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The goal of a stat is to maximize it from the jump, and you could plan it that way even further on draft day.  There are certain pitchers that have a greater propensity to allow the stolen base, and exploiting that by originally drafting those players on draft day to get a jump on streaming isn’t an awful idea.  I used this feature multiple times  last year, so a preseason refresher is never a bad thing to prep you for the upcoming season.  The one bad theory that works against you when trying to stream is that some of these pitchers are fantasy stalwarts in the starting pitcher department.  The biggest name being Noah Syndergaard.  Because he is a good deterrent of actual OBPa, the stolen base becomes a risky proposition to try and gamble on with him taking the mound, most likely twice in the first six games. Because in actuality OBPa is a huge thing, because you can’t steal first. Picking on a pitcher isn’t the only way to go about it either as teams with poor catchers could also benefit you for the streaming guessing game.  The best thing here is that usually the first three days of the year have truncated schedules so picking and choosing your options could be the jump start you need to dominate a category from day one.  Here is a handy chart with last year’s stolen base totals, stolen base opportunities, and OBPa.  The three key factors to see who is easy to Winona…

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Name SB’s SB Opps OBPa
Noah Syndergaard 48 239 .287
Jimmy Nelson 30 300 .361
Jon Lester 28 212 .268
Ubaldo Jimenez 26 230 .354
Jake Arrieta 23 275 .277
Cole Hamels 23 296 .319
Steven Matz 20 180 .306
Jered Weaver 20 265 .346
Gerrit Cole 18 187 .345
James Shields 18 293 .376
Carlos Rodon 17 261 .332
Julio Teheran 17 220 .275

 

  • The Mets with Noah and Steven Matz on this list leads me to speculative adds from the Braves and Marlins in the first two series… it makes Brandon Phillips, J.T Realmuto and deeper options like Jace Peterson or even the hit king Ichiro Suzuki.
  • The Champs face off against division rivals Cardinals and Brew Crew.  Making Kolten Wong very sassy to start the year and Orlando Arcia could fill in nicely in the middle infidel spots.
  • While on the other side of Chi-town, the White Sox starters include Shields and Rodon making Tigers and Twins look a bit shinier.  Guys I would look at on the Shields and Rodon starts are pretty nice in this game, because they won’t be owned as much as the other teams. Eddie Rosario, whomever wins the Tigers CF spot and even Jose Iglesias are the other ones.
   
  1. Nick says:
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    Hey Smokey SAGNOF king !!

    Need 2 words from you:
    1. Dynasty trade: i already have Villar and Lindor at SS , and i need good SP
    i give Swanson – i get Roark + Carpenter, drop Shae (DL?).
    is that OK? i think so

    2. i have BIG power, i need speed : i have Inciarte now, and i’m concerned about his HR / Rbis
    instead i’d like to pick Margot,
    but Janko, Rajai, KKiermaier are also on FA
    (and i dropped HPerez to pick up Schoop @util !)
    stay Ender or go manuel ? or…

    Nick the French stick

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Nick: 1. yes 2. KK is the get

  2. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Smokey, would love to see a follow up on how these ‘opportunities’ pan out.
    Last year, end of seaason, I posted this to Rudy (I had been using his SB success Rate chart):
    “Hey, I worked this SB chart hard for the last MONTH and got very marginal positive impact. Just my two-bits: I would put my development effort in other areas.”
    Rudy’s response:
    “Agreed regarding stolen bases. I did incorporate pitcher into the Hittertron SB projections and it seemed to have minor impact overall. I do think it’s most helpful for the handful of pitchers who are awesome/awful at holding guys on. But streaming for SBs is not as enjoyable or lucrative as for HRs.”

    I personally found it easier to get production from trolling HRs than SBs.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @simply fred: I agree the rewards may be better to scour for tatters instead. Not everything in baseball stat wise is spreadsheets and number computing though. I’d like to be privy to this chart if you keep it in season.

  3. JJ says:
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    Hey Smokey,

    would you still be grabbing Glover as a late round RP or would you go Holland? I like glovers potential long term but am thinking that the rockies might go with Holland and his experience in the 9th.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @JJ: Holland for now, Glover for the better team and future

      • JJ says:
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        @Smokey:
        How about now? lol. I would either have to drop Glasnow or Holland to grab glover. It IS a keeper league but we only keep 10.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @JJ: I was always in favor of Glover, just depending on your risk or go for it attitude.

          • JJ says:
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            @Smokey:
            So in a keeper, would you drop Holland or Glasnow to grab Glover. I like Glasnows upside but I think that he may still start the year in the minors. That being said, he would probably get snapped up by another manager pretty quick.

            • Smokey

              Smokey says:
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              @JJ: Holland isn’t guaranteed anything go that route. Koda upside is greatre then Hollands year long success i think

              • JJ says:
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                @Smokey:
                Cool. Thanks for your help

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