Comments on: Risky Pitchers for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 19:49:15 +0000

@BigA, AL Point Shares going up this week – def before Friday. Glad they’re coming in handy – maybe next year I’ll figure out a way to post them earlier on Google Docs.

By: BigA

BigA — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 17:42:38 +0000

Rudy,

Are you going to be putting up the AL league pointshares soon?

I have a draft this Friday – would love to see them. Your NL only ones are fantastic.

Many thanks -

BigA

p.s. there is a rumor you do not want to give away your AL pointshares to your competition in one league. I’m not in your AL league. If I might be so bold, if you could email them, that would be above and beyond the call of duty and in line for a tip in your tip jar. And they would be kept confidential.

By: Craig Dancer

Craig Dancer — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 14:38:00 +0000

Just wanting to say nice post.

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:51:18 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, Hey Rudy – would you mind racing back to the forums again? Your input on my team was great, but have a couple of questions arising from it. Thanks!

http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=22807

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:50:55 +0000

@stumanji, I like Latos more than Bumgarner or A-Rod.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:49:21 +0000

@TheTastemaker, C’mon, they got Melky!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:48:37 +0000

@Eric, It’s Rudy not Rudi. I’m not in the Huxtable clan! Worley is the easiest choice to drop. Minor would be next, edging out Moore.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:46:34 +0000

@Dylan, I think I answered this in a different post but I think Zimmermann has more sex appeal so is the better trade bait. Neither seem great from a keeper perspective.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:45:38 +0000

@Al Swedgin, Not bad but we went with Marginer.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:44:55 +0000

@AL KOHOLIC, Colby Lewis seems to be on every team of mine. He’s not sexy but has decent K’s, manages a solid WHIP, and should be fine for Wins. Other guys I like vs. ESPN ADP are Derek Holland and Juan Nicasio. Less of a sleeper and more as a great value: Mat Latos and Brandon Beachy.

By: stumanji

stumanji — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:22:17 +0000

I have the 3rd pick in my keeper league draft. Based on my rankings, the top guys available will be at least two of Konerko, A-Rod, and MadBum. Each of the 3 comes with obvious risks (age, health). Out of my 6 keepers, I only kept 1 SP (Felix). I could use a 3B so A-Rod is tempting, but I also like the idea of adding a second “ace” to my staff for the next x years. After owning Josh Johnson last year, this article has made me stop and consider spending a high pick on an injury risk.

My other keepers are McCann, Adrian Gonzo, Phillips, Trout, and Crawford. Other guys I could consider are Latos, Aramis, Rollins Asdrubal, Berkman, Michael Young, Morse…

By: nightpandas

nightpandas — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 11:33:15 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, I do have Anderson on the DL. The problem with Fowler is that he is a CF and my league is LF/CF/RF and one Util spot. I already have Kemp and Choo and then Bruce in my util spot. LF is slim pickings (Cody Ross and Alex Presley). Should I go for one of these guys instead? Also missed out on Young already.

By: TheTastemaker

TheTastemaker — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 02:59:23 +0000

Bumgarner is young, hopefully he can come into this year with another spring under his belt and blossom into the frontline lefty that he can be, the only thing that troubles me is the offense he has behind him, the giants didnt make any major moves this offseason and I dont think they have the sticks to bail bumgarner out of some tough losses, will be excited to see tho

By: Eric

Eric — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 01:45:17 +0000

Great work Rudi! I am in a salary cap league and am going to go cheap on starting pitchers. I narrowed it down to 9 and need 7. There is no innings cap. Here are the pitchers and the scoring system below: Which 2 would you leave of your team?

Bumgarner
Pineda
Darvish
Beachy
Matt Moore
Worley
Zimmerman
Luebke
Minor

Win 15 pts.
1 Inning Pitched 2 pts.
Strike Out 1 pts.
Loss -3 pts.
Walk, hit batter, or. -.5 pts
hit given up
Complete Game 5 pts.
Earned run -1 pts

Thanks

By: Al Swedgin

Al Swedgin — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 21:43:08 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, SafeCorps?

By: Dylan

Dylan — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 19:39:57 +0000

I’ve got Pineda and Zimmermann in my dynasty league. Considering the info, who is the better keeper and is either good trade bait for Hubter Pence? Help needed! Thanks!

By: Wake Up

Wake Up — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 19:30:45 +0000

@Wake Up, Ha, I just listened to the podcast…can’t believe arepas were brought up…

By: AL KOHOLIC

AL KOHOLIC — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 19:12:33 +0000

ok rudy,we all know most of the regular sleepers,they are gone in most formats,can we dig a bit deeper into rudys mind and get a few under everyones radar sp,s you really like this year,tough question i know and we wont hold you accountable,great post and thanks

By: Wake Up

Wake Up — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 19:03:39 +0000

@Wake Up, *than

By: Wake Up

Wake Up — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 19:02:36 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, That was a quote on Hanson from March 7, 2011, sorry for the confusion.

I guess I have more confidence in your predictions that you do this year.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:54:10 +0000

@Tom Thumb, Marginer?

By: Tom Thumb

Tom Thumb — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:50:32 +0000

Extraordinairiner? Ha.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:41:49 +0000

@Tom Thumb, We should have a Hodgepadre version for Mariners. Just about every Mariner pitcher is ownable if only for home starts and @OAK. I’d put Noesi as a borderline streaming candidate in 12-team.

By: Tom Thumb

Tom Thumb — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:34:50 +0000

Hector Noesi makes the Seattle rotation. Minor league career: Ivan Nova- 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9. Hector Noesi- 3.17 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.7 BB/9. How ya like him in that park?

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:24:40 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, Ah… I see what you’re saying. Yeah, that would be much less fun. I always see this breakdown as a good read and food for thought… actually, that’s how I view every article. Taking what anyone writes as gospel is silly, and pretty much defeats the purpose of playing FBB. Might as well just pretend that your LABR team is mine and follow it if I’m just going to do everything you and Grey say to do anyway.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:09:37 +0000

@Awesomus Maximus, My average isn’t .350. That’s the criteria I use which definitely has historical success. But my picks every year haven’t really exceeded the norm. Probably would’ve been better off just noting the pitchers who fall in each bucket and leave it at that. But that’s less fun

By: Tom Thumb

Tom Thumb — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:06:46 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, The velocity is reportedly back to 2010 levels at least in ST. His velocity on the FB was so down last year that hitters could sit on it and not swing at his slider. His slider would often leave the zone and resulted in a huge BB increase. If the FB velocity is back, it makes the slider a much better pitch. FWIW his K/BB in ST in 13 IP was 18/2 which is also encouraging. I think he is worth a flier. Currently 81 SP at MDC. Thoughts on that?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:04:50 +0000

@sean, I agree about the dart-throwing analogy. Hitting the DL is a big difference, though, from missing 1/3 or more of the season. That’s why I specify 2,000 or less pitches. Even a season like Hanson last year (130 IP / 2,169 pitches / more than a K per inning, 3.60/1.17) has solid value.

If you look at the stats I showed, pitchers who don’t throw a lot of sliders + having had big pitch increases + have thrown a full season in the majors at least once before the previous season are less risky (17%) than those that qualify for one or more of those conditions.

Still doesn’t change the facts that:
1) Using objective criteria, my picks don’t exceed the average. That is the epitome of dart-throwing.
2) Even if I get a rate 2x the average, it still might not warrant major changes to one’s drafting strategy.

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:02:03 +0000

So your formula was at the Mendoza Line last season, but its career AVG (if its career started in ’05) is .350? It’s been a long offseason, but I’m pretty sure that’s somewhere between “good” and “spectacular.” It’s certainly not worth scoffing at, or dismissing entirely. I look forward to this article, and I think it would be daffy to expect pinpoint accuracy.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 18:00:00 +0000

@Wake Up, Agreed that MiLB pitches still have relevance. i didn’t factor them into my analysis b/c of the amount of work involved. I think the 2nd year pitching in the majors – regardless of minor league volume – is a difficult one. Directionally, I’d think that those with light MiLB loads are a little more risky….

Hanson only had 2,100 pitches last year and I only considered pitchers with 2,700+. Consider his injury a ‘pre-existing condition’ which clearly makes him riskier. Yeah, I don’t like that slider/curveball dependency he has….that said, we took him in one draft b/c he came at a massive discount. The guy still has massive talent – 9+ K/9 last year. He’s kind of turning into a poor-man’s Josh Johnson.

I like pupusas a little bit less (no offense, El Salvador).

50%…yikes. Maybe using Verducci’s formula (any injury or any ERA increase….which amounts to over 50% of pitchers in a given year)