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Jose Reyes went from the King of Queens (See, Reyes is Spanish for kings.  Things are much more interesting when they need to be explained, aren’t they?) to the land of retired Jews as he signed with the Miami Marlins.  Did Jeffrey Loria’s great auntie die and leave him with an extra hundred million?  Team moves into a new stadium, changes its name and suddenly has money to burn.  Looks like Marlin employers might actually get Christmas gifts this year…. That aren’t regifted.  “Cool, um, the pie tin that hit Coghlan in the face.  Never thought I’d get one of these.”  Jose Reyes’s value doesn’t change much in Miami.  All Reyes needs to do is stay healthy and he’ll be every bit as valuable as he should be.  You know, 40+ steals, 100+ runs.  The uze.  For all of those people that are suddenly penciling him in for the best season of his career, I just want to point out one thing — Carl Crawford’s signing with the Red Sox and how well that worked out.  And he stayed (relatively) healthy.  Imagine if Reyes gets injured.  Now, they’re not related; they don’t even look like cousins.  No reason to think what happened to Crawford will happen to Reyes, but nothing is set in stone except in Perfect Case Scenario World where I’m not a blogger but shtupping Jessica Alba.  What Reyes should do in Miami is 110/12/50/.295/45.  I love it; I love Reyes; I own a “Reyes is My Baby’s Daddy” t-shirt.  Just keep caveats in mind.  (BTW, I didn’t use the word shtupping back there.  I wrote this post while on a ouija board channeling Buddy Hackett and he wrote that word.)  Anyway, here’s some other offseason moves that happened and what they mean for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Reyes just made it easier to be a Hanley apologist in 2012 drafts because he’s moving him over and Han-Ram’s getting 3rd base eligibility.  Honestly, I’m kinda annoyed because I was excited to draft Hanley at a discount and now every Tom, Dick and Harry Schmohawk will have an excuse to still draft Hanley so he’s not going to be discounted at all.

Manny Ramirez – Reports are saying he’ll serve his suspension and play again in 2012.  He’s probably embarrassed for being banned for estrogen and wants to get banned for something more heroic like drilling a hole in his bat and stuffing it with tampons.  Long term, maybe Manny can apply for the hitting coach job with the Cardinals.

40 Responses

  1. chata says:
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    reyes at south beach’s newest , hippest attraction .
    photo op !!
    voguing may become vogue again .

    it’s entirely possibly for hanley to under-perform again this year .

    how did clowny’s suspension get cut in half ?

    did you ever catch hackett’s live show ??
    saw him in vegas , back in ’76 …. had front-table seating .
    did his elephant routine .
    pretty freakin’ blue , for the times .
    a delightfully disgusting performer .

  2. Tony says:
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    saw this late last night, how does MIAMI have this cash? for years they’re wheeling and dealing moving every name that gets too big for them… (miggy, beckett, etc) Now they’re buying Reyes, and front runners to get Albert Pujols if he is to leave STL?

    I dont get it.

    What do you think a projected line up is going to look like right now?

    1- Reyes
    2-morrison?
    3-Hanram?
    4- ALBERT? (realistically Stanton)
    5?

    That line up, if AP would sign, would be sick, i think the Marlins may be forgetting that having pitching actually helps when you’re wanting to win. Josh Johnson would have to be healthy and I still dont think with him winning 20 games they have enough.

  3. schlitzy says:
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    Grey- interested in what you think about the dollars and years given to reyes from a non-fantasy baseball perspective.

  4. Tony says:
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    @schlitzy: thought he’d get more to be honest….

  5. Tony says:
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    @GopherDay: I liked Jintman’s start, Longo, J-up and carl crawford is solid…. from the first few rounds looks like heavy on the pitching? I liked the Votto/Cargo combo too…… i saw some guys that I think the hype machine pushed people to take them wayyyy too early. I wont be owning alot of players if thats where they’re going.

  6. charlie batch says:
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    interesting…
    and i know its funnier to write about estrogen but i believe manny was actually in trouble for anti-estrogen (ie. hightened testosterone).. carry on sir

  7. Modman says:
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    If the sign AP they will be happy for a couple of yrs but he is almost 50 yrs old. Look at his decling stats over last 3 yrs .I’m from stl I hope you sign him.

  8. GopherDay says:
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    @Tony: There was a lot of pitching taken early, which surprised me a bit. I took Lincy in the third round because I think that’s about the right value for him. Plus in a deeper 14 team mock, some good pitching early can have really good benefits.

  9. Eddie says:
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    Anaheim traded Mathis! Whatever will Scoscia do?

  10. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins try out a few different defensive alignments in preseason. Coghlan was an infielder in the minors – they might consider moving him to 3B and Hanley to CF so he feels more important. Worked for Yount and the fellatious Upton (he was a SS to 2B).

  11. KeeblerMN says:
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    Hey guys,
    What’s the best place to follow breaking MLB deals during the winter meetings? ESPN, Blogs, Twitter (may have to create a twitter account simply for this)?

  12. Wake Up says:
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    Hello, Hanley.
    Hello, Reyes.

  13. OaktownSteve says:
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    There’s going to be so much hype around the Marlins (new stadium, Reyes, Ozzie Guillen) that it’s going to be near impossible to get Hanley at any sort of reasonable price.

    I am a little concerned about his 2010 as much as 2011. More ground outs, fewer flyballs and line drives. Plus there’s no way to know how much the injury recovery continues to affect him this year.

  14. OaktownSteve says:
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    Congrats on the new kid Rudy. Mine is 6 weeks now. First three months are brutal. Hope everything is going well.

  15. sean says:
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    I completely agree with you about Hanley. I would have bought Hanley twice on Muesday with his 30% market value tag pre-Reyes. Now, he’ll get all the hype: less injury because less demanding position; no doubt about the fact that he’ll be in a run producing spot in the lineup instead of leadoff; gonna get fastballs with Reyes on base, etc.

    Now, the 3B eligibility makes him everyone’s second round sexy pick. He looks a fuckton better than Zimmerman and Youuuuk, who were getting drafted in the second and third last year.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Nah, never saw Hackett live. I saw Rickles, Cosby and Carlin (not at the same time).

    @Tony: Their pitching isn’t terrible. Anibal, Nolasco and Volstad… With LeBlanc, I guess. Okay, it’s not terrific, but not terrible.

    @schlitzy: I think the deal sounds about right. Teams have to give players too many years in order to sign them. I’m sure this deal like most will be sour by the end.

    @GopherDay: Cool, will check it out in a bit.

    @charlie batch: Gotcha

    @Eddie: Put on the glove again himself.

    @Rudy Gamble: What age was Yount when he switched? Seems like Hanley’s too old to be going to center, no?

    @KeeblerMN: Rotoworld

    @Wake Up: Ha…Nice

    @OaktownSteve: I honestly haven’t looked at Hanley in-depth yet. Last year was terrible, but he had been declining for a few years.

    @sean: Yup

  17. sean says:
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    @Grey: Hear the rumblings about Scociapath wanting to get Iannetta? What is with this guy taking our fave catchers and putting them out to pasture?

  18. Tony says:
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    @sean: I figured Hanley probably going about the 10-15 range, so now….. I bet he’ll be right back up to about top 6-8 players off the board.

    Every year people do this, kemp is a stud they overdraft, then he bombs, he slides the following year only to rebound huge….. Hanleys got all the tools, i think he’ll be motivated this year. Ozzie wont take any of the slacking BS he did in the past.

  19. sean says:
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    @Tony: There’s a reason why the Florida Marlins are the Miami Marlins. There’s a reason why the Miami Marlins signed Jose Reyes. There’s a reason why the Miami Marlins signed Ozzie Guillen. Baseball is as much the Latin pastime as it is the American pastime. Los Mets might have been a failed experiment, but there are a gazillion reasons why Los Marlins could work. This is a clear re-branding.

    On the draft, I totally agree with you. People are always surprisingly willing to overpay for last year’s career year. There is a reason why Marcel The Monkey is about as successful as any prognosticator out there: it’s based on that player’s historical performance, not hopes, dreams and momentum. I’d be out there looking for the value in the first few rounds after I snag some proven performers. Kemp is a perfect example of how this theory works. Why CBS had him in the 60s last year is beyond me. Now, they’ll have him #5 after Pujols, Braun, Halladay and Cabrera. No thanks.

    @Grey: my hot stove readership leaves a lot to be desired.

  20. Mark says:
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    I still kind of like Hanley in the 2nd round, but looking at some early ADP data, I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Tulo and Prince or Tex than Votto or Gonzalez and Hanley. If I have a Top 3 pick and wind up with Braun or Pujols though and Hanley falls to the end of the 2nd, I’d probably take him. I have a feeling a lot of other SS are going to be overvalued too. Andrus, Starlin, Asdrubal, Peralta, maybe Hardy, maybe Aybar. Dee Gordon in round twenty-something is probably the most interesting value pick at SS past the 2nd or 3rd round, and I’d much rather stick him at MI than count on him at SS.

    I’ve seen the argument than Hanley had been declining before 2011 in a few places, but I only half buy it. Half buying because of the GB% spike in 2010 that persisted in 2011, but half not because aside from that, not a whole lot changed over the 2007-2010 period. His walk and strikeout rates were a bit more erratic in 2007 and 2008 (in one year he whiffed and walked a lot, in the other he made more contact but didn’t walk much) but take both as a whole and they’re pretty much the same as they were in 2009, 2010, and even 2011. In 2011 most of his other ratios were on par too (contact and swstrike%, HR/FB, IFFB%, were all pretty close to his career norms). His ISO and BABIP were the only things that fell off, and even the ISO dip can be traced more to a lack of doubles than HR, meaning the low BABIP was probably effecting his ISO too. Seems to suggest that, aside from the GB% issue, most of this was more injury related with a bit of luck than actual skill depreciation. As long as he’s healed up, I’d expect a season within range of his 2010, maybe a touch worse, though unless he can correct the GB% issue, expecting anything better than that may be wishcasting. Still, a 3B/SS who can give you 45-55 HR+SB and hit around .300 is a pretty excellent second round value, which is about what I’d expect if there don’t seem to be any lingering injury issues in the Spring. I just wouldn’t expect a .340-30-30 monster the way he used to be projected every year.

  21. @OaktownSteve: Thanks. She’s doing well so far. Not as hellish as I feared :)

    @Grey: Yount was moved at 29. Hanley is 28. And Hanley is much faster.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mark: 40-ish HR/SB and .300 seems to be a bit more in line with what I’d expect. 55 would be great, but I think it would have to be a 35 steal season to get there.

    @Rudy Gamble: Interesting…

  23. Steve says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: @Grey: Have you guys ever given any thought to creeping among the potted palms at the Winter Meetings? Or too much real-life shizz to do?

  24. SwaggerJackers says:
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    More RBI opportunities for Stanton now. Woohoo!

    Do people reallly stick tampons in their bats?

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I don’t think we’d have much to do there. Maybe interview for a GM job with the Astros, but other than that…

    @SwaggerJackers: Yup and yup!

  26. Steve says:
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    @Grey: There are a few team representatives you could harangue for me.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: He just signed with the Dodgers.

  28. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Haw haw.

  29. royce! says:
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    I am sad to see Reyes leave the Mets (though based on the team’s last few seasons, I could see why he’d be ecstatic). I was unemployed in NY in 2006 and, being a principled homer, and, peripherally, a Padres and Mariners fan, and therefore a Yankees hater, but most importantly, unemployed, watched almost all of the Mets games on TV and attended some regular season games. My wife was working at William Morris and was able to finagle a couple seats for game 6 of the NLCS from an agent who, based on his not attending, apparently only had them to woo clients.

    In a 2 run game, Reyes went 3 for 4 with a HR, 2 SB, and 2 R, singlehandedly guaranteeing a game 7. Everyone chanted “Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose, Joooose, Joooose,” all the way from the stadium to the 7 train, and the chant rose and fell on the ride home as well. Game 7 was a heartbreaker, and the team’s epic implosions since then are well known, but that hasn’t stained one of my greatest baseball experiences.

    In other news, the Dodgers have now signed two SP with away ERAs of 4.70 and 5.42. Colletti being Colletti!

  30. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    if the O ‘s sign prince …. my guess is that he hits 47 home runs this year .

  31. Pabs says:
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    Reyes in Florida basically solidifies the NL EAST belongs to the Marlins

  32. Steve says:
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    @royce!: Great story. Isn’t unemployment grand? I always played my best golf when I was ‘between jobs’.

    On a side note – ABC reporting that all 8 of Sandusky’s alleged victims are going to testify against him at the preliminary hearing next week (despite what his lawyer has been saying).

    On another side note. Rosenthal just tweeted that Bill Hall has lost 15 pounds, though left out the all-important “he’s in the best shape of his life”.

  33. royce! says:
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    @Steve: Thanks!

    I had unfortunately not discovered golf yet. Living without a car in Manhattan would’ve made golf a little difficult anyway. I had discovered drinking, though! And air hockey! A buddy was part-owner of a bar in the Lower East Side that had an air hockey table, so I got really good at air hockey. And drinking. God Bless the Subway.

  34. Steve says:
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    @royce!: Ah, simpler times.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: All I remember from that is Beltran buckling.

    @chata: I’ll take the under.

  36. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Against Wainwright wasn’t it?

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yup… Absolutely buckled.

  38. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    started a forum thread .
    can you do any better ?
    are you sweet “genius” ??

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