Draft day is usually the highlight of your night, granted, if there isn’t a killer Magic the Gathering tournament going down. Here at SAGNOF central, we use high tech devices (protractors) and technology (metal detectors) to help you be more smarter. Smartest? Most smart? One of those. The chase for draft day steals is always a ball and rank-him affair, the top guys are the top guys because they contribute in multiple categories, not just the thievery department. But what about the guys who don’t? That, my friends, is SAGNOF. I am going to take you through a look at some of the steal-only guys and their draft day ADP’s currently to see what values exist and who is drafting what, where, and why. Because we all like a bargain, it’s why Marshall’s and T.J. Maxx exist, they are the “slight defect consumer bin” for shopping, where as these guys are the one-off for a 5×5 contribution. Get the correlation? Good. The king of the one-category right now is Billy Hamilton. Yes he will score runs, but his main contribution to your team is basically hoping he wins SB’s all by his lonesome. His current ADP across multiple formats ranges from 60th overall to about 90 in some obtuse cases. Neither are fantastic, and I think his value is somewhere in the middle. Yes, he is going to steal you some bases, but on the high-end, is he worth a 5-6th round draft pick in your draft? Maybe, when you consider their are a ton of misfit toys being drafted around him like Todd Frazier, Mark Trumbo, and most of the back-end first tiered closers, Britton and Melancon. It’s funny that the conundrum and research says that people are drafting both ends of the S in AGNOF at about the same point on draft day. So now that you know who and where Billy Lin Miranda is being drafted, let’s see where some of the updated mid-round values at steals.
Jose Peraza – I wanted to make this whole post about him and make a comparison stat-wise to basically what Dee Gordon is going to give you. Same position, same iffy expectations for their team. Now, would you rather gamble at Dee in the 5th round or Peraza in the 12th? That is the current realm on draft day. Peraza has his spot now, he will be in the lineup every single day. Be given every opportunity to either hit lead-off because Billy can’t or he is going to hit down in the order ahead of the pitcher most likely. Either way, I think it helps him. He isn’t going to give you Villar power, but should score close to 75 and steal you 50. That is basically what Dee is going to give you at a 6-7 round discount. I love Peraza more then Hamilton because unlike Billy, Jose can get himself on base. Remember, you can’t steal first.
Carlos Gomez – It is a Tale of Two Cities…”it was the best of time it was the best of time”, and both were in the grand state of Texas. The biggest question mark here is which Car-go will be showing up. The one that looked unhappy in Houston or the one who seemed to find his niche in Arlington. His splits last year post trade are pretty Jekyll and Hyde. Particularly in the OBP department. Given that he looks like a better lead-off option than Choo, he could be a draft day swoon at his current OF 40 draft status. If he gets the keys to drive the Rangers line-up, I would expect him to steal 25 easy, and his bat isn’t a slouch either. Great bargain for draft slot right now.
Keon Broxton – Keon keeps klimbing, should be what’s going down. He has basically gained a round every week over the past three weeks of draft ADP research. His major problem for me is that he isn’t going to be leading off on most days. But that may help his numbers across the board and expand him form a SAGNOF darling to a 5×5 all around contributor. When he finally broke through into the Brewers line-up, which wasn’t really til basically July 1s,t he had a OBP of .395 for the ROS. Intrigue and growth is spurning the draft love.
Odubel Herrera – Villar, Betts, Goldschmidt, Trout, Segura, and Altuve. Only players plus Herrera that went 15Hr’s/25 Sb’s and had an OBP of over .350. If I was knit-picking one stat sure it would look odd but those are some sexy ass names and basically 1/3 of the first round. There is more to squeeze out of Odubel this year, as he is still young enough to develop more power. Moving down in the order is not a good thing, it’s a great thing as he stole more bases from hitting second.