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Grey has already done up his top 100 list for the 2nd half of the season based on his proprietary formula that combines moxie, opinion, cheekiness, and the occasional statistic.

Now that Dan Szymborski – the man behind ZiPS projections – is providing free ‘rest of season’ projections at FanGraphs, I figured I’d see what the Point Shares would look like.  I’ve posted the 12 team MLB Point Shares under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings tab in the top menu.

I’ve made no changes to Dan’s projections except for knocking down the AB’s (and adjusting the other stats proportionally) for a few injured players.

The results are interesting to say the least (which is an odd saying…if that’s the least you can say about something, it’s pretty damn good.  When I ask my lady how sex was and she says “Interesting to say the least”, I figure every adjective ‘more’ than interesting is positive.   A diss would be more ‘Interesting to say the most” which is pretty harsh.  The most I could say is it made a ripple in the tedium that fills my day…)

In any case, the main theme in this data is that 1H 2010 DOES play a factor in projecting 2H results (Mauer’s previous 19 HR season has been scaled to 7 HRs in the 2nd half.  Bautista is projected for 10 more HRs in 2nd half after an initial projection of 14 HRs for the whole year) BUT it’s not everything.

Dan Haren – who started the season at #6 on our MLB 12 Team Point Shares (based on blended ZiPS and CHONE stats) – is #8 based on 2nd half projections despite a so-so 1st half and his historical struggles in the 2nd half.  On the flip side, David Price is #260 despite having excellent stats to date.

So give it a look….it should be interesting to say the least (or most)….

P.S.  We’re just running the Point Shares for MLB 12 team vs. all the league and team versions for the 1st half.  Sorry.

From Around The Web

  1. Black Beard says:
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    Colby Lewis @ 19?

  2. Sebastian says:
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    Uggla for Brian Wilson. Fair?

  3. MeanMachine says:
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    I am worried about my pitching holding up during playoff time in my H2H league. I have alot of young guys im worried about fading or running into innings caps down the stretch. Who should i keep and who should i try and move before they turn into pumpkins! I have:
    Hanson
    Romero
    Hughes
    Kennedy
    Medlen
    Romero
    Morrow

    Thanks!

  4. @Black Beard: Yeah, Colby Lewis is really hard to project as equivalizing Japanese stats to MLB is difficult. He got drafted significantly higher than I thought he should in all drafts but he has delivered. But no way worthy of #19…

  5. Black Beard says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the Point Shares, Rudy. Good to see you back and congratulations.

  6. @MeanMachine: Wow…I’ll be honest…all those young arms are in trouble of seeing reduced innings in august/september.

    i’d be least concerned with romero and hanson as romero pitched nearly a full season last year and hanson will be needed for the pennant race.

    hughes should be safer than medlen from getting moved to the bullpen but both are tempting moves for their teams as a way to cap their innings and revisit past bullpen success.

    i can’t believe ian kennedy stayed healthy this year. arizona isn’t playing for anything so they could shut him down. tough to say.

    ditto the above for brandon morrow.

    i’d look to trade anyone besides hanson and romero for SPs that are less likely to be shut down…

  7. kwak says:
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    I need a quick response, I have a more detailed situation currently in the Trade Talk forum.

    In a vacuum, would you rather trade for Krispie Young or Brett Gardner?

    I know they’re both quasi-breaking out but I haven’t read much about Gardner this year. Does he play everyday?

    I’m in dire need of AVG, RBI and SB, but I am leading the league in HR and Rs. So it’s hard to target someone that fits an ideal profile.

  8. Cdoggie says:
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    J RAZZ, I just made a pretty killer trade… at least I *THINK* it’s killer… did i score big time or what?

    12 Team Keeper League

    Gave up:
    Morneau, Figgins, Hughes and my 1st & 2nd draft picks
    For:
    Zimmerman, B. Phillips, Danny Haren, K-Rod and his 4th pick

    I do good ???

  9. Kevin says:
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    NL-Only League:

    Trading Ian Kennedy, Vicente Padilla & Rafael Furcal for Ubaldo Jimenez.
    I have Tulowitzki coming back next week. Seem good?

  10. Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude says:
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    @Cdoggie: For this year its killer for sure. In the long term it really depends on how many players you get to keep. If you get to keep 6+ players its great.

  11. MarkM says:
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    @Kevin: Seems great. One man’s trash is another man’s Ubaldo.

  12. danimal35 says:
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    Is Porcello streamable tomorrow?…I need K and QS…the rest isn’t such a big deal as I am pretty far ahead in the other cats

  13. Chili Davis Con Carne says:
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    Any idea why is Chris Carpenter so incredibly low?

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