Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Projections For Hitters (Steamer)

Time Stats Mixed League (ESPN Roster) Mixed League (Y! Roster) AL/NL (2C)
Season to Date Hitting
Pitching
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
AL: 10 | 12
NL: 10 | 12
Rest of Season Hitting
Pitching
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 5×5 OBP | 6×6 OBP
6×6 OPS | 6×6 QS | 6×6 Holds | 7×7 QS+H
AL: 10 | 12
NL: 10 | 12

# Name Team ESPN Y! $ G PA AB R H HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Own%

NOTES:
Using the Grid:  To sort, click the column header.  Clicking once will sort in descending order.  Click twice for ascending order.  The Name field does not support sorting.  To filter, type within the text box underneath the column headers.  For text, it looks for any match (so ‘John’ under name would include Johnny Cueto and Chris Johnson).  For numbers, you can use greater than and less than signs as well (so >1 in Runs would filter to only players with at least 1 Point Share in Runs).  You can use multiple filters at the same time.

Projections - The Rest of Season projections are produced by Steamer Projections with playing time estimates produced by Razzball.  Saves, Holds, and Quality Starts are estimated by Razzball.  These projections are updated near-daily and take in-season performance into account.  The playing time estimates (which covers Games and Plate Appearances for hitters and Games and IP for pitchers) leverage in-season data such as batting order position, games started, averages IP/GS, etc and do aim to account for players on the DL and, to a lesser extent, players who may be more likely to lose playing time due to injury or performance.  Short-term events such as getting sent down to the minors or losing a full-time role may take some time to be accounted for in the projections.

Point Shares Methodology ($ and PS) - The values under the stat categories are Point Shares (PS).  They represent the estimated difference in an average team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position.  So if a player has a 1.0 for Runs, he would, on average, increase a team’s standing points in Runs by 1 point.  Multi-position eligible hitters are assigned their most valuable position for Point Share calculations based on the following order of most valuable to least valuable: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH. For more information on the methodology, see here.  The $ calculations are based on the standard $260 allotment per team and is tied to the Point Share methodology.

ESPN / Y!:  This represents their position eligibilty in ESPN leagues (or any others based on 20 games last season/10 games this season) and Yahoo! leagues (10 games last season/5 games this season).

Owned%:  Based on ownership within the Razzball Commenter Leagues which consists of 64 12-team MLB leagues using the standard ESPN roster format.

23 Responses

  1. Eddy says:
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    Wanted to say a belated thanks of this RoS projections page.

    They’ve come extremely in handy when deciding how to balance out trades by simply comparing some dollar signs.

  2. evo34 says:
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    Possible to put a date when page was last updated?

  3. evo34 says:
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    A few guys who are likely to get significant PT are missing:

    Logan Morrison
    Corey Hart
    Derek Jeter
    Alex Rodriguez
    Wil Myers
    Adam Eaton

    • @evo34: Thanks – just caught an issue with my feed provider. The player reference file changed and now had a qualifier of having played in 2013. So that screwed up my processes for everyone but Wil Myers. Wil Myers is not in there b/c I’m not projecting guys who aren’t part of 40 man rosters. I do it in the pre-season but it’s a bitch to do for reference purposes (only 40 man rosters have an ID in the DB). I’ll get around to addressing it at some point but, right now, I’d say he’s the only notable exception where there’s at least some general certainty w/ his playing time ROS.

      Should be all fixed by tomorrow afternoon.

  4. evo34 says:
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    I posted something over on the pitching page, but just wanted to point out one of many major discrepancies between your projected rate stats for batters and those listed at Fangraphs (under Steamer rest of season projections):

    You have Gyorko projected at .247 avg.; Steamer@Fangraphs has him at .271.

    Thanks.

      • evo34 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Just curious why the rate stats are still slightly different than those at Fangraphs in many cases. E.g., Gyorko (Razz): .268/.323/.435, vs. Gyorko (FG): .271/.326/.438. Rendon (Razz): .242/.310/.359, vs. Rendon (FG): .246/.328/.380.

        Note: I am looking at the stats on this page vs. those listed for Steamer RoS at Fangraphs, as of 5pm ET on June 14.

        • @evo34: Steamer identified the issue is that the FG projections are leveraging 2013 MiLB data. Projections on Razzball to date have only included MiLB data from 2012 back as well as in-season MLB 2013. Looking into updating 2013 MiLB data sporadically (this isn’t something we get as part of our standard feeds).

          This only impacts a handful of rookies.

          • Furonem says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: This would be great, especially for evaluating the value of rookies like Puig after their supposed regression.

          • Furonem says:
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            @Furonem: @Rudy Gamble: Also, it would be great to have a column for position independent value ($U) like in the Hitter-Tron. This way, one could evaluate the value of a player at a less valuable position. For example, whether Prado worth playing at 3B.

            Despite this, the tools you offer are fantastic. Thanks for providing them.

  5. evo34 says:
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    You’re probably already working on this, but the entire table is missing today for rest-of-season hitter projections.

  6. evo34 says:
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    I think the MiLB data (issue identified by Rudy above) could use an update, since we are seeing some big discrepancies with rookies again. E>g., Puig is listed with a .246 AVG. projection here, but a .270 rest-of-season Steamer projection at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14225&position=OF

    Thanks.

      • evo34 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        The rookie projections have changed, but something is still way off — strangely, it seems now to be in the other direction (rookies’ BA projections are inflated). E.g., Puig is now listed here with a .290 BA, but just .268 at Fangraphs; Gyorko is .267 here and .257 there. Thanks.

        • hmm, interesting. b/c it should be very similar now that we’ve incorporated minor league stats. we’ll look into it.

  7. John says:
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    Are your weekly projected stats for batters base on Batter/Pitcher match ups? Thanks In Advance.

    • Yes. You can see each of the 7 days broken out on their player page (just click on name)

  8. hankp says:
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    When do you plan to rollout the ROS projections this year?

    • Peter says:
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      Came to ask the same thing as hankp — wondering when the ROS Steamer hitting and pitching stats will be updated.

    • Within the next 2 weeks. Once this is done, Buysellatops and ROS Player Raters will generate.

  9. Jake says:
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    Hi Rudy,

    The links don’t seem functional for the “rest of season” projections? Are those available?

    Thanks!

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