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I know, I know.  I promised everyone Dallas Keuchel, but he’s pitching tonight!  His last start was so long ago that Jose Abreu still seemed like a good guy to trade for if someone wasn’t selling too high (ack!).  So long ago that Jay Z seemed to still love his little sister-in-law!

But do not fret, I promise unless there’s a Noah-type monsoon that floods out four games, that Keuchel will be next week on his weekend start.

So in my despair when I saw Keuchel was tonight and not yesterday, I went to Twitter for some ideas and got a great one for Ryan Vogelsong.  I gotta admit – I love Vogelsong.  Helped carry me to titles in both 2011 and 2012 where he stayed undervalued for an entire 2-year stretch.  Pretty hard to do.  But 2013 was a disaster with hitters bashing him at a .299 clip, suffered a 5.73 ERA, and I guess the more appropriate adjective use of “suffer” would be for his broken hand on a comebacker.  It was in a 5-inning scoreless game too!  Talk about the worst timing, right whence he was turning it around.

In 2012, everyone ignored Vogelsong because he started the year on the DL and I think he missed all of one start.  Noobs!  To ignore him (like I obviously did) based on a terrible 2013 for a 36-year-old pitcher I think is more logical.  But he’s got his velocity back up to 2012 levels, dropped the line drive rate, and has four gems in his last five starts.  Indeed, it felt only logical to break down his start yesterday against the Marlins, and if he can indeed make another under-the-radar lasting impact on fantasy teams in 2014:

First Inning: Vogey’s first pitch to Adeiny Hechavarria is a fastball in there for strike one, a little cutter at 88 dips low, a huge curveball way outside makes it 2-1, a good two-seamer at 91 gets a foul, a really good sinking fastball is barely inside and low – that looked like a great pitch – then a fastball fouled back, followed by a second payoff pitch, a fastball, inside-outed to right for a single.  Not a great start and Hechavarria got a lot of pitches out of him to start the game. First-pitch curveball to Derek Dietrich bends low – that was a really good one for a putaway pitch – a nasty 80 MPH change-up flutters into the zone with great run on it 1-1,

Vogelsong-Changeup

two-seamer hits the inside corner with some good run as well, then a cutter on the outside corner nips the black for a K looking.  Definitely looking like the Vogelsong of old.  Fastball to Christian Yelich is tipped foul, Hechavarria is almost picked off at first – nice pickoff move there – then that nasty curveball gets swung through 0-2,

Vogelsong-Curveball

then a well-timed pitchout catches Hechavarria on the move and Buster Posey throws him out at second.  Great move.  All the sudden it’s two outs and 1-2, and Vogelsong barely misses high with the two-seamer, then is low with a fastball and Yelich takes off his shin pad and throws the bat – butttttt it’s a full count.  Embarrassing!  Then that curveball, and a nassssty one gets Yelich to swing-and-miss for his second K.  Man after that leadoff at-bat, Vogelsong looked awesome.

Second Inning: After picking up three runs of support, Vogelsong starts Casey McGehee with a fastball on the outside black, a nasty change-up that runs back on the outside corner to make it 0-2 (looked a tad outside, but gets the call), misses outside, then another change gets a groundout to short.  Curveball drops in for a strike on Garrett Jones, cutter is inside then way inside, 2-1, four-seamer at 91 gets fouled back, change outside, then his bread-and-butter right now – the curveball – gets a weak pop to right, two down.  Cutter on the outside corner gets him up 0-1 on Ed Lucas, fastball fouled, fastball high, outside fastball laced foul, then a 1-2 change-up is squared up pretty well, but it’s right to Hunter Pence in right for a 1-2-3 inning.

Third Inning: First-pitch cutter to Marcell Ozuna breaks the end of his bat, but it drops in right for a leadoff single.  That maybe got too much of the plate, but was a lucky bloop hit.  He again goes to the cutter on Jeff Mathis and dots the outside lower corner, fastball low and outside, fastball outside, then a great cutter at 87 gets a swing-and-miss 2-2.

Vogelsong-Cutter

Vogelsong follows it up with a perfect change-up at 81 gets Mathis out in front for a big swing-and-miss K.  That change started at the same spot as that cutter, but dove down and into the plate at 6 MPH slower.  Great pitching.  First pitch to opposing starter Jacob Turner is bunted and Vogelsong makes the easy play at first on the sacrifice.  So runner at second, two down, and a curve hits the outside corner to Hechavarria, 0-1.  Another curve in the dirt almost induces a swing but not called one on the appeal, then a fastball is hit pretty hard on the ground, but it’s right to second for an easy play, inning over.

Fourth Inning: Dietrich fouls off the first-pitch change-up, then a cutter is too far inside and hits him.  So Vogelsong lets the leadoff hitter on in back-to-back (and 3 out of 4) innings, and from the stretch starts Yelich with a change-up outside, curveball drops in the top of the zone, a cutter gets nipped foul, then another cutter on 1-2 on the outside corner gets grounded to short, and it’s a double-play.  Great pitching there, sticking with that cutter to try and get a groundball and does.  Impressive [Darth Vader voice].  Cutter gets the top of the zone on McGehee, then another on the outside black gets tapped foul, then Vogelsong climbs the ladder with the heater, 1-2.  A great cutter bends just too low and outside at 88, nice looking pitch there – good eye from McGehee – a change-up dips too low, then a fastball on the outside corner gets blasted to right for a single.  I don’t like that pitch there, he gave in with the fastball on 3-2 and paid for it.  I would’ve liked to see the curve.  So again runner on first and Jones takes a low cutter for a strike not liking the call, change-up is low, then a 77 MPH curveball gets tapped very weakly to first and it ends the inning.  See!  Vogelsong should’ve gone curve to McGehee too…

Fifth Inning: First-pitch curveball to Lucas gets the call on the outside corner – even the announcer called it a ball but it got the call – then is low, then a cutter gets hit hard to second, but the throw is on a tough in-between hop and Michael Morse (aka Javier Bardem) can’t dig it out.  Wow, they give Lucas the base hit – I guess since Brandon Hicks made a pretty good play to range to it.  Either way, that’s now 4 of 5 innings with the leadoff hitter on (given two have been on lucky hits), and curveball for strike one to Ozuna.  That curve is owning.  Curveball is barely outside, a great running change-up on the hands gets popped foul and almost caught but drops, then the 1-2 fastball is hit weakly to center for the first out.  First-pitch fastball to Mathis is yanked between short and third for a solid single.  Runners at first and second, one out, and most trouble Vogelsong has been in all day.  Turner immediately shows bunt. and Vogelsong’s curveball is bunted extremely well, and Pablo Sandoval has to make a great play on it to throw him out at first.  Man, that easily could’ve been an infield single.  Runners 2nd and 3rd, and the first one to Hechavarria is a cutter down the middle that’s hit hard, but Brandon Crawford dives for it, makes the snag, and throws out the speedy shortstop by over a step.  Great plays from Vogelsong’s infield (well, after one bad play, so sorta evens out) and it keeps his ER total empty.

Sixth Inning: At 67 pitches, Vogelsong is cruising and a curveball is fouled off by Dietirch, a change is low, then another change gets a lazy popup to third, one down.  First-pitch curve is spiked in the dirt, then a cutter is grounded weakly to Hicks at second, two down on five pitches.  Curveball hangs high to McGehee, then another curve is in there, 1-1.  Great faith with the off-speed.  Curve again nips the outside corner 1-2, then a change-up on the outside corner gets hit fairly well to Crawford, but he makes a pretty easy play yet botches the throw for an error.  Crawford giveth and Crawford taketh away.  McGehee on first on the error with two outs and Jones takes a fastball in there, then another good one just misses, then a change-up hits the same exact spot and called a ball again, 2-1.  Good umping today – he’s given some off the outside corner to righties, but consistent.  Fastball is definitely low, 3-1, then a two-seamer runs a good bit outside for a walk.  Vogelsong’s first walk on the day, and it sucks he was close to the zone and had to fight through that at-bat off an error.  Again that great curve is working the zone today and he gets the outside corner with it, then a nasty one boring low gets a huge swing-and-miss, curve again is way outside, then a great fastball that looked like it was on the inside higher corner is a good take, 2-2.  Out comes Posey, and this inning that was a cruise is all the sudden a… canoe?  I dunno… Anyway, another curveball is a nasty one that is off the plate and dips in the dirt at 77, and Lucas can’t help but emergency hack through it for Vogelsong’s 4th K.

Seventh Inning: 86 pitches now, and a good cutter is barely low to Ozuna, cutter again fouled, curveball on the outside corner gets the call, 1-2.  Nice frame job by Posey, but like I said, ump calling it consistent.  Fastball is outside, then a change-up at 83 is swung through, K number 5.  Cutter dives low to Mathis, then a rolling curve gets the top of the zone, a pretty good change is taken barely for a ball, then change-up again at 82 gets him out in front, 2-2.  Mathis must’ve been sitting heater.  Then follows it up with a good fastball and blows him away at 90.

Vogelsong-4seam

What mixing speeds does for you!  Another good sequence.  6 Ks for Vogey, and pinch-hitter Donovan Solano takes a strike, then Vogelsong’s final pitch is a good change-up grounded right to Crawford who makes the easy play to end the inning.

Final Line:  W  7 IP  98 Pitches (62 Strikes)  0 ER  5 Hits  1 Walk  6 K  Gamescore: 72   Gamescore+: 71.4

Final Analysis: Vogelsong really did look like the Vogelsong we saw a couple years ago, mixing speeds, giving up only 5 singles (with one a bloop and one could’ve been an error) and no batted balls going past the mid-outfield.  Pretty impressive.  His Gamescore+ came out to be about the same as his Gamescore – just all-around good pitching.  Even though it was against the Marlins with no Giancarlo Stanton

His fastball sits at 90-92, usually in the lower part of that, with both four-seam and two-seam action.  The two-seamer had good tail, and when his off-speed stuff is working as good as it did yesterday, the four-seamer can work like the K in the 7th on Mathis.  The cutter at 87-89 is pretty spot-on, good sink, late movement, and he was pinpoint with it.  Then there’s the great off-speed, with a huge moving change-up from 80-83, and his go-to curveball from 76-78 that he was consistently able to throw for strikes – and quality strikes at that on the corners.  What’s great about that curve is it’s speed – if that same speed breakdown was for a guy throwing 95, that curve would get to 83-84 at times.  It’s a power pitch.

So what happened last year?  Well, the fastball completely eluded him, dropping to a 89.0 average velocity after 91.4 in 2011 and 90.8 in 2012.  He’s not a hard thrower by any means, but that’s a pretty brutal drop.  The cutter also lost 1.5 MPH, both leading to a line drive rate that went from 20.4% in 2011/18.5% in 2012 to a whopping 27.1% last year.  Batters were absolutely crushing the fastball then able to tee off on the slower stuff, contributing to a huge spike in BABIP and a career-worst HR rate.  But that’s been righted for the most part this year – LD rate slightly down to 25.0% (and I imagine a lot of that earlier in the year), with his velocity back up to 90.3 on the heater.  The improvements have shown over the last 5, with 4 of those starts 6+ innings, 6+ Ks, and 1 run or fewer.  He’s really only had one brutal start all year, and that was at Colorado.  You get a little bit of a pass there.

I’m kinda all-in on Vogelsong.  I can’t believe I didn’t have him ranked before this week, as he snuck up on even me.  I think he’s absolutely a bottom-end guy to own in 12ers.  Great park, stuff is back to where it was when he was successful, and even though he’s older, he hasn’t piled up huge innings since he bloomed so extremely late.  His next two starts are at home against the Twins and Cubs.  Ummm, yeah I want those!  Grabbing him where I can.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto – green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
2 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
4 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
5 Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
6 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
7 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
8 Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
9 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
10 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
11 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
12 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
13 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
14 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
15 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
16 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
17 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
18 James Shields, Kansas City Royals
19 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
20 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
21 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
22 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
23 Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
24 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
25 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
26 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
27 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
28 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
29 Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
30 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
31 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
32 Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
33 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
34 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
35 Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
36 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
37 Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
38 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
39 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
40 Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
41 Chris Archer, Tamp Bay Rays
42 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
43 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
44 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
45 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
46 C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
47 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
48 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
49 Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers
50 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
51 Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics
52 Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
53 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
54 Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
55 Zach Wheeler, New York Mets
56 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
57 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
58 Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics
59 Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
60 John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
61 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
62 Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
63 Jon Niese, New York Mets
64 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
65 Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
66 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
67 Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
68 Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
69 Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
70 James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
71 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
72 Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
73 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
74 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
75 Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
76 A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
77 Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
78 Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
79 Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
80 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
81 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
82 Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
83 Tom Koehler, Houston Astros
84 Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
85 Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
86 Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles
87 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
88 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
89 Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
90 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
91 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
92 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
93 Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
94 Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
95 Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds
96 Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
97 Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
98 Zach McAllister, Cleveland Indians
99 Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres
100 Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs

Dropped Out: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins (TJ – so effed up that happened…), Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (TJ), Dillon Gee, New York Mets (lat, but still sounds like it’ll be a while), CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (his knee is like, “told you to lose that weight earlier!”)

  • My first note is just my insatiable need to mention my Top 5 sleeper pitchers and they’re ridiculous high ranks from my original Top 100.  Of course I’ve made some bad calls, but man, it’d be hard to pick a better 5 sleepers heading into the year.  I mean, Johnny Cueto may have been the best sleeper call, but camon!
  • Overall, the depth of starting pitching looks thin all the sudden.  After about Chris Archer, who I still believe in, it’s a frenzy of meh guys.  Dr. James Andrews is going to make, like, a billion dollars this year.
  • Also with all the injuries, I made a lot of tweaks this week.  It looks like a friggin’ rainbow today!
  • Andrew Cashner… Just a sore elbow… “Just”… Remember when Martin Perez’s MRI said he only had some fluid?  Then they found the busted ligament.  MRI set for today, but I’m mortified.  MRIs on elbows have resulted in TJs 95% of the time lately…
  • Cole Hamels with back-to-back gems.  It’s too late to buy now, but I always had him ranked highly and now I’m pushing the chips all-in.  *crosses fingers his shoulder doesn’t fall off*
  • Corey Kluber at 28 seems wonky even for me.  But I can’t pick 27 more that are better!  I hope my Kluber love gave you that last mmmphf to grab him.
  • Prezii – “Give it up on Porcello” Me – “NEVER!”  Me now – “muahahahahaha!”
  • Remember when Drew Smyly got yo-yoed in and out of the rotation and I had to really bear down to stick with him so high?  That one feels good too!
  • Remember when Alex Wood got the axe even though I said I wasn’t worried about it and he’ll get 190 innings?  That one feels like a kick in the nutsack!
  • All in on Bauer.  Pretty drastic move to send down Salazar.  I am keeping Salazar ranked because I see him up again sooner rather than later for someone, but huge hit.  Really deep league – I’d buy Salazar low.
  • My one night stand with McHugh gave me gonorrhea in that third start against the Mariners, but dude had a one-hitter through 5 before imploding against the White Sox last time out.  Don’t like him against the Angels, but there’s still something there.
  • Tyson Ross walks the bases loaded against the Reds in the first, then turns it around to somehow throw 7 one run innings.  So inconsistent, but yet the numbers are there.  Had to move him up even though I think it’s a time bomb.

Are you singing us a Vogelsong, Mr. Razzball Man (or woman!)?  Want to throw tomatoes at me for these rankings?  Shoot em below!

From Around The Web

  1. Chris says:
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    I just picked up Keuchel off of waivers over the weekend but I’m staring at Smyly as a FA on the wire with his tempting start tonight and I’m thinking of making the switch. Gotta do it, right?

    Other starters are Gray, Ventura, Kluber, Kazmir, Fister, CJ Wilson. Only offensive guy I could drop would be Polanco and I’d like to keep him.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Yeah I think you gotta do that one. I love Smyly. I personally am not a Fister guy and like both more ROS, but I am as anti-Fister as it gets,

      • Chris says:
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        @JB Gilpin: man, I’m happy I went with my gut and stuck with keuchel!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chris: Nice! Yeah, I think Smyly just walked another haha. Keuchel looked awesome, barely couldn’t get out with the complete game.

  2. Clint says:
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    Great post as always JB.

    Surprised to see Masterson still on your list. After the last implosion I’m beginning to wonder if he’s worth owning in 12 team roto leagues at all anymore. Despite him and Liriano, I’m actually pretty well in peripherals, just dying for wins.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clint: Yeah, I mean down to 72 is a pretty substantial drop off. The Ks are there, but I don’t trust him either. He’s still worth owning to me, but narrowly, right with those other fringe guys around 75. Definitely like Vogelsong’s next two starts more!

  3. Hawk says:
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    As much as I like Felix, how is he ranked ahead of Tanaka?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Hawk: A lot of reasons. How about 279 to 8. Thats MLB career starts. And maybe 90% of Felix’s are elite? Sure Tanaka is pitching fantastic and that’s reflected, but this is for rest of season. Would it shock me if Tanaka pushed for a Cy Young and was better? No, but there’s so much more safety and Tanaka is only his first time through right now.

  4. Bob says:
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    Losing Jfer Hurt. Grabbed alot of Pitching off waivers to compensate. Still feeling empty.

    Any concern over Anibal? I know Grey says we should be selling. And this week I am considering Rolling out the below. Am I crazy to trust Kluber and Bummy this week given the matchups?
    Tanaka (2)
    Kluber (2) (Det) (Bal)
    Smyly(1)
    Bumgardner (2)(@Col) (Min)
    Keuchel (2) LAA and Seattle

    Current Pitchers
    P-Tanaka
    P-Bumgardner
    P-Sonny Gray
    P-Yordano Ventura
    P-Cory Kluber
    RP-Holland
    RP-Robertson
    Bench-Eovaldi
    Bench-Jordan Zimmerman
    Bench-Anibal Sanchez
    Bench-Drew Smyly
    Bench-Trevor Bauer
    Bench-Dallas Keuchel

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bob: Nah I still like Anibal. Wasn’t like a shoulder injury again and I think he’ll be good. Nooooo, not crazy at all, start Klubes! I like Keuchel too i think you’re set man!

  5. GG says:
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    Cueto ww lotto ticket winner here. sold Sale earlier on so a lot riding on my #2 arm. wondering if I shoudl try to spin him off for 2 top 25’s?

    Given the SP’s below, would you deal Cueto for Lee & Greinke? or FHernandez & Minor?

    or should I just roll with what I’ve got?

    Start 5 SP, daily rosters, dynasty.

    Darvish
    Cueto
    Cole
    Porcello
    Fister

    Archer
    Montero

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @GG: Wait, waiver wire?! Haha. Wow, yeah I’d definitely make both of those trades if you can swing em! Worth the offers on both

      • GG says:
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        @JB Gilpin: one factor that might matter is that it’s a dynasty league, and I have him for $2.

        Cueto just turned 28, so if he’s taking his gam to the next level, he could be on hell of a cheap top of the order guy. Would you be more inclined to keep Cueto fro cheap? and move Darvish who I’m paying like 1/4 of my budget for?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @GG: Oh that does change things a bit, but if you have a solid team for now, I still might do it. While he’s young, still has over 1000 innings and has shown some injury concerns, so I’m not sure he’s like a 5-year ace from this point on.

  6. Big Al says:
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    Vogie is such a streaky pitcher. When he’s on a roll he’s fantastic, but when he loses his mojo he’s craptastic. If it was one or two bad ones once in a while that’s fine. Every pitcher bomb’s once in a while. When he goes bad it can be 4 or 5 bad starts. I think he’s more of a streamer. Ride him while he’s hot. On another note I was offered Sale and Desmond for Hanley. Desmond seems to be coming out of his funk and has decent numbers for a shortstop, and Sale is a borderline top 10 SP. Just a little worried about elbow injuries to these power guys. What’s your thoughts on this ? Anything but a elbow and this is a no brainer,but this year has been brutal for TJ surgeries. 12 man H2H league.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Big Al: Yeah, I mean if he lays some turds I don’t think I have him ranked too high that I’d hold out hope. But he has the track record of two good years out of the past three that I think he’s deserving of the rank. I think i’d do it, I’m not a huge Hanley guy – unless you had ridiculous pitching. I think since Sale has come back from this, I’m not too worried about the TJ (crosses fingers)

  7. Bob says:
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    Should I trade Willy Peralta/ Josh Beckett and Allen Craig for Corey Kluber, Matt Cain and Khris Davis?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bob: Yeah I’d definitely do that one, love Kluber, such a pitching upgrade

  8. The Dawg says:
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    I am surprised to not see Phil Hughes ranked. Why is he not in the top 100?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @The Dawg: I had four guys just out this week,: Arroyo, Henderson Alvarez, Hughes and De La Rosa. YOu can certainly make the case for all of those guys, but I think Hughes is just not very good. Sure the fact he’s not walking anyone is nice, just not a fan

  9. Bauer Pauer says:
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    Fister feels low at #81. What don’t you like about him?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bauer Pauer: I’ve been low on him since the onset, here’s what I said in preseason ranks:
      “Nope, nope, nope. Not getting Fister in any leagues at current prices. The elbow issues suck, and his numbers last year were ridiculous. Falling K rate, extremely fortunate HR/FB% and terrible WHIP. What’s crazy (and I know you can’t play revisionist history), is if you take out a crazy game vs. PIT where they were hacking awfully at everything and he struck out 12 in 7 innings, his K/9 falls from 6.86 to 6.56, which isn’t good at all. I know you can argue the move to the NL is going to magically make him awesome, but I watched a stretch of Fister starts last year and wasn’t impressed at all. I’m avoiding.”
      Through two starts, one good, one bad, sticking with it.

      • Bauer Pauer says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Fair enough, thanks for the response

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Bauer Pauer: Any time! I will say, I’m about as low on Fister as you’ll see anywhere…

  10. No Soup for Yu says:
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    10 team h2h non keepr 5×5 cats
    Which of the following players should I NOT consider trading for Kluber? E Cabrera, W Myers, P Polanco, H Bailey, A Cobb

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @No Soup for Yu: Myers I might not, depends maybe on OF depth, but the rest I definitely would. I am the Kluber billboard though! Haha.

  11. Greyismyhero says:
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    Is it safe to drop Masterson in all leagues if you can get someone ranked ahead of him based off your rankings?

    I went all in on him this year in a lot of leagues and suffering now. Replacements in most of my leagues will be Skaggs/Hutch/types…I was lucky in one league and grabbed Smyly for him…ok? Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Greyismyhero: Yup I would! Paxton is debatable since it depends if you need innings now or now, but man, he looked friggin awesome. Definitely a risk there. Definitely love the Smyly pick up, have him very high. Skaggs and Hutch I like more too, a tad riskier, but do like em

  12. Janssen with the Stars says:
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    Would you start Keuchel tonight @LAA or wait for his next matchup? 12 team 5X5 Roto.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Janssen with the Stars: I think I might actually wait. I have absolutely no statistical basis for this, but those fringe guys off a complete game seem to struggle a little bit the next time out. Kinda a gut feel he isn’t as sharp.

  13. Lapu Lapu says:
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    Start butler, andrus or hill this week? Normally is say hill, but his shoulder has me worries. Pts lg, thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Lapu Lapu: Man that’s a really tough one…. I think I’ll actually lean Butler, but barely

  14. los locos says:
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    I’m gonna start Beckett this week vs NYM and Philly.

    WW – Lirano, Volegsong, Huthinson. should I pick up Lirano and Hutchinson and drop Beckett/Tillman?

    Beckett, Josh(SP) LAD
    Fister, Doug(SP) WAS
    Kershaw, Clayton(SP) LAD
    Strasburg, Stephen(SP) WAS
    Verlander, Justin(SP) DET
    Cishek, Steve(RP) MIA
    Reed, Addison(RP) ARI

    Eovaldi, Nathan(SP) MIA
    Tillman, Chris(SP) BAL
    Wheeler, Zack(SP) NYM

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: Yeah that should be a really good week. Liriano I would add, even though I don’t like him too much, he’s worth owning. Would actually drop Fister for him, but that’s my Fister bias :)

  15. bubba says:
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    Lost Gio and Cashner this week…brutal…now I’m faced with the scraps…I’ve got Skaggs, Vogelsong, De La Rosa, Vogelsong, Tomlin, McCarthy, Travis Wood…to choose from…

    I see you still have Archer up there…I just dropped him…I’ll pick him up if he rises but he’s a project in my eyes…and if he’s picked up by someone else later…oh well.

    I’m taking it from your rankings you still feel Skaggs is the better selection over Vogelsong.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @bubba: Mannnnn… Brutal indeed! At least Gio got decent news, haven’t seen anything yet on cashner. Ugh, yeah I mean Vogelsong just has such good matchups coming up I think he’s your pick out of those. I still like Archer – showed some control early, peripherals look better than the numbers, I think he can get hot but will be inconsistent. I do like Skaggs more long term, but man, Cubs/Twins at home for a hot Vogelsong? Me likey!

  16. Clive says:
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    Someone dropped Gio in my league. Seems like if he just has inflammation then he could still be a great grab. Did he fall in your rankings strictly due to the injury? Say he’s back in 2 weeks-where would he be ranked? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clive: Yeah the injury and worried about any sort of setbacks. Even so, ranked 44 is still must-own in all leagues. If he’s back in 2 weeks and looks pretty sharp, he’ll shoot back into the low 30s or high 20s pretty easy, definitely needs to be scooped up. Any time!

  17. Fish says:
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    I’m hoping to package Ross with J. Upton for Puig.

    Both guys feel like ticking time-bombs.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fish: Definitely agree with Upton. Only argument from me is Puig easily has some time bomb risk as well – not as much, but it’s there. Still – I like it.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @JB Gilpin: what exactly about Puig leads you to that thought. he’s been nothing but awesome from the first day he’s in MLB.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Hah OK, I like the trade but get a puig bashing. .273 post ASB last year was fine but not “awesome”. Speeding tickets, benched in games, too hung over from a long night at a night club to play the next day. The Puig stuff is pretty well-publicized, I don’t think he’s gonna disappear all the sudden, but it’s a lot of things that have happened that equate to an added minimal amount of risk. I;m not too worried though as I metioned

  18. Rudacious says:
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    JB!!

    Nice article man. Always killing it. So pumped the Pacers took the first game from the Heat. Mad respect for Lebron but I want nothing more than to see Timmy, Pop, Manu and Tony get one. Those dudes are just so damn worthy of all good things in life.

    Baseball….

    I feel like I’m doing decent on my staff. Any changes I need to make?

    Kluber
    Porcello
    Teheran
    Liriano
    Eovaldiiii
    Ervin Samtana
    Gee
    Cobb

    Free Agents:
    Alex Wood
    Keuchell
    Tanner roak
    B McCarthy
    Koehler
    Niese

    Any changes?

    GO SPURS GO

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Rudacious: Thanks man! I’m cheering for the Spurs as well. Mainly because I want to see those guys retire so Kawhi can just run elite game in my keeper leagues :)

      I’d drop Gee. I think the lat will take a while, just look how long it took Cobb. I’d replace him with Keuchel right now, but some of those other guys are quality too like Niese so you can run that as a streaming spot or whomever is hotter. GO SPURS INDEED!

      • Gene Parmesan says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Kawhi is a BEAST! Hoping for the same thing.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Gene Parmesan: That game last night was insane. So so good.

  19. tim says:
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    would you deal lester and alex gordon for cliff lee? is this a fair deal?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @tim: Yeah definitely fair and I think I would indeed do it in a shallower league. If really really deep I might not, but obviously is a mixed.

  20. Joe says:
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    Jb would you start Jason hammel against the yankees?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Joe: Yup I think I would! At Wrigley definitely helps the case (better park plus no DH)

  21. Pops says:
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    Hi JB,
    Hope your doing well. Thanks for the rankings, perfect timing for me. Your comment about Archer #41 being must own convinced me to pick up Matt Cain #26 off of waivers. Yup, waivers
    10 team 8 pitching cats KEEPER league.

    Thank You

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Pops: Thanks man! Hope you are well yourself. Yeah mondays felt like a perfect time heading into weekly league roster sets and I think has been a good time. Wow – yes definitely needs to be owned. Same happened in an 11 team Roto I’m in, has a few not so experienced guys, and someone dropped Cain. Picked him up and turned him and Matt Adams into Abreu as I alluded to in the intro. Looked fantastic, just hoping the ankle heals up. As long as Abreu is healthy after that, I think I’ll win it

  22. Hey JB good to see you’re letting through a little SF pitching love. Combined with Grey’s touting of Lincecum this past week the Giants are getting quite the buzz.

    Just traded Blackmon and Britton and received Teheran and Melancon. It’s needs-based for both of us. Sound fair?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sherm: The Giants always have a nice staff! A buzzy staff! I’ll stop saying staff… Yeah I think it’s fair and I narrowly like Teheran side better, so think you did well!

  23. Travis says:
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    Smyly wasn’t sharp tonight: 3er, 5bb, 7h over 5… Leake looking sharp against the mats and has lowered his ERA below 3… Why no love for leake?

    I got beat to Keuchel and Pomeranz, so eyeing leake, Smyly, Bauer… Eovaldi is my worst guy, but might also drop a bat like Jed Lowrie. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Travis: Wow, no love for Leake? Pretty sure I had him higher preseason and have him higher now than most places you’d find. I still like Smyly the best of those guys. Not enough Ks from Leake in roto. Bauer has great upside and still an Eovaldi believer so sticking with my order in the ranks for Roto. If Lowrie is usually on your bench, yeah by all means grab Bauer!

  24. Jiggy Nits says:
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    Would you trade LaTroy for any of these pitchers? 5×5 nL only Roto

    1 Travis Wood
    2 Mike Leake
    3 Charlie Morton
    4 Brandon McCarthy

    if you could give me a Y/N on each that would be awesome. Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jiggy Nits: 1. nah 2. hmmmm 3. nah 4. nah. So I think it depends on your closer depth vs. SP depth, if about even I have no problem with it if you need the innings.

      • Jiggy Nits says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’m crippled at starter with JoFer going down and I also have Melancon, Rosenthal and Rondon

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jiggy Nits: Aha yeah for sure doing it for Leake then. Wood if it’s looking like no one else in that tier is possible, but wouldn’t like it that much. Wouldn’t for the other two regardless.

          • Jiggy Nits says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Just curious why you like Leake more when Wood is higher in your rankings?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Jiggy Nits: Ah I have Wood too high shoudl’ve moved him down, plus yet another good Leake start tonight.

  25. AMolnar says:
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    I don’t think I have enough pitching to win my roto league. Behind on Win’s which is tough to predict but I am not sure if I have enough pitchers on the bench or if my hitting bench is too large. I have 5 guys on my bench as “positional players”.

    P: Lidstrom
    P Shaw
    SP Liriano
    SP Hutchison
    SP Pomeranz
    SP Zach Britton
    RP HOlland
    RP Robertson
    B Kershaw
    B Sonny Gray
    B Wacha
    B Tyson Ross
    DL Fernandez

    If Gausman,Stroman, Meyer, or Heaney get called up can I drop one of my pitchers for them? Also, is Montero better than anyone on my team?

    Lastly, I was trying to get Strasburg or DAvid Price. Closers are valued extremely high in our league rigth now. I was going to try and trade Robertson and Liriano or Robertson and and Ross for Price or Strasburg. Not sure if they will accept but with how valued closers are right now it might just get accepted. Would you do Robertson/Gray for Strasburg? its a keeper league.

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @AMolnar: Starting at the bottom, I obviously love Strasburg and have kept him ranked really high – definitely try those first two trades, but would do the Gray one as well. The only prospect I think would be worth the add right off the bat is Heaney. I think he’s gonna be really really good. Shaw maybe as a drop at that point if there’s clarity in CLE, Ross if he’s struggling like I think he will, but you have some time before Heaney gets the debut.

  26. Gene Parmesan says:
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    Great article per usual…didn’t see Rafael Montero on your list. Once a 3-to-5 game track record is established, were do you see him entering (if at all) your rankings. Also, not hurting on SP but another owner in my 10-team keeper league is persistent in trying to get Taijuan Walker. Do you think Garrett Richards for him straight up would be a good deal for me? Thanks in advance.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Gene Parmesan: Thanks man! I probably won’t have Montero too high, and he’s shaky right now v. Dodgers. Adrian crushed a hanger. Plus the Mets seem so non-committal to their arms right now. Would take a long line of quality starts for me to start moving him in and up. Since you’re not hurting at SP, I think I’d hold off for the upside of Walker. Richards had a lot of regression last night. Any time!

  27. Slim

    Slim says:
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    OK so 2 questions…

    1. For the sake of argument let’s say I can throw my fastball 75 MPH. I doubt it but still, if I could throw batting practice worthy fastballs and started for a playoff team would you rank me higher than Keuchel? I mean, are there even 70 SP in all of baseball? I don’t have nearly enough fingers or toes to count that high so I’m not real sure.

    2. Wait that’s 2 questions already. I guess this has to be formed in a statement. I got this. Let’s say Harang and Keuchel are standing next to each other on the side of the road, thumbs up in the air… you thought I was going to say their thumbs were somewhere else didn’t you? That’s rhetorical, not a 3rd question. Where was I? (rhetorical), oh yeah, thumbs up in the AIR, looking for a ride and I drive by but can only give one of them a lift. I know Harang is an axe-wielding serial killer of ERA and WHIP and hey, maybe Keuchel is too, but at least with Keuchel we can’t say we know it’s coming.

    3. Yep I lied. There’s a 3rd question. How would you edit that mess of a paragraph? OK fine, that’s rhetorical too. It’s beyond repair. That’s it for me. Adios.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Slim: 1 – Pssshhh Slim is all freaking out for Dallas Keuchel. Regression gonna hit ya hard! 2 – Ummm, I can say I know it’s coming! Plus, and I know it’s silly speculative, but Harang is going to get more wins. Braves offense is sucking too, but they’re better than Chris Carter. 3 – Just because I’m an editor at one part of this site doesn’t mean I’ll rewrite it all!

  28. Cram It says:
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    Hey bud. I need some SP help but I don’t want to pay for it. Can you throw me a couple of buy-low/under the radar names I could target. Guys on this list you could see shooting up your rankings. Like an Archer, but not Archer, ya know, because I’m sick of him on all my other teams? Unless you think Duffy is rosterable in a 13-teamer, I can get him for free.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Cram It: Never mind, I just spun Hosmer for Anibal, so mission accomplished. Cheers.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Cram It: Duffy is meh. If you had the room maybe stash but barely. Nice move! Definitely a big Anibal guy still

  29. Jonas says:
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    Do you think its possible Thornburg cracks the Milwakee rotation this season? Just trying to figure out what to do with Masterson (I want to drop him, but also want to hold). Also, starting Chase Anderson v. Mets? These last two are who I am considering dropping for Thornburg at the moment.

    • Jonas says:
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      @Jonas: yeah, just gonna wait til after Anderson’s start tomorrow.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jonas: Yeah i like the Anderson one a lot there. Thornburg will only move in if there’s a long-term injury. We want to keep him in his role unless it’s a big need. Also worth noting Mike Fiers is absolutely murdering AAA, so if it’s a spot start need or just a start or two for Gallardo’s ankle, Fiers makes sense.

      • Jonas says:
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        @JB Gilpin: ah, thanks.

  30. los locos says:
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    I think Fister gonna move up that list, buddy… Where does Tillman, go? haha.

    I wish they would just bring Gausman up, there staff stinks… Let the kid learn – I think he could be a top pitcher next season if they give him a shot.

    Also, Bundy used to be the best prospect, he gets TJ and now no one talks about him. He reminds me a Sonny Gray, thoughts? I been thinking about picking him up and stashing him.. I am in 10 team keepers and Verlander is weighing very thin on me.. Especially I traded last year G Cole and Shelby for him.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @los locos: I think Fister isn’t that good, buddy. Tillman can fall into the RA Dickey range haha. Bundy will have tons of buzz when he’s close. ROS from this point forward, I don’t think he’s too close to top 100 yet. Yeah Gray is a really good comp. Bundy used to be a more power arm but we’ll see when he’s ready. How many are kept? Verlander obviously has to be owned, but the arm is got a lot of mileage his keeper status declines every year.

      • Los locos says:
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        @JB Gilpin: we keep 7 guys either 4 off or 3 pitcher and vice Versa. I have kershaw strausburg. Then evoldi, fister Beckett Hutchinson Verlander wheeler. So was thinking adding bundy or synderguard, like Guasman buy orioles playing games with that kid

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Los locos: Yeah I expect both to be in the rotation at least some this year then both fixtures next year. All of those young arms would have to show something pretty great though to be kept over Verlander next year.

  31. Drexel Hill Dragons says:
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    Eovaldi or Vogelsong?

    I’m starting to worry about Eovaldi, his K’s are way down, his hits given up are way up, and he also has had cupcake matchups pretty much the entire season thus far. Vogelsong seems to have found his way and pitches for a better team.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Drexel Hill Dragons: Ah twas same question got ya on the last one

  32. Jonas says:
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    Judging by the way you answered my last question, you are a Brewers fan? Rays down here.

    Would you deal Springer to get Porcello?

    The guy also has Ervin Santana and may be more wanting to trade him and judging by your rankings you like him slightly more. I have an Ervin Santana hang up, do I need to just get over that?

    • Jonas says:
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      @Jonas: well, all trades are off anyway.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jonas: Yup! Hardcore Brewers fan here. I’ve always been a Rays fan as well, a team that’s easy to root for. I wouldn’t trade Springer for Porcello, upside vs. a decent pitcher who I think is underrated. Yeah I like Ervin a tad more even though he’s struggled a little lately, but prob wouldnt do that trade either.

  33. FantasyDud says:
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    Great stuff as always.

    When can we expect the next Pitcher Profile with rankings?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      Thursday. The Memorial Day Weekend pushed things around a little. Like Prince Fielders stomach.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @FantasyDud: Thanks man! Yup after eating all those ribs on the holiday, I also contracted a herniated disk in my neck…. See ya Thurs!

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