Comments on: Predicting Risky Pitchers – Take Deux

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 16:59:51 +0000

@Cecil ate a whole nother Fielder: Completed it this weekend. Goes up tomorrow morning!

By: Cecil ate a whole nother Fielder

Cecil ate a whole nother Fielder — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 16:29:40 +0000

Hey Rudy – with drafts soon starting in earnest, any word on when the 2010 risky pitcher “cliffhanger” will be making the scene? It is a great data indicator (regardless of any 2009 debatables), especially when choosing between 2 similarly ranked pitchers. Thanks!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:56:33 +0000

@Rhymenoceros: My brain couldn't fit in Kevin Mench's hat if I injected it daily with HGH for a century. Fingers crossed on my predictions this year... @airlifting: I think inexperienced pitchers are more prone to injuries - there's a sort of Darwinian aspect to it where those that have survived 2 or more full seasons as an MLB starter is more likely to survive a 3rd than someone who just has 1 under their belt and that pitcher is more likely to survive a 2nd than a pitcher who hasn't done it before. So I think throwing in guys like Felix Hernandez who've pitched in the majors for a couple of years with Cesar Carillo and Bud Norris because they share a 40+ IP criteria is a bit faulty. The faultiest item is really how he gauges success which I noted in my post. But Verducci was ahead of this and who's to say I would've even researched this further if it wasn't for reading his earlier articles...

By: airlifting

airlifting — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:03:13 +0000

so what is your ultimate opinion on the verducci effect?

By: Rhymenoceros

Rhymenoceros — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 15:25:24 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: I'm sure your brain would fill Kevin Mench's hat. Most of that shizz doesn't make a lick of sense because I slept through most of my statistics class in college. However, I like the changes you made to the criteria. Hopefully it gets you closer to knowing which type of pitcher has the most risk.

By: Dingo

Dingo — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 06:02:59 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: I'd be more worried if you valued different guys same...ly?

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:35:06 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Quite

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:22:57 +0000

@Steve: You’d expect us to value different guys differently. It’s when we view the same guys differently that might be surprising

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 23:59:12 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Oh - anyone who's been here for any length of time knows that you guys approach things differently - and that's a big part of what makes Razzball so good. Nothing more than you guys valuing different guys differently

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 23:52:01 +0000

@DrEasy: Well, I'm not beating myself up too much on those three. But Greinke and Lester...ouch. @Steve: Grey seems really opinionated but he's open-minded enough to take advantage of a bargain. It's all about risk/reward with injured pitchers and not taking on too much risk. If someone took Peavy AND Bedard, they are nuts. But if one of those guys is around late, it's at least tempting. See 2009 - Carpenter, Cris.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 23:27:35 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Just so you don't think you're being blindsided, I just asked Grey in the other post about your (apparent) divergence of opinion on Peavy and Bedard.

By: DrEasy

DrEasy — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 22:55:10 +0000

Rudy, could it be that you’re selling yourself short in cases where the predicted disaster did happen, but was masked by the overall performance through the year? Johnny Cueto (good first half, disaster second half), or Scott Baker (bad first half, nice recovery the second half) comes to mind.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 19:34:59 +0000

@Real Tom: I've got my projections in order but haven't compared them yet to ADPs. I honestly try to go into the process as stupid as possible (forget past performance - see what the data says) and then investigate when i see discrepancies. I'll have a post closer to prime draft season where I list top bargain + overpriced players. I'm looking at my SPs in descending order of Point Shares (you can see them under 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings) and not a lot of players are making me feel fuzzy. But if Sabathia, Haren, Greinke, Verlander, or F-Her were available in the 4th/5th round, I'd feel pretty happy. I can also see taking a bounceback pitcher like Peavy or Bedard in the 10th round or so...

By: Real Tom

Real Tom — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 19:21:55 +0000

Rudy, what top three or four pitchers are YOU targeting this year, based on both risk and draft value?

For example, I want Bills, Nolasco and Sanchez on most of my teams, because I think they’re relatively good value at their ADP, and they balance stability and upside. Bills and Nolasco more because I need top pitchers, and Sanchez because he’s great value.

Who will you be targeting?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:19:00 +0000

@Bob: No doubt that pitchers are more risky than hitters. I'd say most pitchers who have 2-3+ full years under their belt and are < 35 are about as risk-free as you're going to get. That said, hitters have their risk too. My philosophy is that waiting until 8th round to take pitchers means you might have to reach for hitters in rounds 3-7 and then are dependent on SP/RP bargains for much of the remaining draft. I'd rather get 2-3 solid SPs in rounds 2-7 and then have the flexibility to zag when the others zig.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:13:10 +0000

Also, Francisco Liriano could easily be on this list.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:11:32 +0000

@Ian: What's interesting to note is that Josh Johnson's fastball sped up nearly 2 mph while his slider improved 1 mph since recovering from Tommy John's surgery. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see all those pitchers on that list. @Rudy Gamble: Wowzer. This article is impeccably written with good hindsight analysis. I would swear you work with research papers on a fairly consistent basis. Great job. Looking forward to the Top 20 Riskiest Pitchers article.

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:42:20 +0000

I’d like to see a chart featuring who ISN”T a risky pitcher. As far as I’m concerned, they all are. That’s why I won’t even think about drafting starters until the 8th round. That way, I can throw them away if the Peavyize me, like last year.

By: mrbaseball

mrbaseball — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:38:30 +0000

too many charts for me – I kind of like the way you did your charts last year Rudy Gamble – 20 risky Pitchers for 2009 –

I see Andy Sonnanstine headlines the charts but even if you did not make the charts who would be crazy enough to draft him

By: Ian

Ian — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:32:07 +0000

I fear that some young dudes that I’m quite fond of (that didn’t come out right) will make this list. Hanson, Wain-O, Josh Johnson, and Brett Anderson seem like likely suspects.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:30:44 +0000

Thanks all for the compliments. Will crank out the ‘cliffhanger’ of the risky 20 in the next week or so!

@sean: If the ‘skill measuring’ stats don’t change, I think any dropoffs are flukes. Over time, I think some players have shown that they can outperform the average FIP, BABIP, etc. – for example, I think Javier Vazquez always has a better FIP than ERA – but it’s a strong indicator for most. Same ‘fluke’ status goes for guys that overperform like J.A. Happ…

By: sean

sean — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:50:22 +0000

@Rudy: the area that I’m most concerned about is where pitchers: (1) meet the criteria for “risky”;
(2) season performance puts their peripherals basically in line with career norms; and
(3) they suffer a drop-off in ERA and WHIP but not in “skill-measuring” sabermetric stats like FIP, xFIP, and the others.

If we look at last year’s list, Nolasco screams at me. Billingsley, Hamels, and Garza also come to mind. These four were all guys on everyone’s list. They didn’t really check out as risky pitchers, but they failed our fantasy teams.

Any advice?

By: eltoo

eltoo — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:45:10 +0000

@brad: smaht*

By: brad

brad — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:43:00 +0000

my boy’s wicked smart

By: Tarasco'sSecretStash

Tarasco'sSecretStash — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:37:06 +0000

Thanks Rudy, this is excellent.

By: Critter Nagurski

Critter Nagurski — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:20:11 +0000

The best thing about this post is that it makes me feel less bad for spending the time I do with player data.

Why not just run a survival model – it would be a lot more robust and convincing than what you have here, and it seems like you have the data

By: Frank Rizzo

Frank Rizzo — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:21:54 +0000

I look forward to your list of 20 Rudy. Great stuff. Numbers don’t lie……until they do.

By: AL KOHOLIC

AL KOHOLIC — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:15:14 +0000

and you wander why i drink?couldnt get it sober,great work and waiting on the follow up

By: The Hebrew Hammer

The Hebrew Hammer — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:11:10 +0000

I ignored the risky pitchers post last year at my own peril. I will not make the same mistake twice.

By: Cheese

Cheese — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 13:18:06 +0000

Wow, great job Rudy. Awesome post, and my brain definitely hurts after that one. Excited for the top 20 risky pitchers list! Keep up the nice work.