Comments on: Razzball 2008 Point Shares (Final)

By: Grey

Grey — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 01:11:55 +0000

@Nick: BTW, Rudy's got a Point Shares post coming Sunday night/Monday morning.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 00:49:32 +0000

Thanks Nick! I read a thread on TangoTiger’s site last year that was very similar. Let it be known that those guys are statisticians and I am just a dabbler.

I was leaning towards incorporating CHONE and now it’s official. Still debating whether blending 2+ systems would remove any bias. Maybe I’ll post the group…

By: Nick

Nick — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 23:53:10 +0000

Rudy,

As you’re looking at which projections to use for next year’s player rater, you might find the discussion here interesting…

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evaluating_the_2008_forecasting_systems/

Looks like CHONE actually came out the “best” as far as 2008 goes, but I’m not sure about the applications for fantasy, where the things we care about most are the difficult to predict players, and where projecting playing time is critical (something not all systems do). Not sure if averaging projections would leave us with something more accurate or not. Anyway, if you’d like any help with this stuff, feel free to email me at nickojohnson at yahoo. Good luck!

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:56:54 +0000

As much as I hate to admit it, I’m PECOTA’s bitch as well. Shandler is decent, but doesn’t really go out on a limb like PECOTA sometimes will. I ordered the 2009 THT preview cause supposedly their projections were better this past year (I didn’t see them myself). My one complaint about PECOTA is that it seems to regress batting average too much, and the stuff that THT does with batted ball data makes me wonder if they’ll be better at predicting that most volatile of categories. Supposedly Statcorner is working on this as well.

Yes, these are the things I spend my free time thinking about. That and limited edition colored vinyl…

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:02:21 +0000

@Nick: Hey Nick…yeah, we’ll be doing a 2009 pre-season Point Shares. I’m a Baseball Prospectus fan….still TBD what other projection I may add to that…

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:49:25 +0000

The value rankings are excellent as well! You always hear how so-and-so is a “great value” in the 11th round or whatever, but I’ve never really seen it quantified like this. Outstanding!

So please tell me that you’re going to do this with the pre-season projections and 2009 ADP info in the spring. Please! I’d also be interested in hearing what/which projections you plan on using…

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 02:57:32 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Not bad, I suppose, as long as it's not coupled with getting Tootise’d.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 02:11:29 +0000

Furcal may pull a Donnie Moore tonight, but a good 1st baseman would have scooped that.

How bout a new Razzball term? “Pull a Donnie Moore”.

For instance, “Gagne just gave up another cosmic shot to Pujols? He’ll probably pull a Donnie Moore tonight.”

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:59:06 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Unfortunately pitching is the most unpredictable, but you have enough great pitchers that you should still be set.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:46:44 +0000

@Grey: Unfortunately Hamels stock is rising. Unfortunate for others, I'll refresh your remembery. My keepers next year- Halladay, Webb, Hamels, Bills and Shields. Love the fact that Halladay finished on top of Rudy's Player Hater Rater. Gonna be a lot of Hippo Hatin next year too. We'll just have to work on my bats. No problems with the pitching.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:32:46 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Yeah, I'd watch it too. I think this might be the best thing that ever happened to Billingsley's stock. He might just sneak through a bit now.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:26:54 +0000

At least my guy Hamels is gonna be MVP.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:22:55 +0000

@Grey: I’ve had Bills since his rookie year.

For all the fantasy players who actually watch real baseball, his stock for next year just went way down. No matter, I’m keeping him next year. He’s only gonna get better.

As for watching real baseball, I’d watch it year round. I just love baseball man.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:14:56 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Ha!

BTW, if you haven’t seen Billingsley all year, he usually looks better.

EDIT: Missing a word… Word!

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:10:59 +0000

@Grey: Saw it and thought the same thing. Think the ump was trying to get Utley to buy him a couple hookers?

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:08:24 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Oh my, did you just see the convo between Utley and the ump? The ump's trying to make small talk and Utley's like, "Um, I'm preparing to hit a 95 MPH fastball in the playoffs, can we finish this another time?"

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:05:52 +0000

@Grey: He's no has been, didn't you see You Don't Mess With the Zohan? Maybe the Dodgers will get Ralph Malph to take Scully's spot when he retires.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:56:44 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Right after I submitted I realized they should have dressed him up in his leather jacket and called him The Rally (grease) Monkey.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:55:05 +0000

@BigFatHippo: The Fonz needs to pound his fist on the top of the Dodgers' dugout for some runs. We call him The Rally Has-Been.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:49:04 +0000

BTW, Rudy’s player rater is great.

Love the way he factors in positions.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:45:17 +0000

@Grey: No, dead. Wait, that was Estelle Geddy. I'm thinking the Fonz must be a big Dodger fan, watches 4 innings and leaves when the surfs up.

By: Grey

Grey — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:39:43 +0000

@BigFatHippo: How random was that? The city of the TV and movie industry and they had The Fonz. Was Angela Lansbury busy?

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 00:37:38 +0000

@Grey: At least the Dodgers have The Fonz on their side, AAAAAAYYYYYY?

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:15:21 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: This is top notch work, Rudy. I'd nominate you for a Webby or a Bloggie or an Independent Blog Spirit Award if I could.

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:58:00 +0000

Cool. Thanks, Rudy. You are truly awesome.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:19:14 +0000

@Nick: 9 hitters and 7 pitchers in a 10 team league looks pretty much the same as 13 hitters and 9 pitchers. The averages go up. The only guy to move dramatically in the top 10 is Pujols went down to 11 as his AVG points dove down (less low AVG 1B make rosters to drive down the average). Wright becomes the most valuable hitter with Hanley right on his coattails....

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:59:00 +0000

Okay, indulge me. 9 hitters and 7 pitchers… I expect we’ll see replacement level on the pitching side shoot up (as I guess hitting would too, but maybe not so drastically?)

Sorry to be so demanding.

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:58:12 +0000

Okay, indulge me. 9 hitters and 7 pitchers…

Sorry to be so demanding.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:22:56 +0000

@Nick: The average composite hitter is at 84/22/83/11/.286 and it skews as you’d expect per position (1B and 3B have higher RBI, 2B and SS have higher SB…).

The replacement player is worth about -3.0 in a perfect league where the best performers are picked. But that’s impossible on several levels. The first being that there are many hitters that are either unproven and go largely unowned despite putting up roster-worthy stats or proven in the past and have a bad year. Plus, someone could be great for 3 weeks and then you could dump before he gets cold.

I didn’t run Point Shares for 2007 but the 2008 projections I used to do pre-season Point Shares were eerily close: 84/21/82/12/.284. The mean is all powerful – regress in its presence…

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:18:39 +0000

Yes! I’ve always kind of thought that the difference between the number of hitters and pitchers in a league was critical in determining values, but none of the so called “experts” ever seem to acknowledge this.

Man, I could think about this stuff all day long.