Here’s the deal. We all love guys with exciting upside, but every now and then we forget that there may still be upside remaining in certain players. Starlin Castro is currently sporting an uninspiring .650 OPS, by far a career low. When I was at the Cubs game this past Sunday, it was mentioned that it was Castro’s 500th big league game. Pretty impressive, especially considering that he’s only 23. So, let’s think about it – Are we going to put more weight in his struggles this season or the chance for a rebound, based on his past numbers and youth? I’m going with the latter. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb, let’s call it an arm and a leg, and say that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him produce a .290/.340/.450 line for the rest of 2013. That would be elite for a shortstop, especially a healthy one. Typically shortstops hurt your OPS, but Castro can be one who actually helps it. I’d be seeing if his current owner is worried about him, especially in a keeper league. He could continue to be a top shortstop for the next decade.
Mark Appel – In last week’s post, the commenter who correctly guessed that I’m going to be in Bolivia for the next two weeks, Philsfan76, wanted me to provide an update on Mr. Appel. Scott, the prospect writer, must have sensed my lack of insight on him because he came to the rescue and wrote about him the very next day. Also, since I’m going to be on vacation beginning on Thursday, be sure to get your questions, comments, and suggestions for bands that I need to see in before then.
Mike Trout – Rule number one in fantasy baseball: Never doubt Mike Trout. In April, I said, “His slow start doesn’t have me worried at all and I fully expect him to post similar numbers to last year. I kept hearing the “fact” that he would regress, but I don’t think that’s a given. Regression is never inevitable.” I still expect him to approach his 2012 numbers this season, so do with that what you will.
Chase Headley – I thought he was going to turn things around last month, but unfortunately that didn’t happen. Still, I believe that he will approach last year’s .286/.376/.498 line going forward. He really turned things on in the second half last season and I’m thinking that could be no coincidence since he’s a switch hitter. If Mark Teixeira has taught me anything, it’s that switch hitters awaken from their hibernation around the All Star Break.
Pedro Alvarez – I’m still surprised he’s as widely available as he is. On a different note, let’s see if these Spanish lessons are working. Fill in the blank: Pedro tiene _____.
Matt Holliday – He currently has a .743 OPS. I expect him to have an OPS that is at least 100 points higher for the rest of 2013.
Brett Lawrie – He’s being dropped everywhere. I’m not entirely confident about a rebound (how’s that for an endorsement?), but I’d take a chance in all leagues where you have DL or bench space.
David Freese – Three weeks ago, I said that he’s going to turn things around. In the past 15 days, he’s had over a 1.100 OPS, and he’s still available in some leagues. You know what to do.
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