Here’s what I know about projections, they’re guaranteed to be mostly wrong with a handful of unpredictable close calls. That’s probably the most accurate projection I’m about to make, which is not quite the ringing self-endorsement one my expect to read in the introduction paragraph for a 2017 fantasy baseball projections post. Let’s be honest with ourselves, projections are bullshit. They’re little more than slightly educated guesses. This is not meant to take anything away from the hard work and resulting labors of love bestowed upon us by very smart statisticians and baseball analysts, but at the end of the day, I almost feel like the projections-hungry fantasy baseball population would be better off without them. Having just written that sentence I find it extremely ironic considering I am about to release my projections in just a few moments. I think they call that the pot calling the kettle black. Maybe the pot is just racist. Did anyone ever consider that the kettle might have started the name calling? Was it Tim Lincecum’s pot?

Before we dive into the numbers, allow myself to tell you a little bit about my projections process. I considered taking 2016 stats and multiplying each individual stat by a random value between 0.85 and 1.15 and calling it a day. However, after some serious contemplation I thought you all deserved at least a little better than that. But how much better? Would some other variance of a random number generator and previous season’s statistics suffice? The real answer is absolutely, but I would have felt very dirty doing so.

Instead of resorting to gimmicks and trickery, I took a different approach. Using complex formulas, advanced algorithms and a magic eight ball, I compiled my own personal set of estimations (aka projections). Did I stop there? No I did not. And here’s why. I’d be a fool to believe that my computer generated projections were any better (or worse) than the next. Even if I did have a really ingenious approach to calculating projections, there are still far too many variables and moving parts to the process that would certainly normalize the results and relinquish much of the advantage.

In order to deal with this I decided to level the playing field myself. To do this I took my projections, along with ten other sets of projections (from trusted sources) and averaged them all together. Then I took those averaged projections and averaged them again with my original projections, giving my work a bit more weight. After a little hocus pocus and an alakazam, I had my final 2017 player estimates.

Before I explain how to use my estimates, I’d like to point out a few highlights from within.

Nolan Arenado will lead the league with 38 home runs, falling two short of his third consecutive 40 homer season. I actually believe this projection for Arenado except I think someone will hit more than 40. As a matter of fact I am quite certain of it. The last time there wasn’t a hitter with at least 40 home runs was back in 1982, when Reggie Jackson and Gorman Thomas led the league with 39.

Jose Altuve will lead the league with 198 hits and secure his forth consecutive American League hits title. He will still be three short of Ichiro Suzuki’s seven (not consecutive). Throw in 32 stolen bases, 17 home runs and 96 runs scored and Altuve is looking at another MVP caliber season.

With 58 stolen bases Billy Hamilton will win his first base stealing title, stealing at least ten more bags than Jonathan Villar and Dee Gordon.

Chris Davis (201) and Miguel Sano (199) will run away with the top strikeout spots.

As for pitching, Clayton Kershaw will lead all pitchers with 237 punch outs. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner and Corey Kluber will be right behind him. In general, expect Kershaw to be the best pitcher once again this season.

You will find the aforementioned estimates by clicking the link at the end of this post. This will download an Excel spreadsheet containing said estimates. Within the spreadsheet you will find five worksheets. The “Hitters” and “Pitchers” worksheets contain the actual player projections. The “Players” sheet combines both hitters and pitchers, but only displays player name, projected points and eligible positions.

As in years past, the spreadsheet is customizable to match your league’s scoring system. Since nearly every points league has a different points distribution across statistical categories, a spreadsheet that did not allow such flexibility would be practically useless.

The last two worksheets “Points System” and “Scoring Systems” are responsible for this functionality. The spreadsheet comes preconfigured with the default scoring systems for all of the major sites. These include CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, Fantrax and Fox. I have also included the scoring system developed by me (malamoneyball). There is even a proposed hybrid version which factors in all of these systems. Lastly, users are able to define three separate custom scoring systems. This is where you would enter you league’s specific values. This can all be found in the “Scoring Systems” sheet. The “Points System” provides a dropdown (cell A23) allowing the user to select a scoring system. It will also display the current point values for each category based on the current selection. When you select a scoring system, the estimated points for every player will automagically update. The only thing you will have to do is re-sort the FPTS column in descending order. That’s it.

Please note that most of the fields within the “Scoring Systems” and “Points Systems” worksheets have been locked to prevent users from changing them. This is for your own good as they do not need to be changed. You can set up to three custom scoring systems and you can change the selected scoring system. That’s all you should need to do.

Projections can be dangerous, so tread lightly. And remember, pimpin’ ain’t easy.

A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised.” -Anonymous

2017 Fantasy Baseball Estimations

Follow me on Twitter at @malamoney as I plan to be more engaged in social media this season.

## 134 Responses (Jump straight to the comment form)

1. You know nothing, J.T. Snow says:

As a points player and math nerd myself, I appreciate all of the work you’ve put into compiling the data and averaging out the projections. While I’d much rather be playing roto, my friends all like H2H points and that’s what I’m stuck with. I do really like the mathematical aspect of the format though. Can’t wait to plug in our leagues scoring here and see what comes up.

As far as a non-math projection. I think JD Martinez will be the 40 home run hitter. He Ks a lot, which puts him lower in my league, but the ESPN projections for him seem especially off. Looking at 2015, his fly ball distance was above average and hard hit % was great. If he’s healthy, I think he can knock 40 out even in Comerica. Any other guys that stand out as being underrated in points leagues?

• malamoney says:

@You know nothing, J.T. Snow: I will be putting out my rankings next week which will allow me to determine who I think is over and underrated. Although that changes based on the league’s scoring system.

2. David says:

Thank you so much!!! I’ve been anxiously awaiting this. Going for my 4th title in a row. My draft “cheat sheet” each year has been made exclusively from this site. :)

• malamoney says:

@David: You’re welcome. Good luck on the 4-peat!!!! (notice four exclamation marks)

3. robmack1111 says:

This is some awesome stuff and will definitely make me feel better headed into my H2H points league draft. Thanks for this!

• malamoney says:

@robmack1111: You’re welcome. Rankings and ADP busters coming soon…

4. Smallwine says:

Based on the near worthless projections, with the number 1 overall pick in a 12 team points league would you lean Arenado over Trout? I don’t think I have the cojones to take Kershaw #1 overall. Thanks.

• malamoney says:

• Smallwine says:

@malamoney: It’s pretty much the same as your excel set up except that pitching W’s are worth 7.

I’ve been a long time stalker to the site but first time commenter. Appreciate all the work and feedback you guys give.

• malamoney says:

@Smallwine: Unless you send me the exact scoring system, it’s hard for me to give you the best answer. The Excel sheet has multiple scoring systems included, so I am not sure to which one you are referring.

And don’t be shy. Comment away!

• Smallwine says:

@malamoney: Sorry, I’ll get this figured out someday!
Batting: (1B) 1; (2B) 2; (3B)3; (HR) 5; (BB) 1; (RS)1; (RBI) 1; (SB) 1; (K)-1; HBP 1; Caught Stealing -1

Pitching: (IP) 0.99; (ER) -1; (W) 7; (L) -5; (SV) 3; (BS) -2; (K) 1; (H) -1; (BB) -1; (HD) 2; (CG) 10; and (QS) 3.

I was leaning towards Trout but with such a long wait between 2nd and 3rd picks, getting a stud 3B early is appealing.

• malamoney says:

@Smallwine: If that’s your scoring system, then it heavily favors hitters. It has Arenado as the top player, edging out Trout by about 2 points. I think you have to go with Trout though. On your next turn of picks you can probably grab Kyle Seager if you are set on getting a 3B, but if you pick an OF there you are looking at Ryan Braun/Yoenis Cespedes. Up to you, but I’d take Trout…

• Smallwine says:

@malamoney: Thanks for the feedback!

• malamoney says:

@Smallwine: You’re welcome.

5. Grey says:

Love the quote!

• malamoney says:

@Grey: Thank you anonymous.

6. Bill says:

The WHIP calculation looks incorrect

• malamoney says:

@Bill: You are correct. Appears to be a botched cut and paste job. Working on getting the updated version uploaded. Thanks for the heads up…

7. RicoSuave says:

Awesome Malamoney! THANKS…

Great work man!

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: You got it Rico. Thanks!

8. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:

so you gave yourself both an eleventh of a half, and another half in total? not faulting it, just interesting.

• Eli Man Penguin Boy says:

@malamoney: you said: “I took my projections, along with ten other sets of projections (from trusted sources) and averaged them all together. Then I took those averaged projections and averaged them again with my original projections, giving my work a bit more weight”

• malamoney says:

@Eli Man Penguin Boy: Ah, yes. Initially 1/11th and then averaged that result with mine, weighting mine at half of that…

9. Iron Sheik says:

Malamoney-
Great work. Thanks for the projections. I’m going to shave some off of Price and add to deGrom!
I need to cut three of these players on my dynasty team. I’m able to protect 8 minors (could be a major league player). Which of these choices would you look to drop or trade as I have to get my roster to the legal limit in 3 weeks….3 players need to get axed or traded. Thanks a bunch.

Josh Bell (R)
Mike Moustakas (R)
Rafael Devers (M)
Nick Senzel (M)
Kevin Maitan (M)
Glybor Torres (M)
Nomar Mazara
Hunter Renfroe (R)
Eloy Jimenez (M)
Tyler O’Neill (M)
Jake Lamb

Jake Musgrove (R)
T Glasnow (R)
Robbie Ray (R)
Francais Martes (R)
Jose De Leon (R)
Alex Reyes (M)
Anderson Espinoza (M)
Mike Montgomery (R)

• malamoney says:

@Iron Sheik: I already shaved Price.

I’m going to have to research this one and get back to you. You’ve got a lot of minor league guys that I don’t have instant answers about.

• Iron Sheik says:

@malamoney: SCORING SYSTEM

BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 6 points
E Errors -1 point
GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 4 points
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 1 point

PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
B Balks -.3 points
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.3 points
BS Blown Saves -1 point
CG Complete Games 5 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
HB Hit Batsmen -.3 points
INN Innings .1 – 1 INN = 1 point
1.1 – 2 INNs = 2 points
2.1 – 3 INNs = 3 points
3.1 – 4 INNs = 4 points
4.1 – 5 INNs = 5 points
5.1 – 6 INNs = 6 points
6.1 – 7 INNs = 7 points
7.1 – 8 INNs = 8 points
8.1 – 9 INNs = 9 points
9.1 – 10 INNs = 10 points
10.1 – 11 INNs = 11 points
11.1 – 12 INNs = 12 points
12.1 – 13 INNs = 13 points
13.1 – 14 INNs = 14 points
14.1 – 15 INNs = 15 points
15.1 – 16 INNs = 16 points
16.1 – 17 INNs = 17 points
17.1 – 18 INNs = 18 points
18.1 – 19 INNs = 19 points
19.1 – 20 INNs = 20 points
20.1 – 21 INNs = 21 points
21.1 – 22 INNs = 22 points
22.1 – 23 INNs = 23 points
23.1 – 24 INNs = 24 points
24.1 – 25 INNs = 25 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -2 points
NH No-Hitters 15 points
PG Perfect Games 5 points
QS Quality Starts 2 points
S Saves 4 points
SO Shutouts 6 points
W Wins 6 points
WP Wild Pitches -.3 points

Yay! I have been waiting for this! I figured you had to have Arenado up there after seeing you in the CBS h2h mock. Have only messed with spreadsheet for a couple minutes but it already seems more user friendly than last year! Thanks for your dedication to h2h!

• malamoney says:

In some scoring systems Arenado is nipping at the top spot. That was a fun mock draft.

11. Rhinoballer says:

This is an amazing site for my draft prep! I’m in a Y! league with 10 teams, H2H and 3 keepers.

Our scoring system is 7×7 as follows:
Batting: Runs (R), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Batting Average (AVG), On-base + Slugging Percentage (OPS), Net Stolen Bases (NSB)

Pitching: Wins (W), Losses (L), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9), Net Saves (NSV)

How would this affect these rankings you’ve put up? Given that my keepers are a 1B, 3B and an OF, could you provide any general advice on how to approach my draft? I’m drafting 7th overall.

• malamoney says:

@Rhinoballer: Who are your three keepers? Honestly I always try and take the best player on the board.

Keep in mind that these are just projections. Rankings should be ready early next week. But those rankings will be based on points leagues, not roto. For roto rankings you need to calculate each players value in every applicable category and sum those values to get his overall value. Then you adjust for position and compare all players…

• Rhinoballer says:

@malamoney: Bryant, Donaldson and Harper….We’re in the 12th year of the league and I was fortunate to have these three as my keepers last year too even though I only finished 4th.

Guys who will be available in the first round of our draft this year (I pick 7th):
Bogaerts
Lindor
Freeman
Cano
Villar
JD Martinez
Yu Darvish
Braun
Cruz
Pollock

I’m hoping one of the three SS falls to me. Any thoughts on who of these available players should be at the top of this list? Thanks.

• malamoney says:

@Rhinoballer: Darvish is the only SP that will be available? I don’t see a 1B in your list of keepers.

I’m looking at Lindor, Freeman and then Bogaerts…

• Rhinoballer says:

Darvish, Strasburg, Archer, Carrasco, Verlander, Cueto are all available.

Bryant seems to qualify at 1B currently in Yahoo.

• malamoney says:

@Rhinoballer: If you’re not going to take an SP then Freeman or Lindor are my choices…

12. icefires says:

Thank you!

• malamoney says:

@icefires: You’re welcome!

13. RicoSuave says:

Hey Malamoney,

I just got my draft pick position and I’m picking 13 out of 16 teams (snake draft) H2H points league redraft.
my league’s scoring system is very close to CBS’ but W are 5pts. and L are -3 . I know every draft is very different and we do a slow draft for a week and on the final day we have a 2 min time limit per pick until we’re done… so, I will be bugging you during that time. ( i hope you don’t mind!)
Who should I be targeting for my first pick ( # 13 overall) and second pick ( #20 overall)?

Thanks again! …and looking forward to following your posts.

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: Here’s the thing. Based on my projections, Anthony Rizzo is expected to score the 13th most points. However, that does not take two very important factors into consideration. Position-based adjustment and ADP.

I will be working on my position-adjusted rankings over the next several days and will have a post out early next week. The other major thing is ADP. The problem is that even if I gave you a set of optimized rankings designed specifically for your league, you are likely to be the only one in your league that has it. That’s a good thing, but if your rankings say Rizzo is the 13th best player, ADP might have him at 7 because that’s what people in other leagues (nearly all with different settings) are selecting him. This means he will likely be gone by around pick 7.

My post will explain this further.

Off the top of my head, I’d say Bryce Harper is a guy that I’d be targeting.

• Ricosuave says:

@malamoney: Thanks Malamoney. I see what you mean… and I’m looking forward to reading your next posts…

Cheers!

• malamoney says:

@Ricosuave: You are welcome.

14. Jason Morgan says:

Awesome. Your spreadsheets and insight are the best thing available for points league players. Some other site mention points leagues but not to your depth. Thanks man. I appreciate your hard work. Once I play with this sheet I’m sure I will have questions. Many thanks.

• malamoney says:

@Jason Morgan: You are welcome. And thanks for the kind words. Lots of hours go into creating these spreadsheets. Feel free to fire off any questions you have.

15. cable says:

picking from the 8th this year in a snake style draft……. 7 SPers went in the first 2 rds in last years draft h2h/points…..these guys that I play with ( (13th year)are pitching hogs …I will grab a SPer in the 2nd rd…..I’ll probably have to pick between Rizzo & Machado with the 1st pick…….

• malamoney says:

@cable: What is your scoring system?

• cable says:

————————-BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points
PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.5 points
BS Blown Saves -3 points
CG Complete Games/shut out/10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
INN Innings 2 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 10 points
PG Perfect Games 10 points
S Saves 8 points
W Wins 10 points

16. Big James A'int says:

Transferred the excel file over to sheets, and seems to have lost the ability to select other scoring option?

• malamoney says:

@Big James A’int: Is that because you do not have Excel? I haven’t played with this in Sheets.

• Big James A'int says:

@malamoney: I do have excel. Just threw it into sheets so I could access it anywhere. Everything the last couple of years has transferred just fine into sheets, other than the drop down box this year to change score settings, which by the way, is such a time saver and a great update.

• RicoSuave says:

@Big James A’int: I thought i had the same issue and I entered my league’s scoring system under the Custom Scoring 1 (box A9) on the Scoring Systems tab. Then, I went to the Points System Tab and changed Box A23 which had ESPN to Custom Scoring 1 (because I couldn’t see the drop down menu) and that did the trick… I hope this makes sense.
Cheers!

• RicoSuave says:

@RicoSuave: erased ESPN on box A23 (Points System tab) and typed Custom Scoring 1 and that worked. You should be able to see the changes…

• Big James A'int says:

@RicoSuave: Thanks!

17. Big James A'int says:

Also, doesn’t look like the ER values on the scoring systems tab are coming over correctly to the point systems page. ESPN for example is showing -2 on the scoring systems page, but -1 on the points systems page. Thanks!

• malamoney says:

@Big James A’int: Nice catch. It was keying off of the walks allowed field. I will get the updated version uploaded as soon as I can. Thanks.

• Big James A'int says:

@malamoney: Thank you

18. Akash says:

Thanks man this is great!

• malamoney says:

@Akash: You are welcome. And thanks! Let me know if you have any questions.

19. Hambone says:

Are you going to update the sheets with position rankings and ADP, like last year? Really helped me going into my draft. Thanks for all you do!

• malamoney says:

@Hambone: Sure am. That will be out some time next week.

20. cable says:

cable says:
March 9, 2017 at 11:13 am (link)
picking from the 8th this year in a snake style draft……. 7 SPers went in the first 2 rds in last years draft h2h/points…..these guys that I play with ( (13th year)are pitching hogs …I will grab a SPer in the 2nd rd…..I’ll probably have to pick between Rizzo & Machado with the 1st pick…….

malamoney says:
March 9, 2017 at 11:35 am (link)
@cable: What is your scoring system?

cable says:
March 10, 2017 at 6:35 am (link)
@malamoney:

————————-BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points
PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.5 points
BS Blown Saves -3 points
CG Complete Games/shut out/10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
INN Innings 2 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 10 points
PG Perfect Games 10 points
S Saves 8 points
W Wins 10 points

• malamoney says:

@cable: How many teams? Scoring system is pretty even for pitchers and hitters. I have Rizzo ranked higher than Machado in your format.

@Grey:

When was last spot filled? Curious how much I missed by.

• Grey says:

• malamoney says:

@Shivdaddy: The draft just ended, but there are still plenty of RCLs to get in!

14 team, H2h points league ESPN scoring system, except QS and W are 5; batter K is .5. Im keeping Goldy and have some early picks coming my way because we can keep up to 3. We also have 2 Utils.
Is it a positional issue to draft Edwin first? Bumgarner is there too and won’t be for my second pick.

• malamoney says:

@malamoney: sheeit. That’s not what I wanted to hear. Is it a lack of a belief in Edwin, a belief in MadBum, or a positional thing?

• malamoney says:

@S. Head: Because your scoring system favors pitchers. By a fair amound. And Bumgarner is projected to have the second most points in your league. I have him at about 644 points and Edwin at 490. Roughly I have E5 behind Altuve, Cabrera, Harper, Votto, Bryant, Betts, Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Arenado and Trout.

• malamoney says:

22. Tennis anyone says:

Are there any leagues you are taking Betts over Trout?

Then we aren’t ESPN standard. Innings aren’t 1 point in points leagues anymore? I’ve got Edwin at 50 points more than Bum. And all those guys are kept already. Most people kept 3, I only kept one, so I have some picks off the top of the remaining dudes: seagers, carp, cano, Edwin, bumgarner. I’ll get two of the listed players.

• malamoney says:

And nah. My first name is Shark.

Singles, 2b, 3bs – 1,2,3
Hrs- 4
Runs, ribs, walks – 1
Batter Ks -.-5
Wins, qs- 5
Saves – 6
K 1
Innings 1
Loss –5
Bs –5
Walks –1
Er –1

4of
2 utils
No corner if s or 2nd/as
14 teams

Sb- 2 points

And that’s no 1b/3b or 2nd/ss. I’m buzzed up and watching Casablanca.

• malamoney says:

@S. Head: With those points I have Edwin at 492 and Bumgarner at 464.

Mike Trout OF 588.66 4.277738069
Paul Goldschmidt 1B 550.04 3.291582847
Mookie Betts OF 545.41 3.486783551
Josh Donaldson 3B 535.68 2.939549908
Anthony Rizzo 1B 533.46 2.942194604
Bryce Harper OF 524.94 3.112428892
Jose Altuve 2B 523.88 3.282343638
Kris Bryant 3B/OF 521.37 3.047140854
Clayton Kershaw SP 519.98 4.429115814
Joey Votto 1B 517.49 2.605660813
Miguel Cabrera 1B 509.06 2.428016489
Trea Turner OF/2B 502.6 2.797622801
Edwin Encarnacion 1B/DH 492.14 2.071463469
Freddie Freeman 1B 488.47 1.994126023
Carlos Correa SS 483.98 2.699752813
Carlos Santana 1B/DH 482.68 1.872114085
Charlie Blackmon OF 473.37 2.169318498
Brian Dozier 2B 469.76 2.049585569
Nelson Cruz OF/DH 464.47 2.006555603
Andrew McCutchen OF 458.58 1.898839484
Robinson Cano 2B 455.16 1.717023341

So two first basemen to start a draft isn’t a big deal? At what point in a draft do you usually stop looking at total points and start looking at positions, or at players you think will outperform a projection.

• malamoney says:

@S. Head: Is everyone that is listed above Edwin expected to be gone by your turn? If Edwin is your best option at your pick, then I’d take him. He can plug into a util spot.

i pick first, then 5th from that group of players. Thanks for all the chatter.

• malamoney says:

@S. Head: Who on my list is being kept?

28. cable says:

that was a C&P that got all banged up

• malamoney says:

@cable: Horribly. I’d take the best player available when it’s my turn. At least in the first two rounds…

29. Jimmy says:

Hey malamoney,
Hopefully you’re still monitoring the comments. Wanted your opinion on my family league draft from this morning. Its a 10 team CBS H2H points league with standard settings (pitchers favored by the format as I’m sure you know).

C- Contreras (162)
1B- Myers (82)
2B- Dozier (39)
SS- Story (62)
3B- Donaldson (22)
OF- Cruz (42)
OF- Desmond (99)
OF- Polanco (122)
U- Puig (202)
SP- Kershaw (2)
SP- Lester (19)
SP- Strasburg (59)
SP- Price (79)
SP- Cole (102)
RP- Giles (159)
RP- Diaz (199)
RES- Teheran (119), McCullers (139), Gausman (142), McHugh (179), Manaea (182)

My own thoughts… Took a big gamble on Price but reports have been encouraging so far. Filled out my reserve slots with upside pitchers because weekly lineups in my opinion are helped by 2 start pitchers and matchups so having SP flexibility is helpful. Puig was a last pick flier and Utility could turn into a hot hand waivers slot. Desmond broke his hand hours after the draft, which is a huge bummer.

What do you think?

• malamoney says:

@Jimmy: Yeah man, I’m here. Great team. If Strasburg, Price and Cole pitch like they can you are going to be on fire with that staff. That’s not even mentioning all of your backup SPs. You will probably have to move an SP to fill the hole created by Desmond/Puig. If Price comes out of the gate strong, I’d move him. Get out ahead. I’m not a big fan of Story, but he’ll do.

Nice job. Looking forward hearing how your team crushes your league this year!

• Jimmy says:

Yeah I missed the SS run. After Story was Andrus so I grabbed him while I could salvage some upside. OF is a bit of a mine field this year. Not looking forward to replacing Desmond. I’m pumped about Kershaw. First time owning him anywhere.

Thanks for the feedback!

30. RicoSuave says:

Hey Malamoney,

So, my draft starts today (slow draft for one week) and then the final draft is some time next week… (16 team H2H points league) I’m drafting # 13 – snake draft. I probably will be asking you a lot of questions during the slow draft… i hope you’re ok with that.

My scoring system is as follows:

BATTING

1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points

PITCHING

BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS Blown Saves -1 point
CG Complete Games 3 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -1 point
HB Hit Batsmen -1 point
HD Holds 2 points
INN Innings 3 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 0.5 points
L Losses -3 points
QS Quality Starts 3 points
S Saves 5 points
W Wins 5 points

What strategy should I follow with this format?

Thanks so much for the help!

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: How many players at each position?

• RicoSuave says:

@malamoney: one player per position, 3 OF with a Util. spot. 5 SP and 3 RP … 5 bench spots.

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: When I get home around 7ish, I will create you a customized rankings for your league.

• RicoSuave says:

@malamoney: Sweet! Thanks so much man!

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: No problem. You should also follow me on Twitter as sometimes it’s easier for me to answer questions more quickly once the week goes. Continue to use this forum, but that’s just another way to reach me quickly…

• RicoSuave says:

@malamoney: ok, I will…

• RicoSuave says:

@RicoSuave: so, in my slow draft and pick #12 overall is on the clock… I’m on deck…
drafted so far:
Trout,
Kershaw,
Betts,
Scherzer,
Sale,
Kluber,
Altuve,
Bryant,
Goldschmidt,
#12 (on the clock)
#13 (me)
Who should be my first pick?

• RicoSuave says:

@RicoSuave: and who should I target on the way back (#20 overall)?
THANKS!

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: Bumgarner then Rizzo

• RicoSuave says:

@RicoSuave: Josh Donaldson #12

Rizzo or Harper?

• RicoSuave says:

@malamoney: Hey Malamoney,
I know you’re a busy man… did you get a chance to look into this?

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: I replied last night. I said Bumgarner and then Rizzo…

• RicoSuave says:

@RicoSuave: @malamoney: yes, you did! and thanks so much for that… you mentioned you were going to create customized rankings for my league…

• malamoney says:

@RicoSuave: Name POS FPTS
Mike Trout OF 592.23
Clayton Kershaw SP 625.4
Danny Duffy SP, RP 433.11
Mookie Betts OF 542.26
Buster Posey C 406.66
Kris Bryant 3B/OF 530.72
Paul Goldschmidt 1B 549.28
Kenley Jansen RP 389.97
Anthony Rizzo 1B 546.82
Chris Sale SP 562.07
Jose Altuve 2B 520.78
Bryce Harper OF 521.18
Corey Kluber SP 560.08
Josh Donaldson 3B 541.79
Max Scherzer SP 553.498
Kris Bryant 3B/OF 530.72
Zach Britton RP 365.98
Johnny Cueto SP 536.91
Joey Votto 1B 520.35
Jon Lester SP 533.61
Noah Syndergaard SP 530.62
Trea Turner OF/2B 495.26
Jake Arrieta SP 528.89
Aroldis Chapman RP 357.94
Trea Turner OF/2B 495.26
Carlos Correa SS 483.38
Miguel Cabrera 1B 512.21
Danny Duffy SP, RP 433.11
Mark Melancon RP 356.21
Gary Sanchez C 366.5
Justin Verlander SP 518.39
Jonathan Lucroy C 361.89
Roberto Osuna RP 342.7
Charlie Blackmon OF 476.47
Edwin Encarnacion 1B/DH 496.25
Freddie Freeman 1B 495.61
Seung Hwan Oh RP 339.815
Nelson Cruz OF/DH 469.23
Brian Dozier 2B 472.94
Chris Archer SP 495.33
Carlos Santana 1B/DH 482.81
Jeurys Familia RP 327.25
Andrew McCutchen OF 460.9
Edwin Diaz RP 323.25
Craig Kimbrel RP 320.49
Robinson Cano 2B 459.05
Dallas Keuchel SP 477.4
Ryan Braun OF 451.836
Corey Seager SS 447.01
George Springer OF 449.07
Rick Porcello SP 472.84
David Robertson RP 314.37
Cole Hamels SP 471.55
Ken Giles RP 313.35
Jose Bautista OF/DH 444.83
Francisco Lindor SS 441.46
Daniel Murphy 2B/1B 450.57
Jose Quintana SP 465.67
Francisco Rodriguez RP 307.655
Christian Yelich OF 440.34
Andrew Miller RP 307.1
Yoenis Cespedes OF 439.9
Eric Thames OF 438.9513
A.J. Ramos RP 306.02
David Price SP 460.292
Masahiro Tanaka SP 459.96
Kelvin Herrera RP 304.18
Xander Bogaerts SS 435.02
Kyle Seager 3B 458.68
Carlos Martinez SP 456.23
Carlos Carrasco SP 453.79
Kyle Hendricks SP 453.65
Cody Allen RP 299.665
Jose Abreu 1B 450.9
Zack Greinke SP 451.35
Daniel Murphy 2B/1B 450.57
Tony Watson RP 297.91
Matt Carpenter 3B/1B/2B 438.98
Alex Colome RP 296.695
Russell Martin C 311.94
J.D. Martinez OF 425.55
Cam Bedrosian RP 292.92
Rougned Odor 2B 434.21
Felix Hernandez SP 444.24
Stephen Strasburg SP 443.15
Ian Kinsler 2B 432.64
Jeff Samardzija SP 442.33
Willson Contreras C/OF 306.12
Jonathan Villar SS/3B 422.4
Julio Teheran SP 439.54
Matt Carpenter 3B/1B/2B 438.98
Jacob deGrom SP 436.84
Matt Andriese SP, RP 286.655
Gregory Polanco OF 418.15
Justin Upton OF 417.82
Ian Desmond OF 417.66
Chris Davis 1B 437.79
Todd Frazier 3B 439.24
Matt Carpenter 3B/1B/2B 438.98
Stephen Vogt C/DH 300.91
Danny Duffy SP, RP 433.11
Sam Dyson RP 283.6
Wil Myers 1B 433.86
Eric Hosmer 1B 432.4
Aaron Sanchez SP 427.99
John Lackey SP 427.4
Giancarlo Stanton OF 410.6
Mark Trumbo OF/DH 407.83
Starling Marte OF 407.82
Yu Darvish SP 423.91
Khris Davis OF/DH 407.19
Kenta Maeda SP 421.51
J.T. Realmuto C 291.2
Albert Pujols 1B/DH 425.38
Yasmani Grandal C 290.37
Trevor Story SS 408.52
Anthony Rendon 3B 425.97
Dylan Bundy SP, RP 273.24
Kole Calhoun OF 404.03
Evan Gattis C/DH 288.11
Matt Kemp OF 401.86
Collin McHugh SP 416.11
Jonathan Villar SS/3B 422.4
Stephen Piscotty OF 400.6
A.J. Pollock OF 400.4
Raisel Iglesias RP 268.2
Hanley Ramirez 1B 419.32
Evan Longoria 3B 419.08
Gerrit Cole SP 409.39
Ben Zobrist 2B/OF 395.63
Shawn Kelley RP 264.585
Brian McCann C/DH 281.19
Tanner Roark SP 407.15
Mike Montgomery RP 261.78
Clay Buchholz SP, RP 260.48
DJ LeMahieu 2B 402
Jean Segura 2B/SS 394.6
J.A. Happ SP 399.04
Danny Salazar SP 397.44
Melky Cabrera OF 385.57
Kevin Gausman SP 396.86
Dellin Betances RP 255.21
Jake Odorizzi SP 396.04
Alex Bregman 3B 404.59
Matt Shoemaker SP 394.74
Ian Kennedy SP 393.83
Brandon Belt 1B 402.4
Ben Zobrist 2B/OF 395.63
Luis Severino SP, RP 251.81
Fernando Rodney RP 251.415
Curtis Granderson OF 380.5
Jean Segura 2B/SS 394.6
Maikel Franco 3B 401.24
Jhoulys Chacin SP, RP 248.99
Dustin Pedroia 2B 392.14
Gregory Bird 1B 397.362
Michael Fulmer SP 385.81
Justin Turner 3B 396.28
Hisashi Iwakuma SP 385.16
Miguel Sano 3B/OF/DH 375.34
Jason Kipnis 2B 389.461
Marcus Stroman SP 383.31
Dexter Fowler OF 373.09
Michael Pineda SP 382.17
Joc Pederson OF 370.58
Ervin Santana SP 378.35
Odubel Herrera OF 367.66
Andrew Triggs RP 237.445
Jameson Taillon SP 372.48
Jon Gray SP 372.45
Luis Perdomo SP, RP 235.425
Neftali Feliz RP 234.985
Aledmys Diaz SS 373.92
Lorenzo Cain OF 363.38
Brandon Maurer RP 234.675
Marcell Ozuna OF 363.3
Gio Gonzalez SP 369.89
Sonny Gray SP 369.88
Carlos Gonzalez OF 362.275
Anthony DeSclafani SP 369.1
Robbie Ray SP 368.42
Nick Markakis OF 361.49
Drew Smyly SP 368.09
Jose Ramirez 3B/OF 361.19
Jay Bruce OF 360.41
Steven Matz SP 366.89
Jake Lamb 3B 379.37
Brett Gardner OF 359.06
Jim Johnson RP 230.575
Elvis Andrus SS 369.4
Jason Heyward OF 358.08
Lance McCullers SP 363.28
Ender Inciarte OF 356.56
Jesse Chavez RP 227.35
Miguel Sano 3B/OF/DH 375.34
Billy Hamilton OF 355.27
Nomar Mazara OF 354.88
Kevin Kiermaier OF 354.76
Kyle Schwarber OF 354.05
James Paxton SP 358.98
Jeremy Hellickson SP 356.45
Carlos Rodon SP 355.9
Zach Davies SP 355.26
Mike Leake SP 355.045
Dee Gordon 2B 367.78
Wei-Yin Chen SP 354.495
Sean Manaea SP 353.31
Hector Neris RP 221.15
Edinson Volquez SP 353.18
Marcus Semien SS 361.26
Brandon Crawford SS 360.19
Max Kepler OF 347.14
Bartolo Colon SP 350.56
Carlos Gomez OF 346.34
Hunter Pence OF 344.92
Aaron Nola SP 347.41
Trevor Bauer SP 344.78
Jose Ramirez 3B/OF 361.19
Drew Pomeranz SP 343.72
Francisco Cervelli C 231.97
Matt Moore SP 343.35
Andrew Benintendi OF 339.96
Welington Castillo C 230.685
Mike Fiers SP 340.97
Denard Span OF 338.77
Jacoby Ellsbury OF 337.87
Brandon Kintzler RP 210.26
Vince Velasquez SP 338.885
R.A. Dickey SP 337.25
Ricky Nolasco SP 337.175
Francisco Liriano SP 337.16
Carlos Beltran OF/DH 334.39
Rich Hill SP 335.55
Matt Wieters C 224.72
Luke Gregerson RP 205.39
Logan Forsythe 2B 351.67

• malamoney says:

@malamoney: Ignore Duffy in the top five. He’s lower on the list. Cut and paste error…

• RicoSuave says:

@malamoney: AWESOME! THANK YOU!!!!

31. Cole says:

I know…rookie mistake but how do I load the spreadsheet with my custom points?

thank you

• Cole says:

@Cole: got it. sorry for the post

• malamoney says:

@Cole: No problem at all. Welcome!

• malamoney says:

@Cole: Go to the “Scoring System” tab and enter your scoring system in the row for “Custom Scoring 1”. Then go to the “Points System” tab and select “Custom Scoring 1” from the drop down.

That’s it. However, you will need to re-sort the “Hitters” and “Pitchers” tab by the “FTPS” column so that is displays in a more easy to read format.

32. Maestro says:

Hi –

I asked you the question last year and figured I’d ask again just in case you’ve developed or know someone that has developed a formula to account for the aberration in scoring system into the projections. It’s a weekly league.

Batting
BA Batting Average .126 – .150 BAs = 6 points
.151 – .175 BAs = 7 points
.176 – .200 BAs = 8 points
.201 – .225 BAs = 9 points
.226 – .250 BAs = 10 points
.251 – .275 BAs = 11 points
.276 – .300 BAs = 12 points
.301 – .325 BAs = 13 points
.326 – .350 BAs = 14 points
.351 – .375 BAs = 15 points
.376 – .400 BAs = 16 points
.401 – .425 BAs = 17 points
.426 – .450 BAs = 18 points
.451 – .475 BAs = 19 points
.476 – .500 BAs = 20 points
.501 – .525 BAs = 21 points
.526 – .550 BAs = 22 points
.551 – .575 BAs = 23 points
.576 – .600 BAs = 24 points

ERA Earned Run Average .000 – .499 ERAs = 24 points
.500 – .999 ERAs = 22 points
1.00 – 1.49 ERAs = 20 points
1.50 – 1.99 ERAs = 18 points
2.00 – 2.49 ERAs = 16 points
2.50 – 2.99 ERAs = 14 points
3.00 – 3.49 ERAs = 12 points
3.50 – 3.99 ERAs = 10 points
4.00 – 4.49 ERAs = 8 points
4.50 – 4.99 ERAs = 6 points
5.00 – 5.49 ERAs = 4 points

• Maestro says:

Every hitter in the lineup gets the “bonus” BA avg points and every pitcher (3SP 2RP, 1SP/RP) get the ERA “bonus”. I’ve always had a real hard time reflecting this in whatever projections I use to rank players. Any help is appreciated. @Maestro:

• malamoney says:

@Maestro: I feel like I need a secret decoder ring to figure this one out. I just forwarded this question to both Gary Kasparov and Stephen Hawking and neither had a clue. Seriously, this doesn’t seem like a fun league.

Remind me again. Is this per player or based on your entire team’s effort? I would assume entire team.

• Mikey says:

Lol I play in a weekly H2H points league. Scoring system is pretty typical with exception of batting average and ERA. The points for BA and ERA is per player For example, If Mike a Trout hits 400 for the week he gets 16 points just for BA + points for TB, RBI, R, SBBB, etc. He averaged ~ 35 points per week using this scoring system.

RP’s, especially closers, are very valuable because if they could bring in 50 points with 3saves (8×3) + 24 ERA points + 1 point for every K. A SP that throws 6 innings of 1 run ball and wins could net you ~35 points

• malamoney says:

@Mikey: What if a guy only ends up with 4 at bats. He gets 2 walks and 2 singles. He bats 1.000 for the week and gets 24 points for it? Yet the guy that has 22 at bats and bats .300 only gets 12 points?

It’s not weighted by at bats. It should be add up all of your team’s hits and at bats and figure out your team batting average for the week. That’s a much fairer approach.

• Mikey says:

@malamoney: Good point but an argument/rule change that won’t be under discussion this year. That scenario, anyways, is a handful of times during a season.

I will likely just take the points from a player’s projected avg and ERA, multiply by 26 (weeks in a season) and add to point total, then generate rankings.

• malamoney says:

@Mikey: You might want to factor in the number of games the player is projected to play. For example, if Player A is only projected to play 130 games, multiplying by 26 is inaccurate. Maybe do something like:

162 games / 26 weeks = 6.2 games per week

(Number of games per player / 6.2) * (points for batting average)

Probably do something similar for pitchers and ERA…

• Mikey says:

@malamoney: ok, thank you. I’ve seen AB and Inning projections but haven’t seen game projections. This probably wouldn’t be too difficult to come up with. Where can I get the most accurate playing time projections?

• malamoney says:

@Mikey: My projections include games played…

• Mikey says:

@malamoney: that was a test!! I’m going with your projections!!

33. Blake says:

Since these are projections – How do I rank appropriately with my settings below? I entered my scoring system, then if i filter by total points that doesnt give true ranking though?

In my league settings as you can see, hitters outproduce pitchers

Hitters:

1pt -1B, 2pts -2B, 3pts -3B, 4pts -HR, 1pt -R, 1pt -1RBI, 1pt -BB

Pitchers

15pts – W, 7pts – S, 1pt – SO

• malamoney says:

@Blake: My rankings will be released on Friday. It will include an updated spreadsheet that will allow you to customize it based on your league settings and it will automatically generate rankings for you…

34. Blake says:

Will you have ADP in there so I can see value?

or do you have ADP values for pts leagues so I can look for value comparitively per round?

it always seems like a trick so get someone who will produce the same amount of points that can be found later than a bigger name

• malamoney says:

@Blake: ADP busters will be on Wednesday.

• Blake says:

will it be part of the rankings spreadsheet?

• malamoney says:

@Blake: Yes, but it will not be added until Wednesday. It will not be in tomorrow’s version of the spreadsheet.

35. Meisce says:

Hey Malamoney, this is exceptional. Founds a few suprizes when I entered my custom points league. I certainly won’t be reaching for pitchers.

Will you be entering this functionality into Hot Rod’s War Room excel sheet? I see there’ a space for it- I’m drafting this weekend and plan to use that ( another great tool! )

Thanks!

• malamoney says:

@Meisce: Thanks. On Friday I will be releasing update projections which include positional breakdowns, rankings and position-adjusted rankings. You will be able to enter your league details (number of players at each position) and scoring system and the spreadsheet will magically generate league-specific rankings for you.

This will be a separate tool from the War Room…

36. You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow says:

Quick strategy question:

Have a 12 team H2H points draft coming up on Sunday and in the league we must have 3 keepers and can keep up to 4. I finished 3rd last year so my position is not very high. I’m thinking about not keeping Price to move up into the third round and draft a pitcher (my other pitcher keeper is McCullers.) I’m assuming 4/5 others will be doing the same so I’d be looking at the 6th or so pick. The pitchers that may be available at that spot are Martinez, Darvish, Degrom, Verlander, Tanaka. Think it’s worth ditching Price to move up to get any of these guys? I’d be taking a decent risk by not keeping him, but the potential at Darvish or Verlander is very tempting. What do you think? Keep Price and start him on the DL or take a chance by dropping him?

• You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow says:

@malamoney:1B: 1
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 4
TB: 1
BB: 1
K: -1
R: 1
RBI: 1
HBP: 0.5
GIDP: -0.5
SB: 1
CS: -1

Pitching:
W: 5
L: -5
QS: 3
IP: 3
ER: -2
HA: -1
BBA: -1
K: 1
SV: 5
BS: -5
HLD: 3
CG: 5
SO: 5

My other 3 keepers are Donaldson, Seager, and McCullers. Pitching in the draft is usually taken very early and everyone else except me values pitchers pretty high. I’m worried about Price starting the season on the DL. I figure there’s a decent chance at Verlander or Darvish at keeper pick 6 and if by chance they aren’t there, I’m getting a very solid hitter and then taking someone like CMart/Tanaka/Degrom with my 5th round pick or 6th round pick. If the latter happens, I figure I’ll just have to focus on pitching a tad more in later rounds. If I get Darvish or Verlander, then I just draft as normal.

Sorry for the double post, accidentally started another post

37. You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow says:

1B: 1
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 4
TB: 1
BB: 1
K: -1
R: 1
RBI: 1
HBP: 0.5
GIDP: -0.5
SB: 1
CS: -1

Pitching:
W: 5
L: -5
QS: 3
IP: 3
ER: -2
HA: -1
BBA: -1
K: 1
SV: 5
BS: -5
HLD: 3
CG: 5
SO: 5

My other 3 keepers are Donaldson, Seager, and McCullers. Pitching in the draft is usually taken very early and everyone else except me values pitchers pretty high. I’m worried about Price starting the season on the DL. I figure there’s a decent chance at Verlander or Darvish at keeper pick 6 and if by chance they aren’t there, I’m getting a very solid hitter and then taking someone like CMart/Tanaka/Degrom with my 5th round pick or 6th round pick. If the latter happens, I figure I’ll just have to focus on pitching a tad more in later rounds. If I get Darvish or Verlander, then I just draft as normal.

• malamoney says: