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Razzball Nation!

The pitcher profiles are back for 2013.  Every Monday I will be breaking down a starting pitcher’s performance pitch-by-pitch so you can see an in-depth review of their velocity and how much luck factored into their numbers.

Jose Fernandez, the Miami Marlins 1st-round pick in 2011, had an unreal ascent through the Minors up until Spring Training a few months back. In a surprise move a few days before Opening Day, the Marlins decided to put the big righty in the rotation to start the season.  A similar comparison could be made to Michael Pineda when he came up with the Mariners in 2011.  A big, hard-thrower beginning in the Majors in the Opening Day rotation perhaps too early in their careers.  Just look at what happened to Pineda’s shoulder.  Hopefully Fernandez can avoid similar fate.

Listen, I know these can sometimes be a little drier than Grey’s mustache on a Caribbean beach.  But they offer a different perspective on a pitcher’s outing other than looking at only stats.  I will tend to pick young pitchers or fringe-owned starters, but if you have any suggestions of a pitcher you’d like broken down, pick a guy starting over next weekend and shoot that comment below.

Here’s how Fernandez looked:

First Inning: Fernandez’s first pitch of the game and of his MLB career is a 93-MPH fastball taken for a strike to Collin Cowgill.  At 6-2, 240, he’s not quite the height of Pineda, so I should probably stop that comp.  That first one looked like a two-seamer with a hard drop and tail into the lower inner half.  The next pitch is a 93-MPH that looked like a four-seamer that stayed up at the hands; Cowgill gets a hold of it but flies out directly to Justin Ruggiano.  The first pitch to Daniel Murphy is a 96-MPH fastball taken for a strike.  There’s the heat!  The next pitch is a 95-MPH fastball that looked straight which Murphy crushes opposite field to the warning track, but it’s caught by Pierre moving back, two down.  Two fairly hard hit outs to start the game.  Up now is the only real dangerous hitter in the Mets lineup, David Wright.  He starts him with a 96-MPH fastball that Wright gets jammed on and fouls back, 0-1.  His next pitch is his first breaking ball, a 80-MPH curveball that shoots down with huge movement, 1-1.  Man, command of that and it’s gonna be a long career.  Wright fouls another one back, 1-2.  The next pitch is a breaking ball that hangs and Wright hits it opposite field to Giancarlo Stanton right in front of the track for a 1-2-3 inning.  However every ball was hit pretty well.

Second Inning: The first pitch to Ike Davis is a fastball way outside at 93-MPH.  He then paints at the same speed on the outside corner, 1-1.  Then Fernandez goes to a change-up that moved something like 10-4 at 85-MPH and got Davis to look silly half-swinging at it.  That was a pretty incredible pitch, and shows Fernandez could have 3 plus offerings with the heat, slider and change.  The next pitch is another 80-MPH curveball that bends into the zone for his first ML strikeout with Davis looking.  Fernandez starts Mike Baxter with a fastball fouled off, 0-1.  Yes Mike Baxter is hitting 5th for your Mets.  Wow.  Fernandez misses on his next two fastballs, 2-1.  Again he’s outside at 96, 3-1.  He’s able to paint the outside corner, full count, then blows him away at 95-MPH right down the middle.  2 Ks.  The first pitch to Lucas Duda is a two-seamer that tails too far out of the zone at 96-MPH, 1-0.  Serious, serious movement on that.  Then he blows him away at 96-MPH swinging, 1-1.  Again outside, 2-1, then Duda fouls one straight back, 2-2.  Then on the outside high corner, dots a 97-MPH fastball to get Duda swinging and Fernandez strikes out the side in order, wow.

Third Inning: After getting a run of support, Fernandez starts Ruben Tejada with a 95-MPH fastball inside, 1-0.  He misses again 2-0.  His mechanics look like he’s finishing a little differently, but I may be applying two straight balls to that thought.  He gets a 93-MPH over that Tejada fouls off, 2-1.  The broadcast is interviewing his pitching coach (I assume from before he got drafted) who said they applied a lot of Japanese mechanics and philosophy to his development.  He sticks with the heater at 95-MPH that Tejada lines into the opposite field but right to Stanton, one down.  The first pitch to Anthony Recker is a 97-MPH two-seamer, strike one.  Literally never heard of this Recker guy.  He then gets the curveball in the zone at 83-MPH, 0-2.  That one didn’t have as much movement, but got over.  Then it’s 97-MPH on the outside high corner again that blows him away, another K.  I think his delivery is the same, it’s smooth but he finishes off a little weird, with a lot of torque on his wrist.  He gets one over to opposing pitcher Aaron Laffey, then low, then Laffey very weakly grounds one to first, inning over. It’s been 9 up 9 down, what a debut.

Fourth Inning: Fernandez gets two more runs of support, and is pitching with a 3-0 lead.  He starts Cowgill with a fastball way high and tight, 1-0.  Then 94-MPH right down Broadway, 1-1.  Another curveball over at 80-MPH, 1-2.  That one hung a bit too.  Then he blows away Cowgill on the hands at 96-MPH with the two-seamer that moves a good 8-inches into the hitter.  10 up 10 down.  The first pitch to Murphy is that change-up that barely misses, then a fastball misses, 2-0.  Then on a 95-MPH fastball down the middle, Daniel Murphy slams a single right up the gap.  There goes the perfect game!  Fernandez gets ahead 0-1, then 0-2 on a 96-MPH heater that Wright fouls off.  Catcher Rob Brantly then set up low and away for a curveball, but Fernandez hung it a tad and it started in on the plate and ended up right down the middle, but Wright took it for a strikeout looking.  I don’t think he gets away with that next time to Wright but it’s 6 Ks now.  Fernandez makes his first pickoff move and Murphy is back easy.  Not the best pickoff move.   He checks again to no avail then misses outside to Davis 1-0.  He then gets a change-up over at 85-MPH, 1-1.  I just figured out what the delivery anomaly is.  On fastballs, his wrist finishes by cocking up, then on that change-up, his arm is completely across his body.  If there’s anything hitters can pick up on that difference as it’s leaving his hand, that might be a problem.  Then it’s another one at 86-MPH in the dirt, couldn’t tell if a change or curve, with that same arm across the body.  He then hangs a curveball at 77-MPH that stays high, 3-1.  He then loses Davis on a 92-MPH fastball outside.  Not only a decline in velocity with the curve that didn’t break, now one of his slowest fastballs that didn’t locate, and his wrist didn’t flare up like it had on those 97-MPH heaters.  He starts Baxter with a 95-MPH heater, 0-1.  Then the curve misses at 79-MPH outside with little break, 1-1.  The fastball is way outside at 92-MPH and Fernandez goes for the rosin bag.  He gets Baxter to swing and miss on a 93-MPH heater, 2-2.  He goes back to the curve that stays over the middle of the plate, but Baxter hits it right to the mound and Fernandez makes a nice play to throw him out at first, inning over.

Fifth Inning: The first pitch to Lucas Duda is a 86-MPH change-up taken for a strike, 0-1.  Again, the arm across the body.  A fastball misses, then is in at the knees, 1-2.  He then goes to the backdoor breaking ball taken for strike 3.  Wow, I just re-watched his arm, it whipped across his body to his left hip, as opposed to his wrist staying up towards his right shoulder on the fastball.  That’s a MAJOR difference, he tries to bounce it back up but the arm motion looked different.  But it’s 7 Ks.  Fernandez starts Tejada on the inside, 1-0.  Tejada fouls one back, then gets a curveball in there 1-2.  Fernandez is low with the curve, 2-2, then barely misses in again with the curve, full count.  Tejada fouls off three pitches, then weakly grounds it right up the gap for a single.  What an at-bat at 9 pitches.  Fernandez misses with the curve, 1-0.  Just not as much sharp movement on that anymore.  Then Recker misses on a 92-MPH fastball, 1-1.  There’s a tough curveball, biting hard outside and low that Recker misses, 1-2.  Then a hanger right down the middle, and Recker crushes a double down the third base line that scores Tejada.  On that one, it looked like Fernandez tried to finish it like a fastball, his wrist was up high.  Pinch-hitter Marlon Byrd fouls two straight off to get up 0-2.  A 95-MPH fastball is fouled off again, then misses, then on the 1-2 gets a very sharp breaking ball to bury and Byrd swings and misses, 8 Ks, two down.  Fernandez misses to Cowgill, 1-0, then one is fouled off 1-1.  Another is fouled off on 96-MPH heat, 1-2.  That velocity is still there.  A heater is outside, 2-2, then Cowgill pops up to second to end the inning.  Fernandez doesn’t return, and a Steve Cishek blown save costs him his first ML Win.

Final Line: ND 5.0 IP (80 pitches) 3 Hits 1 Walk 1 Earned Run 8 Ks

Final Analysis: A fantastic debut for Jose Fernandez, who struck out 8 in only 5 innings.  But I’m not as impressed when looking at the tape.

First you have to realize it’s a terrible Mets offense at Citi Field.  Marlins park is a good pitchers’ park as well, so that’s not a big issue and the park factor maybe only saved that catch by Pierre in the first from being a double.  But Fernandez will primarily face better offenses.

The real issue for me was the mechanics.  Fernandez has a smooth delivery up until he finishes his pitch.  Then there’s a stark difference between the fastball and off-speed.  His wrist cocks up on the fastballs with his arm staying on his right, then the off-speed his arm and wrist finishes across his body, then he bounces his back up.  And if I can pick up on this, I know Major League scouts are looking at similar film, but this could be something hitters can’t pick up on in time.  It looks like his arms sweeps across his body consistently on all pitches, it’s just the finishing motion after the ball has left his hand.  Seeing his pitches from the main pitcher view, it’s tough to tell as I didn’t see any pitches from the catcher’s view.  These finishing mechanics also varied for Fernandez who didn’t have consistent velocity or movement mainly in that 4th inning.

Listen, it’s one game, a ML debut for a 20-year-old no less, and maybe Fernandez can work out these issues if they cause any problems, and maybe they never will and I’m reading too much into it.  They certainly didn’t get him into much trouble yesterday.  His 97-MPH heat can cause serious damage and his two-seamer has explosive movement.  But the change-up wasn’t there all day (nor did he use it much) and neither was the curve.

Marlins president Larry Beinfest is going to limit Fernandez to 150-170 innings, plus I doubt he gets into the 90-pitch range very often.  The limited outings plus a terrible offense behind him is going to severely limit his win potential.  If you picked up Fernandez, you’re holding on and trying to sell high while the iron is hot.  I wouldn’t try to trade for him right now, I think the cost is just too high.

  1. zzzzzz says:
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    Should I try and trade Jo-Fer for Medlen?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @zzzzzz: if I could get Medlen I’d do that in a heartbeat. Thanks for the zzzzzzz

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @JB Gilpin: or is that just your comment name haha…

        • zzzzzz says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Just my comment name so that my league mates can’t find me here. :-)

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @zzzzzz: haha nice move good sir :) thanks for reading!

          • stynyr says:
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            @zzzzzz: Fucking A I should have done that.

            • Prezii says:
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              @stynyr: #1 rule of Razzball….. Dont tell anyone about Razzball!!

  2. Scott Evans

    Scott Evans says:
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    Why so concerned over finishing mechanics, JB? There’s no tipping after release…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott Evans: because not only did they vary by pitch type they varied within pitch types as well. And if there’s something in that finishing mechanic at the very beginning it could be picked up on. As I said it may be a non issue I didn’t see any pitches from catcher view, but he finished a lot of breaking balls slightly different and a lot hung

      • Scott Evans

        Scott Evans says:
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        He definitely hung a few — one in particular to D Wright that should’ve left the park.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Scott Evans: that one he got a strikeout looking on? Yea was right down the middle with little break. I see some rough games ahead but I’m cheering for the guy, been through a ton to get here.

          • Scott Evans

            Scott Evans says:
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            Yeah, comes down to spotting the fastball for me. Location got away from him in the 4th, as you note. If he commands that offering at 95-96, he’s gonna be tough to hit. Great start to dig into for this first pitcher profile post, though — hope we have equally interesting guys to look at going forward.

            Btw, look how tight he is on release: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/release.php-pitchSel=605228&game=gid_2013_04_07_miamlb_nynmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif

            Awesome stuff…

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Scott Evans: thanks man! Yea I didn’t have any issue with the release point it was the follow through. Very smooth until how his wrist moves afterwards. But with that consistency beforehand it may be a non issue, we shall see!

            • MattTruss223 says:
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              @Scott Evans: Wow, that’s a model of consistency!

              • Scott Evans

                Scott Evans says:
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                @MattTruss223: yeah, machine-like

            • Paddyman says:
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              @Scott Evans: If the release point is that tight (and man that’s pretty consistent) hopefully it will over-ride the concern about finishing points. I mean who cares where his arm ends up as long as the hitters are seeing the same release point.

          • Tehol Beddict says:
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            @JB Gilpin: a ton of dick

  3. Shake N Bacon says:
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    Nice article! I watched most of the game, because I recently got Jose Fernandez off of waivers in my league. I didn’t start him (but wish I did) and liked what I saw. I definitely didn’t look at it as closely as you.

    Would you be willing to trade Jose Fernandez for Cole Hamels? Given Cole’s rough first two outings and the hype of Jose Fernandez, I think I could pull it off. But not sure if maybe there’s some underlying issue with Cole (injury???) that may really hurt his season.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shake N Bacon: wow if you could swing that trade, you would be a master dealer haha. Do it in ASAP if you can get it on the table.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shake N Bacon: don’t think there’s any injury, but you never know…

      • Shake N Bacon says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Cool, thanks for the reply. Well it’s a keeper league and youth can add to the value of a player. Typically makes them overvalued. I may have to throw in someone else, like a closer in waiting.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Shake N Bacon: yea it’s one start. If you can trade those for a panicky Hamels owner I love it.

          • Shake N Bacon says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Trade offer sent! Wish me luck.

            It’s also nice that Yahoo! has a cover story about Jose today, hyping him up even more.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Shake N Bacon: Yup now is the time!

  4. shibboleth says:
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    I love these writeups, especially when they pertain to a pitcher I own :-D

    It sounds like his curveball might be worthy of LoMo’s nickname (“The Defector”)

    Does your fantasy advice change any if you own him in a deep 12 team keeper league that scores QS instead of Wins? Or does the QS make it all the important to flip while the flipping is good?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @shibboleth: thanks man! I would definitely try to trade him with his value this high. I think he’s more valuable with QS though, he could get a lot of 6 inning games that stay tied. Plus he’s 20 and a good keeper (if you keep enough) so would have to be pretty high. Above commenters have said Medlen and Hamels think those are both no question trades, if that helps…

      • shibboleth says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Much obliged, JB! I don’t know if I can sneak Medlen past my leaguemates, but it’s worth a shot. Cheers

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @shibboleth: haha yea they called that curve “the defector” a few times on the Marlins broadcast.

  5. Anthony says:
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    @JB Gilpin: when will the streamonator be up and running ?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Anthony: I don’t have a concrete answer for you as I’m not one of the programmers but I think we’re shooting for late tonight or tomorrow. I’m sure Grey or Rudy will have a post announcing it’s launch.

  6. MattTruss223 says:
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    JB – I love these in depth looks at a starter. I watched all of Jose’s start just because I was curious if the hype was warranted. I liked what I saw as far as composition on the mound. He was breathing easy and slinging heat. I didn’t notice much overthrowing or anything. Didn’t look like a 20 year old making his ML debut.

    Reading the article I had the same comment as Scott. If you are looking at this guys finish to tell if it’s a FB or a CB, at 97 MPH, you’re already toast by the time you realize what’s what. Understood though, that maybe there’s something before hand that could tip a pitch. Should help that he’ll be throwing in Crayola Canyon for home starts.

    I liked what he offered, especially the movement on that FB. Should be fun to watch anyway. Nice work.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @MattTruss223: yea and if they have to tinker on Anyang it could cause an issue. Definitely agree its gonna be tough to lock onto his speed and his fastball was no doubt a plus pitch. Just needs to get the curve consistently moving and get a little more out of his change. I also realize as never being a hitter and not seeing from that angle I may not be on to anything, but most pitchers have a little more consistency in final delivery. We’ll see though thanks for reading!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @MattTruss223: Anyang? What a weird autocorrect… Anything*

      • MattTruss223 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ha! Real weird, you visited China lately?

        Re: His Change-up – I was surprised he didn’t use it more. It had similar movement to his FB, running in on lefties @87ish. Pretty nice pitch.

        While watching that game I honestly had no idea who Baxter or Recker were. Yikes.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @MattTruss223: yea the ghost of the Mets batting order… Agree that first one he threw was nasty but throw only a handful.

        • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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          @MattTruss223: Baxter made a great catch in the Santana no-hitter last year. He also had an 0 for 0 with 5 bases on balls in a game in August.

          • MattTruss223 says:
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            @Wallpaper Paterson: Oh yea, I do remember that catch now

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @JB Gilpin: i thought his name was Anyoung.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @goodfold2: Annyong! Yes it’s annyong! We get it!

  7. Mike says:
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    Wei Yin Chen or Phil Hughes ROS?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Chen

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Mike: np!

          • Mike says:
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            @JB Gilpin: I really have 3 spots open in my rotation… its down to Hughes, Chen, Doubront and Wily Peralta. Would Hughes be the odd man out for you?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Mike: it’s so close between he and Peralta. As a huge Brewers fan I was not blown away by Peraltas start and not too optimistic for his this year. I think he’s actually the odd man out unless its a dynasty or something and you have Peralta for a while.

              • Mike says:
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                @JB Gilpin: yep its my dyansty with Peralta eligible as a last rnd keeper so that adds to his value quite a bit. I think Im kicking Hughes to the curb. What do you think Peralta’s upside is eventually?

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Mike: Totally agree its adios Hughes. I think Peralta has the frame and stuff to pitch 200 innings with 170ks and 15 wins maybe by 2015

                  • Mike says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: Awesome really hope he turns into a SP like that. Thanks again. Great piece on Fernandez. he was quite impressive.

  8. Prezii says:
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    JB wat the hell man, ur suppose to be studying basketball not watching pitchers! How am i gonna win my finals when ur over here spying on Jo-Fer!? Get back over there and lick Joakim Noahs planter facititis! Too many i’s? Who cares.. look at my name! I love i’s!

    In all seriousness, a lot of people have always hated on these, but they are very helpful in evaluating a pitcher you can’t watch yourself. Keep it up JBeastmode!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Prezii: thanks for reading man! Yup why I prefaced these can sometimes be dry but I think this brainchild of mine is unique in a world of lots of similar fantasy hooblah. Big weekend roundup and forecast coming tomorrow, with no games tonight because NCAA final I could focus on this one today :) see you over at basketball tomorrow!

      • Prezii says:
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        @JB Gilpin: you know it man!

  9. I-Man says:
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    Great breakdown. I was at the game but on the Pepsi porch so couldn’t see his hand well at all. The 2-seamer looked killer for the most part and the change-up definitely needs polish. I got him for free so I’ll enjoy the ride while it lasts.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @I-Man: Definitely. I think he was a great pickup for all who got him. I just wouldn’t spend for the hype right now. Awesome you were at the game I am only near AAA but will be watching Wil Myers for the Durham Bulls tonight. Thanks for reading!

  10. Frank Lynch says:
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    Hey buddy whats happening!!! How do you feel about dropping Hughes and picking up Iwakuma??

    • Frank Lynch says:
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      Also I got Holland, should I look at Herrera since they’re saying that he might take his spot or wait on that??

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Frank Lynch: hey man! Def would grab Iwakuma. I’m not sold on Herrera taking the role yet, but he won’t last long. I wouldn’t fault grabbing him.

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @Frank Lynch:

      Iwakuma is money. No contest between him and Hughes.

  11. OaktownSteve says:
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    Couple things. I like these write ups as well but do wonder if they could use just a bit of editing. Maybe pick a few representative hitter rather than cover every AB? Maybe not. Maybe the unfiltered approach is ok. I like the information but sometimes find myself skimming a little.

    Another question is how sure are you about the two and four seam. It looks like you have him sometimes in the high 90′s with the fastball and sometimes in the 91-92 range. My assumption would be that the lower end is the two seamer and the upper range is the four, but you have him at 97 on a two seamer to Recker and that would definitely be a point of interest. Either he’s throwing a two seam like Ubaldo was throwing a couple years ago or he has enough movement on the four seam that it’s looking like a two seam.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @OaktownSteve: thanks for the feedback! Yea I mentioned that to our editor saying it might be too wordy I sorta stream of consciousness through the game. Definitely will be cutting these down a tad. Positive it is the two seam as the commentators also marveled at its movement. Its easily his best pitch. It’s nasty!

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        I like the attention to detail, but every hitter seems like a little overkill for these. But what do I know. I’ll just give you a feel for how I would like to read it. I’d like to have a summary of the pitch make up at the beginning (fastball slider change etc, velocity) and how he’s going to attack hitters. I’d like to have a couple of innings where you dig in on what went wrong, what went right with an emphasis on pitch sequence. And I’d like to have a summary at the end. Again, I wouldn’t want to lose the detail and the unfiltered quality of the piece but I’d be drawn in more if it was sharper and emphasized your point of view a bit more. .02 cents. Take it for what it’s worth. Nice work and not a criticism at all. Enjoy the premise and the content as it.

      • Chris J says:
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        @JB Gilpin: when I read these I like the full picture, not edited highlights/lowlights simply because it gives a feel for the flow and the situation. Change nothing.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chris J: Battle it out you two! Haha.

  12. Frank Lynch says:
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    Thanks bro… I also dropped Reimold for Mark Reynolds. U like??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank Lynch: Yea that’s a good move

  13. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Brewers bullpen having massive problems again today.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: Yea I only watched the first 7 innings today as I was then on my way to the Durham Bulls opener. Saw Kintzler tried to implode and it’s Henderson now. Brewers fans everywhere temporarily rejoice.

  14. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Who here thinks Fernandez might really be at least 24 years old?

  15. j-bird says:
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    Teheran was dropped in one of my leagues and I have #1 waiver.
    Worth adding if I have to drop Tavares? (12 team mixed)

    (Only 3 man bench and 1 DL so I’m trying to hold Tavares as long as possible)

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @j-bird: hold Taveras. I am doing it in two leagues. Teheran will have good games and bad. Taveras, when he comes up in a J month, might hit well the rest of the season.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Wallpaper Paterson: I agree I’m not huge on Teheran but ended up with him in a lot of leagues at the end. Taveras has much more upside

  16. gary says:
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    Hey man, I’m looking to upgrade Kendrys Morales, either of these suffice?

    I could trade him for Ryan Howard and Lonnie Chisenhall or swap him for Willingham.

    Either of those look good to you? Deep league as well!

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @gary: I am not a big Morales so I would make those trades.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @gary: yea I would do either of those with no issues. Probably take the first if I’m not dropping anyone too good

  17. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Also, I am not a big Morales fan.

    • gary says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson:

      Which one would you do? Willingham or the Howard/Chis combo?

      • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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        @gary: Howard and chisenhall

  18. Longbeachyo says:
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    Love the info! I find myself on FanGraphs looking for this kinda stuff with little to no results. I also like how accessible you are and willing to break things down. Please keep the format the same as every pitch thrown tells the whole story.
    I watched jose’s start as well. Very impressed with his composure. He very well might be 24! I agree though, consistency (location) and better opponents will be his key to success. I haven’t looked who his next start is against, but I’ll give him one more before I start to shop him hard.
    I’m happy to see so many people reading and commenting. I enjoyed your posts immensely last year and must admit I won my league with the help of your analyses. Thank you! You deserve your own “daiquiri button”!
    Pay attention people. Finding good pitching off the FA list is key to winning a fantasy league, imo.
    As usual, may I make a request for next week… Ryu, Harvey, or Masterson? Thanks again!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Longbeachyo: Thanks man! Yup remember your feedback last year thanks! Ryu might be who I pick. A guy a lot of people haven’t seen (myself included except a few pitches) and looks great thus far. Thanks for reading! Ps over on the basketball side I have my own button it’s a “buy a crown & coke” :)

  19. Chris says:
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    Assuming equal depth pick one to drop:
    Daniel murphy: mets
    Jackie bradley jr: sox

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Close one but I got Bradley. About even everywhere, better runs and sb upside

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Chris: Murphy is firmly entrenched as a starter. Bradley could be sent back down to the minors. I would rather own Murphy at this time.

  20. Jay says:
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    let’s say someone has Jose Fernandez and another person is willing to trade Harvey fro Jose. The guy receiving Harvey should be ecstatic, right?

    • fantasynoob says:
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      @Jay: PLease tell Grey that I am the first to say this…but he has GOT to do a post on how monumentally STUPID the Diamondback organization already looks. I’m serious, Justin was already my favorite player, but this is ridiculous!!!!!!!

      And yes, I have him on EVERY team!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @fantasynoob: Haha sorry man! Yea just crushing. One could argue he needed the change of scenery though, a lot of tension with that front office.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jay: Ummmm, yea! Harvey looks really really good so far. Didn’t see any film on his last start but his stuff looked nasty against the Padres. Def want Harvey.

  21. LT says:
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    Anyone wanna give me some feedback on Chris Young in Oakland? He is a staple on my team in the past and he always starts insane just to get hurt and have it linger all year. With injuries in Oakland’s OF, is Chris Young a definite pickup till others get healthy or he gets hurt again? I think he is a 30-15 guy still.

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @LT:

      He’s a guy that is a fit only in a certain kind of league. He’s going to get about 100 games unless there’s a season ender for one of the three ahead of him. In daily leagues if you’re following so close that you can make sure he’s in the line up and put him in the line up then he’s going to give you production. But you need a roster spot and you need it to be a daily. Otherwise you wait until one of the OFs is on the DL.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @LT: I think he’s a pickup but 30-15 is really unrealistic. He’s not gonna play every day when everyone gets healthy.

  22. arnold sadoff says:
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    Didn’t realize you are a major league scout. Did you analize Hamels, Strasburg, Cain among others last starts? Nobody throws every pitch perfectly, nor do they not give up hits. Fernandez was outstanding. Yes the Mets will be below five hundred, but right now they are hitting well. I have been watching baseball for more years then I care to remember. Fernandez was as good as any first year pitcher I have seen. If you are in a keeper league, pick him up while you can. He has the potential to be F. Hernandez.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @arnold sadoff: Never claimed to be a Major League scout. His inconsistent follow through has apparently been in his scouting report before: http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/05/17/scouting-report-jose-fernandez-rhp/

      I didn’t even read that before going into the game. I also commented his fastball is way above average and also that he’s 20 and I’m talking about this year. I think he’ll have a K/9 with an ERA in mid 4-s. I thought Michael Pineda (I gotta stop making this comp!) looked better in his debut and had better stuff and he ended up with a 3.7ish ERA.

      Thanks for reading!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @JB Gilpin: K/9 of 9 is what I meant there haha

  23. Frank Lynch says:
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    Hey buddy!!! Do you think dropping Hughes for Iwakuma is a good Idea??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank Lynch: Yup, I definitely do it.

  24. JDW says:
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    And, apparently the breaking ball is called “The Defector!” HAHAHA!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @JDW: Haha yup, the Marlins guys were loving that… Interesting I may do that when MLB video is available. Thanks for the feedback and for reading!

      • JDW says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Cool! Again, it wasn’t a criticism. I was impressed with all the time and effort of your post. VERY helpful and much more informative than the video just showing the strikeout pitches. Yeah – MLB.com is great for that. Hit their video link and when the next page comes up you can “search video”. Just put the guy you want in there and you’ll usually have a lot to chew on. Like Matt Harvey – I own him but have never seen him throw. Pulled him up and WOW – REAL NASTY STUFF! Scary looking high fastball. Anyway – keep up the great work. I enjoyed the writing a lot.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @JDW: Thanks again! Yea Harvey looks for real. Gotta love that park and division.

  25. Random Collmenter says:
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    Finally got a chance to read this… great analysis! Excited to see Jo-Fer in his 2nd outing today.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Random Collmenter: Thanks man! Hopefully he can keep his mechanics in order and have that secondary stuff consistent, I’m rooting for the guy!

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