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So you have the same song stuck in your head while you read this as I have in my head while writing it, let me just say this, “Black and yellow… Black and yellow… Black and yellow…”   At least I didn’t say, “I whip my hair back and forth,” because that’s much worse.  Or anything by Ke$ha.  You know what the dollar sign stands for in the middle of her name?  The money you have to pay me to listen to her.  When I looked at Ryan Zimmerman back in September, I said, “Seems like Zimmerman’s career is following the two steps forward, one step back Electric Slide approach.  In fairness, it was due to some thigh tightness in April and missing the last two weeks that caused Zimmerman to fall just short of projections.  I have to say, for a top guy, he kinda bored me for stretches.  Particularly, the 2 homer, .245 month of June and a zero homer month of September.”  And that’s me recapping the recap!  That didn’t sound like a huge endorsement, but he was also 25-years-old for the majority of 2010 and he was still a top five 3rd baseman.  A position that is hella shallow in 2011.  So what do I think Ryan Zimmerman can do in 2011 and what makes him a fantasy baseball keeper?

Jayson Werth took a hit when he went for the greenbacks down in Washington, but it doesn’t mean it will hurt Zimmerman.  I’m not thrilled Zimmerman has a hard time staying healthy for an entire season.  Who are you, Tulo?  Kinsler?  Minus a piddling 2008, Zimmerman has been consistent.  Good for 25 homers and a solid average.  He has some sneaky speed, but he seems like he’s abandoned that element of his game.  Probably at the request of the Nats.  If he can somehow have a full season of ABs, he could be the most valuable 3rd baseman in the game.  Bill James is only giving Zimmerman a line of 94/27/95/.291/4.  Usually BJ’s on the optimistic side, but I’m doing BJ one better.  I’m one-upping him!  I’m giving Zimmerman a line of 90/32/100/.285/5 and think we’re about to get that big season from him.  Finally.  Or maybe it’s just “Black and yellow… Black and yellow… Black and yellow…” has made me daffy.

From Around The Web

  1. Al Swedgin says:
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    Josh Willingham to the A’s and the Colosseum: That’ll save me 30 seconds each day as I will no longer have to do a quick stop-and-think every I time I see him near the top of the Free Agent OF list.

  2. Terrence Mann says:
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    Had Zimmerman last year in H2H and was really happy with him. Helped carry my team when Pujols slumped. I’m concerned with his value losing Donkey as protection. I think it’s a pretty big assumption that Werth will offer similar protection behind Zimm that Donkey gave. When I mentioned yesterday that maybe it might be better to wait on 3B a few rounds I was specifically thinking of Alvarez. I know his strikeouts were high but extrapolate his ABs to 500 and his HR and RBIs are better than Zimm. I know Zimm has the track record and is a stud but I’ve got to take a risk or two somewhere in the draft. To me, Zimm looks like the player that Youkilis used to be. Good average and RBI but if he hasn’t shown the ability to hit 35 HRs by now (with Donkey behind him), why should we think it might happen this year?

    At this point, I think the sneaky value pick for the Nats is Morse. He’ll bat behind Werth (and maybe Willingham). You mentioned Zimm’s sneaky speed and we know Werth can run a bit, too. The table could be set for Morse a lot this year. Seeing the fact that you like Smoak, it makes more sense to me to get Smoak and Morse later instead of wasting an early-mid round pick on Billy Butler and his 30 GIDPs.

    We’ve established OF is shallow the past couple days. I think it’s possible to wait on 3B and grab Alvarez OR wait on 1B and take Smoak and Morse. Alvarez, Smoak, and Morse are all young upside guys with established pop. That’s what I want out of my draft.

    Go ahead and beat me down, Grey.

  3. mic says:
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    black and orange… black and orange… black and orange…

  4. RGP says:
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    With Putz and Jenks out, what is the likely Save situation in Chicago? Thornton? Sale? Free-Agent-To-be-Signed?

  5. Howard says:
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    Hi Grey, who would you take first in a keeper, Dread Pirate or Heyward?

  6. vinko says:
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    Will Larry King be doing more post here at Razzball now that he’s giving up his day/night job?

  7. The Vaporizers says:
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    In a keeper league, would you trade Reynolds for Alvarez? Keeping in mind that I wouldn’t be keeping Reynolds (unless he’s a better keep than Victorino) and Alvarez would be eligible to be a Type A keeper for me (rookie last year).

    OR, would you simply keep Reynolds over Victorino?

  8. The Vaporizers says:
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    Part two of question.

    OR I can try and get Kendry Morales for Reynolds (owner already had Howard). I’m thinking that Alravez is the way to go. But the more I think about it, I doubt that owner will do it. BUT, that same owner also has Tabata and will only be able to keep one of them.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Al Swedgin: Ha!

    @Terrence Mann: I can’t imagine ever telling anyone to draft Butler in his present state, so I’m not refuting that. Werth is pretty protection because it’s not just strikeout, homer, walk with him.

    @mic: Ha!

    @RGP: Thornton

    @Howard: Heyward

    @vinko: I hope so.

    @The Vaporizers: I’d take Alvarez.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Thanks for the heads up!

  11. BookieBob says:
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    Zimm’s not so much Electric Slide but more Fantastic Voyage:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbVVD9xRlyg

    Slide, slide, slippity slide
    I do what I do just to survive
    Come along and ride on a fantastic voyage….

  12. Terrence Mann says:
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    With Willingham getting traded does that open up a spot back up for Bernadina? If so, he could be another sneaky late round flier. His power started to come around last year and he could be a 15/20 guy that would fit nicely as a #5 OF. Could Bernadina move to left or would Werth have to?

    Bernadina, Alvarez, Morse, Smoak. I love me some young sleepers!

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BookieBob: Ha

    @Terrence Mann: Bernadina seems like he’s interesting in theory but if he’s a poor man’s Big FraGu then that gets old fast.

  14. Terrence Mann says:
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    Was Gopher Day the one that started the 1st mock? We need another one for next week. Forgot how much I love mocks. I think they rate right behind sex and ribeyes and right above Tosh.0 in relation to things I enjoy the most.

  15. Stephen says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Remember that prorated numbers from half a season over a full season isn’t a great way to evaluate fantasy value. See: 2009 Chris Davis.

  16. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Ury thing I do, I do it big.

    If you like Black and Yellow, check out Tipsy from Big Heed and Alien.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @SwaggerJackers: Hold up, this ain’t even where I live. Hehe…

  18. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Stephen: You mean Alvarez isn’t a lock for 100 RBIs with Lastings Milledge and Neil Walker hitting in front of him?

    That’s just crazy talk, Stephen.

  19. Stephen says:
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    @Terrence Mann: According to the Pirates beat writer Walker was deserving of a vote for the NL ROY … Not that should help any case made for the Pirates offensive offense.

  20. Steve says:
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    @royce!: Try and contain your excitement – the Bartlett deal is done.

  21. is morse even starting? he’s interesting in the abstract but everything you hear sounds like the nats are going to sign somebody for 1B, d-lee or laroche. i also saw a fairly definitive quote or nats source saying that morse was specifically not being considered for full-time work next year.

    i was sneaking him upwards on my own list for a while but reading that was kind of a bucket of cold water on the morse front.

    also how exactly does smoak have “established power”.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @wily mo: Did I say established power?

  23. big o says:
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    wiggington signs on with colorado , 2 days ago , and nobody’s bitchin’ ?

  24. Eddy says:
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    @Terrence Mann:
    I can’t believe you forgot me already :(

    I keed I keed. I’m planning one again for Wednesday but pushing it a little later because I know a couple of commenters wanted to participate. I’m thinking 7pm or 8pm?

  25. royce! says:
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    @Steve: Sorry it took me so long to reply– I’ve been out celebrating. Not sure if you’ve seen the news coverage but San Diegans are rioting in the street! Hudson and Bartlett confirmed on the same day!

    In all seriousness, I’m happy about both. But I keep my expectations in check.

    Also, my father in law is gonna be in NZ for a couple weeks this month — I believe in both the N and S islands — if you don’t mind, what things would you recommend he see/eat/experience/patronize/etc. while being in NZ?

  26. Tony says:
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    @royce!: exciting for the Padres, they let AGON go and get Bartlett and o-dog… LOL

    I’m sure those two are at least happy. San Diego might be an alright squad this year due to their pitching, but at least they’re living in a beautiful spot now….. tampa wasn’t bad bartlett, but leaving minnesota has to be great for odog….

    Now something relevant, i think? What round are you guys thinking on average a guy like Pedro Alvarez is going to go in a 12 teamer…. non-keeper

    best guess.

  27. mr baseball says:
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    I am ready for Ryan Zimmerman part 2 – I had him for part 1

  28. @Grey: no, not you – was talking to terrence -

  29. baby batters says:
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    Grey, love the site. Any thoughts on where and who to draft at 3B after Zimm is off the board? I’m thinking you have to make a play for Alvarez and if you miss, you fallback on Reynolds or Panda???? Anyone up for doing the ESPN mock on MDC at 12:30 CST?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Thought we talked about this days or a week ago in the comments.

    @baby batters: I like Alvarez. If not, then Reynolds.

  31. Howie says:
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    Do I keep Zimmerman for $22 in a 4×4 roto?

  32. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Eddy: Count me in.

  33. Howie says:
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    @Grey:

    Thanks. Follow-up to that one…

    I can retain a max of six from year to year. I’ve narrowed my choices down to among these seven…whom would you send back to the auction pile?

    Desmond- $2, McGehee- $3, Chris Young (OF version)- $5, Dread Pirate- $2, Zimmerman- $22, Gallardo- $3, Chapman- $2

    Perhaps the answer is which player could be expected to be nabbed for a price closest to what I would need to pay in order to retain?

    On a related note, there is (sort of) an eighth player…one I had planned on retaining for $2 in 2011, but holding on to one Stephen Strasburg doesn’t seem wise as I would presumably lose all this coming year (my league is a low maintenance– trades and IR replacements is all that is allowed so auction success is critical) and who knows how he might be in 2012?

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Howie: Lose McGehee…

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Howie: Assuming that’s Desmond Jennings. If Ian Desmond, lose him.

  36. Howie says:
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    @Grey: Sorry…it is Ian Desmond and he will be returned to the stockade.

    Of the other guys- including McGehee- I presume I am not overpaying for anyone?

  37. Steve says:
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    @royce!: Shoot me an email at sglyonatgmaildotcom and I’ll throw a list together.

  38. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    @Grey et al: Happy Holidays! Just traded my Utley & Carlos Ruiz for his Cano in a 12 team H2H dynasty league. Did I do alright???

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bill Lumbergh: Happy Holidays! I wouldn’t have made that trade, but it’s okay.

  40. Black Beard says:
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    ESPN released their first rankings for 2011 today. I can’t wait to see how I can exploit them for my own advantage!

  41. Terrence Mann says:
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    I’ve been so pleased with the Rockies off-season. Resigned DLR and got Tulowristy long term. Shored up the infield depth with Wiggington and Lopez. Sneaky strikeout guy in Paulino. All we need is a solid reliever. Now we add Mike Jacobs? Are you kidding me? The fact that the Royals and Mets don’t want him isn’t enough? Next thing you know, we’ll be giving Renteria 6 million a year.

    Come on, O’Dowd. You’ve gotten this far. Don’t start screwing things up.

  42. Terrence Mann says:
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    @wily mo: Smoak had 13 HRs in half a season. I’m a big believer in the idea a player’s power will build until he’s 27. I guess my love for Smoak is all in relation to where Billy Butler goes in drafts. Pretty similar players but I will bet anyone Smoak will have more HRs this year.

  43. GopherDay says:
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    Royals have reportedly sent Greinke to the Brewers in return for Aclides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain.

    Will the Royals let Aclides run free? Do we have a new favorite MI pick? Those are the questions for the man with the ‘stache.

  44. quimmy says:
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    @GopherDay: If this Greinke deal happens, the Brew will have YoGa, Greinke and Marcum at the top of their rotation. Not too shabby!

  45. Eddy says:
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    Yup looks like it’s gonna happen. Brewers also getting Betancourt.

    Looks like when I chose Greinke over Hamels and Verlander in the mock thinking he’d go to the NL I was right! :P

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Eh, he’s just insurance for Helton. Not really going to play.

    @GopherDay: Wow… Brewers just became a contender if that happened.

  47. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    jeffress included in the deal .
    he’s not ready to close , yet , but ,
    soria’s got to be slated as the next to leave kc .
    the royals are far from being able to derive “worth” from
    rostering a top-notch closer .

    any thoughts ?

  48. @Terrence Mann: ok, that’s fair, i guess he has established pop if the benchmark is butler. just seemed like an odd thing to say about him.

  49. royce! says:
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    @Steve: thanks!

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Any thoughts with what?

  51. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    soria’s time left in k.c.

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: No idea why any small market team would keep a closer unless they were cheap, which he is right now.

  53. royce! says:
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    @big o: Sorry big o, I jumped the gun- Jeffress is now the PTBNL, so you were right all along.

  54. LMack says:
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    Hmm. Still in some fantasy football playoffs but baseball is just calling me.

    Couchmanagers has recently changed it so that you need a paid subscription to do mock auctions. Anyone know of a site with free mock auctions? Also, what date-ish do Yahoo!/ESPN open their FB doors?

  55. Eddy says:
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    @LMack:

    I know Yahoo and and ESPN open their doors in the month of February.

    And Yahoo hosts free auctions. But as for any other current site doing free auctions, i wouldn’t know.

  56. Mike from Jersey says:
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    While looking at Gallardo’s fip and babip, it seems like if luck even’s out he can be looking at a 3.10ish era, to go along with 200k’s or so. and if he can work on his walks, his numbers can really take off.
    Grienke can be looking at a big spike because of the switch in leagues.

    So how would you rank them fantasy wise? Which one is better and do you think they are both top 15, mixed league starters?

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