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We all have fears, no matter who you are, no matter what you’ve been through, you’re scared of something. It might be clowns, maybe it’s spiders, perhaps it’s being strapped to a chair Clockwork Orange style, and forced to watch a Ben Stiller movie marathon. Totally a plausible scenario, might I add. While not quite as frightening as any of the aforementioned options, I must admit, I have developed a new fear. And no it’s not the fear of Grey mistaking me for Giancarlo, and having to have him surgically removed from my toilet leg. No, that ain’t it, though I am frightened by that thought. It’s far more topical, and far less titillating. It’s the fear of covering a bad start in my weekly pitching profiles. What fate could be worse than writing up an absolute slugfest? What if the pitcher I pick is chased in less than 3 innings? What if he trips and falls jumping imaginary lines? Shizz happens, right? So to prevent this, I decided to pick out three games, record them, and use the start I like best. In my whitewashed, pre-fab world of pitching, there are no bad starts, only starters I poorly ranked.  So who did I go with? Who was this lucky recipient of my barely readable prose? Well, it just so happens, I decided to go ying to last week’s yang, and cover another young AL East starter, facing the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball. That’s right, this week’s Pitcher Profile is on Yankees righty Luis Severino. Not a bad time to dive into the young flamethrower as he’s hotter than fish grease.

 

Scouting Report: Tonight we’re looking at one of the top breakout starters of April. Severino was brilliant going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 11.00 K/9, and a 1.33 Bb/9 over 27 innings. He relies heavily on two pitches, his high 90’s fastball, that can touch 100, and his hard slide piece. Occasionally he’ll mix in his change, but he’s thrown it less this year, and to better results. He’s predominantly a groundball pitcher, but does get a fair amount of infield flys, and popups off his fastball. Now that Noah Syndergaard is on the shelf for three months, Severino holds the distinction of the highest average fastball velocity in the majors, and he uses it to his advantage. Tonight he faces a tough Cubs lineup on a cold night in early May, opposing veteran starter Jon Lester. Let’s get into the game.

First Inning

Luis starts out working Schwarber away on three straight fastballs, to go down 3-0. The righty then battles back with two nice fastballs in the strike zone to even the count, before putting away the big man with a change, high and on the outside of the zone.

Here comes Kris Bryant, and within an instant, there goes Kris Bryant. As the Severino strikes out the reigning NL MVP on three pitches, going fastball, slider, and a nasty slider in the dirt for a swinging strike.

Next up is the struggling Anthony Rizzo, 2 for his last 31. Let’s make that 2 for his last 32, as in typical struggling player fashion, he swings at the first pitch, and grounds out to Matt Holiday at first. 3 up and 3 down for Luis, as he gets through Schwarber, Bryant, and Rizzo on 12 pitches.

First Inning: 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 2 K’s

Second Inning

The second inning starts the way the first inning ends. One pitch, one swing, and one out, as Zobrist hits a flyball to centerfield. Next up is Addison Russell, and the young shortstop watches the first pitch pass by for a strike at 99 MPH, before missing on a slider over the plate for strike two. Russell then swings at the third pitch he sees, and grounds out to Didi at short. Two outs, and Jon Jay steps into the batter box; after going down 2-0, Severino battles back, and runs the count full, before retiring Jay on a 100 MPH fastball. Jay  hacks at the pitch bouncing one back to the pitcher, who gingerly tosses it to first for the third out. Another efficient inning for Luis, as he sits down all three Cubs on 12 pitches.

Second Inning: 0 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, 0 K’s

Third Inning

The third frame starts off with a Willson Contreras groundout on a slider. So far Severino has gotten tons of groundball outs, particularly from his slider. It’s easy to see that it’s definitely the pitch driving his high-40’s groundball rate, and possibly a fair amount of his early season success. After a loud flyout by Jon Lester to left, up steps Javier Baez. An 8 pitch battle ensues, where Baez battles balls all over the zone to stay alive, including one he fouls off his foot that takes him to the ground. After a brief pause, and a check in with the trainers, Baez gets back up,  and looks ready to go. On the next pitch he takes full advantage of a hanging slider over the middle inner-half, as Baez punishes Severino’s offering with the quickness, for a homer to left. That ball didn’t fool anyone, well, anyone but Aaron Hicks.

Next up is the top of the order, let’s see what happens the second time through this Cubs lineup. Severino jumps out to a 1-2 count on Schwarber, before the big man pokes a double to left field over the still confused Aaron Hicks’ head. Couple things on this play, first, Severino made a nice pitch, 99 right on the bottom corner of the zone. Second, Schwarber’s power is nuts. He literally reached out, and poked this ball to the warning track in left. He hit it the way guys poke singles to the opposite field. Good piece of hitting by Schwarber, and here comes Kris Bryant with a runner in scoring position. Bryant and Severino battle a bit, with the righty running the count full, before putting Bryant away on a slider that drops out of the zone. That put away pitch to Bryant was bookends of the way the first inning ended. The frame is over, and Luis is jacked up as he’s headed toward the dugout.

Severino has had great command of all three of his pitches tonight. For the most part, he’s been working low and on the outside part of the plate, but really he’s made pitches all over the zone tonight.

Third Inning: 2 hits, 0 walks, 1 run, 1 K

Fourth Inning

Up steps the struggling Anthony Rizzo, who gets ahead of Severino 2-1 before fouling off a high fastball. With a perfect pitch to hit down Main Street, Rizzo instead watches strike three. Damn, H to the Rizzo is freaking awful at the moment. Really discouraging at bat from the Cubs cleanup hitter. It’s Ben Zobrist’s turn, and the next at bat is a frustrating one, as Severino strikes out the veteran on a low slider, but it bounces past Austin Romine for a wild pitch. So Zobrist takes first. Following a stroke of bad luck, Luis runs the count full on the next batter, Addison Russell, before walking him on the 7th pitch of the at bat. Ugh, bit of a jam for Severino with runners at first and second, and one out. Fear not Severino loyalists, as up steps Jon Jay. The Federalist promptly swings at the first pitch, and nearly grounds into a double play. The Yankees however, have to settle for a fielders choice at second, two outs. Here comes Willson Contreras, the catcher swings at strike one, on a nasty 89 MPH slider that drops out of the zone. The next pitch Severino goes right back to the slider, and Contreras hacks this one back to the pitcher. Severino makes a nice stab on the rising ball, and tosses to first for the third out. Severino has gotten out of jams in consecutive innings, and is still holding the Cubs to a single run.

Fourth Inning: 0 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, 2 K’s

Fifth Inning

Nothing like the pitcher leading off the inning, as Severino goes right at Lester. Striking his colleague out on four pitches, putting him away on a slider middle-in that the pitcher halfheartedly hacks at.

Now it’s Javier Baez, and Severino is looking for revenge. As it was the second baseman who took Severino deep his last time up. Luis runs the count full on Baez, working exclusively low in the zone with fastballs and sliders, before jamming in some high heat at 99, for a swinging third strike.

The top of the order is here for a third time through, as Schwarber steps up. After getting down 0-1, Joe Buck’s Novio hammers a changeup over the middle of the plate for a double. Kris Bryant steps up again with Schwarber in scoring position. This time the MVP swings at a first pitch slider, and grounds out to Didi at short to end the inning. Another strong inning from Severino; he’s at 83 pitches and should be coming out for the 6th, having been the Yankees last out in the 5th.

Fifth Inning: 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 runs, 2 K’s

Sixth Inning

Anthony Rizzo leads off the 6th, and immediately strikes out a three pitches. Including a strike three slider that was way low, and outside. Severino has done a nice job of setting hitters up with fastballs low in the zone tonight, before planting the wipeout slider on them. After getting ahead of Ben Zobrist, Luis leaves one over the outside part of the plate, and the utility man goes the other way pushing a single to left. With the runner at first, Addison Russell is steps up next. The shortstop falls behind 1-2, before driving a slider into the ground on the right side to Didi. The Yankees fields it cleanly, and the Bombers turn two to end the inning. Severino is at 95 pitches through 6, will they bring him out for the 7th?

Sixth Inning: 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 runs, 1 K

Seventh Inning

Here comes Severino out for the 7th, the Yanks took the lead at the top half of the inning, and he’s now in line for the win. Permitted he, and the bullpen, hold it together. The righty begins the 7th up 2-2 on Jon Jay, who fouls off two straight pitches before hitting a slider for a hard groundball to Didi. The Notorious scoops the ball, and throws to Holiday for the first out of the inning. Tyler Clippard is up in the pen, I wonder if Willson Contreras will be the last batter Severino sees? Luis starts off with a meatball, middle low on a 98 MPH fastball. Nice to see Severino is maintaining that velocity late into the start. Contreras battles off three consecutive pitches in a 2-2 count, before watching another pitch, this time a slider down Main Street, for strike three.

Severino really got away with one there, as that’s two out of three strikes that he watched. Up steps pinch hitter Tommy La Stella who replaces Jon Lester’s spot in the lineup. Now at 109 pitches, I imagine this is Severino’s final batter. Doesn’t matter, he makes quick work of La Stella, getting a groundball to the right side for the final out of the inning. Quite a day for Severino, who continues his breakout first half.

Seventh Inning: 0 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, 1 K

Final Line: 7 innings, 111 pitches (75 for strikes), 1 ER, 1 HR, 4 hits, 1 walk, 9 K’s, Gamescore: 72

Summary: Severino’s fastball command was on point tonight, and due to this all of his sequencing with the slider and change fall in line off of that pitch. He was consistently in the 97-100 MPH range on his heat, even late into tonight’s start. His slider was an effective out pitch to both righties and lefties, working low or out of the zone in two strike counts. In fact, the slider was the driving factor behind 18 of Severino’s 21 outs coming by either groundball or the strikeout. His highly debated changeup was effective when used tonight. You can count me amongst the camp that believes it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the young righty used the pitch a little more frequently. In closing it’s easy to see why Severino’s results have improved so far this season, with improved fastball command, better usage of his offspeed pitches, and the ability to pound the zone with all three offerings to generate whiffs, and weak groundball contact. Unfortunately for Severino, and his owners, Aroldis Chapman blew this game in the 9th, and the Yanks needed extra innings to complete the sweep of the world champs.
Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Chris Sale, BOS
2 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
3 Max Scherzer, WAS
4 Yu Darvish, TEX
5 Jacob deGrom, NYM
6 Jake Arrieta, CHC
7 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
8 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
9 Johnny Cueto, SF
10 Chris Archer, TB
11 Lance McCullers, HOU
12 Zack Greinke, ARI
13 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
14 Gerrit Cole, PIT
15 Michael Pineda, NYY
16 Danny Salazar, CLE
17 Carlos Martinez, STL
18 Jon Lester, CHC
19 Michael Fulmer, DET
20 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
21 Corey Kluber, CLE
22 James Paxton, SEA
23 Danny Duffy, KC
24 Robbie Ray, ARI 
25 Justin Verlander, DET
26 Ivan Nova, PIT
27 Rick Porcello, BOS
28 Marco Estrada, TOR
29 Luis Severino, NYY 
30 Dylan Bundy, BAL
31 Kenta Maeda, LAD
32 Jason Vargas, KC
33 Julio Teheran, ATL
34 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
35 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
36 David Price, BOS
37 Marcus Stroman, TOR
38 Julio Urias, LAD
39 Jeff Samardzija, SF
40 Madison Bumgarner, SF
41 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
42 Jose Quintana, CHW
43 Michael Wacha, STL
44 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
45 Charlie Morton, HOU
46 Taijuan Walker, ARI
47 Lance Lynn, STL 
48 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
49 Tanner Roark, WAS
50 Andrew Triggs, OAK
51 Brandon McCarthy, LAD
52 John Lackey, CHC
53 Sean Manaea, OAK
54 Jameson Taillon, PIT
55 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
56 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
57 Francisco Liriano, TOR
58 Jake Odorizzi, TB
59 Mike Foltynewicz, ATL
60 Trevor Cahill, SD
61 Jesse Hahn, OAK
62 Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
63 Amir Garrett, CIN
64 Aaron Nola, PHI
65 Felix Hernandez, SEA
66 Matt Moore, SF
67 Daniel Norris, DET
68 Drew Pomeranz, BOS
69 Wade Miley, BAL 
70 Sonny Gray, OAK
71 Nathan Karns, TB
72 Mike Leake, STL
73 Patrick Corbin, ARI
74 Kendall Graveman, OAK
75 Chase Anderson, MIL
76 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
77 Ervin Santana, MIN
78 J.C. Ramirez, LAA
79 Derek Holland, CWS 
80 Matt Harvey, NYM
81 Alex Cobb, TB
82 Carlos Rodon, CHW
83 Jaime Garcia, ATL
84 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
85 Trevor Bauer, CLE
86 Blake Snell, TB
87 Antonio Senzatela, COL
88 Dan Straily, MIA
89 Luis Perdomo, SD
90 Chad Kuhl, PIT
91 Kyle Freeland, COL
92 Scott Feldman, CIN
93 Ariel Miranda, SEA
94 Matt Andriese, TB
95 Joe Musgrove, HOU
96 Adam Wainwright, STL
97 Matt Garza, MIL
98 Matt Boyd, DET
99 Zack Wheeler, NYM
100 Jharel Cotton, OAK

Coming Up: Josh Hader, MIL, Jose Berrios, MIN, Jacob Faria, TB, Brandon Woodruff, MIL, Jose De Leon, TB, Chad Green, NYY, Sean Newcomb, ATL, Dinelson Lamet, SD.

Dropped off: Cole Hamels, TEX, Tyler Skaggs, LAA, Kevin Gausman, BAL, Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD, Ian Kennedy, KC, Robert Gsellman, NYM, Adam Conley, MIA, Bartolo Colon, ATL.

  • Some serious movement amongst players on the list, with injuries to Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola, Cole Hamels, and James Paxton. The saddest of all is Paxton, who earned his top 10 ranking last week. He’s slated to miss three turns in the rotation.
  • With another start to evaluate, though it was not his best, I’m bumping Andrew Triggs up. With really only one bad turn out of 6 Triggs has jumped 40 spots to 50th on the list. The peripherals to date are too good to ignore, with the 12th best walk rate in baseball, and the 9th best groundball rate, Triggs is mastering his own destiny.
  • Speaking of elite groundball rates, everyone put your hands together for Kyle Freeland, owner of the highest groundball rate among starters at 64.2%. The lefty has now made three consecutive quality starts, yielding just 2 earned runs over 19.1 innings.
  • So Matt Harvey was dropped down to 80, and really should the suspension even have anything to do with it? He’s been pitching like garbage for a year now, and even his peripherals say he’s a 5+ ERA pitcher.
  • Not much movement in the top ten. Well, outside the last two spots, with Cueto and Archer jumping up, following the news of injuries to Paxton and Kluber. Huge jump by Michael Pineda, who looks like he’s made the step-forward this year. he seems to be figuring out how to limit his mistakes over the heart of the plate. He’s still homer prone, but it looks to be far more luck based than in previous years.
  • With strong outings in his last two turns, Jeff Samardzija made a big jump. He’s pitched much better than his ERA indicates, and I’m inclined to buy on Shark. Particularly if a less savvy owner, doesn’t look deeper at the numbers.
  • Do I need to apologize for my strong stance on Mike Foltynewicz? I’m still not going to give him up like I’m Rick-Rolling my  readers, but he did drop a fair amount this week from 43rd last week to 59th this week.

 

 Follow me on twitter @ralphlifshitzbb and tune into my weekly Baseball Show on Fantrax Youtube channel Tuesday’s at 9 PM EST. 

   
  1. Believer says:
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    No Cahill?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Believer: Typo, he was supposed to replace Cole Hamels who came off the list. It’s been fixed.

  2. Chris says:
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    Hello Ralph!

    Good afternoon.

    Trade question for 12 team league:
    Give: Darvish
    Get: Blackmon

    My team is:
    Realmuto, Edwin, Schoop, Arenado, Russell
    OF: Brantley, Thames, Dickerson, Bradley jr (BN)
    UTL: Carlos Santana
    SP: Darvish, Duffy, Salazar, McCullers, Jaime Garcia, Zach Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez, Daniel Norris, Manaea (DL), Nola (DL)
    RP: Giles, Osuna, Ramos

    I’m trying to get some offense since I already lost Marte, and Eaton.

    thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Chris: Make the move

  3. nelson says:
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    With Gsellman and Joe Ross both off the list, do you still like them long-term as keepers? Which do you prefer?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @nelson: At this point with Gsellman, I’m not sure. I’m really starting to think last season was a mirage. So I’d lean Joe Ross.

  4. Kip Mungjup says:
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    In your. Subjective (maybe some objective). thoughts….which one of the 70+ ranked guys do you think has the best chance to make the leap into the top 50 over the next few weeks? Many thanks from New Delhi and Kip Mungjup.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Kip Mungjup: Corbin, he’s pitching really well.

      • Kip Mungjup says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: frat Corbin? I like it. Would you burn a 10/14 claim on him and drop jon gray. Pitching is actually pretty shallow in this league (mostly 80+ guys available from your ranks) and requires 7 starts a week.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Kip Mungjup: No probably not, if it’s that shallow there must be better options.

          • Kip Mungjup says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: I’m sorry I meant the wire is shallow. Not a lot of quality arms on the wire. Someone just dropped Corbin after his Coors start (not sure why someone would make that start anyways). Was holding jon gray because I had the depth but just had Paxton and manea go down for me

            • Kip Mungjup says:
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              @Kip Mungjup: really only streamers ?available and even then people are rostering some of them

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Kip Mungjup: Yes then, I’d drop Gray for him. Manaea should be back this week

  5. dicky says:
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    thoughts on santana’s legitness?

    he was good second half of last year but has played poopy teams this year and stats arent sustainable

    Offered Judge $1 keeper and santana for my Cespedes… interesting… thoughts?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @dicky: First off take that trade, now!!!

      Okay, you’re back and honestly not good. It doesn’t look sustainable, and the Red Sox got’em good yesterday afternoon. I would suspect we see some more blowups over the next month.

      • dicky says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        wait im confused, you like it or you don’t? lol

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @dicky: I’d take Judge for Cespedes right now

  6. Stumanji says:
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    Best stream for tomorrow: Hector Santiago @CWS, Andriese vs. KC, Griffin @SD?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Stumanji: Griffin at San Diego.

      • JB2 says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: 1000% nailed this one. Is there a term for a guy who you grab on waivers and then pitches a one-time gem like that? Little gift from God.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @JB2: Thank God, I also told people to start Miranda at Philly.

      • Stumanji says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: You, sir, are a god amongst men!

  7. J-FOH says:
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    “Your weekly show” Nick and your crab army own that show and make it go round. Is there a chance we get another yelich on there?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @J-FOH: Perhaps….need to save some surprises for Tuesday night!

  8. Mo Money says:
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    McCarthy or Calhoun?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Mo Money: Kole Calhoun? I think I’ll take McCarthy at the moment.

  9. Brett says:
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    Ralph,

    Where do you see Nola when he comes back hopefully next week? Hurting to find any good SP out there.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Brett: If he comes back, and after two starts looks like he’s healthy, somewhere in the top 40.

      • Longbeachyo says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: I read somewhere that in Nola’s last start his velocity was down and then this back problem came out of nowhere and has persisted. I’m very concerned that this is a continuation of his arm injury, that he decided to not have surgery on last year, creeping up again. Heard anything like that?

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Longbeachyo: I heard the same thing which is why I’m approaching him with extreme caution.

  10. Wacha Wacha says:
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    Hey Ralph

    Which side of trade would you prefer in 10 team h2h weekly league with obp?

    Arrieta and j Ramirez for thames and Paxton

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Wacha Wacha: Thames and Paxton, its risky with the injury though.

  11. Razz snowflake says:
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    It’s nice to see you aren’t down on bundy. Everyone else in the industry seems to be. So much so that I can’t trade him.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Razz snowflake: Yeah, people are getting a little to crazy with the K rate. I suspect that will tick up a bit. I’ve watched three of his starts and he uses that cutter to drive lots of weak flyball contact. I dropped him, but to me he’s still a top 30 options. For example many bring up his xFIP not recognizing that xFIP stabilizes his HR/FB at 10.5%. This doesn’t take into account his 19%. IFFB rate. That means nearly half his flies are infield flies. As far as I know it’s hard for a flyball to leave the park if it doesn’t leave the infield.

      • Longbeachyo says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Those are interesting points, but Bundy’s SwStr% and contact% in the first month was 11% and 77.7% respectively. Over his past 19 innings pitched… 6.8% and 85.2%!!! His K-BB% has dipped from 13.9% to 1.3%!!! His favorable BABIP and LOB% numbers are not sustainable. Something is going on with him. I traded him for Haniger and a move in one league. That’s all I was able to get… I hope he’s not hurt, but the numbers along with his velocity dip are ominous.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Longbeachyo: Didnt you include his 4/26 start in both samples?

          Did you watch his last two starts vs the Red Sox and White Sox or simply pull numbers?

          • Longbeachyo says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: Guilty. I have not watched any of his starts. And yes, the two examples both had 4/26 in there. I did a quick numbers pull on fangraphs. Either way, his K’s are way down and BB’s are up and with diminished velocity, that has me concerned.

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Longbeachyo: Yeah, I dropped him in the ranks this week, the next few starts will tell a lot and I’ll rank accoridningly.

              The untold side of the K rate is his matchups. Nearly half his games are against the Red Sox, a team with a 15.9% K%. That’s the lowest in the majors by nearly 3%.

  12. Tony Montana says:
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    Tanaka ranked 13th last week, and it’s not like he tanked his last time out. What’s the reason for the big drop to 35 this week?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Tony Montana: I had 7 days to think about my rankings, and dig a little deeper. I was tasked with it last week on Thursday night. It’s not a great answer, but I think I was able to remove personal bias a little more this week. I’m admittedly a big Tanaka fan, but the K/9, Bb/9, and HR/9 are trending the wrong way.

  13. Chris says:
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    Need a pitcher and was thinking about trading for Pineda in a H2H points league. My trade bait is either A. Rendon or Pujols. Is either of these fair value in a points league or too much.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Chris: Probably fair if he keeps this up.

  14. What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas says:
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    Could you go into a little detail of your take on Arrieta? You have him 6th so you like the guy, Grey is not a fan.. I’m conflicted on whether to trade him or hold. He’s supposed to be the Ace of my staff of… McCullers, Salazar, Nova, Maeda, Shark, Teheran, Walker, Morton and Wood.

    I’m looking at possibly Arrieta and Donaldson for Bryant and Severino or Wacha. Or

    Arrieta and Blackmon for Scherzer and Springer. Or

    Arrieta for Porcello and Wacha.

    How would you rate those trade offers.

    Looking forward to your Pitcher ranks ROS

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas: I like Arrieta still, he’s getting less groundballs, and the velocity is down, but his SwStr% is up and the K’s are because of it. His control has improved year over year, and he’s been a little unlucky.

      That’s said, with that kind of starter depth, I’d trade him. I like the first two trades you proposed.

      • shops says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:
        Thanks Ralph, exactly what I was looking for. I have no clue about all the peripherals which is why I pay you guys the big bucks!

  15. Fausto

    Fausto says:
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    You owning Manea in a 10tm?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Fausto: If his rehab start tomorrow goes as planned, I’d grab him.

  16. Longbeachyo says:
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    OK Ralph, I love your prospect work/posts, but I’m going to be a little critical here. Please take it for what it’s worth and use it to get better.
    JB had this down to a science, and while I’ll admit not a whole lot of people commented on his pitcher posts, some of the best info on Razzball was due to JB and the definitive work he did on these pitcher profiles. (Miss you JB!)
    So what JB did that made this so great, was that he targeted pitchers that were lesser known/owned. That way, if the player is a free agent, we’ll all be intrigued to read to see if he’s worth picking up. 2) JB would actually identify each pitch and talk more specifically about his repertoire. That can be a little tedious (to read AND report on) especially after a full start of 100 pitches or so, but I loved how specific JB was and also included a lot of peripherals like swinging strike percentage and such… You did a little better today with Severino highlighting his velocity a number of times and talking about his slider. Something that concerns me though, and I’m surprised you didn’t talk about this more, is how infrequently he throws his changeup. Can he remain this good only throwing his changeup 13% of the time? I feel like that’s something you should have covered more. You did say he needs to throw it more, but are there other pitchers out there that do as well (or better) with only two pitches (86% or greater)? Being a severino owner, I’m concerned if that’s not the case. His changeup grades out really well, so maybe it’s just a matter of him throwing it more… IDK.
    3) Especially towards the end of his run there, I feel like JB was able to bring to life the pitchers repertoires with the .gif’s. You’ve done a good job with that, but once again speak/reference more specifically the pitch and not so much the outcome of the at-bat. These profiles can really help out fantasy teams if the time and effort is put into it.
    Sorry to be critical, but I want these posts to be great and I’m just trying to help. Thank you for your effort.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Longbeachyo: feels nitpicky and to be honest JB was not the most exciting writer to read. Super nice guy though. But any time you have changes you can’t expect it to be the same so there is no reason to point it out. If you don’t like the way ralph does it then don’t read it. Have you seen how many posts ralph does? I always hated guys like you that come in here with your passive critiques without thinking how much time he puts into putting this together not to mention the rankings which should be it’s own separate post. You shame your name

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @J-FOH: Thanks Jack, bur no worries.

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: hey, he was talking to my boy all wrong over here. I didn’t like his tone nibbling at your nuts

          • Making it up says:
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            @J-FOH: Try not getting offended for other people, you do enough of that for yourself, no?

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Making it up: no. It’s a general critique of nit picking writers here. Offended takes a lot but thanks for making an observation

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Making it up: Jack and I are the same person like Tony Clifton.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Longbeachyo: I appreciate your opinion. I’m trying to do things a little differently. I like to let the actual happenings of the game lead you to a conclusion. Maybe I can do a better job of that.

      I’m probably going to be doing more mainstream pitchers in the midst of a breakout or mechanical change. Which is why I chose Ed-Rod and Severino.

      The changeup stuff is a matter of opinion. Many think he’s better off throwing it sparingly, as it doesn’t get a lot of swings. I know it grades highly in Fangraphs pitch values, but in the otherside Brooks doesn’t think highly of it. When it comes down to it, I felt his fastball command, and nasty slider were the precipice of his recent success.

      Thanks for the read

      • Longbeachyo says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: I can appreciate/respect different, and I AM being nit picky. I DO appreciate the time you guys put into this and have actually bought daiquiris for some of you before if you remember that…
        JB wasn’t the most exciting writer, but what he did do well was talk about the specifics of each individual pitch. He led me to believe that he, himself, used to be a pitcher, if you know what I mean. It looked to me like he spent a lot of time understanding the repertoires and their usage. That kind of detail doesn’t go unnoticed. I miss it, is all I’m saying. But if that’s something you’re not going to do, it’s not like I’m going to stop reading. Like I said before, I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate the effort put forth. Love you too, J-FOH.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Longbeachyo: Yeah, I mean I can appreciate JB love he did a great job. What specific analysis of each pitch was lacking?

          • Longbeachyo says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: I can’t really say, since I didn’t watch the game.
            I guess it was the fact that JB “labeled” each pitch, which then gave him the opportunity to talk about it, and if it was good or not.

  17. Sun Tzu says:
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    In my 10-team redraft league, I’ve got Syndergaard, Cespedes, and Taillon and only one D.L. slot, and with no update on Taillon’s return I’m wondering if I should continue to hold him. Lots of streamables on waivers (Ivan Nova, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha-types), so no shortage of SP’s, and I could really use the roster spot. Hold or drop?

    • Shark says:
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      @Sun Tzu: Very sorry to say, but RW reports Taillon had surgery for suspected testicular cancer.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Sun Tzu: I would guess that Taillon is done for the year.

  18. Daniel Moran says:
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    Any context on Pomeranz dropping from 39 in Wk 4 to 68? He’s pitched great since and his xFip is 3.14

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Daniel Moran: That was a JB ranking, he hasn’t moved in either of mine. While the K/9 is nice, he’s homer prone in Fenway and the AL East. While the K’s are up, his SwStr% is actually down about 2%. One of the big reasons behind the ranking is his inefficient nature as a pitcher. He often struggles to get out of the 6th. Is he buried a little due to personal bias, sure, but as a Sox fan I’ve watched enough to be weery.

  19. M says:
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    Mike Montgomery or Eddie Butler filling Anderson’s rotation spot?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @M: My guess is Montgomery. I’m a fan.

  20. HarperBetterThanTrout says:
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    Would you drop Joe Ross for any of Graveman or Snell for tonight’t game? Even though this is a keeper league

  21. Jon says:
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    Would you bench Senzatela at home vs the cubs tonight, or throw him out there and hope for the best?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Jon: I’d bench him. That start worries me.

  22. H says:
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    Bogarts and Duffy for Kluber. What side do you like? Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @H: Xander and Duffy side

  23. Joeg414 says:
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    Wheeler vs Giants. Or Miranda vs Philly ?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Joeg414: Miranda vs Philly

      • Joeg414 says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:
        Taken. You trust Wheeler enough to stream?

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Joeg414: In the right matchup. He’s one of those guys where you’re just hoping he figures something out and harnesses all his potential. He’s never terrible, but certainly never meets expectations. Then again, Mets.

  24. indefiniteinfinite says:
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    Your like everywhere now! I don’t know how you do it but thanks for all the great info/research. Who gets the call first Beede, Faria, or Fedde?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @indefiniteinfinite: My guess is Faria. Such a situational thing, an injury, a trade, a trade and an injury. Depends what dominos fall where.

  25. Notorious PING! says:
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    Hey Ralph, thanks for doing this, love it as always!

    Piggybacking off the guy above (gross!)

    Bigger impact this year: Faria or Woodruff?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Notorious PING!: I’m going Faria, he’s got swing and miss stuff, I think Woodruff might be like Mike Leake.

  26. Mike says:
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    Great Article!

    Thoughts on trading my Carlos Santana to Robbie Ray, or Polanco to get Carrasco?

    Thanks.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Mike: I kind of like either or.

  27. Skillz says:
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    Keeper League: which two would you roster between Berrios, Giolito, and Hader?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Skillz: Hader and Berrios

  28. TheMadBatter says:
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    Can you profile pitchers who might be on the cusp of something good but are under 60% ownership? I love the Severino post but I feel like it’s rosterbation for those owners who own him and keeps the rest of us with blue balls. I’m justdmade I didn’t pick him up when I had the chance. keep up the good work.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @TheMadBatter: Ha! Thanks, I was going to Jesse Hahn but the start wasn’t good. It was between Jesse Hahn, Jason Vargas, and Severino. I’m leaning toward Vargas this week.

      Anyone you’re interested in seeing? I take requests.

      • TheMadBatter says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Maybe Griffin or Miranda? Or Karns? These guys are still on waivers in most leagues and have been pitching well enough to warrant a closer look.

  29. Milarky says:
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    I’m in a league that only has limited waiver claims, so we really don’t have streaming. I’m looking to upgrade my SPs from the wire (would replace Hammel), but I need to take more of a ROS view point. Guys that are available:

    Charlie Morton
    Jason Vargas
    Mike Leake
    Eduardo Rodriguez
    Matt Andriese
    Mike Montgomery
    Hector Santiago
    Ariel Miranda

    Based on your rankings do you really think Vargas is the guy? I was leaning Ed-Rod or Morton. Thoughts on who I should try and prioritize? In case it makes a difference, my current staff is Scherzer, deGrom, Salazar, Severino, Nova, Pomeranz, Jon Gray, Norris, Shoemaker, Hammel.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Milarky: I like Vargas’ ratio help and ballpark, better but Morton will get you more wins and K’s. My concern with Morton is his injury history. I’d give Morton a look.

      • Milarky says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks Ralph! No love for Ed-Rod? I thought for sure you would weigh in on him given you affiliation…

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Milarky: I wrote him up last week, and I do like him, but Morton and Vargas are dealing

          • Milarky says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: No doubt, but I need to play the long game here. Do you expect them to continue dealing at a higher level for the rest of the season?

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
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              @Milarky: Yes. Vargas can regress and still be good, Morton’s big question mark to me is health not ability.

  30. dubjay says:
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    Is it time to cut bait on Snell in a 12 team keeper league? These young pitchers are tough to stick with. I already dropped Glasnow. Im getting kind of sick of everyone talking about what a great arm he has. He seems to implode by the 3rd inning in every game. Its a challenge for him to make it through the 5th under 100 pitches.
    Best available FAs
    A.Wood
    B.McCarthy
    W.Miley
    M.Folynewicz
    F.Liriano
    A.Cobb

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @dubjay: I’d give Wood a roll with McCarthy hitting the DL. If you need QS I’d go Folty.

  31. woodzler says:
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    McCarthy on the DL :(

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @woodzler: Pain! All I feel is pain!!!

  32. Gottabesweet says:
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    Dynasty league: I can send Matz, Snell or Duffy with Lucroy to get Cueto and Meija. (I have Contreares at C currently)

    Rank Matz, Snell, Duffy – long term, who should i give up to get Cueto.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Gottabesweet: Duffy, Snell, and Matz. I’d give up Matz and be rid of that evil.

      • gottabesweet says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        Ralph – The current trade would be Matz/Tyler Oneill/Lucroy for Cueto/Robbie Ray and / Meija (Indians C) – Dynasty Points.

        • gottabesweet says:
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          @gottabesweet:

          Or even Cueto/Ray for Duffy/Oneil

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @gottabesweet: I like this offer more than the Duffy O’neill

  33. Sdub88 says:
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    my SPs are Scherzer, Carrasco, Severino, Duffy, Bundy, and Lackey.

    Samardzjia (and Taijuan Walker) are available on the FA list. Do I dump one of Margot, DeShields, Hernan Perez, Lackey or Schoop for Samardzjia?

    H2H league, pitching stats: Wins, ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts, Ks, K/9, and Saves

    thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Sdub88: Yeah I’d go Perez

  34. sheriff mcrawdawg says:
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    and the AUDACITY to rank Sale over Kershaw!

    Alex Wood looking nasty yesterday –difference of 8.5 between k/9 and bb/9.. using his change way more (27% of the time) SwStr% up to 11.3..

    If only his arm wouldn’t fall off or they boot him from the rotation

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @sheriff mcrawdawg: Sale is the man!!! Sour grapes hahaha

      Wood’s going to be in the next top 100, particularly with the news on McCarthy.

  35. KarlJ says:
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    I know Wood was mentioned a few times already but I guess you do not expect him to stick in the rotation and that was why he was left out of your top 100?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @KarlJ: He’ll be in the next one, I didn’t expect him to stick, but the McCarthy news changes everything.

  36. Theitguy says:
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    Drop Kennedy for Triggs or Wood? Keeper league with all IR Slot full………

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Theitguy: If it’s QS start I’d go Triggs, if not I’d go Wood.

  37. Nick says:
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    Would you trade Bundy/Hendricks for Rizzo/Syndergaard? This is a H2H league

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Nick: Yes for sure.

  38. Rick MaHorn says:
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    Fair trade or not?

    I give Porcello and Carlos Gomez for Michael Pineda.

    I can pick up Puig after I trade away Gomez.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Rick MaHorn: So Porcello and Gomez for Puig and Pineda? I’d do that.

  39. tony says:
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    Hi ralph , thanks for the writing

    What do you think about luke weaver, when do you expect he’s gonna be called up, and what is his value right now and in a dinasty league, thanks a lot man

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @tony: His value is lower than it was a year ago, but no is a good time to buy because of it. He has strikeout ability, and excellent control. His issue is commanding his stuff, and hitting all of his spots. He got into trouble last year with homers.

  40. JB2 says:
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    Golden stuff here. Two questions:

    – Is Rich Hill a straight up drop? He’s burning up a DL spot for me, but I don’t like abandoning hope.

    – Who’s the worst hitter you would deal Darvish for? Murphy? Myers? Correa?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @JB2: Not droppable yet, unless you have someone you can DL who’s more valuable. He claims he’s making a rehab start today.

  41. Dougie says:
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    ralph, would you drop Matt Chapman, Christin Stewart or Casey Gillaspie for Altherr in a Dynasty?

  42. dubjay says:
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    Which of these SPs would you drop in a 12 team keeper league(we keep 10)and for who?
    B.SNELL, C.MORTON, S.MANAEA
    best available FAs
    A.WOOD
    W.MILEY
    M.ANDRIESE
    AJ GRIFFIN
    D.STRAILLY
    M.FOLTYNEWICZ

  43. Schnoo says:
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    I’m hitter rich and pitcher poor. Received an offer to give Jose and get Danny Duffy and Masahiro Tanaka. I also have Freeman, Thames, and Chris Davis as 1B options. My trade partner has Kluber, Cueto, Keuchel, Hendricks on his staff. What’s your read on Duffy and Tanaka and if that she a reasonable return?

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