http://www.espnflorida.com/jeremy-hellickson-2012-tampa-bay-rays-babip-infield-flyball/

http://mobile.draysbay.com/2012/2/29/2834180/is-jeremy-hellicksons-babip-sustainable#comments

There is another one with Friedman quotes in it, can’t find it though.

I agree that Starlin is a great choice, and he’s right next to Andrus in my rankings. Choosing between them seems to me to be a matter of team construction. If you’re in need of stolen bases, then Andrus seems to be the better choice. If you need BA, then Starlin.

I understand the argument for Starlin, but I’m less-enamored with the argument regarding Asdrubal or Rollins. They’re actually 6th and 8th in my own projections (Andrus and Starlin are 4th and 5th), so I don’t hate them, but Asdrubal’s lack of steals and Rollins advanced age and greater injury risk cool my ardor for them. If I missed on getting Starlin or Elvis, I’d probably wait to take Aybar, personally.

I understand that getting value is the name of the game, but avoiding disaster is also a part of the game. In your scenario, where you skipped Elvis in order to take Aybar, and then Aybar returned you a $0 roto dollar contribution, yes, you’re only out 5 roto dollars, but it’s not like good shortstops grow on trees. Good luck on finding a competent replacement to fill that gaping hole. Now I don’t believe that Aybar *will* be a disaster at all, but there are things other than finding those “black swans”, as Oaktown Steve talks about. Often, it’s enough if your guy simply returns in value what you paid for him. Avoiding disasters for your early round picks seems to be a major indicator of fantasy success, at least in my experience. You can get the values later, when you’re spending less and expecting less and you can speculate more.

So beyond Andrus himself, why not implement your valuation by taking Starlin as your SS and then Aybar as your MI? Seems to me the best of both worlds there, eh? You get the safety of Starlin with the possibility of out-sized rewards with Aybar.

I don’t understand your point about R/PA, unless you’re in a league that uses that as a stat. Their R/PA may be similar, but if one consistently gets less total Runs per season, how can you not take that into account? 20 Runs difference is 20 Runs difference. It could be a roto point or two in that category! I don’t see how you can dismiss that?

Anyways, great discussion (and maybe we can continue it in the forums?)! I probably have Grey-itis in that I undervalue BA a bit, which is probably why I rank Andrus slightly ahead of Starlin. That may be a weakness in my approach and I’m always open for examining my own biases and correcting them where appropriate. We all want to win, after all!

Just to clarify–I agree with some of what you are saying, but I don’t think this example applies. If I’m going to target a lower risk asset at shortstop, even if the “disaster” potential is slightly higher, I’d much rather look at someone like Starlin Castro, who provides much better balance, which benefits roster construction, and who provides positive stability in a much more difficult category to find it in (AVG). I’d also rather go with Jimmy Rollins or Asdrubal Cabrera for similar reasons along with lower cost, and that’s not even expecting any more than .260-15-25 from Rollins or .275-15-15 from the Drubal. Even at those projections, they come much closer to justifying their costs and don’t have all that much risk.

And just a note on the Runs issue–this isn’t a Runs issue, its a plate appearances issue. Make what you will of that, but their projected R/PA is quite similar.

But of course there are concerns with him. Can he actually play MLB-quality ball for a season? Can he handle the rigors of a full season? Can he get on base enough to put himself in position to get those 40+ steals?

All these questions caused me to jump at a trade offer I received from another owner soon after the draft: he gave me Alexei Ramirez and Doug Fister for Gordon. Done and done! I was already overbought in Steals, so I traded excess in exchange for a little more security. Alexei may be blah-tastic, but he’s consistent in a way that Gordon has yet to establish. I’ll take Door #1, thank you!

Obviously Aybar’s stat line is closer to Andrus’ because they’re similar players whereas Gordon’s contribution is nearly all from steals, but you could make the case that their overall contributions to your team’s bottom line are similar. So yes, I can see someone saying “I can draft Aybar or Gordon 5 or 6 rounds later than Andrus and get the same stats! Brilliant!”

To which I say “Yes, but” (and that “but(t)” is the size of a Kim K X-ray). And the reason I say “Yes, but” is this: consistency and proven MLB performance. Could Aybar come close enough to Andrus’ totals to make him the value pick of the century? Yes, but are you willing to bet your fantasy fate on that? Aybar had a career year last year, in many ways. What are the odds he repeats that? Like I said, I have him highly-rated and expect a good stat line, but I could also see him reverting to a 5/20 guy.

And even if he equals his 2011 performance, he still comes up 20 to 30 Runs short of Andrus’ Runs total and, likely, 5 to 10 stolen bases short of Andrus’ SBs. That may not seem like much, but it all adds up. I’m not saying Andrus over Aybar is the difference in winning a championship, but I will say that Andrus is valued and picked where he is for what I see as legitimate reasons. The profit potential of Aybar is much greater than Andrus, for sure, but I also think the “disaster” potential of Andrus is much less than Aybar, thus the premium price that is to be paid for Elvis (and you basically said this, when you said that Andrus was “low risk, but very low reward”).

For Gordon, obviously his greatest drawback is he’s not MLB-proven, so the disaster potential is even greater than Aybar. Plus there’s the injury concerns, which I think are somewhat legitimate.

It’s all a balancing act though… perhaps that 3rd/4th round pick on Andrus could be better spent somewhere else (for the record, I took him in the 5th round in my recent RCL draft, but I think he’ll go earlier in other leagues)? Perhaps it is a better strategy to maximize potential value rather than to try to maximize “safety” through supposedly “safe” picks. But isn’t that what makes fantasy baseball just the best game in town? The different strategies, the different valuations, then the 162 game turn-of-the-mill which tells us who was right, who was wrong and how amazing Grey and his prognosticating mustache are? We all have our different methods and madness… in 6 months time, we’ll also have our answers.

Plus there’s the fact that I picked the guys I did because I believe either that they will beat their projections or that they’re surer bets to meet their projections than the players I bypassed. ESPN obviously doesn’t reflect that in their projections (fools!).

If you watched Survivor, mention it in your next blurb or in the comments; we need to talk.

Chase Utley
Michael Young
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Rickie Weeks

He would cost me a 24th round pick in a 24 pick league to keep.

question–

there are so many questions regarding third base this year – wright, zimmerman, a-rod, youk, beltre, panda, etc. after miggy/bautista/longo are off the board, why not just wait until a few of these other guys are snatched up and see if you can get a value pick, like sandoval or youk in the 7th/8th? do you really want to spend a 2nd/3rd round pick on a wright/zim/beltre type that might get injured or underperform (again)? i’d much rather play it safe with an OF or even SP than one of these guys.