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Despite not living in an MLB-market area, I have a great AAA team nearby.  I got to see Chris Archer pitch for the AAA Durham Bulls with his great velocity, luckily before his hit role in Coming To Tampa.  But after wanting to search for a career, he got promoted from Zamunda and went to Queens Tropicana Field in hopes of a complete game.  Well, when Houston is running out Carlos Pena at leadoff, as Kevin Garnett would exclaim, “Anything is possible!”

I’ve always liked Archer’s stuff, but the high WHIP was a big bugaboo.  Like Starship Troopers big.  But I liked him in spot starts, and all through comments on Grey’s articles last week, took Archer as my spot starter of choice against a lot of other fringe-streamers.  Score one for JB-O-Nator!  Ok, that sounds more like I’m an Austrian movie star in a political position.  Let’s take a look at how Archer did inning-by-inning, get to the Choppa Pitcher Profile!

First Inning: Well, here is the first pitch of the game.  Wow, let’s hope Archer starts better… Archer’s first pitch of the game is a 93-MPH fastball in there for strike one.  Archer’s got some big eyebrows.  Random comment… Archer then blows a 94-MPH past Pena who is late, then climbs the ladder at 96-MPH, 1-2.  Archer hits the same spot but Pena fouls this one off, then Archer goes to a slider, it doesn’t break much at 86, but backdoors Pena for a strikeout looking.  The first pitch to Jose Altuve is a 95-MPH fastball smoked right to Ben Zobrist who is able to knock it down, but can’t make a play on Altuve for an infield single.  So Archer is back ready, and starts Jason Castro with a fastball for a strike, then misses low with the heater, then again with that slider at 84-MPH catches the backdoor looking, 1-2.  Archer goes to a 96-MPH fastball on the hands, it’s dribbled weakly to third and the Rays turn a double play to end the inning.

Second Inning: The Rays give Archer an early run of support, and he starts J.D. Martinez with a fastball for a strike, then another fouled off, then a slider at 86 dips low, 1-2.  Not a bad pitch there looking for a swing, but I’d like to see a little more sharp break, it sort of rolls over.  The next pitch is another slider in about the same spot, Martinez tops it and Yunel Escobar ranging to his right has it go under his glove for an error.  Would’ve been a tough play, but Escobar gets charged (this was eventually changed to a hit for Martinez), and Archer starts Brett Wallace with a fastball in there for a strike at 94, then barely inside at 95, then a change-up, a dandy and his first one the day at 85-MPH gets a bad swing through it on the outside corner, 1-2.  Wallace fouls another change off, then a fastball fouled off, then a slider at 86, his best on the day and had that late break I was looking for, gets Wallace to swing-and-miss, one down, two Ks.  Archer starts Carlos Corporan with a 95-MPH heater high that’s fouled off, then is low, but Jose Lobaton snaps a throw to first and gets Martinez napping at first for the second out.  Man, what a play.  Archer blows 95-MPH heat past Corporan, 1-2, then another fastball is hit right to Escobar to end the inning.

Third Inning: Still up 1-0, Archer starts Justin Maxwell with a fastball high, then again high, both at 92.  Archer needs to refind his feel.  He gets a fastball over that’s fouled off, then another popped up and caught in foul territory, one down.  Archer gets a slider over for strike one to Brandon Barnes then a fastball in the zone gets Barnes trying to hold his swing, that one at 95, then the next one is at 96 and blows Barnes away, two down.  Archer misses outside to Ronny Cedeno, then in there with a slier high in the zone, followed by a fastball cut on and missed in a perfect spot high on the hands, 1-2.  Archer again with a fastball at 96 gets Cedeno to fly out weakly to right, inning over.

Fourth Inning: Back to the top of the order, Archer starts Pena with a 92-MPH sailing way high, 1-0.  That’s the second straight inning Archer’s velocity was a little low and throwing high.  So he goes with a slider that’s in there, then a 93-MPH fastball is a tad inside, and the 2-1 is a slider that barely doesn’t break into the backdoor.  Now 3-1 and Pena is late on a 92-MPH fastball and foul tips it, then a slider fouled off, and another slider at 84-MPH, another solid one with late break, gets Pena unable to hold his swing for the first out and Archer’s 4th K.  Archer starts Altuve with a fastball that looked good to me, back up to 95, then is in there at 82-MPH with the slider, then a 95-MPH fastball perfectly at the knees is grounded weakly to short, two down.  And Archer’s first pitch to Castro, an 83-MPH change-up is hit weakly to Zobrist at second, inning over.

Fifth Inning: Now up 3-0, Archer gets a slider in there then misses high to Martinez.  J.D. fouls the next one off, then a 95-MPH fastball in a great location inside on the hands gets a weak popup in the infield, one down.  Archer misses high at 95-MPH to Wallace, then a slider in there, then the 1-1 fastball is not in a terrible spot low in the zone, but got too much of the plate and Wallace turns it around for a double.  Lobaton was calling for it away, but it got over the plate – still at 95 and down – not a bad pitch.  Archer misses high to Corporan, then a change-up and a great one outside gets a bad swing-and-miss, 1-1.  Archer throws a fastball outside and Corporan can’t hold his swing, then a 95-MPH fastball on the knees and inside paints the lower black for his 5th K looking.  Great pitch, and good to see Archer finding the zone low.  Archer starts Maxwell with a slider low, then a fantastic change-up gets Maxwell way in front, 1-1.  Archer throws a 96-MPH fastball in the same spot, it gets a little bit on Maxwell’s fists who nubs it to short for an easy out to end the inning.

Sixth Inning: The Rays still up 3-0, and Archer gets a 93-MPH fastball past Barnes, 0-1, then barely low with the heater at 95, 1-1.  Good to see the velocity immediately there and pitching down.  Archer then whips a slider that gets a swing as it dives low, then almost gets Barnes holding up on another slider, 2-2.  Another slider, this one hangs right in the middle of the zone, gets Barnes to hit it hard, but it’s caught in front of the warning track, one down.  Probably Archer’s worst slider, good thing it’s the Astros!  So Archer blows Cedeno away with a fastball at 95, then again at 96 gets a weak foul ball, 0-2.  Then Archer climbs the ladder too high for even Lobaton at 96-MPH and goes back to the backstop, 1-2, then the very next pitch is a slider with not the best movement and stayed down the middle, but gets a swing-and-miss out in front as Cedeno was watching for another fastball.  That’s why a power fastball can get you through.  Archer’s first pitch to Pena is a change-up outside that Pena rips hard to right, but it’s caught by Wil Myers on the run on the track to end the inning.  First real loud out of the game for Archer.

Seventh Inning: At only 70 pitches, Archer is cruising right now and starts Altuve with a nasty two-seam fastball on the inside at 93 for strike one.  Archer then at 95 gives Altuve some chin music, then a slider on the outside corner gets a weak Choppah! chopper to Archer, who makes a great stab and gets him out.  Archer starts Castro with a fastball that looked good to me but called a ball, then misses outside with the change-up, 2-0.  The next pitch is a 93-MPH fastball right down the middle and Castro smokes it right at Archer and it goes past him and up the gap for a single.  That was probably Archer’s most hittable fastball on the day.  Then the first pitch to Martinez is a slider that’s hit weakly to Zobrist who gets the out at second, but Martinez beats the double play at first.  Just wasn’t hit hard enough.  So two outs and Wallace laces a change-up foul, then a fastball catches the high outside corner, 0-2.  Archer climbs the ladder at 96, 1-2, then a slider hangs too far outside, 2-2, followed by a change-up popped foul, still 2-2.  Archer again is high at 95, 3-2, then a change-up and a beauty on the inside corner dropping low at 83-MPH gets a swing-and-miss to end the inning on Archer’s 7th K.

Eighth Inning: In great shape at 84 pitches, Archer starts Corporan with a change-up low, then a fastball in there 1-1.  Corporan is late on a 92-MPH fastball, 1-2, then a fastball at 95 is high, 2-2.  Another change is fouled back, then a slider is popped up to left and Kelly Johnson nabs it charging in, one down. Archer starts Maxwell with a fastball low, then another heater gets Maxwell to ground out weakly to short, two down quickly.  First pitch to Barnes is a fastball for a strike, then another on the hands at 95 gets a weak grounder that dies right in front of Archer who fields it and gets Barnes out quickly for a very fast inning.

Ninth Inning: Coming out to go complete, Archer starts the 9th at 94 pitches and the first pitch to Cedeno is a 93-MPH fastball in there for strike one.  A slider is low at 84, then a 94-MPH fastball is fouled back, 1-2.  Another slider is low, then another one hangs too much in the zone and Cedeno loops it to right for a leadoff single.  Not his best pitch there.  Archer starts Pena with a fastball in there for strike one, then is outside at 96-MPH, 1-1.  Great to see the high velocity still there late.  Another heater at 96 on the hands is fouled back, and another down the middle at 96 is fouled, and again on the hands at 96 is fouled back, still 1-2.  Archer then goes to the breaking ball, a backdoor slider right at the bottom of the zone and Pena can’t offer at it and Archer has his 8th K.  Archer starts Altuve with a slider in there, then another slider is fouled back, 0-2.  Archer then rears back and launches a 97-MPH fastball that Altuve grounds out weakly to short, two down.  97 I think is his fastest pitch on the day, and it was on the 26th out.  Wow.  Archer gets another slider for strike one on Castro taking, then Archer is low, again hitting 97 on the gun.  Archer paints the outside corner to make it 1-2, then the final pitch of the game is an 85-MPH change-up that didn’t do much and Castro hits it hard, but caught by Desmond Jennings on the run on the track.  What a great final play I hope you caught on Sportscenter.

Final Line: W  9 IP  112 Pitches (80 Strikes)  5 Hits  0 Walks  0 ER  8 K  Gamescore: 85 Gamescore+: 80.8

Final Analysis: What a tremendous outing from the young righty.  Just look at that strike percentage in his pitches thrown.  Wow.  And a fair number of those balls were fastballs high trying to alter Astros’ hitters sight-lines.  Archer was a little below his game score in my Gamescore+ calculation despite a lot of weak outs and with the hits all fairly decent, but a double play and pickoff at first worked in there kept two outs from scoring from him.

It all starts with the fastball for Archer, who got it all the way up to 97 and that was only in the 9th.  Save your best for last!  It was working all over the zone, and also used high to keep hitters sightlines’ off-kilter.  The slider was pretty good all day, but not every one had that sharp break and he hung 5 or 6.  Then the change-up I think is where Archer will emerge, it was his third pitch in this game but flashed real potential, especially working with that change-up.

I really like Archer for the second half, but not ready to anoint him the huge breakout guy you’re looking for.  The velocity and fastball is there, but in the 3rd and 4th innings he lost a little velocity and was sailing some pitches.  Also, a few bad pitches weren’t turned into hits that a lot of other line-ups, especially in the AL East, would do better with.  Still a little work needs to be done for a consistent feel and usage of the slider and change.  He’s definitely worth owning in 10-team leagues right now as your final pitcher, but not a guy that has to be held at all costs.  I’d expect a 3.50ish ERA and 1.20ish WHIP in the second half, but with good K numbers and solid Wins.

  1. Rodney says:
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    Rank (sorry) ROS:

    Archer, Erasmo, Kluber and Fister.

  2. Rodney says:
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    Add Hefner to that list. Thanks! Good article too…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Rodney: I am still all in on Kluber. Then Fister, Archer, Erasmo, Hefner. Not fully buying on Hefner.

      • Rodney says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Rodney: No prob, thanks for reading!

          • Nick says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Just out of curiosity, where would you put Wheeler on that list?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Nick: It’s tough because when I broke him down two weeks ago he didn’t look all there and I haven’t had a chance to see how he looked his last start. For this season, below all of them right now, but could change.

              • zk says:
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                @JB Gilpin: I don’t get the “not-buying” on Hefner parade. (It’s not just you.) If it’s between Archer, Erasmo, and Hefner the rest of the way, only one of the three has a track record. (I don’t count Kluber because I think he’s a better bet than all the rest, though his ability to drop a stink bomb scares me.) Not just in 2013, but ever. Here’s Hefner’s last 10 starts (and only 4 of these are at home, and of the 6 road starts one was at Coors and one in Philly)
                K/BB
                7/2 ; 5/0; 7/1; 2/1; 5/1; 6/1; 3/1; 6/2; 8/1; 3/0
                Erasmo
                4/4; 6/4; 3/0; 6/0; 6/1; 2/0 (go way back to get his 10/0 start from last year)
                Archer
                8/0; 2/0; 5/3; 3/3; 4/1; 7/4; 5/5; 2/2; 4/3

                I throw out all the pre-hype jazz on pitchers in the middle of the season. Archer was supposed to be an ace for the Cubs, then was a big part of the Garza deal, then was supposed to be an ace for the Rays. I’d never heard of Hefner until last year. Even including his two turds in April, he has a top-40 SP stat line across the season. In a 12-team league (especially a points league that doesn’t overvalue wins), he’s not only roster-worthy, he’s a must-start. So is Mike Leake, another guy getting no love. If you’re in a keeper league or a league that overvalues Ks, then I get the Erasmo love. But if you want to win this year, only one of those three guys has shown that he can give you a QS with few baserunners in a pitcher’s park. (Hefner’s QS% is top-2o in MLB).

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @zk: I buy Leake more, as you said. The thing with Hefner is he doesn’t have a plus fastball or consistent breaking stuff, even though it looked decent in the start I broke down: http://razzball.com/pitcher-profile-jeremy-hefner-stream-or-ros-playboy/
                  I think Archer gets more Ks and Wins and pitches in a nice park as well, and narrowly loses ERA and WHIP, I just like the upside more. Erasmo I think can be comparable to Hefner too, Either way, I think all 3 are so close it’s splitting hairs.

  3. Sideshow says:
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    Just got offered Medlen for Archer. 1 guy is hot & 1 is not. But sell high & buy low? Tough 1.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sideshow: Still Medlen for me, Archer will still have bumps and won’t face the Astros every time out

  4. Mike says:
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    Would you trade Stanton or pujols for any of these pitchers 1-1?

    Lee, wainwright, verlander, Moore, sale

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Pujols for all but Moore, Stanton for first 2, still a little question mark with JV with the quad.

  5. Chris says:
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    10 team H2H Pts league
    Archer, Cingrani or Medlen for the 2nd half? Only have room for one.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Medlen still

  6. Mike says:
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    Also, could you tell me who you see being stronger in the era + whip department ros?

    Shelby miller, Corbin, ryu, Lynn.

    Thanks again!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: You know, I’ll buy the Corbin. No prob!

  7. Randy BoBandy says:
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    Depending on how the Rays work their rotation, Archer gets the Jays or Red Sox on the road next…not starting him against either (maybe the Jays)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Randy BoBandy: Yeah I hear that, probably benching. If in a 10-team where you stream a lot, Archer can be swapped out after ASB

  8. Beau says:
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    Shelby Miller a decent enough return for my Ellsbury? Keeper league where Miller is cheap and keepable and Ellsbury is a FA after this year.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Beau: Sure, sounds like a great move.

  9. JoeMorgan'sMustache says:
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    Good stuff as always! So, should I drop Maholm or Erasmo for Archer? Or should I hold? Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JoeMorgan’sMustache: Thanks man! I would Maholm, I just don’t see the upside.

      • JoeMorgan'sMustache says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks…will do. Yeah, he is boring, and has been more bad than good lately.

  10. black & white says:
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    Nolasco got dropped for Archer.

    Could you please rank for ROS:

    Nolasco, Gee, Stults

  11. los locos says:
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    what pitcher should I trade for in the 2nd half? what pitcher is believed to be a sleeper? Ex. Kris Medlen.

    My current staff below: Or is my staff enough to win.

    I am currently in 3rd, gotta go all in to win! I plan on trading a 5th or 6th pick for Cuddyer and a 2nd rd pick for Beltre.

    Hefner, Jeremy(RP,SP) NYM
    Kershaw, Clayton(SP) LAD
    Kluber, Corey(SP) CLE
    Strasburg, Stephen(SP) WAS
    Verlander, Justin(SP) DET
    Holland, Greg(RP) KC
    Jansen, Kenley(RP) LAD

    Griffin, A.J.(SP) OAK
    Medlen, Kris(RP,SP) ATL
    Ryu, Hyun-Jin(SP) LAD
    Ogando, Alexi(RP,SP) TEX

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: I like what Hefner is doing but don’t buy he can keep it up, and unless Ogando is on your DL, I think he’s droppable. But you’ve got three aces I think you’re fine.

  12. Kevin says:
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    Send Franklin/Prado for Hill/Castro? 14 team x 5 keepers and I’m near last place. thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Kevin: Wow, yea I would

  13. TheNewGuy says:
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    Hey you finally got your own thread to yourself!!

    Nice one man you deserve it, hope you keep going with Greys morning shifts too. Great to get our questions answered so early in the day.

    As for a question, got any saves sleepers outside of Bastard(o)? Really in need of saves right now.

    • Shawn of the livid says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Blake Parker for the Cubs. He would be next in line when they trade Gregg

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Hah thanks, yup I’m here every monday and wednesday. I’m starting to think Axford might get save opps again later in 2nd half. Yikes.

  14. Shawn of the livid says:
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    Good read JB, I picked up Archer not too long ago, nice to see him throw well. What do you think about stashing Salazar? Drop Cole or Erasmo for him?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shawn of the livid: Thanks man! In a redraft, I’d rather the other two still, but like his potential

  15. Shawn of the livid says:
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    BTW, I would like to suggest Matt Cain for the next pitcher profile. Maybe you can tell everyone WHAT THE FUCK is wrong with this “ace” of a pitcher. I’m about to drop his sorry ass. I wonder if him and Dickey hang out and talk about when people used to like them. Thanks for the good read, and advice

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shawn of the livid: Hahaha. Interesting, I might have to do that one! That is of course, unless he goes on the DL at some point before then, which could be a possibility.

  16. Mike says:
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    Wondering what your opinion on Danny Salazar is for dynasty leagues? Potential elite SP in a yr or 2?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: I don’t think “elite” especially in that time frame. But fantasy worthy sure.

  17. Fister Furbush says:
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    Nice analysis man.

    One question

    Hellickson or Nova going forward? What’s you’re reasoning too lol this question has been bugging me all weekend

    Thanks
    -Josh

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fister Furbush: I’m just all out on Hellickson, really burned me. Nova.

  18. Matt G says:
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    Drop Garrit Cole SP for Kluber in keeper league/ or hold him?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Matt G: Damn that’s a tough one… Since Kluber, yes while older, is still a “rookie” too, I might go with him.

  19. douglas says:
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    Great article! I love the Pitcher Profiles, your one on Kluber made me pick him up and it’s finally paid off these past 2 weeks.

    I’ve got a trade question for you too.

    7×7 H2H 10 Team league: R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, NSB — K, ERA, WHIP, QS, K/BB, IP, NSV

    My pitching is pretty stacked, and I just recently sent Bumgarner and Myers (who has been on my bench, not enough room in my OF for him) for HanRam. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @douglas: Thank you! Yea I’ve been steadfast on Kluber despite some mockery and it’s been a great ride lately. Seems a little steep, but you had SP to spare to get a premium guy at a premium position.

  20. Longbeachyo says:
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    Yeah, nice job on Archer. I’m skeptical of his consistency.
    Nova sure is looking good lately. Don’t suppose you could do him next…? Or Salazr? He’s intriguing too. Oh, and what are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez? OH! And please rank all the free agents in my league ROS… =D

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Longbeachyo: Yo! Good to see ya, yea the consistency I could see giving him a couple bad starts too. I’ll go Nova, Martinez, Salazar. Once Martinez is assured in the rotation, I’d take him from that point on probably. I’ll keep all those guys on my radar for next week too, thanks!

  21. Brooks Jacoby says:
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    Holiday and Yu for Cargo? or Bruce and Yu for Cargo? or Neither?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Brooks Jacoby: Holliday and Yu would be my pick probably, and yea I like it in most circumstances

  22. Chris says:
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    GArza or hell boy ROS?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Garza

  23. Evan says:
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    CarGo straight up for Kershaw?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Evan: Don’t mind it fitting needs

  24. Frank White says:
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    Hey wutup… When the games start on Friday, will they start over in the rotation or will they go by who was next??

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @Frank White: go to espn’s mlb schedule page or mlb.com’s page. some teams do one thing, others don’t. pretty much every team’s schedule for 19-21 is out.

  25. chris says:
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    carpenter or orgando in DL stash?

  26. Ben says:
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    Cashner, Archer, or Nova- rank them please!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ben: I’ll go in that order, very close though, whichever has the best matchups, I know Archer has some rough ones coming up

  27. Slim

    Buddah Lovaz says:
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    I’m in a 16 team, H2H, 6×6 (OBP-Holds), daily changes, keep 15 no restrictions.
    C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UT, UT, Sp x2, Rp x2, P x4. Roster size is 25 +3DL +3NA.

    I think my keepers are gonna be…
    Stanton, Adam Jones, Cespedes, Rizzo, Gyorko, Hosmer, Franklin, Springer, Yelich
    Bumgarner, Harvey, Moore, Minor, Cingrani, Jansen

    My other options are…
    J.Castro, Zunino, B.Miller, Eaton, Moustakas, Rutledge
    Sonny Gray, Morrow, Pineda, Salazar

    Do you agree? Someone elses thoughts on this would be very appreciated. I wish I had better options in the infield but it is what it is. I think this team is built to win now and later. mmm… now and laters…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Buddah Lovaz: Love Springer. Been holding him for a while in my dynasty, can’t wait for the Sept. call up. I agree with your keepers, only one that is close is might take the shot of Zunino over Yelich since you don’t have a catcher, but Zunino hasn’t spawned much confidence. I think I go with yours.

      • Slim

        Buddah Lovaz says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Muchas Gracias. I’ve been thinking 6 pitchers is probably overkill. If I were to dump one of Minor, Cingrani, or Kenley for a hitter who do you think is the low man? I’m guessing you like Zunino as the extra bat in that scenario. Or of course you could just tell me that’s not a good plan.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Buddah Lovaz: Haha, yea Cingrani is the last pitcher out to me, Mike Fiers is an extreme example and Cingrani has better stuff, but when the deception thing got figured out, it was horrific. I might wait and see how Zunino adjusts and if he heats up and he’d be the keep

  28. Frank Lynch says:
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    So bro… Would you trade Latos n Holliday for Harvey, Chen and Rizzo??? I can maybe ask for Gordon i instead of Rizzo if that matters

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank Lynch: You’re in a H2H right? Harvey getting shut down worries me come playoff time, I might hold off

      • Frank White says:
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        yeah 10 team mixed h2h points… What do u mean shut down, less innings??

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Frank White: Yes, he doesn’t make his last 3-4 starts

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