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Draft day is usually the highlight of your night, granted, if there isn’t a killer Magic the Gathering tournament going down.  Here at SAGNOF central, we use high tech devices (protractors) and technology (metal detectors) to help you be more smarter.  Smartest?  Most smart?  One of those.  The chase for draft day steals is always a ball and rank-him affair, the top guys are the top guys because they contribute in multiple categories, not just the thievery department.  But what about the guys who don’t?  That, my friends, is SAGNOF.  I am going to take you through a look at some of the steal-only guys and their draft day ADP’s currently to see what values exist and who is drafting what, where, and why.  Because we all like a bargain, it’s why Marshall’s and T.J. Maxx exist, they are the “slight defect consumer bin” for shopping, where as these guys are the one-off for a 5×5 contribution.  Get the correlation? Good.  The king of the one-category right now is Billy Hamilton.  Yes he will score runs, but his main contribution to your team is basically hoping he wins SB’s all by his lonesome.  His current ADP across multiple formats ranges from 60th overall to about 90 in some obtuse cases.  Neither are fantastic, and I think his value is somewhere in the middle. Yes, he is going to steal you some bases, but on the high-end, is he worth a 5-6th round draft pick in your draft?  Maybe, when you consider their are a ton of misfit toys being drafted around him like Todd Frazier, Mark Trumbo, and most of the back-end first tiered closers, Britton and Melancon.  It’s funny that the conundrum and research says that people are drafting both ends of the S in AGNOF at about the same point on draft day.  So now that you know who and where Billy Lin Miranda is being drafted, let’s see where some of the updated mid-round values at steals.

Jose Peraza – I wanted to make this whole post about him and make a comparison stat-wise to basically what Dee Gordon is going to give you.  Same position, same iffy expectations for their team.  Now, would you rather gamble at Dee in the 5th round or Peraza in the 12th?  That is the current realm on draft day.  Peraza has his spot now, he will be in the lineup every single day.  Be given every opportunity to either hit lead-off because Billy can’t or he is going to hit down in the order ahead of the pitcher most likely.  Either way, I think it helps him.  He isn’t going to give you Villar power, but should score close to 75 and steal you 50.  That is basically what Dee is going to give you at a 6-7 round discount.  I love Peraza more then Hamilton because unlike Billy, Jose can get himself on base.  Remember, you can’t steal first.

Carlos Gomez – It is a Tale of Two Cities…”it was the best of time it was the best of time”, and both were in the grand state of Texas.  The biggest question mark here is which Car-go will be showing up.  The one that looked unhappy in Houston or the one who seemed to find his niche in Arlington.  His splits last year post trade are pretty Jekyll and Hyde.  Particularly in the OBP department.  Given that he looks like a better lead-off option than Choo, he could be a draft day swoon at his current OF 40 draft status.  If he gets the keys to drive the Rangers line-up, I would expect him to steal 25 easy, and his bat isn’t a slouch either.  Great bargain for draft slot right now.

Keon Broxton – Keon keeps klimbing, should be what’s going down. He has basically gained a round every week over the past three weeks of draft ADP research.  His major problem for me is that he isn’t going to be leading off on most days.  But that may help his numbers across the board and expand him form a SAGNOF darling to a 5×5 all around contributor.  When he finally broke through into the Brewers line-up, which wasn’t really til basically July 1s,t he had a OBP of .395 for the ROS.  Intrigue and growth is spurning the draft love.

Odubel Herrera – Villar, Betts, Goldschmidt, Trout, Segura, and Altuve.  Only players plus Herrera that went 15Hr’s/25 Sb’s and had an OBP of over .350.  If I was knit-picking one stat sure it would look odd but those are some sexy ass names and basically 1/3 of the first round.  There is more to squeeze out of Odubel this year, as he is still young enough to develop more power.  Moving down in the order is not a good thing, it’s a great thing as he stole more bases from hitting second.

   
  1. Whit says:
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    Haven’t seen much analysis on Jarrod Dyson. If he leads off for Seattle it seems he is a lock for at minimum Billy Hamilton’s stats at a last round price?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Whit: I wrote about him a month ago as a stellar steal, steal guy. The fact that he has never eclipsed 350 plate appearances makes him extra sneaky

  2. Foul balls says:
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    Would you drop Devon Travis to pick up Carlos Gomez currently have segura at 2b with carpenter as a back up , it’s a h2h points league?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Foul balls: The other Car-go shouldn’t be on waivers, find a way.

  3. Bill says:
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    did you mix up hamilton and dee gordon in your blurb on peraza?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Bill: nope, Dee and Hamilton similar in adp right now, i made the both play second base comparison that is the give away that I didn’t. Unless I can’t read so good

  4. Sport says:
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    Thanks for the write ups and rankings Smokey. I took your advice and joined a league that has holds. It’s my first time. It’s also my first time in a 10 team league and it’s a yahoo dynasty as well, so there is an inning cap at 1400. Could I get some help please on holds/saves strategy on how many of each pitcher I should try to roster. In a ten team league do I look at three closers and three holds guys?

    We keep 30 from year to year and the team I took over is loaded with closers and finished last in holds last year so I know I need to transition to better balance.

    Thanks for all
    The help.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sport: target the first chair guys on the teams you currently have closers for. via trade or draft. 3 and 3 is a good mix

      • Sport says:
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        @Smokey:

        Thank you. I really appreciate it.

  5. Agnomen says:
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    Shh. Stop telling people about Obudel… Odubel… Olubed… whatever. I want him on the sly, and you’re making him sound as good as people don’t realize he is, on a team that people think of as bad, but is building up to a strong Astroization.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Agnomen: ok won’t say another word about him

  6. Darek says:
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    What do you think about Jankowski and Margot? Who gets more ABs?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Darek: Unless Jaws starts hitting Lh better he is going to get benched more then the growing talent of Margot. i think Margot gets 80-100 more plate appearances. Love them both as good SAGNOF options Jankowski will be a shuttled in and out guy alot i think by a ton of owners based on match-ups and such.

  7. The Great Knoche says:
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    You were right on with Peraza comparison. My first draft, Gordon went at 53, and Hamilton actually didnt go until 79, I managed to get Peraza in the 12th. Quite a value for 10-15 less steals than Billy and the same player as Gordon especially if he gets to top of order.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @The Great Knoche: Coool i like when I make up stuff on the fly and it gets backed up by actual information….lol. Thanks for the read!

  8. Chicken Shack says:
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    Peraza went in the fifth round in my current NFBC draft.
    I just grabbed Raj in the 13th and went Nunez back in the 8th.
    How many steals do you think I banked with those 2 dudes?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Chicken Shack: the goods is out on Peraza in leagues where smart people roam, though he fell to me in the 10th in one draft recently. Rajai, 35 – 40 and Nunez 25-28 are about my guesses. I think you did good with both of those guys as steal stat fillers, though I am not sure Nunez retains all his pre-trade value from last year

      • Chicken Shack says:
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        @Smokey:
        It’s crazy. Kiermier is starting to get some SB attention and Andrus were guys I had targeted and whiffed that went earlier than ADP.
        Josh Harrison & Margot are later targets.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @Chicken Shack: Love KK this year, def target Margot

  9. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Like the Odubel stat. Very interesting. As far as others, would you rank Rajai over Dyson? And where would Keirmaier and Jankowski fit in there?

    And deeper – would you take Ezequiel Carrera over Austin Jackson?

    Thanks smoke

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Rajai and Dyson are close and wouldn’t be mad at grabbing either. Janks and KK are a step below them in SAGNOF-dom. Carrera until A-Jax can get some playing time, both will struggle to get tons of chances with what the Indians and Jays have.

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Smokey: love it – I’m sure other folks wouldn’t even try to hash up Carrera and Jackson but I appreciate the take. helps as always man!

  10. dubjay says:
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    Hey Smokey,
    Looking to grab one more RP to fill out my pitching staff. I currently have Chapman and Giles but would like one more speculative save guy.
    Which one of these would you grab?
    H.STREET
    K.BARRACLOUGH
    B.ZIEGLER
    G.HOLLAND
    D.HUDSON
    B.TREINEN
    K.GLOVER
    S.CASILLA
    A.VIZCAINO
    thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @dubjay: Glover Lang

      • dubjay says:
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        @Smokey:
        Is that a play on clubber lang? or a typo?

        • dubjay says:
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          @dubjay:
          You think he actually has a chance of taking the closing gig?

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Smokey: and now I have Lil Flip in my head. Reppin clover lannnd

  11. hothot says:
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    Standard 5×5 League: Carter Capps or Koda Glover?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @hothot: Oooof tough one…I would lean Glover based on team being better

      • hothot says:
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        @Smokey: Thanks.

        Any reason to keep Sergio Romo (also have Jansen fwiw) in standard 5x5s? Or easy drop for Capps?

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @hothot: Capps

  12. FreshMeat says:
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    If you need steals, would you trade Kemp for Gomez?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @FreshMeat: Kemp is realyl good at filling the stat line would lean him

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