Scouting the Unknown
July 29, 2009
Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects
A few StU posts back I was asked to belabor the highly touted A’s farm system. With all fairness to the commenter, I was under the impression that the A’s had all their top arms up, and hitters too – let’s be honest they cannot hit water if it was raining out. After much deliberation, James Simmons was the most interesting starting pitcher (they have a guy named Michael Inoa, who I couldn’t find much about, but he is a Cuban signing. Also, Henry Rodriguez is a high velocity arm in the bullpen, but is further away); and Chris Carter was an intriguing prospect. Sure I could have written about Aaron Cunningham or Adrian Cardenas, but that would be cheating and you know it. Enjoy!
A quick reminder how the Cube Ratings work.
James Simmons | SP | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 9/29/86 | 6-3 | 205 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #10 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (100) | K-Rating (78) | Efficiency (97)
There is tremendous pitching depth in the A’s farm system, but much of it has reached the majors already this year (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman, and Andrew Bailey) so Simmons is reaching a bit deep for difference makers this year or possibly even next year. However, he is ranked higher than Bailey (#23) or Outman (#12), meaning he has some talent.
Simmons was considered one of the most advanced pitchers in the 2007 draft when he was drafted out of college, but by advanced they meant great control of his fastball and change-up. His breaking pitches are, um, to put it nicely – JUNK! On the bright side, his change-up was voted the best in the system by team management. His fastball sits between 88 to 92 mph, topping out at 94 with a bit of movement and excellent control. Obviously, the change-up is his go-to pitch and he has stellar feel for it too. The breaking pitch of choice (since he hasn’t really developed either curve/slider) is still lacking any consistency. So what kind of numbers has he posted so far:
07 (AA): 6.9 K/9 | 2.43 BB/9 | 29 2/3 IP | .61 HR/9 | .359 BABIP | 3.94/3.44 ERA/FIP | 1.48 WHIP
08 (AA): 7.94 K/9 | 2.12 BB/9 | 136 IP | .73HR/9 | .345 BABIP | 3.51/3.26 ERA/FIP | 1.34 WHIP
09 (AAA): 5.75 K/9 | 3.45 BB/9 | 101 2/3 IP | .71 HR/9 | .326 BABIP | 5.75/4.21 ERA/FIP | 1.51 WHIP
Nothing spectacular. Out of college, the A’s sent him straight to AA, and he only had a brief stint before the season was over. In 2008, he proved that he deserved a promotion to AAA. Not a high strikeout pitcher, he must rely on that nice control he is touted for. However, 2009 has been awful for him. He lost over 2 k/9 and added a walk per nine innings. I am venturing to say that his is a bit over his head. Unless he can pick his K-rate back up and remove a walk from that BB/9 stat, he has little going for him as a major league starter. At best, he looks like a back of the rotation starter who can eat some innings for the A’s.
The A’s rely heavily on their farm, and Simmons is expected to contribute to their future plans. He was drafted earlier (first round) than his talent level by about two rounds. Needless to say, there is still plenty of time for him to rebound back to his AA numbers by the end of this year, or next. He is still only 22 (soon 23!). Keep an eye on him though, the A’s always are able to find useful innings out of their young prospects.
Chris Carter | 1B/DH | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 12/18/86 | 6-4 | 210 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #6 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (98) | Speed (15) | Contact (14) | Patience (78)
Other than having an extremely deceitful name (footballer; I am a die-hard Minnesota Vikings fan) and the same name as another Red Sox player, this Carter has something that those do not – a jaw dropping power swing! Remember last week when I brought up Mike Stanton, well we have found the second bash brother. He was part of two relatively large trades two years ago – the Carlos Quentin from Arizona to Chicago White Sox, and the Dan Haren from the A’s to the D-Backs (both in the same winter too). Needless to say, he is mighty talented. Just look at what he has accomplished so far:
07 CHW (A): .288/.382/.512 | .224 ISO | .332 BABIP | 459 AB | 24 HR | 24 K% | 12.7 BB%
08 A’s (A+): .259/.361/.569 | .310 ISO | .296 BABIP | 506 AB | 39 HR | 30.8 K% | 13.2 BB%
09 (AA): .305/.407/.515 | .210 ISO | .374 BABIP | 377 AB | 16 HR | 25.5 K% | 14.3 BB%
(He played in 2006, but his stats aren’t quite relevant enough for consideration, and truly just clog up the screen to make it look more complicated.)
Great ISO (that power he displays goes to all fields), nice slash lines, stellar patiences, and continuing refinement of his game. The K-rate is a bit scary, but he still reaches base at a nice clip thanks to impressive plate discipline. According to team player development personnel, because of his power swing he is extremely susceptible to breaking pitches, and there is a few large holes in his swing. The “high” batting averages should fall off into the .250 to .260 level as he progresses through he minors (one does not strikeout that often and still hit for a high average, sans a high BABIP). What is nice to see is that he has increased his walk rate with each passing year. Lets hope that continues.
He is more athletic than his body may seem, but he doesn’t have great defense. Let’s just say he is like Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel – he could make a nice soccer player for all the balls he boots. This may be a concern if he was in the National League, but alas, for once a defensively-challenged masher is in the American League. Like I said, he is athletic, but not fast, or known to be a base stealer. However, this year he has 11, which is near his career total. Not sure where this came from, but if he keeps this up it would be a pleasant addition to his already star laden future. He may not be Ryan Howard, but a Carlos Pena may be in the line (a Pena that actually gets a chance before bouncing around for a few years).
Look for Carter to get a call up this year and play an intriguing role in spring training next year. He could do something like Pablo Sandoval did/is doing this year. I would follow Carter as much as Stanton or other big boppers like Justin Smoak (even a Chris “K” Davis).
Tags: Chris Carter, James Simmons
July 29th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Thanks, Stephen! Let’s hope the youth movement can make the A’s relevant again soon.
July 29th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
chris carter!! my favorite minor league player
July 29th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
@Inertiatic: They are going to need them start sooner rather than later though. It’s going to be a rough few seasons before they all reach their primes. Until then, lets just hope Billy Beanes trades will work out for him.
@kevin: Glad I could tickle your fancy (wow, that sounded more gay than I thought it would, oops).
July 29th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
fwiw, this year’s Baseball Prospectus seemed to think Inoa was the Second Coming. and apparently the original spelling is “Ynoa” but according to Wikipedia, “somewhere along the line there was a mixup in the spelling.”
July 29th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
As you tote the A’s minor league system my hometown Rivercats got no-hit (one walk away from a perfect game) last night but a guy coming into the game with a 5.72 ERA. But as always the A’s have interesting prospects that make them fun to watch.
July 29th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
@Josh: That is how most highly tout prospecting works, a la Matt Wieters, Braun, Longoria, etc. Lets wait and see how Yona/Iona pans out in America
@Moonlight’s Grahams: And the Rays had a perfect game pitched against them too (granted by a better pitcher). It will interesting to see if they try to deal them for more major league ready help. Otherwise they are going to have to wait a few more years for a blockbuster trade because their player’s potential needs to play out before that can happen.
July 29th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Closer question- is Lindstrom going to get the job back soon?
I own Nunez.
Would it make sense to pick up Lindstrom now (dumping Wuertz and his awesome K rates)? Or wait on it a few days and hope no one else in my league does…
July 29th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Long-term keeper league: Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta or Aroldis Chapman?
@Hardcore Midget: Lindstrom will get the job back if healthy.
@pole: Gamel
July 29th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Wow. Freddy Sanchez for TIM ALDERSON.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
I’m glade I’m not a Giants fan right now – Sanchez’ empty average, large salary, and parade of chronic injuries (I say all that with love, being a Sanchez owner in two leagues) for their #4 prospect???
July 29th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@JR: Seriously… didn’t think they’d get that much for him! Dare I say it looks like a good day for the Pirates???
@JR: Insane
July 29th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
@bobbo: Hey, they need one every once and a while…
July 29th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@JR: Hahaha yeah, unfortunately they will probably let this crop of prospects grow for 2-3 years and then trade them all off for me AA players.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Rios for Shields? Thanks
@Ham: Rios
July 29th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Ah Harang.
How quickly hope dies.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
now for shortstop. who would you want out of:
erick aybar, izturis, beckham and barmes (terrible obp)
categories: r, hr, rbi, avg, obp, gidp, steals, errors
thanks
@Steve: Sorry, that sucks.
@paulzone: Beckham
July 29th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Inoa was a Dominican prospect, and the deal the A’s gave him was the richest that any non-Cuban international prospect has received.
Back when it was a big deal whether the A’s would sign him, he was considered one of the best arms a number of scouts had ever seen.
I’ll try to go back and find some links. There was a lot written about him on A’s Nation when it was big news.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
@JR: Definitely not worth it. This is going to be one of those, “What the HELL were you thinking?” moments in baseball history. I am truly dumbfounded. BLAH!!! A good move for the Pirates though… that is true GM fleecing if I ever saw it before.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
@Grey: anyone able to watch tillman pitch?let me know how he looks,i know jaba looking good at tb early
@AL KOHOLIC: Waiting for Greinke to finally get the O’s out.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
i have scutaro, peralta, and kendrick.
i need to drop one of them, which should go?
@black love: Drop Scutaro.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
jaba just buzzed 1 over and behind the head of longoria,this could get interesting
July 29th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Waiting to see Tillman here too…. Greinke is almost up to 30 pitches in the 1st.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Yikes I just switched over and saw the replay… who thinks Tex or ARod gets buzzed by Garza?
July 29th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
@bobbo: someone will
July 29th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
@bobbo: tex just got hit by garza,up and in
July 29th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Big Tex goes down… called that one.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
LOL at the whole Rays team at the rail waiting for a brawl…
July 29th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
@bobbo: yeah,im watching it,
July 29th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Tillman just gave up a bomb to Callaspo… oops
July 29th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
@bobbo: … and another to Olivo.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Tillman has looked so so through 3ip to me… his fastball looks good at 92-95, his change has made a few (including Butler) look silly, but he can’t get the breaking ball over for the life of him. Not getting in very good pitcher’s counts and making some location mistakes (some long fly balls)
July 29th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
YITES, Para 9 base runners in 1.2 innings,hope you let go of that one grey
July 29th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
@bobbo: im not watching the san diego game either ,but latos has a good game going
July 29th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
@Grey: beckham’s errors are scary for me…one of few categories I can make up some ground in…who would be your second choice, aybar?
July 29th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
who is next in line for saves if there is an issue with fuentes?
July 29th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
anyone picking up kuo for holds in the sp slot? he pitched on monday and reports say he clocked 95 mph in a 1-2-3 inning…
July 29th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Nice… I picked up Latos for the start today… might have to hold on to him for a while (even though I can’t get too excited about him dominating the anemic Reds offense).
July 29th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
@paulzone: I would 100% pick up Kuo for holds… but alas he’s taken in both of my holds leagues.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
@bobbo: yeah my reds suck like paullies mets but the kid looks good,i switched over to catch him pitching
July 29th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: hope that elbow can hold up down the stretch…i have troncoso too..dont like that much…at least LA wins a lot of games.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
@paulzone: i like kuo,actually drafted him in a non holds league,i figured 100 k`s from a rp is pretty nice but that didnt happen
@AL KOHOLIC: I got out of Parra a while ago.
@paulzone: Sure, Aybar’s fine.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Tillman is living way too high in the zone today… hope its just the jitters. If this were anyone but the Royals he’d have been knocked out already.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
please dont let jaba go out there for the 8th inning,,7 ip 2 hits 2 walks,put latos numbers in there 7-1-1 and i had a damn good night,picked up tillman but he isnt pitching for me,and im hoping fuentes and downs dont get in there to ruin a great night by my staff
July 29th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
anyone notice that jered weaver and billingsley have been awful over the last month?? both have era’s north of 6.00 and whip’s north of 1.40. ugh. any luck they finish strong?
July 29th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
@Grey: i was hoping so,,i bet a few bit on him tonight though
July 29th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
i dont own him but C.Q goes deep,im waiting to say that about the former crack-head,josh,tinkered with his swing in the offseason,da,hello josh,stamina not hitting was your only problem last year
July 29th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Grey, my team is low in Runs/SB and avg. who should I target?
I am in 2nd place in HR/RBI
Maybe I should post my team in forums, but for now, any players you like that fit that RUN/SB/AVG. mold?
I remember you saying buy Figgins, but not for avg/runs
July 29th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
@Grey: On a brighter note, every time I feel like I might be starting to lose a little faith in J-Up, he restores it.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
tell you what,im about done waiting on huff-n-puff,he`s killin me,might have to drop a pitcher and add a bat while i bench his azz
July 29th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
@AL KOHOLIC: Yet you still keep trying to trade me Huff and Hamilcrack for Utley…………
sigh
July 29th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
@BigFatHippo: You too?
July 29th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
@Steve: yup
He’s a Chronic Mastertrader, look it up in the glossary. It’s in Al’s honor.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
@BigFatHippo: hey he`s on greys buy list,so buy him,besides i threw in gallardo
@paulzone: Yeah, bit of a speed bump.
@Schatzi: Figgy’s good for average and Runs. Ichiro obviously too.
@Steve: Yeah, you know who I’m losing faith in? FraGu.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
ha,you gotta love those cardinals,tied it up off of broxton
July 29th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
@Grey: Hmm. He’s 7 for his last 21 – are you seeing something I’m unable to?
@Steve: Think he’s 2 for his last 11 vs. righties. He could always hit lefties, but he’s not always going to face them.
July 29th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
jim johnson with the save, two innings… precursor?
July 29th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
@Grey: Try a bit of Fred Lewis maybe?
@Tony Y: Might mean he’s next in line, but not a precursor necessarily.
@Steve: Hold for another day.
July 29th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Matt Cain you dirty ticker tease!
@Tom_Emanski: Ha!
July 29th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
I will give a recap at the end of the night about some of these questions and comments.
July 29th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
With news that Mujica is moving to the starting rotation, and while I thought it was a long shot, it seems rumor mill is heating up on Heath Bell getting traded, who is next in line in SD?
July 29th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
If Ervin Santana’s sittin on the free agent list and I’ve got guys like Brett Anderson and Mat Latos on my squad, should I take a stab at Erv, or just let him rot?
July 29th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
anyone here how bedards throwing session went today?
July 29th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
@Grey: you throwing stauffer at the reds tomorrow?
July 29th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
kendrick or lopez??
July 29th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
for 2nd base
@Ham: Gregerson
@jbatkins: Rot
@AL KOHOLIC: It hurts him to lift his arm. I’m not throwing Stauffer.
@black love: Kendrick
July 29th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
@Grey: thanks,with peavy on my d.l should i drop him or bedard for a gregerson or frasor
July 29th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Halladay and Justin Upton for Wright and Bay.
Which side wins?
July 29th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
@Nick0rz: At this point in the season, it depends on if you need the pitching or help at 3B. I would take Upton over Bay, but barely, and Halladay for Wright is probably a fair swap. If you need the hitting, take the Wright side. And if you need the pitching… well, you can fill in the rest.
July 29th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
@jbatkins: A-Rod has been holding down the 3B position for me, and Bay’s also riding pine while I ride the Garret Jones wave.
I think I should take the Upton side, just trying to get a second opinion if Im hating too much on Bay and Wright for their slumping.
@AL KOHOLIC: Drop Peavy for Gregerson for just tomorrow then pickup Frasor if Bell isn’t traded.
@Nick0rz: It’s fair on either side, depends on needs. I’d take the Halladay side.
July 29th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
@Grey: Would you prefer Gaudin vs Mil or Niese vs Col?…
I know they’re both not good but I’m goin for IP and Ks but trying to avoid Losses as well.
@john: Niese
@john: Sorry, meant Gaudin.
July 29th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
@Grey: haha, alright. thanks.
July 29th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
man i wanna drop cecil for gregerson, but i already dropped de la rosa for cecil last sunday, and would hate to lose both since de la rosa got snapped back up, but i could really use the saves in my league and my staff is sick…
thoughts… drop cecil still?
@Tony Y: Eh, if you need saves, go for it. But it’s liable to a pointless drop.
July 29th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
@Grey: I have Frasor on a couple of teams. Better to have Gregorson?
July 29th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
man if i was smart i woulda just dumped BELTRAN a month ago, what a POS…. i’m still thinking about it other than he’s “trying” to push thru….. sucks. what a waste….
July 30th, 2009 at 8:03 am
@Lava: Oops. Must have remembered that wrong. Scouts and agents tout who they represent all the time. Just because that is what they “think” to get the money, doesn’t necessarily mean that is how Iona is going to play out. It will be years before he is even on most person’s radar. I have seen comparisons to Felix Hernandez, but its not really a reputable source. Needless to say, Inoa/Ynoa is too long away to speculate on talent alone.
@paulzone: I am really hesitant to pick up Kuo, and I drafted him in a 20 team league with holds.
— I am a bit late about Latos and Tillman as Grey already mentioned those. I would own Latos before Tillman, only because Tillman gets the shaft by playing in the AL East. Look for matchup starts for Tillman and Home starts for Latos.