We’re entering the safe zone for the Super-Two cutoff, and with that comes the promotion of many top prospects. The Astros made a big splash on Monday when they called up Carlos Correa, but later tonight another solid prospect from the Houston farm will make his big league debut. Right-hander Vincent Velasquez ranked 5th on my Astros Top 10 entering the season, although I honestly didn’t expect him to make an impact until 2016. He’s forced his way into the bigs with his performance, however, and he’ll join fellow 2015 call-up Lance McCullers in the Houston rotation. Like McCullers, Velasquez will make the jump straight from Double-A to the majors. That might cause some fantasy owners to be shy about grabbing him, but as Grey mentioned yesterday in his Velasquez fantasy, the 23-year-old is worth a flyer in pretty much all leagues thanks to his nasty stuff. McCullers is already close to cracking JB’s Top 50 starters, and Velasquez was a higher-ranked prospect entering the season. Can Velasquez pull off a McCullers or even surpass him for the rest of 2015? Let’s take a closer look in this week’s profile…
2015 Prospect List | Ranking |
---|---|
Razzball | #5 |
Baseball America | #4 |
Baseball Prospectus | #3 |
Fangraphs | #3 |
Minor League Statistics
Year | Age | Level | W | L | ERA | G | GS | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB/9 | K/9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 20 | A(ss) | 4 | 1 | 3.35 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 45.2 | 37 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 3.4 | 10.1 |
2013 | 21 | A/A+ | 9 | 6 | 3.54 | 28 | 19 | 3 | 124.2 | 104 | 53 | 49 | 9 | 3.0 | 10.3 |
2014 | 22 | A+ | 7 | 5 | 3.53 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 63.2 | 50 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 3.5 | 12.9 |
2015 | 23 | AA | 3 | 0 | 1.37 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 26.1 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3.1 | 12.6 |
There are two things that should jump out at you right away when looking at those numbers. One is the double-digit strikeout rates in every season. The other is the fact that Velasquez has pitched over 100 innings just once in the last four years. As I mentioned in the offseason blurb, Velasquez had Tommy John surgery that cost him development time early on, but also suffered a groin injury that sidelined him for a couple of months last season. He’s not exactly a durability concern, it’s just worth noting that he doesn’t have a lot of innings under his belt – something to monitor as the season wears on. The fact that he survived 50+ innings in Lancaster with an ERA under 4.00 gets him some bonus points.
Let’s get back to those strikeout rates, though. Velasquez has two plus pitches – his fastball and his changeup. The fourseam fastball sits low-to-mid 90s and most evaluators give Velasquez average marks when it comes to his command. The changeup sits about 10 MPH less than his fastball. That changeup, plus an average curveball, gives Velasquez some nice strikeout potential. And that’s where the little hairs stand up on the back of fantasy owners’ necks. I’ll say it again…nice strikeout potential. Did you feel it that time? Obviously Velasquez isn’t going to maintain a 12+ K/9 in the majors, but it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see him sit somewhere between eight and nine strikeouts per nine. If he can do that while keeping his walk rate in the 3-4 range, we’re looking at a decent addition to any fantasy rotation.
The walk rate is going to make or break Velasquez, just like any other pitcher really. If you are a fan of McCullers, it’s worth noting that Lance was rocking walk rates in the 4s and 5s prior to this season, and he’s managing a sub-2 BB/9 right now in the major leagues. As you can see above, Velasquez has never let his BB/9 creep above 3.5 in the minors. And of course, going hand-in-hand with the walks is the command of his fastball. Major league hitters will punish mistakes, even if they are 95 MPH mistakes. So while there’s upside here, there’s also the normal risk associated with a young arm who has only seen about five starts above A-ball.
What’s the Move?
Like a lot of these higher-end prospect profiles, the ship has probably sailed on Velasquez in dynasties. However, considering this was a rather big jump up in ETA, he might still be floating around in some shallower keepers and dynasties. AL-only leaguers should already own him by now, and on upside alone I’d add him in just about any format deeper than 10-teamers. There’s the potential for a top 75 starter the rest of the way if he sticks. Be prepared for some rough patches, especially if he’s trying to get by with just a fastball and change that he can’t fully command yet. There shouldn’t be much concern over Velasquez losing his spot if he pitches well, although it may be necessary for the Astros to monitor his workload given his injury history.