I’m taking a break from telling you some obvious guys are keepers (Joey Votto is a keeper?! Get outta town, Grey!) to tell you Jhoulys Chacin is a keeper in some leagues. No, he’s not a keeper in 12 team mixed leagues if you’re choosing between him and Halladay (unless Halladay will cost you $75). At some point in January, I’m going to quote this article telling you how much I like Chacin in redraft leagues. Sleeper, anyone? At some point in March, I’ll probably post one of my teams and you’ll see Chacin on there. Not to mention, I have Chacin already on a keeper team of mine, so I’m pot committed. Yes, I’m holding Yo-lease tight. In his 2010 — rookie! — season, Chacin put up a line of 9-11/3.28/1.27/138 in 137 1/3 IP. Ah, yes, the magical more strikeouts than inning thing-a-ma-boob. Sign me up for Chacin in every league. The days of Rockies pitchers looking like they stayed in a Super 8 the night before are over. So what can we expect of Jhoulys Chacin for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?
You ready to spit your rice pudding out of your mouth? Chacin can be a 2010 Ubaldo in 2011. In 60 1/3 IP after the All-Star break, he had a 2.24 ERA. The batting average against him was .218. Yeah, that’s a small sample size. In the entire year, he only had one month over a 4.00 ERA. It was July. That month he had a 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 IP. He had one bad month. The 15 2/3 IP in July is really the small sample size that is hurting all his other numbers. And even in that one bad month, he had a 10.74 K/9. He also was hit by bad luck in July, and his xFIP was 3.86. Take July out of the picture, Chacin’s ERA is 2.88 in 121 2/3 IP. No foolin’. That’s pretty good doode. Oh, and he was in the bullpen in July where he obviously wasn’t comfortable. He’s really a starter. Chacin will probably cost you a last round pick or only a few dollars to keep. At those prices, I like him a lot. Sorry, if this is blowing the cover off one of your hidden gems; you’re so Anne Frank.
You’d think July would work for Jhoulys.
There’s a new post in forums that includes a review of a FanGraphs post that I think throws significant weight behind my Risky Hitters posts:
http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=13741
did grey just announce his pitching crush of the year in November? lol
I’m a liking what i’m a seeing…. @simply fred: fred you taking chacin in the 6th now? haha
@Tony: He was already on my list, and likely yours as well. Grey says you’re leaving him to me in that last round. You know that #6 slot is reserved for Stewart!
@Grey: What’s the WHIP to go with that 2.88 ERA? What can we expect?
(Anything to drive down the price with Tony will help.)
How high up should he be drafted before it is high enough, like that one Damn Yankees song? In a 12 team mixed league, is taking him before the 15th round crazy, like that one Aerosmith song? If I draft him, say, in the 13th round, will that be bringin’ on the heartbreak, like that one Def Lep-
I’m sorry.
@simply fred: ha… im beginning to think in our RCL the fan favorites like stewart get so overvalued they’re not worth drafting… he’s all your fred.
I also haven’t actually done alot of research into next year yet. So I like chacin, but I didn’t know his #’s were that good. Good to know. I’m so involved with a 20 team basketball league I just read my razzball each day and move on….
If either of the 2 girl readers of Razzball are looking for some extra work, Coco Crisp is hiring:
http://backporch.fanhouse.com/2010/11/17/coco-crisp-takes-to-craigslist-to-find-female-personal-assistant/
How does he compare to Bumgarner, Hellickson and Morrow?
I’ve got YoLease at $15 in my 12-team, NL-only, 4×4. Even as a sleeper, that’s too expensive, isn’t it? He’s got to go back in the pool, right?
yes, that’s too much — especially since you wouldn’t even to be able to take advantage of his strikeouts. (i’m assuming, since it’s 4×4)
@SwaggerJackers: a big difference I see between chacin and those guys is the NAME. Everyone knows Bum because of the playoffs, hellickson because he’s in the AL east and in that deep rays pitching rotation and morrow because he had what 17 k’s in one game this past year? Chacin is going to be semi-under-the-radar and probably cheaper….
Chacin or Delmon Young in a keeper league where they cost the same, and I’d be able to keep the guy through 2014? League is 12 team H2H, with extra offensive categories like OPS and extra base hits, and pitching categories like K/BB and K/9.
“South Korea win is big for Choo – South Korea defeated Taiwan 9-3 in the gold medal finals of the Asian Games on Friday. Among others, the South Korea club was lead by Shin-Soo Choo, who drove in two runs, according to the Korea Herald.
This is huge news for Choo and the Indians. By winning the gold medal, Choo and his teammates will now likely be exempt from mandatory military service, and the Indians are now much more likely to talk to the outfielder about a long-term contract.”
@simply fred: you’d have a little motivation to play/WIN if it meant you didn’t have to enlist huh! wow…. wld.
i like choo, the Korean Bobby Abreu
@ Grey :
it has not gone unnoticed that you’ve grown a bit more
saber-tooth-metrically inclined … xFIP ?
do you want to explain yourself ??
@DrEasy: It would be anagrammatically correct.
@simply fred: Cool, will check it out.
@ChrisV82: Think 12th round is earliest, but need to see where he’s drafted.
@peter: Ha!
@SwaggerJackers: He’s better, better, even.
@T.J.: It is too expensive.
@simply fred: That’s interesting, thanks for the heads up!
@big o: I try and service both sides. There’s ERA in that post too if that’s what you like.
Nice to see the love for Chacin. I’m pleased to have him as a keeper in my 12-team league.
I’d be interested to see a 2011 preview piece on Edinson Volquez. I don’t know what to project for him next year: will he be Fausto Carmona or will he be the pre-Tommy John Volquez?
@Fanatic: He’s getting his own post in December.
Love this post! Got him sitting on my roster as a two year keeper for $1. Granted it’s a 4×4 league but none-the-less I am a happy camper!
How does Marcum compare to Yoooooooooooo-lease? I suggest you give his stats a gander and give him a gd ‘ol Grey Crush for 2011. If he wasn’t sitting in the AL East(which there is a chance he might not) he’d get one.
@Grey:
not that i’ve met either one of them ,
but i’m guessing that your mom is very proud of how smart you are ,
and you’re dad would like to see you do something
like grow a nice tomato , or one of those burp-less cucumbers .
that’s how life would play out for you if you were our son .
@simply fred: You forgot to mention a KEY point in that story:
“The 28-year-old hit .571 (8 for 14) with three homers, six walks, eight runs and 11 RBI during the tournament.”
Choo was motivated!
@potus: Nice re: Chacin — Marcum’s going to get his own post too. He’ll be in the list of guys I’m going crazy over.
@big o: You never know, you might’ve met them. Who doesn’t want their son to grow a ‘burp-less cucumber?’
@Grey:
Wow, that’s quite some backing for Chacin, saying that he’s better than Hellickson. Is that based on pure skill, or are you taking their division into account?
@Eddy: For 2011… I don’t mean in the broader, whole career sense. Hellickson’s still too green for me for 2011.
@Grey:
are you going to have a post on this bryce harper kid ?
*heads up ==> the AFL championship game is saturday !*
as a member of the “taxi” squad , harper is only allowed to play
on wednesdays and saturdays .
from what i’ve heard , the jury is still out on whether this 17 year old
kid will become an impact player / (or when) ,
but no one is questioning his heart and his hustle .
his heroes were pete rose and george brett … hard-nose ballplayers .
as a little leaguer , he used to get thrown out of games because he always
tried to take out the 2nd baseman when sliding into the bag .
@big o: Speaking of juries… Yup. I mean, Bryce Harper might get his own post. I’m on the fence right now with him. He’s super young.
@Grey: Juries … date? How’d it go?
@Stephen: She came over at 10pm last night, so I’d say it went well.
@Grey: Sounds like the constitution finally provided some true civic duty.
@Stephen: Ha! She was proven guilty of liking the mustache.
@Grey: As she goes the way of so many before. Still, don’t forget these wise words:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veAIHDGghP4
@Steve: Skinner knows all too well.
@Grey: You’ll still be able to hang with the boys though, right?
@Steve: Yeah, no problems there. She works a lot. (As PApnpdpy Rpipcphptpepr’s nanny. Ha! Remove P’s to avoid Googling.)
@Steve: She did start the date at 10pm. I think we’ll be ok, at least for now.
@Grey: Well…… OK then.
Those kids need to start going to bed earlier (emoticon).
@Steve: Yeah, no need to stay up to watch daddy on TV.
@Grey: Any southern hemisphere connections with this one?
To speak to the subject of the post (shocker!), I could keep Yo-Lease next year for a fiver. But I also have plenty of good bats so he may end up going back, which would be a shame. Plenty of time for that yet, though.
@Steve: Southern hemisphere? It was that time of the month– Oh! No, no connections that I know of. Yeah, Chacin at $5 isn’t bad, but if you have bats, probably have to go with them first.
Is Morneau a bigger injury risk than Kendy Morales for next year?
@Al Swedgin: Nice username… Nah, he’s not a bigger injury risk.
@Al Swedgin: i dont know if i’d want either, if i could go another way i’d do that…. personally i think morneua is an injury risk, back, head, vagina….. then with kendry who knows how that leg is going to be? We’ll see in the spring i guess….
I think 1B is too deep to mess with some of these guys.
Hey Grey,
Should have sent this before Nov. 18 (“have sex with a guy with a mustache day”) passed, but maybe it’s not too late:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyWKlxNAh30
@royce!: Oh, man, that’s ridiculous.
@peter: Actually, we are up to three. My wife is now starting to read Razzball, and will compete in the RCL. Have to check up with Grey/Rudy, but this could be the first husband wife team. And she is pretty good. I beat her two years ago in the Yahoo HwH finals. It wasn’t a Win/Win situation, that’s for sure. Spent a great bit of time on the couch.
@Grey: Great article. I will try to see if I can trade for Chacin in my keeper league before the owner realizes that he could be the next Ubaldo. Question – what is the injury risk for Brian Robersts. Until last season he was relatively healthy, and didn’t play that badly when he played, albeit for 59 games.
@simply fred: Great news about Choo; as you know, I heart Choo Choo. I wonder if the US had this same incentive, would we see Manny, HanRam, and some others play with a bit more focus. As for Chacin – you never would draft a pitcher before the 12th round, and Jhoulys will be gonzo by then.
@Paulie Allnuts: I think Roberts could actually be undervalued next year. See no reason why he can’t be productive if he’s healthy in the spring.
end the moratorium .
@Grey:
did you catch the afl championship game ?
@big o: Damn, totally forgot about the game.
@Grey:
reports indicate that the nats are building quite a farm system
@big o: What reports are these? Said during the game?
@Grey:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101120&content_id=16167630&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
the kid i wanted to see was this cole kimball .
@Grey:
guess i’m just a sucker for these born and raised closers .
it all started with huston street , a while back , i guess .
@big o and Grey: Any clown who can get three outs in the ninth works for me
Is it Thanksgiving weekend there?
@Steve:
next weekend
Of course. I knew that. Ahead of myself.
AFL MVP: (2B/CF) Dustin Ackley – Seattle.
over/under is set at one (1) for
the number of teeth bryce harper loses
before he appears in his 1st mlb game .
ties lose .
@big o: Gotcha…
@big o: re: Harper’s teeth — Ha! I’ll go 2 to make it interesting.
All this brouhaha over Jeter’s contract made me wonder how many years in his last contract that he’s performed higher than his pay- I count 2- 2006 and 2009 (according to fangraphs’ metrics). And 4 of the last 8 seasons he’s been worth less than 15 million, the salary he’s currently being offered (his average value has been around 16 mil per season, though).
Anyhow, I know that all of the stuff in the media is just posturing in order to get more $ out of the Yankees, who clearly are going to be the top bidders (no other team in their right mind (therefore, not the Marlins or Royals) would pay 3 years, 45 mil for Jeter)). But it seems to me that the argument regarding his contribution being much more than stats relies heavily on the fact that he has performed somewhat close to how much he’s actually been paid, and the Yankees never traded him.
But I’m probably preaching to the choir.
Ackley a 2B sleeper, or are the M’s gonna sleep on him?
@Grey: @Stephen: Ackley’s line in the minors last year not that impressive? In 134 GP: 79/7/51/.267/10. Even if he does break camp, should we expect that much (in Seattle)?
sushi run …. shrimp tempura roll , salmon , tuna , yellow-tail ,
and , of course , urchin .
this time the chef served california urchin , perfectly chilled .
found it to be less sharp and a bit more sweet than urchin from maine .
@simply fred: Due to his home ballpark, his rookie year should be something along the lines of Chris Coghlan’s rookie year or an off year from Dustin Pedoria. I would put something along this: .290/.350/.415 with 10 hr and 15 steals. That is being optimistic.
@royce!: I think Jeter’s one of those players that will get a contract for reasons other than performance. I just can’t believe the Yankees will let him go anywhere else.
Agree with Fred and Stephen on Ackley. I can’t find anything that impressive about him for his first year in the majors. 10/15 even seems too optimistic.
@big o: Mmm… That sounds wonderful. Thinking I might hit up a sushi bar for dinner tonight. The jury dity girl is allergic to fish. Big negative.
@Grey: It’s over.
Elsewhere, am I going soft in my old age, or does Jeter get a lot of misdirected hate? He just does what he does (generally pretty well) – isn’t it the commentators, award-givers and analysts that relentlessly and unquestioningly big-up him that should really be the targets of scorn?
Should he have got the GG? No – but it’s not his fault that he did.
Also – it’s the 22nd here of course. Does the day weigh heavily on your mind, or just ancient history by now?
@Steve: I think when you have it as good as Jeter in so many ways, there’s the natural inclination to hate. I don’t hate him; just don’t think he’s that great for fantasy compared to his ADP. The 22nd? What’s that?
@Grey: Dallas.
@Steve: Way before my time. Don’t think anyone really thinks about it unless they were alive then.
@Grey: @Steve: Re: Jeter’s contract and the media’s scorn- I have to say that it’s a backlash against all things Yankee, and that lends credence to the argument that Jeter embodies Yankeeness. (Also, him receiving a GG provides fuel to the fire, because he shouldn’t have received it). But his embodying Yankeeness is based on him performing well, for which he has been handsomely rewarded. I know the Yankees won’t let him play elsewhere, but I also don’t think there are any other bidders that would offer him anywhere near 45 million for 3 years. So at this point the Yankees and Jeter seem to be arguing over how much $ his being a Yankee is worth- not how much $ his play is worth, but how much money it is worth to the Yankees as a franchise it is worth for him to retire as a Yankee. So it makes me personally cynical and bitter for someone to ask an employer to be remunerated for “loyalty.”
Then again, I don’t know how much keeping Jeter is worth to the Yankees (ie, not how well he plays and therefore contributes offensively and defensively, but how much more $ is generated simply by his presence in a Yankee uniform). I have no idea how they can estimate such numbers.
Ultimately, I hope they offer him 100 million for 5 years. I have no problem with a team I don’t root for overpaying for a player.
I think that Ryan Howard’s contract presents an interesting contrast. By all accounts, the Phillies will overpay Howard. But Howard was also held back in the minors until 2004 because he was blocked at 1B by Thome. I like to think that the extra dough to Howard is an attempt to correct this. Also, I have no problem with a team I don’t root for overpaying for a player.
Very important to both contracts surely will be that neither are allergic to fish, because, damn!, that’s terrible!
@Grey: Yeah. Guess I’ve read too much James Elroy (emoticon).
The single-shooter theory is so boring.
@Steve: re: Dallas, I just assumed you were talking about the Cowboys! So, no, I think like Grey said, you had to be alive then for the date to have any weight. That said, I’ve always been amazed at how affected people who were still alive at the time still are. I don’t know if people really, really loved Kennedy, or if it is just that they really, really loved him after he was shot (kinda like everyone seemed down with the US/Bush after 9/11). If it’s the former, it makes me kinda bummed, because I don’t think that sort of admiration for politicians is possible anymore.
@royce!: Haven’t heard it put this well, “So at this point the Yankees and Jeter seem to be arguing over how much $ his being a Yankee is worth- not how much $ his play is worth, but how much money it is worth to the Yankees as a franchise it is worth for him to retire as a Yankee.” But I also don’t read much on Jeter. That’s exactly it in a nutshell. The Yankees will pay him until he retires just because that’s what is expected. Frankly, I’m fine with it because players get stupid money for career years — hey, Beltre! — but don’t get paid for loyalty. So it’s cool, in my book. I’d love for players to stay on the same team for longer, helps build cohesion and fan loyalty which I think is good for the game, which I’m all for.
@Steve: I really love, love, love JFK by Oliver Stone. Damn, he used to make great movies. Stupid coke.
@Grey: Despite the fish-allergy thing, aren’t you glad you had jury duty? They should make that argument when they send jury notices- “a great way to meet single ladies (and gentlemen)!”
@royce!: Yeah, she’s actually turned into a cool girl so far. We’ll see, it’s still early and I don’t want to build her up too much. She’s a sleeper, for sure.
@royce!: @Grey: Grey beat me to it, but yeah, you pretty much nailed it there. There’ll be a lot of posturing, but no doubt they’ll reach an agreement in the end.
I like the idea of players being with a team longer too. Can’t blame a guy for taking the money, but if I’m Jeter, playing for any other team is unthinkable.
@Steve: Something else that puzzles me. Players who take huge money to play on a terrible team. Well, I know why they do it but you know what I mean.
At the level they’re being paid, wouldn’t you take a little less and play for a better team?
Not that I can think of a specific example but, again, you know what I mean.
Hopefully.
@Steve: Yeah, I know what you mean. Between, say, $35 million and $30 million, does it matter?
i think that the pirates ought to take all of their revenue sharing money
and give it to jeter .
i’d love to see him in that yellow throw-back uniform , and to see him
play-out his remaining years as a pirate … just to emphasize the absurdity
of professional player contracts .
the pirates aren’t going anywhere , anyway .
most of us will work a life-time (if we’re lucky) and barely make one million.
after playing at sports , for about 5-10 million/year , for 3 or 4 years ,
i like to see just ONE humanitarian step forward and say that they would
remain with their club until their playing days are over … for NO pay … and have the clubs match those fore-gone dollars … and put that money
to good use .
you greedy bazztardz can ALL kiss my azz .
@big o:
That last suggestion is golden.
@Grey:
Is it too early to draft Harper in 2011 in a keeper where we’d keep him for three years? (so I’d have him for ’11,’12, and ’13)
@big o: Hehe
@Eddy: I wouldn’t bother with him there.
@Steve: @Grey: Grey makes a good point- what is the difference between 30 and 35 million dollars? Obviously, it’s 5 million dollars, which, I assume, to you and I is an insane amount of money. But money diminishes in utility, that is, 5 million isn’t as important on top of 30 million as it is on top of zero million. I try to remind myself of this every time I think that it’s clear that the top bidder (ie, NYY) will sign whatever free agent they’re after. And then everyone signs with the Yankees, and I go back to first principles.
@royce!: Well, not everyone signs with the Yankees
To pull an example of what I was talking about, out of my ass, take Adam Dunn (ouch!).
I assume he must have had a number of teams to choose from before he signed his current deal. Why would you go for the worst-performing team, if not for the money?
Like I said, can’t blame a guy for wanting to maximise his value. But isn’t it ultimately more satisfying to perhaps take a little less (still more money than you and I could ever dream of, though) and go somewhere your contribution might actually mean something?
Maybe I’m being naive. Or re: Dunn I could just be completely ill-informed!
@Steve: Quit pulling donkeys out your ass! Seriously, that aint right.
@royce!: I knew that would be a crowd pleaser.
But you know what I mean, right?
@Steve: Absolutely. But I also think that it’s rare that a player is faced with a decision between signing with the top bidder and signing with the team most likely to make the playoffs. Jeter’s situation differs as well, and is truly exceptional, so maybe I (and a shizz load of others) have spent way too much time thinking about something that is unlikely to recur very often.
@royce!: @Steve: To be the devil’s advocate, we’re probably lucky people take more money to go to smaller market teams, otherwise the Yankees wouldn’t have to spend money and they would get all the stars.
Dunn is supposedly going to sign with the Tigers. What kind of effect might this have on his fantasy value?
@big o: M. Young in R4?
@simply fred:
if you’ve been reading these pages , you know who my
3rd baseman is going to be for 2011 .
@big o: Andrus in th 5th?
@simply fred:
in a keeper league , with no restrictions , if that’s what it took to
ensure a quality / young ss …. yep , andrus in the 5th .
@simply fred:
though in my keeper , i’m looking for him in the 6th or 7th .
@big o: Surely someone will be keeping him?
Or is this a different keeper?
# # 1 DrEasy Says:
November 19th, 2010 at 12:23 am Reply to this comment
You’d think July would work for Jhoulys.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL