/FB, but could still have a solid rate around his average at 19% and could still post 30 HR’s when he gets way more at bats next year.

PLAYER TEAM LD% HR/FB%
Mike Napoli TEX 19.6% 25.4%
Mike Stanton FLA 16.3% 24.8%
Jose Bautista TOR 16.0% 22.5%

PLAYER TEAM LD% HR/FB%
Ryan Roberts ARI 24.3% 12.1%
Alex Gordon KC 22.0% 12.6%
Mike Trout LAA 20.7% 13.5%
Ian Kinsler TEX 17.6% 12.5%

unless he drops to the 2nd round .
or the 3rd round .
or
the
fourth
round .

@Awesomus Maximus: Oofa… I thought it was by Mike at first.

**I’m going out dressed as Lionel Joseph, pray I don’t get pulled over by an African American cop with no sense of humor.