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If Sean Rodriguez didn’t have 2nd base eligibility, he wouldn’t get this 2011 fantasy sleeper post.  Keep that in mind.  I like him, but he doesn’t have a secure enough spot in the Rays’ plans to warrant his own post without that eligibility, which, of course, is much prettier at your middle infidel spot.  Last year in part-time duty (hehe, I said duty), Rodriguez had a line of 53/9/40/.251/13.  Yawn all you want, but that’s in only 343 ABs.  There were probably times when you owned him.  Say exiting Spring Training (.460 average, .873 SLG) or maybe you owned him from June to August (7 homers, 10 steals in 211 ABs).  Maybe you owned him because you remembered he was some kinda Baldwin in the minors — 30 homers and 9 steals in 2009.  That woke you up, huh?  How about this — in 744 minor league games, he has 127 homers and 104 steals.  Before we start gazing into each others’ eyes and whispering sweet-nothings, Sean-Rod put up those numbers in hitter-friendly parks. Prior to exiting this Intro Paragraph, let me point out he’ll be 26-years-old in April.  It’s getting close to now or never.  How one responds to that is anyone’s guess, but it’s there.  So what can we expect of Sean Rodriguez in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

It’s really about opportunity with Sean Rodriguez.  If he gets 500 ABs, he could give you 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals.  Right now, as I type this post, I don’t think he gets 500 ABs.  But — and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but — he can get 500 ABs.  No one’s drafting Rodriguez in the first 15 or so rounds.  In some leagues, he won’t be drafted at all.  As a last round MI, it doesn’t even matter if he has a starting job when you draft.  Would you prefer Orlando Hudson as your MI who you’re going to drop by April 20th?  Or would you prefer a guy with 20/20 upside that may not have a job?  You want the latter, which, I believe, is the second one.  Trust me, if you need to find an MI replacement in April, you’ll be able to.  Go for upside!  In 2011, I could see Sean Rodriguez giving a line of 65/18/75/.245/20.  Sure, that’s crazy optimistic, but whatevs it’s a late-round flier.  (BTW, is it flyer or flier?  Can I get a ruling on this?  Thank you.)

  1. Giant JJ says:
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    I think it’s flier. A flier is information. You take that information and you run with it. It’s uncertain. You are taking a chance on something. Something that flys is a certainty. If it is a flyer then it has wings and you know in advance that it will be a success.

  2. jsp2014 says:
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    I like srod and all but he does most of his damage vs. lefties. As a regular player he won’t get 1/3 of his ABs against lefties again. He’s been pretty brutal against righties. Obviously we could do worse at 2b but i have a feeling he’s going to be a popular guy come February and may not come too cheap.

  3. Jay says:
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    @jsp2014: Very good point, jsp2014. Sometimes we forget that platoon players are platooining and that a direct extrapolation of their overall numbers to full-time production is often quite misleading.

  4. Grey, I’m going to go against my English minor and the technical meaning of the words in question here and say that of the two, flyer is the more beautiful on the printed page, and as truth is also beautiful, Daniel Webster must be wrong in this case.

  5. pjtres says:
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    ey yo…
    can you rank these OF’s in a keeper?
    kemp, j-up, holliday, choo, mccutch

    thanks

  6. vinko says:
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    Where do you see Heyward ranking in pjtres OF’s list, also?

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Giant JJ: I’m still not sure, though you make sense.

    @jsp2014: It is a flier (flyer), but agree he was issues.

    @HOLLA(R): I tend to agree. It’s like the radio flyer.

    @pjtres: Upton, Kemp, McCutchen, Holliday…

    @vinko: Upton, Heyward….

  8. Nat says:
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    Flier & Flyer are variants of the same word, so either works as a piece of info you’re taking for consideration.

    Can I get a no-prize?

  9. Eddy says:
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    SeanRod reminds me of the AL version of Ian Desmond.

    ***Guys there are only 3 spots left in the 3rd Razzball Mock draft***

    It’s taking place at mock draft central (it’s free) at 8pm EST tomorrow.

    Password is sagnof.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nat: That sounds authoritative, which I like. I also like that I don’t have to remember which one to use.

  11. Fanthead says:
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    Not to beat a dead horse when it’s down (which means I will), but my favorite semi-portable dictionary says of “flyer”:

    1. flier

    2. Informal. a try, an experimental venture into something….

    3. an aerialist who swings from a trapeze thrugh the air to another performer….

    Under “flier” we see nothing that comes close to definition 2. Nothing, really, that goes beyond the idea of flying.

    I initially thought “flier” looked right for our purposes, but I’m glad I looked up both.

    My source is the formidable two-volume 1973 edition of The World Book Dictionary. I must point out that the other good commentators on this issue didn’t list sources.

    Speaking of important matters: In what order would you rate these 3bers: Chase Headley, Edwin Encarnacion, and Pablo Sandoval?

    Many thanks!

  12. Ray says:
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    Grey-good stuff as always. First time responding here, and
    your Heyward an McCutchen rankings above makes me more comfortable
    with my rankings which I posted yesterday. Your site is top notch
    and I read it daily. thanks Ray

  13. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Grey: What kind of OBP to you project from SRod?

  14. Terrence Mann says:
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    The Rays did lose Bartlett, Crawford, and Pena. Somebody has to take those ABs. I don’t see why 500 is out of the question for SeanRod.

    Grey, I think you mentioned a few months back you wanted to see the Joan Rivers documentary. Watched it on Netflix last night. I thought it was meh. Some of it was interesting and her recent stand up is definitely the highlight of the flick. I just got the impression that she had final edit and this was one of her attempts at getting her career rolling. The bits about her delivering Thanksgiving meals with her grandson seemed a bit staged, if not completely contrived.

  15. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Bit of a carry-over from the previous post. My Werth pick at #38 in the mock has kept me awake all night (kidding).

    Do you have The Dread Pirate and Heyward ahead of him in a non-keeper?

    @vinko: Are you in the 16-team mock that Rich organised?

  16. vinko says:
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    @Steve: Yes sir, keeping any eye on my adversaries.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fanthead: Thanks for the research! I like flyer better.

    @Ray: Thanks for the kind words!

    @SwaggerJackers: .330 at best…

    @Terrence Mann: I didn’t mind it.
    Wasn’t the best thing I saw all year…. Wasn’t nearly the worst. She cracks me up and still did in the movie.

    @Steve: Yup

  18. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Bah! If only I’d known. We’re drafting by email so when my next pick comes I’m going to keep everyone waiting til your rankings come out.

    @vinko: Which one are you?

  19. Fanthead says:
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    Hey Grey.

    Need your brain please (or mustache; whichever is the cause of your sage advice):

    1. In what order would you rate these 3bers: Chase Headley, Edwin Encarnacion, and Pablo Sandoval?

    2. Do you think Jordan Zimmerman will have a strong campaign in ’11?

    THANKS!

  20. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Terrence Mann: “I don’t see why 500 is out of the question for SeanRod.”

    jsp2014 explains why it is out of the question in #2.

    Translated: in 89 games vs. right-handed pitching SROD amassed:

    .229 AVG/.270 OBP/.372 SLG

    I loved SROD last year coming off minor league punch. Don’t see any reason to expect a sudden turn-around for SROD in 2011.

    (you are normally razor sharp on stuff; just think you missed this one…?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, tell em you’re away from your computer.

    @Fanthead: Sandoval, crap, crap…. 2. I’m hoping so.

  22. Tom Thumb says:
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    I agree with jsp big time here. I think we have seen this disconnect before with many players with splits. We mistakenly extrapolate their small-sample-size numbers. I think this is why we were let down by Jay Bruce and Ian Stewart, for example. I see the same with Sean- Rod but who knows

  23. @Tom Thumb: can’t see bruce in that category. i don’t remember him ever being platooned – he’s a princess prospect – plus he, for example, had better numbers against lefthanders than righthanders last year. i think we were let down by him because of the broken wrist hangover. i also think we won’t be let down by him next year.

    your larger point is quite correct, i’m just nitpicking you.

  24. vinko says:
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    @Steve: I am picking 13th.

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Thumb: I agree that Jay Bruce doesn’t belong in that category.

  26. big o says:
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    @Steve:
    @vinko:

    testament to the strength of the couch managers’ league .

  27. Terrence Mann says:
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    @simply fred: Those are some pretty poor numbers vs. righties but the Rays did let Pena ride the Mendoza line the past two seasons. Maybe they find a way to platoon him, again. But there’s a lot of ABs in that lineup from 2010 that have to be filled. SeanRod would be an obvious choice to get at least some of them.

  28. i’m gonna throw this out there: after reading this thread, i’d rather have bill hall than sean-rod.

    hear me out. the point about sean-rod and his platoon split is huge to me. combine that with his playing time uncertainty, it may spell trouble. true that tampa has a lot of PA opening up with the departure of crawford, pena, bartlett. but – he’s not likely to get much of the 1B action, they’ll probably bring someone in or play johnson. left field is liable to be some combination of jennings and joyce (speaking of, i loved ulysses.) and i think brignac plays every day at SS. that last does have the potential to free up some time for our sean, since brignac was his platoon partner at 2B last year most of the time. but i think they’re more likely to bring zobrist back in to the infield and play somebody else in the OF on righty days than they are to play sean all the time. it just feels more like a repeat of last year is the most likely outcome. which is fine, but makes him more of a waiver plug / deep league find than any kind of mixed target. which is basically what grey says in the post – a late-round fleighere.

    meanwhile, hall. he’s actually hit 35 home runs in a season before. paced out over 600 AB, he went 31/16 last year – in fenway, granted, and again with the extrapolating small samples. but i think it means more when he actually has done the real thing before at least once in his life over a full season. anyway, it’s definitely a positive sign. he’s only 31 years old. houston signed him to start, so his PT is much more secure. he’s a righty who hit righties better than lefties last year. and, speaking of fenway, he’s a righty going to houston. he fell off the map because he was a righty pull hitter who wound up in seattle, and then had injuries. not the first victim of that, won’t be the last.

    so, there’s that. aaron hill is the first mid-round fallback option for power at 2B; raburn’s the second, if he’s eligible. i think i’m going for hall as the third.

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @wily mo: Sean-Rod hits 5 homers in April, you’ll be hailed a genius if you drafted him and people will be trying to trade for him. You own Bill Hall and he’ll hit 20 homers and .240 over the season and you’ll be asking me if you should drop him at least once a week for four months.

  30. @Grey: true, there’s the stock-market trade value angle. sean has the perception of upside, which has value. so it’s worth mentioning. i don’t know, though. i mean sean’s not liable to be a BA party either. he hit .250 last year and it felt like a pretty good performance. and there’s no guarantee he’ll hit 5 in april. last year he hit 1 in april and may combined and everybody dropped him. guys at this level it can really go either way for any of them. what if hall hits 5 in april? last year he had two 5-homer months to sean’s zero. at that point people might start saying the same stuff i’m saying here, remembering 2006 a little more.

    i’m also juan uribe’s biggest fan, apparently, and don’t really understand why nobody but me cares about him, so maybe there’s a pattern here.

  31. JoeC says:
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    Rihanna and Matt Kemp just split.

    Good. I think Kemp might be draftable now. Get your head in the game, son!

  32. Steve says:
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    @vinko: Aha!

    Top quality first name you have there.

  33. @JoeC: really? that actually changes my cheat sheet, like, for real.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @wily mo: Yeah, perception becomes reality sometimes. But you can use that to your advantage. Actually makes me think of a post subject for February or March Grey.

    @Steve: Yes, Razzball forums are right there with TMZ.

  35. Jake in Columbus says:
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    How much more likely is someone to jump on a trade offer for an S-Rod type after a 5-homer April vs. a Bill Hall type after a 5-homer April? From my experience, the upside-factor is only very slightly more valuable in trade offers than career-year potential from a veteran (excepting hyped rookies, who have a certain amount of intrinsic value based on their draft cost). This is especially so early in the season when no one wants to trade.

    Also, the throw-in value of either player in a trade seems to be less than the chance of it being for real. Even if they’re buying, people usually don’t like to get the two players for one because they’d have to drop their own bench favorites.

    You might get something small one for one, but that’s probably about it. It could be worth more just to keep the guy to see if he pans out. If you happen to believe the surge is for real, you’re probably better off trading an established player to end up with greater value overall.

  36. BookieBob says:
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    HEY!!

    Where’s the sophomoric sex-booze focus I expect from this blog? I keep getting routed here, and am always annoyed by the helpful insight I have to wade through.

    Longing for the crass and insensitive old days…….sigh.

  37. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @BookieBob: Nice. One might be tempted to lodge a complaint with the BBB (Boobs & Booze Bureau) for lack of content. ;) Barring that, we may need to resort to http://www.clownpenis.fart for entertainment.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jake in Columbus: I don’t agree. People rush to grab a Sean-Rod type player. Bill Hall can sit on waivers for weeks before someone picks him up.

    @BookieBob: I’m bringing double obnoxiousness tomorrow.

  39. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @Grey: I don’t disagree people will rush to pick up a hot rookie first, and I prefer the upside guy most times too. However, I think picking him up off waivers is different than getting someone to trade for him immediately after you grab him. In that case, by the time someone else buys the surge enough to make a worthwhile trade for the guy, you might buy into his performance too. The quick buy low/sell high game people try to play seems to require a longer-term investment in a player than is often practical.

  40. Elijah says:
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    Welp. I completed the two sport sweep-o-rama in my buddies’ fantasy leagues, MLB and now NFL. I will undoubtedly pay for my bragging rights with the fact that no one will ever trade with me again!

  41. JoeC says:
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    @Steve
    Well, I don’t know what to tell you. Apparently the news in May 2010 was incorrect, as the break-up was just announced yesterday:

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/gossip/2010/12/rihanna-and-matt-kemp-call-it-quits-split.html

    Maybe we need a term for a player who gets involved with a hot starlet who distracts the player from performing well on the field and causes him to suck (ala Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo)?

    Maybe “hump slump”?

  42. Elijah says:
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    @JoeC:

    TMZ-ball eh? Guess I didn’t miss much that last few days :)

  43. Elijah says:
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    @wily mo:

    I drafted him in the penultimate round and was mocked…I like him…on the Dodgers he’s likely to hit in an RBI slot (3-4-5) and donk 20+, whats so bad about that? And he’s more trustable than a flier.

  44. @JoeC: no, that may 22 date is his site join date. the kemp/rihanna news post was from 12/15. not sure how they knew a couple weeks ago, but apparently they did – TMZ indeed.

    @Elijah: you’re talking about uribe. yeah. he was pretty much the best power option at SS outside of hanley or tulo’s september last year, so the ongoing total ignore is mystifying to me. i’m so mystified, i’m almost misty-eyed. sure, he has no speed and his average is bad. still. i really think he’s finally figured out how to hack just 5% less and tap into some late-career game power the last couple years.

  45. JoeC says:
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    @Wily mo:
    Doh! Yeah, I see my error now. Well I guess it was old news indeed!

    I still think we need a term for this. It happening once with Romo was a chance occurence. Now the same thing happening to Kemp, I think that constitutes a full-blown trend!

  46. Terrence Mann says:
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    Here’s my team from the most recent Razz mock. Getting tougher to draft as guys realize who fell in the first drafts.

    C Buster Posey R5 P6
    1B Paul Konerko R6 P7
    CI Ike Davis R18 P7
    2B Chase Utley R2 P7
    MI Neil Walker R22 P7
    SS Troy Tulowitzki R1 P6
    3B Pedro Alvarez R7 P6
    OF Nelson Cruz R3 P6
    OF Justin Upton R4 P7
    OF Bobby Abreu R8 P7
    OF Carlos Quentin R9 P6
    OF Garrett Jones R20 P7
    Util Austin Jackson R21 P6
    SP Hiroki Kuroda R10 P7
    SP Ricky Romero R11 P6
    SP Brandon Morrow R12 P7
    SP Gio Gonzalez R14 P7
    SP Dan Hudson R15 P6
    SP Johnny Cueto R17 P6
    SP C.J. Wilson R19 P6
    RP Neftali Feliz R13 P6
    RP David Aardsma R16 P7

    Pretty happy with my team. Wanted to prove to Grey you can wait until round 10 to draft your first starter and still end up with a nice staff. Looking back, I think I’d be more comfortable if I would have taken Oswalt as my #1 a round earlier. Outside of that, I’d take this team. Reached a little bit on Alvarez but he was the guy I was targeting after not getting a stud 3B.

  47. GopherDay says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Could you post the link to the draft results? I’d be interested in seeing them. Had to miss this mock.

  48. Cole says:
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    Bill Hall two biggest fans are his mother (remember the pink bat thing) and me. I was the founder of the Bill-ca-Hallics way back when he was a Brewer. That being said, I couldn’t see owning him in a 30 team league much less the standard. As for S-Rod, he is crazy unpredictable due to the fact that Joe Madden rides the hot hand so consistently. Last year after S-rod cooled off he was seeing 4 AB’s a week at times. I find it hard to believe he won’t find something to plug in.

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