Comments on: Razzball 2008 Point Shares (Final)

By: Grey

Grey — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 01:11:55 +0000

@Nick: BTW, Rudy's got a Point Shares post coming Sunday night/Monday morning.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 00:49:32 +0000

Thanks Nick! I read a thread on TangoTiger’s site last year that was very similar. Let it be known that those guys are statisticians and I am just a dabbler.

I was leaning towards incorporating CHONE and now it’s official. Still debating whether blending 2+ systems would remove any bias. Maybe I’ll post the group…

By: Nick

Nick — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 23:53:10 +0000

Rudy,

As you’re looking at which projections to use for next year’s player rater, you might find the discussion here interesting…

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evaluating_the_2008_forecasting_systems/

Looks like CHONE actually came out the “best” as far as 2008 goes, but I’m not sure about the applications for fantasy, where the things we care about most are the difficult to predict players, and where projecting playing time is critical (something not all systems do). Not sure if averaging projections would leave us with something more accurate or not. Anyway, if you’d like any help with this stuff, feel free to email me at nickojohnson at yahoo. Good luck!

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:56:54 +0000

As much as I hate to admit it, I’m PECOTA’s bitch as well. Shandler is decent, but doesn’t really go out on a limb like PECOTA sometimes will. I ordered the 2009 THT preview cause supposedly their projections were better this past year (I didn’t see them myself). My one complaint about PECOTA is that it seems to regress batting average too much, and the stuff that THT does with batted ball data makes me wonder if they’ll be better at predicting that most volatile of categories. Supposedly Statcorner is working on this as well.

Yes, these are the things I spend my free time thinking about. That and limited edition colored vinyl…

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:02:21 +0000

@Nick: Hey Nick…yeah, we’ll be doing a 2009 pre-season Point Shares. I’m a Baseball Prospectus fan….still TBD what other projection I may add to that…

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:49:25 +0000

The value rankings are excellent as well! You always hear how so-and-so is a “great value” in the 11th round or whatever, but I’ve never really seen it quantified like this. Outstanding!

So please tell me that you’re going to do this with the pre-season projections and 2009 ADP info in the spring. Please! I’d also be interested in hearing what/which projections you plan on using…

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 02:57:32 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Not bad, I suppose, as long as it's not coupled with getting Tootise’d.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 02:11:29 +0000

Furcal may pull a Donnie Moore tonight, but a good 1st baseman would have scooped that.

How bout a new Razzball term? “Pull a Donnie Moore”.

For instance, “Gagne just gave up another cosmic shot to Pujols? He’ll probably pull a Donnie Moore tonight.”

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:59:06 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Unfortunately pitching is the most unpredictable, but you have enough great pitchers that you should still be set.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:46:44 +0000

@Grey: Unfortunately Hamels stock is rising. Unfortunate for others, I'll refresh your remembery. My keepers next year- Halladay, Webb, Hamels, Bills and Shields. Love the fact that Halladay finished on top of Rudy's Player Hater Rater. Gonna be a lot of Hippo Hatin next year too. We'll just have to work on my bats. No problems with the pitching.