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As we enter the busiest week for the world famous Razzball commenter leagues,  I think it’s important to look back unto the days of yester-year and let us not forget that numbers sometimes, very rarely… OKAY, they lie a lot!  But usually after massaging them, numbers are gluttons for attention.   They always wanna be gone over, hen-pecked, and prodded.  Just like your mother.  RCL leagues are no different, and the SAGNOF’s general audience is those of us in these type leagues, looking for a special boost to their team, whether it be a streaming option, growing trend, or just some divine intervention that I say something useful. So with the help of the RCL guru, Matt Truss.  I got some info that will help you analyze your stats as you peer onto your team for projecting steals and how you stand in the category.  Because going into battle knowing what you need to compete is, according to G.I. Joe, “half the battle”.  But since we already know, does that mean the battle is already over and we are just competing and arguing with ourselves?  Confused?  Me too!  Well here is some less confusing info that is straight to the point with numbers and stuff…  Cheers!

  • Last years average league winning SB category total was 187.
  • The overall SB leader last year was Team Lion with 235 (highest total ever in an RCL was 270 in 2014).
  • The lowest winning number in a league was 152, by some dude from West Boston. (It’s Prospector Ralph by the way, and there is no real West Boston.)
  • The steal as a stat was in shock decline before a slight upturn to 2,537 last year.  The previous four years in total were 2,505 (2015), 2,764 (2014), 2,693 (2013), and 3,229 (2012).
  • Oddly enough the OBP last year of .322 was it’s highest since 2010, where it was .325 and they had 2,959 SB’s.

So my take on all that?  The trend to stream SB’s is getting harder to predict and is the worst thing to try and stream for.  Drafting guys who can guarantee you the magic number of any-wheres between 180-190 total SB’s in your league should guarantee you the top side of the point total.  So plan for 150 on draft day and figure the other 20% will come through the waiver wire.  Anymore than trying to accrue that number is taking away from other numbers on your team if you draft strictly from SAGNOF standpoint.  Of course, outliers exist where the top guys meet or exceed expectations.  Here are some guys making waves and notions towards more at bats this year with some sneaky steal potential…

Andrew Toles – Making people forget how to spell Andre either, ether, ethier.  Could be a squeaky clean 10/10 guy with a decent amount of runs scored when the lineup flips over.  Only caveat is that he may sit versus some left-handed hitters, so find a nice streamable RH option that should be rostered and boom.

Mallex Smith – Smith is going to make the opening day roster because Colby has spoiled… again.  Speed for days. Just worry about the OBP not being up to snuff and having him try to steal the dugout.

Raul Mondesi – Has the gig in KC.  No word if the Sunshine band has any employment opportunities though.  His one usable asset is his speed, and he needs to grow into his batting ability.

Ben Revere – Revere is already going to be in a platoon with Cameron Maybin.  Limiting not only his ceiling but the entire Maybin baseball playing family.  If you put them together, they probably steal what Jarrod Dyson does all year.  Crazy to think about in halves but it could be true…

 

 

   
  1. Steve says:
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    How many bases do you project DeShields stealing now that he seems to have a daily gig?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Steve: 25-30 on the tentative side. 45 plus if this is real

  2. Sport says:
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    Hey Smokey thank you for all the SAGNOF help.

    I have Seigrist, Barraclough, and Capps in a 10 team 6×6. Are those safe guys to go with for holds? Or should I trol the free agent list?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sport: for the start of the season absolutely. But holds holds no love. don’t get married to guys, pitch twice then ditch if they aren’t get you the counting stats.

  3. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Odds on Treinen getting the Nats closing gig? Worth dropping Hector Rondon for a $1 faab bet?

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Smokey: on the SP lottery ticket side – Bundy, Corbin

        On the RP side – Bush, Capps

        Maybe one of those SPs is the right call? Or Capps…

  4. CUBS WIN CUBS WIN !!! says:
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    So in a 12 team mixed h2h al/nl points league minus 1 for a K . The pitchers are favored slightly over the hitters……I have the 1st pick should I take Kershaw? the last 2 years 9 and 10 pitchers were taken total in the 1st 2 rounds. Hers how the 1st 2 rounds went last year to give you a idea.

    Clayton Kershaw Paul Goldschmidt Mike Trout Bryce Harper Jake Arrieta Zack Greinke Josh Donaldson Max Scherzer Chris Sale Anthony Rizzo Edwin Encarnacion Carlos Correa Giancarlo Stanton *Madison Bumgarner Jose Bautista RF Jose Altuve Felix Hernandez Andrew McCutchen Buster Posey Dallas Keuchel Manny Machado David Price Nolan Arenado Miguel Cabrera and kris bryant 1st pick round 3……. Last year I had the 1st pick as well and my 1st 3 picks were Kershaw, Miggy and Kris Bryant

    Based on how last year went who would you draft 1st pick in rd 1 and 24th and 25th for example . Being from Chicago and in a Chicago league obviously The Cubs and Sox get drafted a lil higher than most leagues probably….. Thanks for your help Grey !! Good luck this year.

  5. Joeg414 says:
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    Can Cesar Hernandez be a 30+ SB this year?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Joeg414: sure he can, but I think 30 is his cap

  6. Fausto

    FaustoCarmona says:
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    As a man with sagnof permanently inked on the side of my hand your think I wouldn’t need help in this area but alas I’ve 1save and 1steal question for you .
    Holding Jeanmar (phi) should I grab Neris off waivers as a cuff just in case? ( Have 2 donkeycorns as my 1- 2 rp ahead of the Phi situation fyi)

    Better sb option H. Perez(mil), Jankowski, Margot, or T. Anderson? (Got villar way late in the draft but need 1 more guy with legs)

    Thanks.

    • Cyler says:
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      @FaustoCarmona: I would grab Neris and Margot.

      • JoeC says:
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        @Smokey: If Margot is already taken, who would you grab from what’s left of OP’s list? Jankowski?

  7. Sam says:
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    Which side (12 team 5×5 roto c, 1b, 2B, 3B, ss, mi, ci, 5of, Util, 9P, 5Bn):

    Votto/Kemp/Snell/Cotton or CarGo/Kenley/Salazar/Drury?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sam: Votto side

  8. Chucky says:
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    Cargo

  9. Chuck Norris says:
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    This is from Raul Mondesi’s MLB Page:

    “Raul Adalberto Mondesi
    Born: 7/27/1995 in Los Angeles, CA
    Debut: 7/26/2016
    Relationship(s): son of Raul Mondesi, brother of Raul Mondesi Jr.”

    Son of Raul and brother of Raul Jr. …..so Papa Raul named two sons after himself….bold move…

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Chuck Norris: Latino George Foreman situation going on

  10. brett says:
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    smokey

    need holds thoughts on Vincent, grilli, room. Do you think Montgomery is good for holds as the lefty in the cubs bullpen or do they go to strop? Any other under the radar guys you like?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @brett: Like Vincent and think he ascends to teh first chair behind Diaz, Grilli is best RP arm behind Osuna and is a sneaky good own because of it. I think Koji is the LH guy that Madden will use, yes I know he is RH but his splits against LH are startling. Check out my other preseason posts I listed them in 2-3 different posts

      • Brett says:
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        @Smokey: stupid auto correct last guy was romo what are your thoughts on him for holds?

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @Brett: love Romo, will be used a ton. Both him and Dayton are both ownable

  11. Jensen says:
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    I have Diaz, Oh, and Colome for closers. No other RP on my roster since we don’t count holds. 12 team league. Shawn Kelly and Ottavino are available as well as every setup guy not named Miller or Betances. Who’s your first add?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Jensen: Nate Jones

  12. Ron Jeremy says:
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    Yo Smokey,

    I’m in a roto league with Holds. Pitching categories are: Ks, ERA, WHIP, QS, and NSV.

    Have F. Rivero, K. Siegrist, D. Betances, A. Miller, K. Giles, and S. Dyson as my current RP. Someone recently dropped D. Hudson.

    Drop Siegrist to add Hudson for the SAGNOF and because I already have Rivero or Hold? Limited moves, for what it’s worth.

    Thx.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ron Jeremy: think I got this on the other post, but hold Siegrist

  13. Brett says:
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    Smokey you know steals and holds so I have come for help!

    2 team league daily roster moves, 6×6 with OPS and hold the extra categories. We keep 5.

    C Sal Perez
    1b C Santana
    2b Travis
    SS Story Keeper
    3b Machado Keeper
    CI Bregman Keeper
    MI Peraza
    OF Harper Keeper
    OF Bryant Keeper
    OF Polonco
    OF Benintendi
    OF Buxton
    Util Broxton

    SP DeGrom
    SP Maeda
    SP T Walker
    SP J Ross
    SP Velazquez
    P Carlos Rodon
    P Nova
    RP Giles
    RP Will Harris
    RP Neris

    B Kepler
    B Moncada
    B Dahl

    With Rodon and Dahl going on the DL I can add two guys. I’m considering Deshields, Capps, Romo and Vincent. Can you rank the adds. Is deshields worth adding? could he be a potential to trade for a better player? Only cost with Deshields is I can’t play him every day like I can with a reliever.

    Thanks

    • Brett says:
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      @Brett: 12 team league.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Brett: Deshields and Romo

  14. Milarky says:
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    Hey Smokey, now that Treinen has been named closer for the Nats, and it looks like Holland is the guy for the Rockies, which tier do you put each of them in your closer tiers? Does Holland just slide into the “Employed” category where Ottavino was? And I’m assuming you may have had Kelley in the “Brain Freeze” section more because of the uncertain situation.

    Your rankings and comments are appreciated!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Milarky: employed for Treinen, and Holland i wanna see what he does in first few before determining

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