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When we started this series in the offseason, I asked for suggestions of who you’d like to see profiled. Alexander Reyes was one of the names that popped up immediately, so let’s take a look at the Cardinals’ right-hander as our first pick from the request line. Reyes checked in at #3 in my Cardinals Top 10 this offseason, just behind outfielder Stephen Piscotty and southpaw Marco Gonzales. The 20-year-old Reyes is off to a fantastic start this season with High-A Palm Beach and he’s a player that should get even more buzz when midseason prospect lists are launched over the next few weeks. Let’s see what all the fuss is about. WARNING: The velocity discussed in this post is not suitable for children.

2015 Prospect List Ranking
Razzball #3
Baseball America #1
Baseball Prospectus #3
Fangraphs #1

Minor League Statistics

Year Age Level W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9
2013 18 Rk 6 4 3.39 12 12 0 58.1 54 26 22 1 4.3 10.5
2014 19 A 7 7 3.63 21 21 0 109.0 82 54 44 6 5.0 11.3
2015 20 A+ 2 5 2.08 12 12 0 60.2 47 18 14 0 4.5 13.4

In a strong farm system, Reyes ranked in the top three across the board this offseason. He’ll likely move even higher on the lists where he wasn’t #1 already given that both Piscotty and Gonzales are close to majors. I had a hard time ranking Reyes ahead of Gonzales as he’s not as polished and much further away, but I also noted Reyes’ higher upside and possibly greater fantasy potential due to his strikeout numbers. I doubt that a top prospect in a high-profile system like the Cards’ is flying under the radar, but Reyes hasn’t pitched above High-A yet, so there’s a chance he’s not getting as much love in your league as the arms in AA and AAA. There’s some risk attached here and sometimes that scares folks off.

Part of that risk is his less-than-stellar control to this point. Averaging 4.6 BB/9 isn’t exactly ideal, and could lead to trouble down the road against more advanced competition. The good news is that the refinement we’re looking for also comes with time, and I’m certainly not going to bet against the Cardinals being able to help him develop the command and control he needs to maximize his potential. We may already be seeing some improvements, as his BB/9 has dipped under four in each of the last two months.

Outside of the walk rate, it’s pretty much all really good stuff to take away from this season so far. Reyes leads the Florida State League in strikeouts with 90 and his strikeout rate (13.4 K/9) is the highest of his young career. He has yet to allow a homer in over 60 innings. The already double-plus fastball is sitting mid-90s and every scouting report I’ve read this season has mentioned him hitting triple digits (even 101 at times) with the heater. The curveball is also a plus pitch, and there’s an average changeup in the works.

The FSL is notorious for being pitcher-friendly. Don’t let that sway you into thinking this success is some kind of a mirage though. It’s pretty awesome raw stuff. He’s passing with flying colors against High-A hitters while still being on the younger side at the level, so now it’s a matter of seeing what he can do against even tougher competition. That will be a true test, and one Reyes may begin tackling later this year if promoted to Double-A. If he keeps it up, Reyes could himself as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball heading into 2016.

What’s the Move?

Unfortunately there’s no 2015 value for redrafts, but I’m obviously buying in dynasties. As I mentioned earlier, the command will come in time but the raw stuff is already there and it’s nasty. You’ll have to be willing to wait another two years to see him in the majors, but this is a good chance to scoop him up before he really climbs the overall prospect lists. There’s #2 starter upside with the strikeout potential we crave in fantasy. The floor doesn’t look too bad either, as at the very least he could serve as a high-leverage reliever or even a good closer with easy gas.