Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Seriously, how underrated were Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch?! When it comes to the top Hip-Hop artists of the early 90′s, how many were better than these guys? Basically none of them. I mean, god damn, Good Vibrations is so good. Amirite? No? Oh okay. That’s probably true, Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch were actually pretty awful. Although I won’t can’t lie, Good Vibrations is pretty damn catchy. Luckily for Marky Mark, he moved on to bigger and better things like this, and this. Come on, who doesn’t wanna be Dirk Diggler when they grow up? Ahh, the American Dream… Anywho, I’m going to cover a couple players who have recently also moved on to somewhere new and should be on to bigger and better things. How about that segue (not to be confused with segway)? Yep, nailed it! Anyway, if you’ve already drafted, it may not be too late to try and make an offer for these guys before the word gets out. Well, I guess if your league-mates are smart, i.e. reading this, then its probably too late and they are onto your plan by now. Au Shizz!

As always with these points leagues posts, remember that the information mentioned here should be of use to you not only in points leagues, but in other leagues as well, because a great player in points leagues will probably be a great player in other leagues and vice versa.

Welp, lets get this party (possibly NSFW) started!

The player I’m most excited about changing teams over the winter, for the sake of fantasy value, very well could be Mark TrumboWhile Trumbo has averaged a little over 30 bombs each of the past three years, I expect this number to rise, as he gets the pleasure of leaving a home environment that heavily favors pitching and heads to one that is much much friendly to hitters, especially power hitters. And if there is one thing we know that Trumbo can do, it’s hit the long ball. Shizz, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he hits 40 or more dingers, playing half his games in the desert at Chase Field. To put his power into perspective, over the last three years, only four players have hit more home runs than Trumbo’s 95. These players are Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre, and Jay Bruce. That’s pretty good company. It is especially so when you consider that the latest any of these other 4 players are getting drafted, on average, in the middle of the 3rd round and Marky Mark Trumbo isn’t typically taken until about 3 rounds later. That sounds like good value to me.  Yeah, I know he strikes out with the best of them and doesn’t provide a whole lot of batting average to go along with an almost complete lack of speed, but I don’t care. If I were in a 5×5 league, these things might matter more to me, but in points leagues, I couldn’t really care less. Homers are king in most points leagues and there aren’t many guys who can provide that better than Trumbo. On top of that, there are reasons to suggest that Trumbo may improve in other areas as well, most notably, batting average. Trumbo’s average was awful last year at just .234. However, if you dig a little deeper into the peripherals, you will see that he had a BABIP of just .270, well below league average (~.300) and below his career BABIP of .286. Although a return to the mean for Trumbo wouldn’t increase his average a ton, he would be able to at least put up a BA of around .250. In fact, most projection systems have him right around .260 for his average. I would certainly take that to go along with 35-40+ bombs. When you add in extra value for his positional versatility (1B, OF), I wouldn’t hesitate taking him above other players going in the same range like Allen Craig (health), Matt Kemp (health), Ian Kinsler (look at his numbers away from Texas), and Eric Hosmer. When actually looking at the numbers, is Jay Bruce all that much better than Trumbo? Maybe if you squint just right?

As far as pitching goes, another guy who recently switched teams that I have an eye on is a starting pitcher for the Padres. I’m not talking about everyone’s popular bounce-back pick, Josh Johnson, but rather his teammate, Ian Kennedy. I know, I know, his numbers last year are worse than awful. And as a Kennedy owner last year, you’d think I had have learned my lesson. I guess not. His sparkling 2011 season keeps me hanging on. Seems like so long ago… However, there is reason for optimism. I know it was a small sample size, but his numbers as a Padre (roughly 60 innings) do provide us with a glimmer of hope. Before arriving in San Diego, his ERA on the year was a dreadful 5.23. His ERA after becoming a Padre was 4.24. Combine that all together for a rough 4.91 ERA. Ouch. But… While a 4.24 ERA isn’t great, it’s certainly an improvement. Kennedy’s old home, Chase Field, as discussed above regarding Trumbo, is a favorable environment for hitters, while Petco Park in San Diego is arguably the most favorable environment in baseball for pitchers. This is particularly important flyball pitchers like Kennedy. It does appear that once Kennedy moved to San Diego, his numbers we closer to his career averages.  In addition, Kennedy’s peripherals were much better than his stats. His xFIP was 4.19, compared to his season ERA of 4.91. All of this leads me to believe that Kennedy is primed for a bounce-back season (ceiling of a top 35 SP, in my opinion) and he couldn’t have a better ballpark to help him do that. The projection systems also seem to think that Kennedy is in for a rebound this year, with ZIPs (courtesy of FanGraphs) projecting a 3.49 ERA with about 173 K’s in just under 200 innings. All other projections have him with an ERA under 4.00. I’d love that from a starter that I can get towards the end of the draft or off the waiver wire in more standard formats with an ADP of 266. He won’t be an ace, #2, or even #3 starter on most/all teams, but, at the very least, is an innings eater (top 20 among SP in IP over the last 4 years) that can get the strikeout. There are definitely worse options to round out your staff.

 

You can also follow Josh O. on twitter.

  1. OneI'dWilly says:
    (link)

    Points league. Keeping AJones, WMyers ,CYelich, JProfar, MSherzer, and SStrausburg. I need 1 more Altuve$1, ASanchez$6, HBaily$5

    Liking the Points stuff, Josh.

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @OneI’dWilly: Thanks! I think I like Homer the best. He’ll give you innings and K’s

  2. Joe says:
    (link)

    12 team 10 keeper (w/ additional 6 minor league keeper) roto league. At my draft pick, Wilin Rosario, Zobrist and Brandon Phillips should be available. I only have starter openings for Util, Catcher and 2b. I also have three SP among my current keepers (kershaw, bumgarner, shelby), so no need to jump in there with plenty of good names left. Should I go Rosario to fill catcher or Zobrist/Phillips to go second base. Based on projected needs based on Rudy’s roto total, I am pretty evenly distributed so I don’t necessarily need to go speed or power either.

    Appreciate everyone’s thoughts.

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @Joe: I go Rosario. Love him this year. Especially if he gets time in OF and 1B to get more ABs (added eligibility as well) and it would keep him fresh. Should be a top 3-4 Catcher this year.

      • Joe says:
        (link)

        @Josh O.: Thanks. I am leaning that way as well.

  3. Sky

    Sky says:
    (link)

    So…much…Marky Mark…pecs…

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @Sky: O.M.G.z.

  4. NCPhilly says:
    (link)

    In my points league, I am penalized -1 point for hitters striking out. That gives the edge to a guy with low strikeouts like Hosmer over Trumbo by year’s end (usually).

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @NCPhilly: What about homers? Alot of times I see them count as 4 points. I’d take the extra 70-80K’s for 15-20 more homers and a little positional versatility.

      • Hans says:
        (link)

        @Josh O.:

        Good to see some points league articles. I appreciate it! Last year, Trumbo had 330 points in our league and Hosmer had 395. That was with Trumbo having a 34 HR season. We have -1 for K’s and 4 for a HR plus and 1 for an RBI and 1 for Run Scored. I just don’t see Trumbo being higher than a player like Hosmer. Any thoughts?

        • Josh O.

          Josh O. says:
          (link)

          @Hans: It wouldn’t take much for an improvement in avg (hits) for Trumbo. Also, I predict his homers increase along with RBI due mainly to change in venue.

          And I think Hosmer may see his avg come down a bit this year. He had a BABIP of .335 last year, relatively lucky. Compare that to his career BABIP of .303 (which is right around league average) and there’s room for regression.

          Add in the fact that I highly value positional versatility in points league as it affords more flexibility and allows the opportunity to load up on extra pitchers, if possible. All in all, I think they come out as similar players this year and couldn’t fault someone for going Hosmer over Trumbo or Trumbo over Hosmer.

  5. Joe G says:
    (link)

    Josh the owner of adam jones wants to trade him and he offer me adam jones corey kluber for David wright and sonny gray and i rejected….do you think i made the right choice?

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      D@Joe G: Asmuch as I like Gray this year, I think I might have pulled the trigger. AJones is a first round talent and I’m worried a bt about Wright’s durability. If you’re stong in OF, then OK for turning it down.

      • Joe G says:
        (link)

        @Josh O.: i have andrew mccutchen, Carlos Beltrán,nelson cruz,leonyis Martín

        • Josh O.

          Josh O. says:
          (link)

          @Joe G: You should be good with that then.

  6. Brownie says:
    (link)

    In addition to Bruce, is Bautista really that far ahead of Trumbo when you consider his health risk (if you think Trumbo hits .260)???

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @Brownie: On the surface, I thought the same thing. However, when digging into the stat sheet, they aren’t all that similar. Yes, they both hit home runs and neither one has a high batting average.

      However, Bautista has a much better overall approach at the plate. His K% is almost 10% lower than Trumbo’s and his walk rate is about 5% higher. Bautista’s K% and BB% are nearly equal. Trumbo’s… Eh, not so much. Joey Bats has a career OBP of .360 vs. Trumbo’s .299.

  7. de nachos says:
    (link)

    Great start to a points league series. In our CBS that doesn’t penalize strike outs Trumbo was a 570 player in 2013. 40 bombs gets him to 600 points and top 5 in OF and 1B. Nice work. I’m eager to see where you take these articles.

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @de nachos: Man, without penalizing strikeout, Trumbo is the man

  8. tony says:
    (link)

    josh, nice article, i’m in a 16 teamer, Points League

    Who’s your keepers outta this group, we can keep up to 8 at $130.

    I’ll list fpts they scored last year too since everyones settings are a bit different:

    Pedroia 611/$38
    A. Jones 680/$24
    Starling Marte 529/$16
    Rios 622/$16
    Bautista 544/$28
    pence 671/$30

    Sale 761/$15
    Harvey 714/$20
    Corbin 713/$10
    Samardjza 627/$10
    Archer 428/ $15
    Kluber 512/$15

    There’s 3 OF slots and two UTL, so I can keep 5 OF’s but it really handcuffs me. As you can see SP’s dominate in this league. My dilemma’s lie in Matt Harvey and his talent but I’d get nothing out of him this year, Do i want to keep Jones, rios, bautista, and marte and most of my keeps are essentially OF’ers….. right now my 4 absolutes are A. Jones, Starling Marte, SALE, and Samardjza?

    Any help is appreciated.

    • Josh O.

      Josh O. says:
      (link)

      @tony: I keep Jones, Marte, Bautista, Sale, Corbin, Samardzija, Rios, Archer. In that order.

  9. Frank White says:
    (link)

    Whats up Josh… I’m still really confused on where to start on studying for draft day in a week.. There’s o much info but it’s impossible to put it all together. Like I said I’m in a 10 team h2h mixed points and pitching is huge cause 20 points a win with a point per K and IP. Anyway 1- If you were to draft what positions are the most important say for the first 5 rounds and what positions could wait for later?? 2- Since pitching points are big, wouldn’t it be a good idea to grab an elite pitcher in the 2nd round or wait until the 3rd and 4th to maybe grab 2 in a row?? 3- What stinks is after all these other fantasy sports I play between baseball I forget a lot of the good grabs from last year . Any advise otherwise for me, like you know when your drafting and they already have all the top players In order and when it’s your turn it will show you who’s the best available at the time you pick. Well do you usually stick to within the next best 5-7 guys or do you go down the list to pick who you like?? Thanks buddy!!

    • Frank White says:
      (link)

      Also, If your in any leagues like mine where the pitcher’s important with points, or any league with h2h points, Can you please give me a link to a couple of your drafts so I can get an idea on how you pick?? Sky did it for me but it was roto leagues and he told me to talk to you. Thanks Man!!!

  10. Spammer Jay says:
    (link)

    For your next post could you focus on undrafted RP targets who could be starters this season?

Comments are closed.