Doozy’s on line two. Doozy, “Yeah, I got no words for this trade.” Holy Crapballs on line three. Holy Crapballs, “What’s there to say?” You’ve Got To Be Kidding’s on line four. You’ve Got To Be Kidding, “Hey, I’m here with Doozy… Hold on, I’m gonna merge the calls with Holy Crapballs. Okay, HC, you there? You’re on with Doozy and You’ve Got To Be Kidding. What do you make of this trade?” Holy Crapballs, “Well–Shoot, Are You Effin’ Joking is buzzing in.” Recently, I went over my Wil Myers 2013 fantasy. Yeah, that’s pretty much toast. Set a fire to it. Not literally. It’s on your computer. The Royals are basically the guy who held onto his virginity for thirty years then woke up one day and said, “Eh, I’m going to a hooker.” Wow. I’m speechless. Sure, they have Frenchy. But, um, it’s Frenchy. Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery were only, what? A few months away? Sure, Montgomery’s lost some luster, but Odorizzi’s still a top prospect. He could be Wade Davis this year. Maybe Shields next year. Wil Myers, though, well Wil (almost stutterer!) is the meow’s cat. I wonder if the Orioles wish they had Erik Bedard still to trade for Myers and others. Wil Myers is ready to contribute and the Rays don’t hold back their prospects. He’s starting on Opening Day in the majors unless something unforeseen happens. As I said in that Wil Myers fantasy post, he’s a number three hitter, and a damn good one. He’s not going to give us a Trout-type rookie year, but those only come around once in never. He doesn’t possess blazing speed like Trout. He’s a 30+ homer, 110+ RBIs, .300+ average guy in his prime. Think easily fantasy 2nd round value numbers when he hits his groove. In October when I thought he’d start the year in Triple-A, I gave him the line of 40/18/50/.280/5. Now, I’ll up that to a full season of at-bats and 62/24/72/.277/8 with upside for more. Yeah, he plays in shallow, three-outfield fantasy leagues. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:
James Shields – Poor guy. Now he has to contend (bad word choice) with the Royals. He’s gonna forever be known as the guy the Royals gave Wil Myers away for (and Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi — Jesus!). In 2011, he had an xFIP of 3.25. In 2012, he had a xFIP of 3.24. In 2011, he had a K-rate of 8.12. In 2012, he had a K-rate of 8.82. In 2011, he had an ERA of 2.82. In 2012, he might’ve had a better year even though his ERA was 3.52. That’s the good news. The bad news is his Home ERA in his career is 3.33, and his Away ERA is 4.54. Sure, his Fenway ERA was 5.86 and Yankee Stadium ERA was 6.35, but his Kaufman Stadium ERA is 6.38, his Progressive Field ERA is 4.44, his Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome ERA is even 3.79. The only place he’s had success is in Comerica. I was going to like Shields this year. Now, I’m probably not messing with him. I’ll give him the 2013 line of 13-10/3.77/1.26/198.
Wade Davis – The best thing about Wade Davis on the Royals is he’ll make Ervin Santana feel better about himself. He’ll more than likely be thrust back into a starting role where he showed less-than-optimal results. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 9-10/4.22/1.34/110. To appeal to our college-aged readers, UC Davis, U Stay Away.
Zack Greinke – If the new Dodgers’ ownership sole goal is to successfully move down the Google results for ‘Magic Johnson contracts’ they are doing an admirable job. Forget the Doyers, they’re the Dollars. So, now we know what Isiah Thomas has been up to. He’s printing money in Magic’s basement. “Yo, Magic, check out this hundred I made with a portrait of us kissing at half court.” Gotta give it to Sabean. He may have a penchant for guys five years past their prime, but at least he’s not building his team like the 2007 Yankees. In 2010 while with the Brewers, Greinke had his best season peripheral-wise. He had his lowest xFIP (2.56), highest K-rate (10.54) and lowest percentage of contact made for all pitches (75.8%). He was undone by homers. Miller Park ranked number one for all stadiums last year for homers hit, and tenth in 2011. Dodger Stadium ranked 19th last year. Miller Park in 2011 had a BABIP of .302 and Dodger Stadium had a .289 BABIP. Last year at home, Brewers pitchers had a .302 BABIP and Dodgers pitchers had a .271. Last year for runs, Miller Park ranked 10th; Dodger Stadium 22nd. I didn’t touch Greinke’s time on the Angels, because I’m already at apples and oranges with Brewers vs. the Dodgers. Angels to Dodgers is apples to kiwis with the league difference. I’m gonna go out on a very sturdy limb and say Greinke likes to pitch in the National League and won’t mind pitching in Dodger Stadium. If we don’t see one of the best Greinke years in 2013, I’ll eat my hat, and that hat is a floppy Diane Keaton one. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 16-8/2.97/1.12/215.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – The South Korean phenom signed with the Dodgers, too. That’s the South Korean phenom NOT known for riding imaginary horses. Shoot, maybe the Gangnam Style guy signed with the Dodgers too. Or make that Psy-igned. That gives the Dodgers Kershaw, Greinke, Beckett, Billingsley, Lilly, Capuano, Harang and Ryu. I’m guessing the Dodgers know Bills won’t be available due to an elbow injury. Though, they could just Isiah make some new Bills. And Kershaw could have hip problems. In South Korea, Ryu had a 2.80 ERA over 7 seasons. Scouts have said he’s probably an MLB draft first round talent. Ryu serious? Yes, I am. He’s 25 years old and should be entering his prime. He throws a 90 MPH fastball with a slow curve, tight slider and an excellent changeup, according to sources familiar with him. Ryu familiar? I’m not, no. Bob Engle, the Dodgers international scout, compared him to David Wells. I totally believe that was meant as a compliment. Ryu doesn’t look like he’s missed many feedings of kimchi. He’s a chunky-physique’d, control-minded lefty like Wells was. Because of his park and his ability to command his pitches, I’m gonna say he’ll beat Darvish’s first year in the bigs for ratios, but come well short of him for Ks. I’ll put his line at 14-10/3.55/1.14/165. I’ll admit that I’m guessing a bit because of my (and everyone’s) unfamiliarity with Ryu.
Mark Reynolds – The Indians signed Mini Donkey to a one-year deal. Mini could plan in Japan for the Morimoto Iron Chefs and his value wouldn’t change. (He would be better fed though.) For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 79/29/88/.226/6.
Brandon McCarthy – After being had for Jarrod Parker, the Diamondbacks are trying to exact some sort of revenge by signing ex-A’s pitcher, McCarthy. I bet he can’t wait until the series in June when he can get the Reds, if only Trumbo was traded there. McCarthy moves to an easier division, but a worse park. Push. He has the ability to help with ratios, but hurt in Ks. Kick, Push, Coast… From 2011 to 2012, he walked more guys, struck out fewer, had an ERA almost a full run lower than his xFIP and was much worse at causing ground balls. Pushing ahead, he’s an injury-prone, fantasy number three to four. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 10-7/3.64/1.20/117 in 170 IP. This could also spell doom for Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs, that’s until McCarthy gets hurt.
Ryan Ludwick – Re-signed with the Reds. Across the board, 2009 looks to be Ludwick’s true talent level: 63/22/97/.265/4. He’s nowhere near the 37-homer guy that he was in 2008, and he’s not as bad as the Petco-fueled 13-homer, .237-hitting guy in 2011 when it looked like Ludwick was decomposing. (pun point!) Last year, he went 53/26/80/.275 in Great American. Depending on where he bats in the order (I have my arthritic fingers firmly crossed that Frazier bats clean-up), Ludwick should be good for around those stats again. I’ll give him the line of 57/24/77/.267/1.
Michael Young – Heads to the Phils. Ironically, the Young move makes it seem like the Phillies are trying to get older. We’ll call them the Out of Gas Gang. “Yo, Utley, did you do my TV Guide crossword?” “Sorry, I was just gonna fill in ‘Tool Time’ and one thing led to another.” Charlie Manuel received the Young news enthusiastically. At least, we think it was enthusiastic, no one’s 100% sure what he said. One thing that Young gives that can’t be said for the rest of the aging Phils, he stays healthy. Only once in the last 11 years has he failed to reach 600 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he’s on the downward slope of his career. Now, if he passes ten homers and .300, it would be seen as a pleasant surprise. He makes Crapolanco look like he’s got upside. For 2013, I’ll give Young a line of 76/7/70/.272/2. Yawnstipating, to say the least.
Mike Olt – The Young trade adds a bit of positive news to my Mike Olt 2013 fantasy. As of right now, Olt moves from a three-way platoon for DH and 1B with Moreland and Young to potentially an everyday job, or at least a 90% of time job, only sitting vs. the toughest righties. I don’t believe the Rangers are done making offseason moves, so I’m not going to update Olt’s projections yet. His mom, Carol, should be happy about the news.