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It’s amazing to me how many times teams get burned by signing huge free agent deals.  It’s like they’re either not aware of what other teams are doing or they’re not paying attention.  How’d that A-Rod to Rangers deal work out for the Rangers?  Hamilton and Pujols to the Angels?  Or when the entire National League All-Star team spent three months in a Marlins uniform?  Robinson Cano is quality, but Marco Scutaro could’ve won the Mariners the AL West if F-Her, Iwakuma and Taijuan were hitting on all cylinders.  Well, at least the Mariners didn’t need to give up anything but a crapton of a money.  Cano went from re-signing with the Yanks to resigning to play with the Mariners (play on words points!).  Can’t fault a guy for taking that kind of money.  Shouldn’t be surprised either, I mean his mother’s maiden name is Mercedes.  When it appeared like Cano was going to the Yanks, I gave him the projected line of 97/29/110/.310/4 and ranked him fifth overall in my rankings that I’m working on now that will be published in January.  Now, I can’t see it.  Not sure which way I’m re-shuffling my rankings, but his projections have to drop in Safeco, unless they move in the fences once again.  I don’t like just looking at what a player did in away games at the stadium he will now call home.  Just looking at what Cano did in Safeco for his career doesn’t tell the full story.  He was facing the Mariners staff, and it was an away game.  Players react differently to being on the road, especially cross country.  With that said (reversal time!), in 40 games in Safeco, Cano had a line of 17/4/20/.309/2.  Last year, Safeco played more neutral than it has in the past.  Doubles and triples went up, homers and average sat pretty much where they were prior to the fences moving in.  All of that info leads me to think what a fourth grader could’ve told you, Cano will remain a batting average plus but take a small hit in power.  A small hit in power for a guy who doesn’t regularly top 30 homers isn’t great.  The Mariners are now in play for every free agent so it might seem like his runs and RBIs won’t take as big of a hit, but remember what happened when Pujols and Hamilton were united in Anaheim or every All-Star landed in South Florida?  Not a whole lot for their runs and RBIs.  Even if the Mariners sign every other free agent, it doesn’t mean great things for Cano.  I’ll say Cano will stay relatively neutral from last year because the Yankees weren’t good then either.  So that brings me to Cano’s projected line of 84/26/105/.312/4.  Not terrible, not quite what I hoped for in a rebound season in New York.  As Simon and Garfunkel would tell you, this deal does prove Seattle loves Robinson more than you ever Cano.  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2014 fantasy baseball:

Curtis Granderson – Like Pedro Martinez so eloquently put (not eloquent at all), the Yankees were his daddy.  Well, they’re also the Mets’ daddy.  And the Mets have Girl With Daddy Issues Syndrome.  They will never be the Yankees, so they sleep with any guy that will show them attention and then they clean up the guy’s bathroom the next morning without being asked.  “I was building up the rings in my toilet bowl so I can tell how long I’ve been in this apartment.”  That’s you being ungrateful.  Grandy has an extremely small sample size (that’s what she said) in Metco, so it’s pretty inconsequential.  His biggest issue of late is staying healthy and hitting above .240.  I don’t see a huge correction coming for either of those, but I’ll assume he can stay on the field.  For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 76/28/86/.235/12.

Carlos Beltran – Signed by the Yankees, who are apparently going with the Little League lineup of five outfielders.  Brett Gardner is gonna play short center, Ichiro will play short right and Alfonso Soriano will play the over-demanding father who makes his son feel like crap.  His son will be played by Vernon Wells.  C’mon, Vernon Wells just wants a hot pretzel!  I get that the ‘big’ free agent bats available this year were only so many guys, but right now they have Kelly Johnson at 3rd and Eduardo Nunez at 2nd.  Not terrible for most teams, but THEY HAVE FIVE OUTFIELDERS!  Maybe if I say that enough Beltran, Soriano and/or Ellsbury will get hurt.  I’m concerned about Gardner playing enough to get 500 ABs, but he might be the only one who stays healthy.  If I were calling the shots, I’d have Gardner batting 2nd and Jeter would drop down.  That ain’t going to happen though.  Why am I talking so much about Gardner in Beltran’s blurb?  Because Gardner is an interesting fantasy add later in drafts, whereas everyone knows Beltran.  Maybe the Yanks will free Gardner and trade him somewhere he can be useful.  For 2014, I’ll give Beltran the line 78/24/88/.279/5.

Mike Napoli – Re-signed with the Red Sox.  I guess they were impressed with all his offseason, cigarette-in-mouth, shirtless jogging.  I liked it better when his mom was taking off her shirt.  For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 74/25/87/.251/2.

Norichika Aoki – Traded to the Royals for Will Smith.  Who did this deal?  Jada Pinkett Smith?  John Travolta because Will Smith’s such a friend of Scientology? Think this might’ve been the first time the Royals have been on the better side of a trade since the East India Company.  This doesn’t help Aoki (doesn’t hurt him either) as much as it finally, mercifully, adverbially gets Alex Gordon out of the leadoff spot.  Mazel tov!  Royals, you are now a man of a team.  Aoki doesn’t strike out at all, which will mean more RBIs for Gordon, Hosmer and Moobs (and, dare I say, Salvador Perez and Moustakas).  All in all or whatever clunky sentence intro you have, a great deal for the Royals.  For 2014, I’ll give Aoki the line of 92/10/53/.293/24.

J.P. Arencibia – Signed with the Rangers to split time with Geovany Soto.  Since they’re both righties, I’m not sure how that will work out.  Maybe they’re flip Jurickson Profar and heads it’s Arencibia.  Maybe they’ll flip Soto for a middle reliever.  They really don’t need two garbage catchers.  Maybe they’re waiting for the first Wednesday of the season to see which guy the garbage man picks up.  Lots of questions, and not a whole lot of motivation from me to figure out answers.  Outside of two catcher leagues, Arencibia isn’t a guy you’re drafting.  He’ll be a guy you pick up when he’s hitting during the season.  For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 38/18/49/.220.

Nate McLouth – Signed on with the Nats to be their fourth outfielder.  Brokering the deal and receiving a 15% commission was the wall in Dodger Stadium.  The Wall said, “If I move forward at the right time, I can knock that Harper kid out for three months next time.”

Bud Norris – Orioles are considering using Bud for their closer.  The Jeopardy question to that is, “What are they smoking?”

Scott Feldman – Signed with the Astros.  For players that matter for fantasy, I give a projected line when they sign somewhere.  For players that don’t matter, I don’t give a line.  The sad thing is I’m not giving Feldman a line and he’s the Astros number one starter.

Chad Qualls – Signed on to the Astros, a team whose bullpen looks like a three-headed gargoyle barfing or simply a barfoyle.  Qualls could see time as the closer, but that’s more about the barfoyle than Chad’s abilities.

Edward Mujica – Signed with the Red Sox a two-year deal for $9.5 million.  Usually I don’t bother saying the number on the contract because it doesn’t matter for fantasy, but I just want to say, it’s hard to argue with this move.  When the worst of worst pitchers get $30 million, the Red Sox just closed down the 7th or 8th inning (depending on when they use Mujica).  I feel a little like an ESPN analcyst saying this, but it’s a solid real baseball move.  As for fantasy, it doesn’t matter.

Rafael Furcal – Signed with the Marlins.  I picture the announcement coming like this.  The Marlins representative in a synagogue surrounded by old Jews.  The Marlins representative reaches into a metal drum and pulls out a bingo ball.  Before he can announce the ball, Loria comes up and whispers in his ear.  Then the Marlins representative says, “I’d like to announce Rafael Furcal has signed on with the team to play 2nd base.  Okay, now back to the game.  Let’s see…N-48.  Hey, it looks like Mrs. Liebowitz’s got bingo!”  Mrs. Liebowitz corrects him, “It’s Ms.”

Garrett Jones – Signed with the Marlins.  His press conference went like this, “B-7.”

  1. costaricanchata says:
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    ” Players react differently to being on the road, especially cross country. ”
    perhaps this is the crux of the matter for cano’s 2014 season .
    since every mariner road trip is a minimum 3+1/2 flight , i suppose this will take
    some getting use to .
    maybe it will affect him more in 2014 than in 2015 and beyond .
    cust kayin’ .

    gardner seemingly is the odd man out , but shouldn’t have much more
    trade value than gentry .

    eagerly await your outfielder rankings/projections for 2014 , but can you
    give us a hint now ?
    who are you drafting , fowler or bj upton ??
    thanks .

    • 2 Giant rings says:
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      I@costaricanchata: I wish Gardner only has a bit more trade value than Gentry. The Giants could use him. Our current left fielder is Gregor Blanco. Have you seen the Dodgers’ depth chart? …sorry, I didn’t set out to make this about me, it just happened.

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @2 Giant rings:

        some decent outfielders are available , either by free agency or trade .
        doubtful that the dodgers would deal with an inter-divisional rival , however .

        not that i’m taking it personally , but how much did you pay that
        scum-bag selig to keep my A ‘s out of san jose ?

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @costaricanchata:

      edit *
      3 + 1/2 = 3 + 1/2 hours

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @costaricanchata: Gentry’s not in the same realm as Gardner… Fowler….

      • Luke T says:
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        @Grey:
        editing your edit* @costraicanchata, 3 + 1/2 hours + 3 & 1/2 hours. hehe
        Also could be said 3 1/2 hours or more. Also flights to cali and some sw states are under three hours or right around three hours, but I get your point.
        Seattle fan here. Love the deal. F the peripherals, we need hope more than anything otherwise we will just continue buying different shades of blue and green….

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, but even if the flight is two hours and same time zone, players aren’t home, in their own bed, in their own clubhouse…It’s just different…But whatever the case is for that, the M’s are better for 2014 than they were a week ago…

  2. Samuel says:
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    The deal for Aoki guarantees that Khris Davis will have spot in the lineup in 2014. A career 288/392/506 hitter in the minors with a nice showing after his callup in 2013, will make him a decent sleeper in next year’s draft. The park and the lineup around him should also help for counting stats.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Samuel: Yeah, definitely…

  3. Kobayashi Maru says:
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    Thoughts on Lucroy vs. Rosario? I own them both in a keeper-auction league and I will probably keep one and move the other. ESPN and Rotochamp have Lucroy much, much higher and I don’t see why, considering the stat lines are almost the same with Rosario’s being arguably better, and there is talk of 1B/RF, which could mean more at bats than you average catcher who gets off days.

  4. jim says:
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    Hope the M’s aren’t done and make a trade that gets Franklin out of town and into some playing time. Have him on my dynasty team.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jim: Yeah, that would be sweet

  5. mindicohn says:
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    Would I be dumb for moving Cano ($30) for Puig ($7) in a keeper?

    Also debating on 6 of the following:
    J.Upton $23
    Price $21
    Machado $4
    A.Jones $13
    Anibal 7
    Cole 7
    Teheran 7
    Cain 22

    Machado/Jones are no brainers to me. Not sure of rest.

    • Fungazi says:
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      @mindicohn: Cain seems x-penssssive. $22?

    • matt says:
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      @mindicohn: frees up $23 to spend wise where. I can see puigi hitting 30 hrs pretty easily next season. Just depends on needs 2b power is mighty thin on the wire.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @mindicohn: Forget Cain and Teheran… I’d take Puig there…

  6. Boomer19 says:
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    Simon and Garfunkel. Well played.

  7. Randy BoBandy says:
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    Yankees still need pitching above everything else…and hope their FA signings can all stay healthy.

  8. Jay

    Jay says:
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    Yeah, I’ve started on the keeper rankings and I’ve had him as high as 3 and as low as 11 in my ranking rough drafts. Just a tough one to peg. One things for certain, I have him ranked ahead of Chase Headley… but it was soooo close.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay: Ha! Where’d Yonder Alonso fall? Outside the top 5?

      • Jay

        Jay says:
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        @Grey: Top-10, I figure. I mean, all that power potential…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I really like his ability to ‘make the pitcher work’…A quality that just doesn’t factor into fantasy enough…

  9. OaktownSteve says:
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    There used to be a guy at Jack Murphy stadium for Charger games that read: John Carney Smokes The Right Hash. It’s a football joke.

    I think the Orioles might be smoking the right hash too. I can totally see Norris as closer. He’s always been a guy that struggles second and third time through the line up. And the wipeout slider has shown itself to be a legitimate 1st pitch in a closer arsenal.

    For his career Norris has a 9.88 k/9 rate in innings 1-3 and it drops down to 7.06 for all other innings. By way of comparison, Verlander is at 8.66 innings 1-3 and 8.34 for all other innings. I get the impression Bud has a closer mentality too.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Interesting… I didn’t dig into Norris’s numbers, but it just sounds crazy…Maybe it is crazy…like a fox!

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        That should have said “who had a sign that read: John Carney…”

        Bud’s never been able to get deep into games. Both Hochevar and Wade Davis had similar problems as starters in going back through the line up and both put together closer worthy numbers out of the pen. May or may not work but I think a good idea to explore.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I think closers can be a lot of less-than-ideal starters, so it could work…O’s are a team that was on the verge last year, and don’t have many in-pen options if Norris didn’t work so that could be an issue if you get to May and he’s not working…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: when i read that I thought the same as OTS. I didn’t look at the numbers but remember him being a good first time through the order guy. The O’s could end up having a scary good pen with Norris, Matusz, and Hunter…..They can be called the 3 failigos

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha! I like that name for them…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: Note to self: I got me an article title.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Hehe

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup

  10. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    its getting time to get into the baseball mode again,

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Welcome back!

  11. Kobayashi Maru says:
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    My keeper league lets us retain a drafted at the same price for one year or indefinitely at +$5 per season. Some of my decisions are obvious: Machado at $7 will be long term (so $12 to redraft, then $17 for 2015 and so on) so will Myers at $5. Others I’m less sure about and I was hoping for some feedback:

    Shelby Miller at $2
    Wilin Rosario at $6
    Jonathan Lucroy at $1
    Carlos Gomez at $11

    Should I take the one season discount and keep the at those prices, or keep them long term at a premium?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      None of those guys are long term… Take the one season rentals…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

  12. Jay_0321 says:
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    I traded Rizzo for Gyorko straight up. Likey?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not really

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: he should ask Jay Wrong

      • Jay_0321 says:
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        @Grey: So here is the thing. Rizzo has been kept once and can only be kept two more times and I dont think he will be a franchise keeper unless he hits 40+ bombs. I get Gyroko to fill our new rookie kepper designation for a total of four years without penalty. I am now sitting with:

        Franchised: max of 3
        Cutch
        Votto
        Pedi

        Adam Jones – one more year in which I will probably replace Pedi
        E5
        Chapman
        Waino
        Ajax or Donaldson

        rookie:
        Gray
        Gyorko

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, gotcha

  13. goodfold2 says:
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    are we sure enough that travis D is the starter to trade a j ellis to try to get fister (may have to throw in a MI prospect or draft pick). 30 man dynasty league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No idea what you’re asking…

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: are we pretty sure that travis d’arnaud is the NYM catcher starter for this coming season, such that I can rely on him starting, enough so that I can attempt to flip a j ellis and likely prospects or draft picks to acquire doug fister?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He’s the starter unless the Mets trade for someone

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Grey: since this is a 30 man league, i may not want to flip ellis just yet then, as if d’arnaud is only a split starter (due to them trading for someone) i’d be screwed.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Funny… Odd the guy didn’t just say it was true… It’s like he said the facts that make it true but then didn’t want to say it were actually true…

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: probably because it seems to hinge on whether or not they actually were the first, or only team to actually bid 9 for 225 mil. That appears to be one person’s opinion.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If it’s one man’s opinion then it’s not true at all… He’s saying it’s tongue in cheek but the Mariners were the only one to bid 9-year and 10-year contracts… Maybe he doesn’t know what tongue-in-cheek means…

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Grey: i didn’t mean it has to only be one man’s opinion (could be the truth), but no other sources mentioned.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, I hear ya…Just not sure why he says tongue-in-cheek but they were the only ones to offer those two deals… Tongue-in-cheek implies he has no idea…

  14. goodfold2 says:
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    dynasty league question. even if you aren’t that familiar with the prospects you’d have an opinion on the MLB guys (and general idea) for sure.
    i know I can’t do this yet, before I trade away dempster for anything at least to free money (he’s 14 million, and may be able to fetch one of those superprospects mentioned above) but is this deal any good. My
    Sale (.425 mil, could franchise and keep over whole deal, when he gets one)
    for his
    Ranaudo P BOS
    Goodwin OF WAS
    Hamels P PHI (15 mil)
    He also has
    Puello OF NYM
    Fulmer P NYM
    Carpenter MI/CI STL (.4 mil)

    I have Lowrie MI OAK (1.15 mil)
    1. is this deal good as is?
    2. if so are either of Puello and/or Fulmer better than Goodwin/Ranaudo?
    3. Do you agree Carpenter’s better than Lowrie? I think he’s a much better pure hitter and isn’t the crazy injury risk Lowrie is (and cheaper, and more positions). It’s possible I could throw in my Lowrie for his Carpenter.
    4. If Carpenter is worth more, would it be even if I added in one of
    A.Gumbs MI NYY
    C.Phelps MI BAL (this guy appears to be cuttable as soon as I get over my prospect max amount)
    D. Robertson MI OAK
    E.Salcedo MI ATL
    I have a lot of MI prospects, but pretty few OF or CI ones.
    So if this is true it would end up Sale/one of those crappy MI prospects/Lowrie for Carpenter/Hamels/goodwin or puello/ranaudo or fulmer.
    could just keep sale as piece of the future, of course. thanks.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: sorry superprospects where only mentioned above in scott’s post. big names correa/buxton/springer/bundy/cosart/z.wheeler

  15. Phatboy71 says:
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    would you go Darvish for Cano ? H2H ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sure

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