As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.
Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.
Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.
Catchers
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Buster Posey | 397.56 | 400 | 1 | 1 | 0.691 | 0.651 | 0.61 |
Kyle Schwarber | 303.24 | -1 | 2 | 100 | 0.618 | -0.200 | n/a |
Jonathan Lucroy | 299.16 | 347 | 3 | 2 | 0.588 | 0.638 | 13.79 |
Brian McCann | 293.61 | 254 | 4 | 9 | 0.607 | 0.516 | 15.59 |
Salvador Perez | 285 | 255 | 5 | 7 | 0.542 | 0.467 | 11.76 |
Russell Martin | 259.05 | 244 | 6 | 10 | 0.564 | 0.457 | 6.17 |
Stephen Vogt | 252.85 | 266 | 7 | 6 | 0.545 | 0.500 | 4.94 |
Travis d’Arnaud | 241.51 | 95 | 8 | 36 | 0.589 | 0.347 | 154 |
Yadier Molina | 233.97 | 325 | 9 | 4 | 0.513 | 0.559 | 28 |
J.T. Realmuto | 224.63 | 271 | 10 | 5 | 0.499 | 0.497 | 17.11 |
Derek Norris | 223.44 | 136 | 11 | 21 | 0.463 | 0.297 | 64.29 |
Yasmani Grandal | 223.21 | 255 | 12 | 8 | 0.526 | 0.558 | 12.47 |
Starting with the backstop, here are the top twelve catchers based on my 2016 preseason projections. Buster Posey was a relatively easy pick as the top catcher, but I came within three points in my projections. If this were The Price Is Right, I think I’d get to reach my hand into Bob Barker’s jacket pocket a pull out a hundy. Beat it Drew Carey. Sadly Kyle Schwarber was lost for the season due to injury. My biggest swing and miss here was probably Travis d’Arnaud, but I don’t think I was the only one that overestimated his 2016 potential. I’d like to see what he can do with a healthy season. Derek Norris also seems to have under-performed, but at least I had him outside the top ten.
Here are the catchers that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top twelve catcher based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Wilson Ramos | 210.91 | 335 | 13 | 3 | 0.501 | 0.641 | 37.04 |
Matt Wieters | 204.53 | 240 | 15 | 11 | 0.509 | 0.518 | 14.79 |
Welington Castillo | 184.69 | 203 | 20 | 12 | 0.471 | 0.444 | 9.06 |
No discussion about catchers would be complete if it neglected to mention Gary Sanchez. Playing in only 53 games he compiled 229 plate appearances and 178 points. The only reason he’s not in the top twelve list above is due to his limited playing time. His PPPA was 0.777, which was far better than even Buster Posey. In fact only seven hitters posted a better value. While I don’t expect he would have been maintained that level of production over a full season, he certainly belongs in the preseason discussion for top catcher.
First Basemen
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Paul Goldschmidt | 469.58 | 479 | 1 | 6 | 0.742 | 0.680 | 1.97 |
Miguel Cabrera | 449.88 | 498 | 2 | 5 | 0.773 | 0.733 | 9.66 |
Anthony Rizzo | 448.94 | 499 | 3 | 4 | 0.700 | 0.738 | 10.03 |
Edwin Encarnacion | 433.38 | 500 | 4 | 3 | 0.775 | 0.713 | 13.32 |
Albert Pujols | 410.56 | 441 | 5 | 10 | 0.715 | 0.678 | 6.9 |
Joey Votto | 410.49 | 504 | 6 | 2 | 0.684 | 0.744 | 18.55 |
Jose Abreu | 408.71 | 395 | 7 | 13 | 0.651 | 0.568 | 3.47 |
Prince Fielder | 403.26 | 159 | 8 | 46 | 0.672 | 0.430 | n/a |
Freddie Freeman | 382.15 | 461 | 9 | 8 | 0.639 | 0.665 | 17.1 |
David Ortiz | 376.56 | 537 | 10 | 1 | 0.711 | 0.858 | 29.88 |
Eric Hosmer | 372.4 | 374 | 11 | 17 | 0.590 | 0.561 | 0.43 |
Adrian Gonzalez | 367.1 | 346 | 12 | 19 | 0.620 | 0.547 | 6.1 |
Edging Mike Trout out by a few points, I actually had Paul Goldschmidt as my top ranked hitter coming into the 2016 season. Seems I was wrong on that call. It isn’t the first time and won’t be the last. I was pretty close on my Goldschmidt projections though, missing the mark by less than ten points. Unfortunately I under projected on a bunch of other first basemen. Or perhaps those players just over performed!
Even though David Ortiz was a DH last year, I am lumping him in here with the first basemen since he played one game at the position. And guess what, he finished as the top ranked player in this list. These projections weren’t too bad except for maybe Prince Fielder, but his season was so bad that he retired. So I’m giving myself a pass on that one. Joey Votto bested my projections by nearly 100 points finishing second right behind Ortiz. The truth is, projecting rankings for Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion and Goldschmidt is like trying rank four equal objects. All fools task. It’s like putting Helen Keller in a round room and telling her to find the corner.
I was right on with Eric Hosmer, but it seems a bunch of other players beat out their projections, pushing ahead of him in the final rankings.
Here are the first basemen that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top twelve 1B based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Carlos Santana | 356.58 | 471 | 14 | 7 | 0.596 | 0.685 | 24.29 |
Hanley Ramirez | 305.91 | 422 | 16 | 11 | 0.641 | 0.681 | 27.5 |
Wil Myers | 252.6 | 403 | 26 | 12 | 0.519 | 0.596 | 37.32 |
Second Basemen
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Jose Altuve | 420.3 | 560 | 1 | 1 | 0.628 | 0.785 | 24.95 |
Robinson Cano | 383.47 | 514 | 2 | 2 | 0.615 | 0.719 | 25.39 |
Ian Kinsler | 376.95 | 450 | 3 | 7 | 0.601 | 0.663 | 16.23 |
Brian Dozier | 354.94 | 486 | 4 | 4 | 0.557 | 0.705 | 26.97 |
Daniel Murphy | 335.63 | 496 | 5 | 3 | 0.612 | 0.852 | 32.33 |
Ben Zobrist | 333.17 | 424 | 6 | 9 | 0.610 | 0.676 | 21.42 |
Jason Kipnis | 323.42 | 391 | 7 | 10 | 0.531 | 0.572 | 17.28 |
Anthony Rendon | 323.23 | 391 | 8 | 10 | 0.579 | 0.604 | 17.33 |
Dustin Pedroia | 323.1 | 454 | 9 | 6 | 0.593 | 0.651 | 28.83 |
Rougned Odor | 323 | 376 | 10 | 12 | 0.579 | 0.594 | 14.1 |
Dee Gordon | 321.1 | 156 | 11 | 30 | 0.514 | 0.452 | n/a |
Neil Walker | 310.35 | 269 | 12 | 19 | 0.553 | 0.587 | n/a |
Well I had the right guy as the top second baseman, but my projections fell quite short. Jose Altuve scored 560 points. Only Mookie Betts and Nolan Arenado had more. My projection was 420.3 points. I was off by about 33 percent. Going down the list, except for Dee Gordon who served an 80-game suspension and Neil Walker who spent extended time on the disabled list, my projections were too low for everyone in this list. I guess I didn’t have high expectations for men patrolling second base. It seems I was off by that factor of about thirty percent for all of second basemen. Note to self.
Here are the second basemen that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top twelve 2B based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Jean Segura | 255.13 | 458 | 20 | 5 | 0.462 | 0.664 | 44.29 |
DJ LeMahieu | 287.65 | 436 | 15 | 8 | 0.488 | 0.695 | 34.17 |
Jonathan Schoop | 254.24 | 334 | 21 | 12 | 0.550 | 0.516 | 23.88 |
Looks like I underestimated Mean Jean Segura.
Third Basemen
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Josh Donaldson | 447.22 | 543 | 1 | 2 | 0.695 | 0.778 | 17.64 |
Manny Machado | 443.81 | 470 | 2 | 5 | 0.698 | 0.675 | 5.57 |
Nolan Arenado | 426.53 | 566 | 3 | 1 | 0.694 | 0.813 | 24.64 |
Matt Carpenter | 381.97 | 364 | 4 | 13 | 0.598 | 0.647 | 4.94 |
Kyle Seager | 373.94 | 457 | 5 | 6 | 0.594 | 0.676 | 18.18 |
Adrian Beltre | 371.17 | 485 | 6 | 4 | 0.658 | 0.758 | 23.47 |
Kris Bryant | 360.56 | 501 | 7 | 3 | 0.589 | 0.717 | 28.03 |
Todd Frazier | 349.24 | 376 | 8 | 13 | 0.568 | 0.565 | 7.12 |
Evan Longoria | 336.94 | 411 | 9 | 8 | 0.540 | 0.600 | 18.02 |
Mike Moustakas | 326.98 | 72 | 10 | 49 | 0.571 | 0.637 | n/a |
Maikel Franco | 320.52 | 342 | 11 | 16 | 0.605 | 0.543 | 6.28 |
Matt Duffy | 307 | -2 | 12 | 71 | 0.518 | 0.453 | n/a |
It seems that my trend of low projections carried into my 3B projections as I was off by about twenty percent on average. Matt Carpenter was my most accurate projection here, but with so many other third basemen beating my projections, I was off by a fair amount with his positional ranking.
Here are the third basemen that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top twelve 3B based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Justin Turner | 266.57 | 398 | 19 | 9 | 0.591 | 0.640 | 33.02 |
Anthony Rendon | 323.23 | 391 | 11 | 12 | 0.579 | 0.604 | 17.33 |
Shortstops
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Carlos Correa | 389.49 | 380 | 1 | 4 | 0.676 | 0.576 | 2.5 |
Xander Bogaerts | 332.24 | 446 | 2 | 1 | 0.528 | 0.620 | 25.51 |
Francisco Lindor | 321.18 | 428 | 3 | 2 | 0.533 | 0.628 | 24.96 |
Elvis Andrus | 303.08 | 364 | 4 | 6 | 0.495 | 0.645 | 16.74 |
Troy Tulowitzki | 301.62 | 300 | 5 | 14 | 0.591 | 0.551 | 0.54 |
Corey Seager | 292.46 | 423 | 6 | 3 | 0.585 | 0.616 | 30.86 |
Andrelton Simmons | 288.86 | 257 | 7 | 20 | 0.507 | 0.533 | 12.4 |
Erick Aybar | 285.74 | 166 | 8 | 30 | 0.493 | 0.364 | 72.13 |
Jhonny Peralta | 285.53 | 149 | 9 | 32 | 0.517 | 0.476 | n/a |
Starlin Castro | 285.44 | 297 | 10 | 15 | 0.487 | 0.488 | 3.89 |
Alcides Escobar | 283.66 | 282 | 11 | 16 | 0.457 | 0.420 | 0.59 |
Alexei Ramirez | 282.42 | 207 | 12 | 26 | 0.496 | 0.410 | 36.43 |
Shortstop is the only position that didn’t have a player top 500 points. Xander Bogaerts led all with 446 points. I projected only 332. I predicted that Carlos Correa would take the top spot with 389 points. He ended the season with 380. Not too shabby. Too bad I wasn’t a bit more accurate with the rest of the shortstops. I pegged Troy Tulowitzki, but was off by 127 points for Francisco Lindor.
Here are the shortstops that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top twelve SS based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Jonathan Villar | 147.94 | 375 | 37 | 5 | 0.427 | 0.556 | 60.54 |
Brandon Crawford | 261.11 | 342 | 17 | 7 | 0.491 | 0.549 | 23.65 |
Didi Gregorius | 264.67 | 337 | 15 | 8 | 0.491 | 0.569 | 21.46 |
Aledmys Diaz | n/a | 329 | n/a | 9 | n/a | 0.718 | n/a |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 262.93 | 323 | 16 | 10 | 0.502 | 0.569 | 18.59 |
Brad Miller | 245 | 321 | 20 | 11 | 0.479 | 0.534 | 23.67 |
Addison Russell | 227.69 | 317 | 25 | 12 | 0.439 | 0.530 | 28.17 |
Totally missed to boat on Jonathan Villar! Heck, I missed most of the shortstops ranked between five and twelve.
Outfielders
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Mike Trout | 467.39 | 538 | 1 | 2 | 0.718 | 0.790 | 13.12 |
Bryce Harper | 452.39 | 401 | 2 | 10 | 0.743 | 0.640 | 12.82 |
Jose Bautista | 445.38 | 315 | 3 | 33 | 0.768 | 0.609 | 41.39 |
Mookie Betts | 432.62 | 589 | 4 | 1 | 0.675 | 0.807 | 26.55 |
Andrew McCutchen | 428.64 | 347 | 5 | 26 | 0.673 | 0.514 | 23.53 |
A.J. Pollock | 387.3 | 30 | 6 | 162 | 0.645 | 0.652 | n/a |
Giancarlo Stanton | 380.65 | 246 | 7 | 55 | 0.728 | 0.525 | 54.74 |
Jason Heyward | 374.03 | 255 | 8 | 50 | 0.602 | 0.431 | 46.68 |
Adam Jones | 369.12 | 370 | 9 | 20 | 0.604 | 0.551 | 0.24 |
Michael Brantley | 368.77 | 21 | 10 | 174 | 0.689 | 0.488 | n/a |
Charlie Blackmon | 367.68 | 474 | 11 | 3 | 0.581 | 0.743 | 22.43 |
Ryan Braun | 359.97 | 412 | 12 | 7 | 0.651 | 0.730 | 12.63 |
Justin Upton | 359.14 | 312 | 13 | 35 | 0.593 | 0.498 | 15.11 |
Yoenis Cespedes | 358.53 | 366 | 14 | 22 | 0.593 | 0.674 | 2.04 |
Nelson Cruz | 351.42 | 443 | 15 | 4 | 0.594 | 0.664 | 20.67 |
J.D. Martinez | 347.28 | 306 | 16 | 38 | 0.574 | 0.592 | 13.49 |
Melky Cabrera | 335.36 | 405 | 17 | 9 | 0.560 | 0.630 | 17.2 |
Starling Marte | 335.22 | 311 | 18 | 36 | 0.550 | 0.589 | 7.79 |
Josh Reddick | 334.73 | 239 | 19 | 59 | 0.616 | 0.546 | n/a |
Carlos Gonzalez | 328.93 | 400 | 20 | 11 | 0.629 | 0.633 | 17.77 |
Lorenzo Cain | 325.13 | 233 | 21 | 62 | 0.574 | 0.537 | n/a |
Adam Eaton | 323.73 | 386 | 22 | 15 | 0.543 | 0.552 | 16.13 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 320.51 | 104 | 23 | 109 | 0.552 | 0.495 | n/a |
Nick Markakis | 319.4 | 368 | 24 | 21 | 0.516 | 0.538 | 13.21 |
Yasiel Puig | 316.42 | 189 | 25 | 73 | 0.593 | 0.514 | 67.42 |
Ben Revere | 315.12 | 168 | 26 | 81 | 0.533 | 0.450 | n/a |
Gregory Polanco | 313.47 | 355 | 27 | 24 | 0.519 | 0.606 | 11.7 |
David Peralta | 311.96 | 83 | 28 | 121 | 0.567 | 0.454 | n/a |
Kole Calhoun | 310.66 | 381 | 29 | 16 | 0.524 | 0.567 | 18.46 |
Matt Kemp | 310.37 | 392 | 30 | 13 | 0.535 | 0.583 | 20.82 |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 309.03 | 317 | 31 | 32 | 0.550 | 0.520 | 2.51 |
Curtis Granderson | 308.22 | 356 | 32 | 24 | 0.537 | 0.562 | 13.42 |
Matt Holliday | 307.85 | 258 | 33 | 47 | 0.641 | 0.606 | 19.32 |
Christian Yelich | 306.34 | 398 | 34 | 12 | 0.521 | 0.604 | 20.03 |
Brett Gardner | 306 | 303 | 35 | 40 | 0.530 | 0.481 | 0.99 |
Hunter Pence | 305.92 | 242 | 36 | 56 | 0.588 | 0.548 | 26.41 |
Hanley Ramirez | 305.91 | 422 | 37 | 5 | 0.641 | 0.681 | 27.51 |
Alex Gordon | 303.43 | 189 | 38 | 75 | 0.548 | 0.374 | n/a |
Carlos Gomez | 302.52 | 172 | 39 | 79 | 0.557 | 0.382 | 75.88 |
George Springer | 300.86 | 412 | 40 | 7 | 0.564 | 0.554 | 26.98 |
You can never go wrong with putting Mike Trout at the top of your outfield projections. Looks I was wrong. Mookie Betts earned the top spot scoring a whopping 589 points and leading all hitters. Unfortunately I projected him to score only 432 points. Some outfielders that I did well on include Yoenis Cespedes, Adam Jones and Jacoby Ellsbury. One guy I really undervalued was George Springer. I had him at 40 and he finished seventh.
Here are the outfielders that I did not have in my preseason top twelve that ended the season a top 40 OF based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Mark Trumbo | 263.91 | 415 | 59 | 6 | 0.525 | 0.622 | 36.41 |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | 217.25 | 389 | 77 | 14 | 0.502 | 0.612 | 44.15 |
Ian Desmond | 247.07 | 376 | 65 | 17 | 0.431 | 0.555 | 34.29 |
Stephen Piscotty | 278.95 | 371 | 53 | 18 | 0.564 | 0.573 | 24.81 |
Khris Davis | 270.43 | 362 | 54 | 23 | 0.583 | 0.593 | 25.30 |
It looks like Mark Trumbo dropped a few more Trumbombs than I was expecting.
Starting Pitchers
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPS | PPS | % |
Clayton Kershaw | 703.8 | 523 | 1 | 16 | 22.077 | 22.739 | n/a |
Max Scherzer | 631.7 | 738 | 2 | 1 | 19.588 | 21.706 | 14.4 |
Chris Sale | 602.65 | 627 | 3 | 5 | 19.675 | 19.594 | 3.88 |
Madison Bumgarner | 586.53 | 659 | 4 | 3 | 18.255 | 18.306 | 11 |
Jake Arrieta | 580.99 | 550 | 5 | 12 | 18.082 | 17.742 | 5.63 |
David Price | 580.56 | 579 | 6 | 9 | 18.501 | 16.543 | 0.27 |
Corey Kluber | 563.93 | 610 | 7 | 8 | 17.903 | 19.063 | 7.55 |
Stephen Strasburg | 547.96 | 459 | 8 | 24 | 18.734 | 19.125 | 19.38 |
Zack Greinke | 542.97 | 361 | 9 | 58 | 17.237 | 13.370 | 50.41 |
Felix Hernandez | 533.68 | 329 | 10 | 72 | 16.873 | 13.172 | 62.21 |
Dallas Keuchel | 522.63 | 330 | 11 | 71 | 16.655 | 12.692 | 58.37 |
Jacob deGrom | 516.84 | 354 | 12 | 63 | 16.808 | 13.111 | 46 |
Jon Lester | 510.15 | 614 | 13 | 7 | 16.129 | 18.606 | 16.91 |
Gerrit Cole | 508.53 | 214 | 14 | 118 | 16.468 | 10.190 | n/a |
Chris Archer | 507.74 | 447 | 15 | 31 | 15.561 | 13.545 | 13.59 |
Carlos Carrasco | 503.54 | 382 | 16 | 49 | 16.451 | 15.280 | 31.82 |
Matt Harvey | 501.54 | 138 | 17 | 148 | 17.518 | 8.118 | n/a |
Johnny Cueto | 499.44 | 614 | 18 | 6 | 16.306 | 19.188 | 18.66 |
Cole Hamels | 486.39 | 516 | 19 | 18 | 15.377 | 16.125 | 5.74 |
Sonny Gray | 477.42 | 166 | 20 | 139 | 15.214 | 7.545 | n/a |
Danny Salazar | 463.46 | 355 | 21 | 63 | 15.195 | 14.200 | 30.55 |
Noah Syndergaard | 456.83 | 530 | 22 | 15 | 15.890 | 17.097 | 13.81 |
Jose Quintana | 455.24 | 492 | 23 | 21 | 14.169 | 15.394 | 7.47 |
Jeff Samardzija | 449.58 | 452 | 24 | 27 | 14.442 | 13.294 | 0.54 |
Garrett Richards | 447.69 | 73 | 25 | 177 | 14.923 | 12.167 | n/a |
James Shields | 447.03 | 207 | 26 | 120 | 14.080 | 6.273 | 116 |
Tyson Ross | 441.57 | -1 | 27 | 232 | 14.360 | -1.000 | n/a |
Francisco Liriano | 440.07 | 305 | 28 | 83 | 14.548 | 9.242 | 44.29 |
Jordan Zimmermann | 431.4 | 191 | 29 | 131 | 13.427 | 10.053 | n/a |
Collin McHugh | 428.62 | 397 | 30 | 40 | 14.345 | 12.030 | 7.96 |
For the last two plus seasons I have been touting Clayton Kershaw as the top overall player in points leagues. I said it last year and even though he fell short, I was still correct. The only reason he fell short was due to the fact that he spent 74 days on the disabled list.
Here are the starting pitchers that I did not have in my preseason top thirty that ended the season a top 30 SP based on points.
Player | Projected Points | Points | Projected Rank | Rank | Projected PPPA | PPPA | % |
Justin Verlander | 392 | 666 | 44 | 2 | 13.81 | 19.58 | 41.14 |
Rick Porcello | 376.14 | 645 | 48 | 4 | 12.538 | 19.54545455 | 41.68 |
Kyle Hendricks | 373.79 | 551 | 50 | 11 | 13.23150442 | 17.21875 | 32.16 |
J.A. Happ | 332.46 | 531 | 75 | 13 | 11.76849558 | 16.59375 | 37.38 |
Masahiro Tanaka | 415.87 | 530 | 34 | 14 | 15.616 | 17.09677419 | 21.53 |
Tanner Roark | 269.62 | 520 | 117 | 18 | 12.92521572 | 15.29411765 | 48.15 |
Aaron Sanchez | n/a | 512 | n/a | 20 | n/a | 17.06666667 | n/a |
It seems Justin Verlander found his flux capacitor and went back to 2011. Ok, well maybe not that good. It was more like a cross between 2012 and 2013. Either way he made my projections look silly. How could I not have the second best finisher in my preseason top 30? Simple. He has been pretty shitty the previous two seasons and there was no glaring reason to think he’d radically change course. He fooled me, my software and many other so-called experts.
I had Rick Porcello in the top fifty. Does that count? I was only off by about 269 points and 44 ranking spots. Cut a guy some slack. This year’s gut influenced rankings are going to help me identify some diamonds in the rough.
Truth be told I’m not exactly sure what the best methods are for evaluating projections. There’s a lot of mathematically mumbo jumbo out there that I’m still absorbing. The purpose of this post was really just to give you a little insight into my results. I have yet to discern the relevance, but out of the 130 players highlighted in the positional data tables above (excluding the players that missed the cut), here is a breakdown of how far off I was with their points-based projections. Actually it’s out of 112 players since 18 of them received an “n/a” due to extended time on the DL.
Less than 5 percent off: 17 players
Less than 10 percent off: 30 players
Less than 15 percent off: 48 players
Less than 20 percent off: 68 players
Less than 25 percent off: 78 players
Less than 30 percent off: 89 players
Less than 50 percent off: 98 players
More than 50 percent off: 14 players
Good luck making sense out of that. Either way, I’ve learned a bit from this exercise and intend to apply my newly acquired knowledge to my 2017 projections and rankings.