Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Projections For Pitchers (Steamer)

Time Stats Mixed League (ESPN Roster) Mixed League (Y! Roster) AL/NL (2C)
Season to Date Hitting
Pitching
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
AL: 10 | 12
NL: 10 | 12
Rest of Season Hitting
Pitching
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
AL: 10 | 12
NL: 10 | 12

# Name Team ESPN Y! $ G GS QS W L SV HLD IP H ER K BB ERA FIP WHIP BABIP Own%

NOTES:
Using the Grid:  To sort, click the column header.  Clicking once will sort in descending order.  Click twice for ascending order.  The Name field does not support sorting.  To filter, type within the text box underneath the column headers.  For text, it looks for any match (so ‘John’ under name would include Johnny Cueto and Chris Johnson).  For numbers, you can use greater than and less than signs as well (so >1 in Runs would filter to only players with at least 1 Point Share in Runs).  You can use multiple filters at the same time.

Projections - The Rest of Season projections are produced by Steamer Projections with playing time estimates produced by Razzball.  Saves, Holds, and Quality Starts are estimated by Razzball.  These projections are updated near-daily and take in-season performance into account.  The playing time estimates (which covers Games and Plate Appearances for hitters and Games and IP for pitchers) leverage in-season data such as batting order position, games started, averages IP/GS, etc and do aim to account for players on the DL and, to a lesser extent, players who may be more likely to lose playing time due to injury or performance.  Short-term events such as getting sent down to the minors or losing a full-time role may take some time to be accounted for in the projections.

Point Shares Methodology ($ and PS) - The values under the stat categories are Point Shares (PS).  They represent the estimated difference in an average team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position.  So if a player has a 1.0 for Runs, he would, on average, increase a team’s standing points in Runs by 1 point.  Multi-position eligible hitters are assigned their most valuable position for Point Share calculations based on the following order of most valuable to least valuable: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH. For more information on the methodology, see here.  The $ calculations are based on the standard $260 allotment per team and is tied to the Point Share methodology.

Roster:  For ‘ESPN Roster’, this is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P.  For ‘Yahoo Roster’, this is C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P.  For AL/NL-only leagues, this is 2C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P.

Pos / MVPos:  ’Pos’ includes every position the player is eligible.  ’MVPos’ is the position that was used for their Point Share rankings and is the position where the player is judged most valuable. The order of most valuable to least valuable for positions is: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.  Note that the position eligibility rules for ESPN and AL/NL only formats is 20 games previous season / 10 games current season while Yahoo format is 10 games previous season / 5 games current season.

Owned%:  Based on ownership within the Razzball Commenter Leagues which consists of 64 12-team MLB leagues using the standard ESPN roster format.

19 Responses

  1. hankp says:
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    It looks like pitchers that are on/coming off the DL have no W/Ls. Garza, Beachy, Danks, etc.

  2. Nation says:
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    Does someone like Shelby Miller get dinged because the perception (and correctly) that he may not throw more than 150 for the entire year?

    • I deduct some GS because he has never finished a full season. But will review to make sure I am not penalizing him too much

  3. Kyle says:
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    Are guys like Ian Kennedy and Estrada really more valuable than guys like David Price, Medlen, Fister and Latos? And why? Both of those guys are available in my league and a huge list of pitchers below them are all taken.

    • @Kyle: I would say no but I do think Kennedy and Estrada are good buy-low candidates given their K/BB. I would pick them up if you have roster space.

    • @evo34: This does update just about every morning. In general, rates should match assuming we estimate the same role for a pitcher (e.g., SP vs. RP).

    • This has now been fixed as of tomorrow’s data. Ryu’s issue was a reference-related snafu (he was in as a RHP vs. LHP). This impacted a handful of rookie pitchers. Gyorko (and a few rookie hitters) were missing minor league data that impacts their projections.

      • evo34 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Thanks for figuring it out. I think something happened to the formatting, though, as the raw player id tags are showing in the table now, rather than the player names as links.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, aware of it and working on it…

      • evo34 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Just a head’s up that the rookie issue appears to still exist with pitchers as well as hitters. E.g., Ryu is 3.66 RoS projected ERA at Fangraphs and 3.85 here. Thanks.

  4. Gary says:
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    Summed all pitcher wins (1490), losses (1049) and saves (589) from today’s projections. Meanwhile, there are 1374 games to be played as of this morning.

    Why is there such a disparity between wins and losses and games to be played?

    Saves have generally been one-half of wins dating back to the mid-80s. Shouldn’t saves be closer to 687? (1/2 of 1374)

    • @Gary: Steamer and I don’t force Wins/Losses to sum up to a certain number. The Wins/Losses are counting stats so heavily dependent on my playing time (IP) inputs which I don’t force per team (e.g., the Yanks must have Total GS = 162-Games to Date or Total IP = 162-Games to Date * 9).

      So the Wins total doesn’t look too off. I would’ve expected it higher than total Games only b/c I’d rather err on estimating a few more GS than too few (figure it’s impossible to forecast which SPs go down and it’s best to have some projections for the fill-in guys who’ll likely play if/when there are injuries). I’m a bit surprised that Wins and Losses have that big of a difference though so will ask Steamer what he thinks about that.

      Regarding Saves, that one’s all me. I have a few tricks on how I produce those but there is no forcing the # for a team. I’d expect those to come in below your calculation since I’ve tried to factor in some level of uncertainty with current closers and it’s too presumptuous to just take the likely remainder and give it to the other relievers on that team. Plus, there’s some regression/upper limits in my model so it won’t aim to credit more than about a 35-40 save pace.

      I’d expect if you summed up Hitter PAs or Games that you’d find similar differences.

  5. Pete says:
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    Is 17 a good estimate for Kenley Jansen saves?

  6. Jon says:
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    Rudy, two questions: Why isn’t Alex Wood on the ROS page? Also, why the high rating for Kevin Gausman (11.7)? I’m sure it’s a service time flukey thing for both, but just curious if you have any explanation.

    Thanks, this is such an awesome tool!

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