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I start the podcast with what I thought was the excitement of Lucas Giolito’s no hitter on Thursday, but it turns out Ralph couldn’t have cared any less about it. I then try to lighten the mood and ask about his weekend, but it just sends him into a deeper spiral of despair. Amed Rosario and Luis Robert did start to pull him out of it, though, and then we really hit our stride by digging into the upcoming 2017 MLB Draft and First-Year Player Fantasy Baseball Drafts. We discuss if Hunter Greene is worthy of the #1 overall pick, and who the other top contenders for that slot are, including Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis, and MacKenzie Gore. We also debate the strategy of taking high risk/reward prospects, such as Austin Beck and Jordon Adell, over some of the safer college players, like Kyle Wright, JB Bukauskas, Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Prospect Podcast.

   
  1. Richard Davis says:
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    Sounds like this draft class is a more of an “upside” or “roll of the dice” type prospects, and not the immediate(or close to) contributors classes in the past few years. So if Otani and Robert were to be included if First Year Player Drafts for Dynasty, can I assume they would be #1 and #2 over all these players? Also, I’ve read that Greene would be a 1st round pick even if he was just a SS and NOT a pitcher. Does Greene have a chance to be a MLB level SS/Batter if for some reason he “busts” or blows his arm out a pitcher?

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @Richard Davis: I think your analysis is on target. The past two drafts we saw guys like Swanson, Bregman, Benintendi, Happ, Senzel, Ray, Lewis, and Collins get drafted early, while I don’t this year’s college hitters are quite as strong. And some of the best prospects are 1B (McKay, Pavin Smith, Evan White) or likely to end up there (Jake Burger). Haseley and Kendall do have that 5 category upside though in the OF, so I don’t think the class is completely devoid of talent. And of course you have the top college pitchers who will likely be selected well before the hitters. I’m just not sure there is an ace there, although I understand people being higher on them than I am. I might just be scared off from that Carson Fulmer, Dillon Tate, Tyler Jay class. What a disaster.

      I would take Otani #1 easy. By a mile. Then I’m leaning Robert at #2, although he might be closer to the rest of pack than the hype is indicating right now. Still a bit of a mystery. And yea, Greene is a first round talent as a power hitting SS too. He will definitely switch to hitting if pitching doesn’t work out.

  2. Luvdarooks says:
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    Does anyone know if Otani has a ” desired team(s) ” he’s leaning towards?

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @Luvdarooks: I don’t have any word on that.

      • Clogged Rosterman says:
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        @Halp:

        I doubt he wants to be a Red. I can’t remember them ever having a Japanese player, unless you count Wladimir Balentien.

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @Clogged Rosterman: True. My guess is he goes to a big market team or somewhere like San Diego.

    • Eduardo Almaguer says:
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      @Luvdarooks:

      Got to imagine the usual big-money teams will be in on him. Boston, Red Sox, LAD.

      • Eduardo Almaguer says:
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        @Eduardo Almaguer:

        Derp, mentioned Boston twice.

  3. Jared Culverhouse says:
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    5 minor league spots in a 14 team dynasty should I drop J.P. Crawford or Rowdy Tellez for Juan Soto?

    Rogelio Armentarios any thoughts on him?

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @Jared Culverhouse: 100% drop one of them for Soto, and I would drop Tellez. Both are struggling, but I rather stick with the shortstop and better athlete.

      And I like Armentarios. Don’t think he will be an ace, but I think his skill level is about even with pitchers on the back of top 100’s. And you have to respect Houston’s organization and eye for talent. Always nice to bet on a guy in a smart organization.

  4. Eduardo Almaguer says:
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    Halp, couple of trades went down in my 16-team dynasty. 15-man farms, OBP/QS. Don’t think any of them were egregious, but I’m always curious about hearing the opinion of others when it comes to dynasty trades with prospects.

    1) McCutchen, Jacob Nottingham, Brandon Nimmo

    for

    Vlad Jr, Luke Weaver

    2) V.Robles, D.Fisher, Tony Wolters, Jesse Chavez

    for

    Jose Abreu, T.Guerrieri, Billy McKinney

    Same manager in both trades getting the better prospects, and as you’d surmise, the teams gaining the better MLB players in win now mode.

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @Eduardo Almaguer: I think the Pirates would probably kill if they could get a deal anything like that for Cutch (obviously real life a different situation). If I were trading Vlad Jr., it would be for a stud, not a buy low. Having said that, if Cutch has a huge second half, which is possible, and that guy goes on to win the league, it would have been worth it.

      Second trade is decent, although the price is probably a little high for Abreu there. Not sure i would give up Robles and Fisher for him. I think in general the prospect price for win now production seems on the high end in your league. Which isn’t necessarily bad.

      • Eduardo Almaguer says:
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        @Halp:

        Cool, thank you!

        This is the second year of the league. It’s fascinating seeing the market find its center on prospect trades.

        Last year one of the first big trades was Scherzer for Snell and AJ Reed. Obviously the hype was a lot bigger on those last two prospects back then, but crazy to think what a steal that is today.

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @Eduardo Almaguer: ha, yea, that is why I said it isn’t necessarily a bad thing that win now prices are so high. Going too far the other way can ruin leagues.

          That deal was still a really good deal for the guy getting Scherzer even last year though. Scherzer’s value is/was much higher than Cutch and Abreu this year.

  5. mrbaseball says:
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    Bradley Zimmer – what can I expect in a full year from him – lets say next year

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @mrbaseball: If I owned Zimmer, I would plan for something like .245, 17 homers, and 22 steals for next year. Solid power/speed combo who will probably hurt your average.

      • mrbaseball says:
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        My team average is .220

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @mrbaseball: hahah … unfortunately, he still might hurt your average. His avg has a very low floor

  6. J-FOH says:
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    10 minutes in and I’m seeing a different Ralph from Tuesday. Maybe he needs me to keep him stable

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @J-FOH: He didn’t get his energy drink until about halfway through. But a tired Ralph is still better than 99.9% of the podcast hosts out there! :)

      And we are still awaiting your long anticipated prospect podcast debut …

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Halp: long anticipated? yeah the “prospects for dumbeys” segment is coming soon. Like a summer blockbuster….video straight to VHS release

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @J-FOH: Don’t sell yourself short, those “For Dummies” books are bestsellers

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Halp: I’m not! I’m relatable to the gas station attendant who plays fantasy baseball

  7. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    great write up,thanks

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @AL KOHOLIC: thanks, AL! Appreciate that

  8. J-FOH says:
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    Have you read up on Hans Crouse. I love that name

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @J-FOH: ha, sounds like a character from Beerfest

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Halp: I just watched video on him. I hate his delivery. He can throw smoke but I beat my head against the wall with these pitchers that dont drive that shoulder to the plate and cant bend at the waist.

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @J-FOH: Yea, his delivery is a lot of arm

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Halp: Maybe I’m too old school but I want to see a dirty Tom Seaver knee or that bend of the waist and the shoulder facing the catchers mitt like Nolan Ryan. Thats not talent thats good mechanics and finishing your pitch

            • Halp

              Halp says:
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              @J-FOH: it’s definitely a legit concern.

  9. J-FOH says:
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    Hey Halp, why aren’t you an A-hole?

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @J-FOH: ha, not too sure

  10. Rosscoe says:
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    Amazing job as usual guys. Thanks for getting into the draft. It’s my favourite time of year these days.

    Agree with both of you to some extent. I think Wright actually has Ace upside. He’s like Thor, deadlifting huge weights and boosting his velo each offseason. And I only want McKay if he signs as a bat somewhere like Cincy, who’s probably stupid enough to pick him as a pitcher.

    Apart from that, I’m loving Lewis the most for the raw tools and upside. I think he could sneak into the top 2 or 3 picks.

    I do think Bukauskas can be a front line starter though. He’s stereotyped as a reliever, but I think he’s only a changeup away, which makes him a perfect candidate to go to Tampa at 4.

    Crab out

    • Halp

      Halp says:
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      @Rosscoe: thanks rosscoe! And great breakdown. Definitely made a great case for taking the college starters and liking their upside. Maybe im underplaying wright’s upside.

      • Rosscoe says:
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        @Halp: Thanks Halp. It’s all guesswork right now. Value your opinion. I think we all wish there were more quality college bats in this draft. Could well be the year to take a chance on HS upside. Will be interesting to see what the clubs think on draft day.

        • Halp

          Halp says:
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          @Rosscoe: Yea, with college bats being one of the safer bets in the draft, and this being a relatively weak class, it just makes everything much more risky. Even the “safe” college starters don’t even eclipse 100 IP, so who knows how they will hold up under like double the workload. College hitters just don’t have that concern at all really.

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