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This is always painful, but it’s also necessary.  What follows is a look back at my preseason prospect rankings — a self audit, if you will.  To be clear, this isn’t a re-ranking or anything, but it should suffice to remind all of you that I am mostly stupid.  Please keep in mind that these guys are very early in their careers, and there is plenty of time for each to either figure it out, or get figured out.  Anyway, let’s cut to it:

1. Matt Moore | SP, Rays: He’s currently #295 on the Razzball Payer Rater, and performing nowhere near expectations.  I’m disappointed, Tampa’s disappointed, his parents are embarrassed.  He’s been good enough to stay rosterable in most formats, which is valuable in itself, but no one at this point in the season is pleased that he drafted Matt Moore.

2. Yu Darvish | SP, Rangers:  At #82 on the aforementioned player rater, Yu hasn’t been a complete turd, but he hasn’t quite pitched at the level that many thought he would.  Plus, Grey made me rank him top-5 in order draw more Japanese hits.

3. Yoenis Cespedes | OF, Athletics:  Hitting .283/.341/.505, Cespedes has been decent.  Not worth the $7 I paid for him in Blog Wars, but I’m hopeful for a better, healthier second half.

4. Jesus Montero | C, Mariners:  He’s been pretty horrendous at the plate:  .246/.285/.375.  Right now, he’s the 16th best catcher according to our player rater, so if you’re still starting him… don’t.

5. Devin Mesoraco | C, Reds:  Mesoraco has seen only 140 PA as the Reds’ backup catcher.  It’s hard to get into a rhythm at the plate without regular play as his slash line reflects:  .218/.300/.387.

6. Bryce Harper | OF, Nationals:  Hasn’t reached that immediate fantasy stud potential, but he’s had a solid rookie campaign and has certainly proven himself a capable fantasy option.  Still five or so years from peaking.

7. Zack Cozart | SS, Reds:  He’s been the 22nd best shortstop so far.  It was easy to project a lot of playing time for Cozart, tougher to project what he’d do with it.  He’s a fringy option even for deep formats, but he’s still owned in 23% of Yahoo! leagues.

8. Yonder Alonso | 1B, Padres:  Uuugh, these rankings are terrible.  Hitting .262/.345/.357 on the year.  Petco is a killer, but Alonso isn’t helping himself.

9. Trevor Bauer | SP, Diamondbacks:  If I were re-ranking these guys for ROS, Bauer would be the top pitcher.

10. Julio Teheran | SP, Braves:  He’s appeared only once for the Braves this year.  Atlanta went with Randall Delgado early, and now they’ve got Ben Sheets.  Meanwhile, Teheran has an ugly 4.96 ERA in Triple-A

11. Addison Reed | RP, White Sox:  As full-time closer for the White Sox, Reed’s been an asset in the fantasy game.

12. Mike Trout | OF, Angels:  Here’s what I wrote in March:  “If he truly had a shot at playing this year he’d rank top five.  He doesn’t.  Still, he deserves to be mentioned here because he’s absolutely ready if there is a need.”  In my defense, I spelled every word of that quote correctly.  Trout is the #4 overall player according to our player rater.

13. Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Cubs:  Rizzo mashed in Triple-A and was called up only a couple weeks ago.  Since his arrival, though, he’s been terrific:  .356/.377/.627.

14. Brad Peacock | SP, Athletics:  Peacock is having a particularly brutal year in Triple-A and is falling quite a ways down prospect lists.

15. Jarrod Parker | SP, Athletics:  Parker has been more than serviceable as a fantasy starter.  He’s owned in 55% of Yahoo! leagues and his ERA sits at 3.16.

16. Drew Pomeranz | SP, Rockies:  He’s shaken off the efficiency problems, found his stuff, and worked his way back to the majors.  Could help as a streamer going forward… away from Coors, of course.

17. Jacob Turner | SP, Tigers:  Turner is replacing the injured Drew Smyly in the Tigers rotation.  I figured he’d get a look before Smyly in the first place, and I think he’ll have a good chance to stick.

18. Leonys Martin | OF, Rangers:  A reserve outfielder for the Rangers, Martin isn’t getting the PA’s necessary to make a fantasy impact.

19. Shelby Miller | SP, Cardinals:  Miller is having a poor year at Triple-A Memphis and the Cardinals are now rumored to be shopping the once “untouchable” prospect.

20. Danny Hultzen | SP, Mariners:  A month ago he was tearing up Double-A and had many anticipating a jump straight to the spacious Safeco Field.  Instead, he was bumped up to Triple-A, where his walk rate has doubled. 

21. Tyler Skaggs | SP, Diamondbacks:  Skaggs has been steady in the minors all year, but he hasn’t broken through with guys like Trevor Bauer and Patrick Corbin ahead of him, developmentally.  His ceiling remains extremely high, but it looks like we won’t see him ’til 2013.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma | SP, Mariners:  He currently holds a SP slot for the M’s, but he’s not very relevant in the fantasy game.  Iwakuma was crushed by the Rangers in his most recent start.

23. Brett Jackson | OF, Cubs:  Not handling Triple-A as smoothly as expected, but still on track to reach Wrigley this year.  

24. Joe Benson | OF, Twins:  Benson is recovering from hand surgery and returned to Triple-A action on Monday.  It’s unlikely he’ll surface in the majors this year.

25. Lance Lynn | SP, Cardinals:  At #44 overall according to our player rater, Lynn has been the best guy on this list other than Trout.  At this point in the review, though, I’m just glad I ranked him.  Thank god.

From Around The Web

  1. Chris says:
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    Bauer would be the top pitcher? I just dropped him. Couldn’t stand the lack of control.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Chris, Admittedly, I wrote that before his ugly start last night, but I’ll stick by it. He needs to stop getting so cute with the sequencing & just throw… that should help with the walks. I don’t really think he’s too far off from being a very good fantasy starter. Thinking he’ll fare well in his next outing versus Houston.

  2. Plasmaj says:
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    What Chris said. Bauer is unreliable

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Plasmaj, See my reply to Chris. Again, don’t think he’s far from sorting out the walks somewhat.

      • Jay29 says:
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        @Scott Evans, he’s also got to realize he can’t work high in the zone in every single situation. It’s perfectly fine when you throw high heat to induce fly balls from slap hitters and opposing pitchers, but you can’t throw that pitch to (even) Ryan Ludwick in a small ballpark.

        • Scott Evans

          Scott Evans says:
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          @Jay29, Bauer demoted. Told ya I was mostly stupid.

  3. supra says:
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    Just picked up Gose and Gyorko in my keeper, hoping Headley gets traded. Marte is still out there, but I’m running out of moves. Thoughts?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @supra, I like the Gyorko move. Gose will provide some immediate SB value, but his ceiling isn’t quite what Marte’s is. Marte will require a little more patience, of course.

  4. phildo says:
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    I had almost forgotten that I didn’t draft Trout because of this site. Thanks for the reminder!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @phildo, Whoops! Lesson learned, I hope.

  5. Razztastic says:
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    Trout’s breakout was a tough one to see coming — in 2012 anyway.

    20 years old, hit only .220 in 100+ PA last year, and the Angels had like 5 OFs on their MLB roster (3 of which make a combined 40mil+ a year). I’m still amazed how quickly the Angels pushed Trout into the everyday lineup, given all that was stacked against him.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Razztastic, That’s precisely how I evaluated it preseason and I’m equally amazed at how quickly he was pushed through. Nice sum-up on Trout for those who don’t remember & thanks for having my back!

  6. errydayi'mhustlin says:
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    I had picked up Trout and Harper early in the season and dropped them both due to recommendations on here.

    Still, I have to credit you for guiding the 40+ other moves I’ve made, so all is forgiven.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @errydayi’mhustlin, Thanks for sticking with us! Our intentions are pure, I promise you that…

  7. Trade Harper? says:
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    I’m on the playoff bubble in 12 team H2H keeper (we keep 6@$120 no time limit). I’ve got two offers on the table from another team for Bryce Harper:

    1. Adam Jones or Colby Rasmus + Greinke
    2. Any two of Darvish, Greinke, Hanson, or Scherzer

    My OF (we start 4): Ellsbury, Trout, Harper, Gordon, Zobrist(U), Joyce(B), Stanton(DL)

    My SP: Burnett, Diamond, Fiers, EJackson, Leake, Lynn, Quintana, Volquez, Cobb, McAllister, Nolasco, Marcum(DL), Morrow(DL)

    I’ve been streaming pitchers each week around Lynn, Burnette, Marcum, Morrow, Jackson but it’s catching up to me after losing Hudson and Marcum/Morrow on the DL. With our keeper rules I won’t be able to keep all of these outfielders.

    Best option:
    1. Take the OF/SP combo? I might be able to swap in JUpton instead of Jones or Rasmus
    2. Take the SP/SP combo and play Joyce until Stanton comes back?
    3. Keep Harper and roll the dice on pitching matchups until at least Morrow comes back

    All opinions welcome. Thanks for reading this long post.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Trade Harper?, I’d do my best to hang onto Harper in a keeper w/ no timetable. Keep streaming for now.

  8. Pops says:
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    Jesus Montero is quietly coming out of his first half funk. I’ve been rotating Montero and Rosario in one of my leagues. It has worked well for me, as both seem to be streaky players. I will continue to roll with this platoon as I just don’t think it makes sense to trade for a player of value for a backstop.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Pops, Learning curve at the plate for a catcher always lags behind because of his defensive responsibilities. Back-to-back multi-hit games from Montero… could be the beginning of a solid second half. Wouldn’t hope for too much, though. And I agree — don’t trade for a catcher. Keep with the platoon or stream from waivers.

  9. Where is Paul Lo Duca? says:
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    Any chance we get an updated mid-season version of the Top 25 for 2013?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Where is Paul Lo Duca?, I’ll try to roll out some prelim 2013 ranks either next Weds or the week after. Stay tuned.

  10. Scott Evans

    Scott Evans says:
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    Seems Bauer has been demoted. I now take back that part about him being #1 ROS.

  11. Peter says:
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    With Bauer demoted do you think will we see Tyler Skaggs this year?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Peter, I think it’s more likely that we’d see Bauer or Corbin resurface if there’s a need, but I won’t count it out completely.

  12. Gator says:
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    Is Harper a Top 10 OF next year?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Gator, Close, but I think he’ll need a little more time to work himself into that picture.

  13. Scooter Jacobsen says:
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    We keep 25 out of 42 players every year. My first 21 guys are spoken for. Actually the first 22 players are spoken for (Billy Hamilton is my #22 – he isn’t leaving my team). So that leaves 3 spots between D.Mesoraco, Leonys Martin, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Jedd Gyorko, Ryan Wheeler, and Travis Snider. How would you rank them?

    • That'sWhatSpeedDo says:
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      @Scooter Jacobsen, IMO Miller, Teheran, Wheeler, Gyorko, Mesoraco, Martin, Snider.

      Keep in mind Wheeler will probably break into the bigs with a different club or if he does take over 3B in Arizona it’ll only be briefly with Davidson looming. I think he has a bat that can stick though. I wouldn’t argue with anyone ranking Gyorko ahead of him though.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Scooter Jacobsen, Miller, Teheran, Mesoraco, Gyorko, Wheeler, Martin, Snider.

  14. Zach says:
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    Write one that ranks them ROS and beyond…

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @Zach, ROS prospect ranks coming Weds. Prelim 2013 ranks in progress… to come later.

Comments are closed.