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Tommy John surgery, Dr. Freeze, Adam Wainwright.  Words you just don’t want to hear.  Okay, not Dr. Freeze as much unless you only get your news from Razzball, which I’m fine with but you may walk around calling people schmohawks and telling your girlfriend her meatloaf was kinda yawnstipating.  Rudy totally called this one! (Just a fraction too early, like 12 months.)  Obviously, this is terrible news for Wainwright owners (and kinda Wainwright himself).  If you are drafting right now, assume Wainwright will miss lots of time, if not the whole season.  I plan on moving Wainwright to the end of the top 80 starters.  I wouldn’t draft Wainwright in any league.  I also don’t believe in this, “Ooh, I’ll draft Wainwright for a dollar and sit him on my bench for a year in keepers.”  You’re using a bench spot that is critical to winning this year, which everyone should be trying to do.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Cliff Lee – Strained ab muscle.  He is like an apple.  The only thing that leaves a bad taste in your mouth is his core.  Word on the streets is he’ll be fine.  Going too high in drafts for me to take him anyway, so there’s that.

Corey Hart – Said on Monday that he played 2010 without contacts.  You’d think the Brewers could spring for some prescription sunglasses for night games.

Neftali Feliz – The Rangers are stretching him out to see if he can move into the rotation.  If it happens, he would immediately be in the top 40 starters, right behind Marcum in the tier, “I kinda love these guys.”  I’m not completely convinced it is going to happen as Ron Washington has said he likes Feliz getting the final three outs.  Also, it could be one of those shituations where Feliz looks great in the rotation and Mark Lowe is the closer for three days, gets rocked and Feliz is the closer again.  The good thing about this is if you draft Feliz, he’ll have value wherever he ends up.

Vicente Padilla – His forearm didn’t say it was a forearm before it grabbed his nerve and now his nerve has a case of entrapment.  Or something.  Grey no doctor.  Padilla does need elbow surgery, but he shouldn’t have been drafted in any leagues in the first place.  BTW, Padilla before the elbow painPadilla after the elbow pain.

Matt Kemp – Reports say he dropped 15 pounds in the offseason.  I thought Rihanna weighed at least a couple more pounds than that.

Brian Roberts – Going for X-rays on his neck.  Blech.  Do me a favor and don’t draft him.  He’s like Mr. Glass brittle.

Alfredo Simon – There’s no plan right now to exonerate Simon in manslaughter charges.  It’s Oriole profiling.  This pattern goes all the way back to Ben McDonald when he was accused of using his right hand to fondle three men’s testicles at the same time at a Sandals resort.

Francisco Liriano – Threw a bullpen session on Tuesday after complaining of some shoulder tightness last week.  I’m staying cautiously optimistic about Liriano, thinking that if you drafted him last week right after the shoulder tightness news came out you might’ve got yourself a bit of a discount.

Nick Punto – Out 8-12 weeks with a sports hernia.  Calling his hernia a ‘sports’ hernia is both a literal and figurative stretch.

  1. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Grey, someone asked a similar question yesterday but my shituation is a little different…..In a 6×6 (OPS) keeper in which I already have 2B and 3B covered with Cano and Longo, would it be crazy to draft 2 big bopper 1B (Howard and Fielder possibly) when I draft at #10 and #11 overall? I’d put the 2nd guy at CI. Feel like having OPS as a cat really favors POWER. Thoughts?

    great stuff today btw.

  2. JustMatt says:
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    Second poster! My best yet. I’d like to thank Adam Wainwright. His cartilage, my family….

  3. Eddy says:
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    Ha!! This entire article brought out the lawls in me.

    Nicely done, Grey.

  4. Jay says:
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    Grey, what about drafting Wainwright for $1 and keeping him one of three DL slots all year and having him for $4 in 2012? That’s a no brainer to me. Probably could go a lot higher (though it’s hard to bank on pitchers performing well until 18 months after TJ).

  5. JustMatt says:
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    Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!

    Can’t wait for this year’s shaky pitcher article – could another Cardinal hurler be reprising his role on the list? No wonder they’re not just handing out 10-year deals in St. Louis.

  6. NewBVick says:
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    Ha, apple core. Someone get this man an Ab Slider STAT!

  7. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    Another “inverted W” guy bites the dust.

  8. wilsoniam says:
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    grey, can you rank these unranked SP (for a super deeeeeep league)

    guthrie/garland/bedard/holland/rzep…

    thanks!!!

  9. GopherDay says:
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    No Minor League Run Review, the ace of my pitching staff needs TJ surgery, and I’m hungry. Today is not my day…

  10. Wake Up says:
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    Just a guess…Rudy likes J Johnson and has T Hanson as an injury risk.

  11. The Vaporizers says:
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    @Buddo Chezuski: How many players get kept?

    I can’t believe that both Howard and Fielder would be available at the end of round 1 in an existing keeper league.

  12. Derek in Utah says:
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    Was thinking about punting Catcher in my 16 mngr H2H Dynasty, but now I’m thinking I like me some Wieters.

    What do you say, Grey?

    Oh…and the Wainwright tragedy? That’s why you don’t draft SP’ers early on.

  13. Jay says:
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    @Grey: True, a 12-month recovery is not assured, but for $1 I’ll take the chance. Using 1 of 3 DL spots all year wouldn’t harm my 2011 team much at all.

    On a related note, with Wainwright’s value in my cheat sheet dropping from about $25 to $1, how should I re-distribute those dollars? Just +$1 to my top 24 pitchers? Or something else more logical?

  14. NVChris says:
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    Prescription sunglasses for night games (for Corey Hart)?

    GOOD, good stuff!

  15. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Vaporizers:

    The first few rounds cannot be kept and the league is 3-4 years old so guys who have been high draft picks for that time frame have not been keepers and get recycled back into the player pool each year

  16. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
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    @Grey: Re: Kemp…like you, I think he’s going to be a monster this year. Would prefer he not start hitting the “best shape of my life” radar. It’s best shape of my life/x lbs of muscle/x% body fat season. Daric Barton is RIPPED according SF paper.

  17. Cain Fan says:
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    I heard Pablo Sandoval lost 45 lbs of Goo. Another guy I would have liked to stay under the radar a bit longer.

  18. Van Hammersly says:
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    Blech! I am taking over an already pretty crappy team (10th place last yr.) in a 12-team, H2H keeper league. Without Wainwright (who I will certainly not keep now), here are 9 of my 10 permitted keepers:

    S. Drew
    Ethier
    Morneau
    Am. Ramirez
    Rasmus
    Teixiera
    Cliff Lee
    Lincecum
    Jer. Weaver

    Who should be my 10th keeper? Vernon Wells, Posada, Swisher, Red State Jeter, Hughes, Nolasco, Peavy?

    I know I could just go by Grey’s rankings, but I have the feeling he would say to weigh hitters more favorably than pitchers in this shituation. Thanks for the help!

  19. JustMatt says:
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    Speaking of the offseason weight loss reports they say ARod went from 12% to 9% bodyfat – isn’t 12% a little high for a world class athlete? Might be time to lay off the popcorn…

  20. Steve says:
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    And the opening day starter for the Twins is…

    … Carl Pavano.

  21. Jay says:
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    @JustMatt: A-Rod’s normal (non-PED-enhanced) workouts had been restricted since his 2009 hip surgery. This winter, doctors cleared him to work out full-bore, so he dropped weight.

    Hopefully, me being a Yankee fan, it means he can play a better 3B and steal a few bases, but he needs more than a body fat reduction to improve his subpar pitch recognition from last year.

  22. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: With Wainwright down I need another keeper. We keep 7. My 6 are:

    Fielder, Longoria, Kemp, J-Upton, Werth, Kershaw, & Wainwright

    The only other players I have in your top 100 are Jeter, Marmol, Tabata, & Sizemore. I have two 1st round picks. Should I move one for a Pitcher (got offers for Latos or Price) or stick with one of those guys and draft the best SP available right away? I have picks 4 and 9 of the first (8th) round.

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @timSTi: Trade all of them for another SP if you can.

  24. DominicanRepublican says:
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    Hi Grey! Concerning the “What It Takes to Win” series, it looks like for mixed league the league averages for runs were as follows:

    10-team league: 1120
    12-team league: 998
    14-team league: 1067
    16-team league: 1040

    The obvious outlier here is the 12-team league numbers, and this trend is consistent throughout just about every other category for High, Low, and Average scores. Is this some sort of massive sample size-related error or was the data from the two articles (the first on the 12er leagues and the second on 10er/14er/16er) pulled from different populations? I’m having a hard time deciding which set to look at because you should obviously expect better numbers in a 12er than a 16er.

    Thanks again!

  25. DominicanRepublican says:
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    P.S. I heard you had a draft today. How’d it go?

  26. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: Noone has interest in any of them. Only my picks. Keep Jeter and and grab an SP & 2B with my first two picks or trade a pick for a Latos/Price caliber player?

  27. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Look forward to Rudy creating the 2011 version. So pairing Tommy Hanson and Scherzer could be extra risky business this year then? I’m guessing that is the case since they were both on the 2010 list and escaped injury. According to Rudy they’re a couple of ticking timebombs.

  28. Jay says:
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    @Grey: Hey, you didn’t even hear my Jersey accent!

    Seriously, though, A-Rod’s 2010 was weird. Low BB rate, lots of swings at bad pitches, lots of weakly-hit balls. I doubt fitness was the problem, so I’m not sure what to expect this year.

  29. Derek in Utah says:
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    Grey, are you in any $$ leagues? If so, how many?

  30. Nuke LaLoosh says:
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    Crikey!

    I just submitted my keepers LAST NIGHT (12-team, 25-man roster, 7×6 MLB roto scoring, with OBP, SLG, and holds, up to 8 straight keepers, snake draft, I get the 6th or 7th pick each round) and the keepers were:

    Wainwright

    Hanson

    Haren

    Dunn

    Bruce

    Longoria

    Axford

    What the hell am I going to do now?

  31. zombie says:
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    @Grey: So does slotting Feliz after Marcum & D. Hudson, but ahead of Morrow & Volquez sound about right? & incidentally, I also more than kinda like Volquez. But most unfortunately, Dusty’s already indicating that he can hardly wait to rack up the innings on Edinson’s promising young arm by naming him the Opening Day starter.

  32. Howie Met Your Mother says:
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    @Grey

    If you were in a Ladies League (Yahoo Standard 10 team w/3 OFs & no CIF/MIF slots), what round do you imagine you’d be waiting til until you draft your first pitcher?

  33. JustMatt says:
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    @Jay: Maybe ARod needs to lose the 15 pounds that Kemp lost this offseason. I will not and cannot say the same for Jeter – Minka yes please!

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DominicanRepublican: Draft starts at 5PM… 12 team is an outlier b/c I choose to show 4th place.

    @timSTi: Go with Jeter…

    @Jay: Expect 30 homers, 5 steals and a .280 average and pray for more.

    @Derek in Utah: 2, we also just got into LABR.

    @Nuke LaLoosh: You still have two solid #2′s. Grab some threes and drop Wainwright once waivers starts if the news is terrible.

    @zombie: Yup

    @Howie Met Your Mother: Between 8 and 10….

  35. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Nuke LaLoosh: Faith and begorrah! I’m pretty sure……you’re fooked!

  36. Matt B says:
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    Hey Grey, looking forward to another great season.

    Keeper Question: 12 team 5×5 weekly h2h (OBP instead of AVG); Start 9 bats, 4SP, 2RP

    Which 5 to keep?
    -Definite
    SS H Ramirez
    3B R Zimmerman
    SP F Hernandez
    - Questions
    OF N Cruz
    1B A Dunn (1B is deep but I hate letting him go in OBP)
    2B D Uggla
    SP C Kershaw

    I also might be able to move a few of these to obtain a pick or upgrade

  37. papasmurf says:
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    Yahoo projects Soto will bat 8th. Could that be true? That seems insane to me given Soto’s plate selectivity.

  38. Steve says:
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    @Grey: In a way you should be proud. They went for the guy with the best ‘tache.

    Congrats on the LABR thingy. What’s the format there?

  39. Wade8813 says:
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    Everyone’s mentioned the Wainwright injury, but you’re the only one I’ve seen mention those other injuries. Are you going to turn into my go-to-guy for injury news? Thanks for the updates!

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Matt B: Dunn, Cruz… Nice options though, could go other ways.

    @papasmurf: I’ve heard that too, but it’s not set in stone yet. Hoping he bats 5th.

    @Steve: Thanks! Yeah, normal 5×5 shizz…

    @Wade8813: I hope so.

  41. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Congrats on the LABR entry! Is this a league that will be open to public viewing? I’d be quite interested in following it.

  42. Mr. T's Schmohawk says:
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    I’m in a 12 team 6×6 7 keeper league where no one keeps many pitchers. My luck with hitters the last 4 years has led me to have only pitchers for keepers. The best players for the first 2 round are pitchers. Should I keep 4 SP or sub par hitters.

    Halladay
    Greinke
    Liriano
    Haren
    H. Bell

    Bossman JR
    Kendry
    Wells
    Quentin
    A. Soriano
    Ortiz
    Napoli

    I might have to keep and draft pitching than grab all cheap speed and hope to win 5 pitching categories steals and runs.

  43. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I saw that. I don’t mean to demean your achievement of getting in, but you and Rudy must be pretty confident of a decent showing, if you know what I mean.

  44. KCC26 says:
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    ok another wainwright keeper replacement question. my league keeps 3. i was going to keep wainwright in the 6th round in addition to pujols and youkilis. do i replace him with Choo (7th round, 10th pick) or Marcum (round 17, pick 10)?

    this is in a league where many top pitchers are kept and so the best pitchers tend to come off the board much earlier than their ADP. I had been planning on keeping wainwright and then just drafting a ton of pitching between rounds 10 and 15. thoughts?

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Geez, no pressure. Eh, players still need to stay healthy…

    @KCC26: Choo

  46. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Of course, in the words of Ben Hogan (I’ve lost you, haven’t I?), a decent showing is anything better than second place. (emoticon).

  47. Rob says:
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    Rough day…I was gonna have wainwright as one of my keepers going into 2011, but now I need to adjust. My three best options are:

    Brandon Phillips(Would cost me a 3rd Round Pick)
    Cole Hamels(6th Round Pick)
    Daniel Hudson(since I picked him up as a FA would cost me a 13th round pick)

    My other keepers are Howard(1st Round Pick from 2010), Longoria(2nd from 2009), Adrian Gonzo(5th from 2009), and Jacoby(7th from 2009)

    I’m leanin Hudson though I dont like keeping pitchers but I could get Phillips with a third round pick anyways. Deciding between Hamels and Hudson then. Any advice??

  48. papasmurf says:
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    How’s Broxton looking so far? Any after effects from Torre arm abuse in July?

  49. Gregg Norton says:
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    In a league that counts BB and K as a category, does Carlos Santana appeal at all to you in the 8th round, or still hold off?

  50. Penguin says:
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    @Steve: Based on my experience in NFBC last year, if they don’t stay healthy, even the best lose. ;)

  51. Steve says:
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    @Penguin: (Sighs). Too true. Too true.

  52. T-BZA says:
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    Alex Gordon…off the radar completely? Or look to roster him in a 14 teamer and hope for a random 20/10?

    Thanks in advance.

  53. Giant JJ says:
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    I anyone else had problems printing out the tiers? I’m only able to print out the infield tiers.

  54. Nomar Mr. Nice Guy says:
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    Hey Grey how do you feel about including GIDP and Holds into a 12 person fantasy keeper league to make it a 6×6?
    I’m personally against Grounded Into Double Plays as a category, it just seems like a crapshoot stat that would overvalue speed players and leadoff hitters.
    If our manager is set on it though, would you change draft strategy (in the first few rounds) to avoid players who GIDP more frequently, or just punt that stat?

    Thanks Grey, and as always, your mustache looks great.

  55. Sabakafest says:
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    12 team 6×5 (ops). I’m keeping Crawford, AGonz, Andrus, and Bruce. Best available in the draft will be ‘do you know who I am ‘ Cabrera and David Metco Wright. Which do you take?

  56. captain yesterday says:
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    *sob*

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @T-BZA: Sure, in a deep 14 teamer.

    @Nomar Mr. Nice Guy: I think GIDP is a silly category and punt it if it goes into effect. Thanks from my mustache.

    @Sabakafest: Wright

  58. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @Giant JJ: If you send me your email, I can send you the tiers as an excel sheet.

    vinreich@zoho.com

  59. Giant JJ says:
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    Thanks VinWins.

  60. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    @Grey et al: Should I accept this trade offer in my 12 team roto keeper league (9×9 with holds and fielding categories)? Offer is my A-Gon, Beltre, & Marmol for his Howard & Wright. Thanks!

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bill Lumbergh: Yeah, go for it.

    ***Guys, I’m drafting help each other for a bit.

  62. Greytech Drafting says:
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    @Grey: Fantastic post, Grey!

    Daiquiri on the way!

  63. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Hope the draft is going well!

    I saw a screening of the upcowing movie, Hall Pass, and I gotta say,
    it gave me a few good laughs. Very reminiscent of the Hangover. Wasn’t expecting it to be that funny.

  64. Greytech Drafting says:
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    @Grey: y/w

    Hows the drafting going? Will you post some leagues of yours so we can follow?

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: You’re telling about 20 minutes too late. I had a screening to see it tonight at 7:30 but I stayed for the draft, even though Rudy’s doing it. I’m advising.

    @Greytech Drafting: Yeah, I’ll do a post on each league we’re in. Already have one, just waiting to post it, don’t think most people care to read about my teams.

  66. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Au contraire, Herr Blackadder.

  67. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Ah, sorry to hear that. It’s one of those that you either like or don’t like. If you liked the Hangover though, you’ll like this one as well.

    And I’m with Steve. Your team posts are probably the most important after your rankings for me. Gives me a chance to actually see all your strategies come to fruition.

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Well, we’ll see since Rudy just bought Span while I was typing this.

  69. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Well, seeing what happens when you deviate from your strategies (or are forced to) is useful too.

    Is this an auction you’re in?

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: It is an auction, yeah.

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: @Eddy: Team looks pretty solid though. We got some Napoli!

  72. Steve says:
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    @Grey: (Sings) In Napoli, where love is king…

  73. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Exactly!

  74. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Deano then falls down drunk.

    Speaking of falling down drunk, just five more sleeps til I can do that again.

  75. LMack says:
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    I agree. Grey’s/Rudy’s posts about their drafted teams are some of my favorite.

  76. GopherDay says:
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    Ditto on your team posts. Some of my favorites.

  77. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Nice! Did you get him for teh cheaps?
    @Steve:

    Steve, I never did get a chance to say that I’m glad to hear you weren’t affected by the recent earthquake. Not having much knowledge about NZ, you were really the only person I thought of upon hearing about it. You shall continue to represent the entire country in fantasy baseball!

  78. Steve says:
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    @Eddy: Yeah – all fine here. We’re about 600 miles north of where it happened so no effects here. Latest count is 92 dead and 200 missing feared dead, so it’s a terrible, terrible thing for the people down there and the country as a whole. There’s only 4 million of us so just about everyone knows someone who knows someone, as the saying goes.

    Don’t think I’m the only fantasy baseballer (thanks Mrs Albright!) here, but don’t think we’re a big community (emoticon). Though there is another NZer that posts here from time to time. Think is handle is dub2nz, or something similar.

  79. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: What, did you say til the end of February for no booze?

    @LMack: @GopherDay: Gotcha… Okay, they’re in the works.

    @Steve: Agree with Eddy. Good to hear you’re fine. Did you have family or friends down there?

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Or I guess it would be up.

  81. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yup, end of February.

    It’s down there. Auckland is in the North Island, Christchurch is in the South Island. I have an uncle who lives in the rural area surrounding the city and he his fine. And I have a cousin (the aforementioned uncle’s daughter, as it happens) who was there on business when the quake hit. She was in a meeting in a building with a a glass atrium – they all dived under the table and then ran like hell when the shaking stopped. She’s fine and back in Auckland now.
    Lucky? I reckon you could say that.

    It’s all over the TV of course. Heartbreaking to watch.

  82. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That’s good to hear, hopefully dbnz is fine too.

  83. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I’m sure he’s OK too. Christchurch is about 600 miles south of where I am, he’s probably about 60 miles south of me

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