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Oh man, did the Crew need that win yesterday!  Even up 11-1, I thought K Rod might blow the lead.  The way things have gone…

But it’s not all about me and the Brewers!  At least, that’s what the girlfriend keeps telling me… Yesterday, Wily Peralta showed some exceptional stuff in easily the biggest game of 2014 for Milwaukee, but the day before, high-profile prospect Jimmy Nelson looked to make a statement as the newly entrenched starter.

Anddddddddd… It didn’t go so hot.

Sporting absolutely stupid numbers in the PCL (1.46 ERA 0.92 WHIP 114 K in 111 IP), Nelson also shined in his 2014 debut, a 5.2 inning spot start allowing no runs on 8 base runners with 6 Ks for a W.  But the mightily cold Brewers squared off against the red hot Redbirds to spoil his encore.  How much was his atrocious start impacted by wrong guy, wrong place syndrome?  Should you still be holding on if you picked him up?  I decided to take an uncomfortable (for me) walk down memory lane to really break down how Nelson looked pitch-by-pitch:

First Inning: Big Jimmy’s first pitch is a 94 MPH fastball in there to Matt Carpenter.  Nelson is a tall guy, with a top-down release, but his second pitch is a fastball in the same exact spot at 94 as well and Carpenter lines up the middle for a hard-hit single.  Nelson is high to Kolten Wong, looked like he lost his footing a little bit there, then a great change-up gets a swing and miss, 1-1.

Nelson-Changeup

That change-up was high, but Wong guessed fastball and was hacking.  Another high fastball is hit foul, then a perfect slider at 86 on the inner half of the plate is swung over and missed for Nelson’s first K.

Nelson-Slider

Command of that pitch will make him successful.  Matt Holliday, aka the Brewers killer, has a fastball run up towards his arms and it nips him.  Hey, Holiday, maybe lay off the bench press then!  Runners on first and second, and Matt Adams swings at the first fastball at the knees and he’s too far under it for a flyout to center.  Two outs, and Nelson spins a decent slider in there for strike one on Jhonny Peralta, then fastball up and in gets on his fists, but Peralta gets a flare single to center for an RBI.  Unlucky there.  Runners at first and second again and down a run early and Nelson starts Oscar Taveras with a fastball on the outer half and it’s slashed foul.  Man, the Cards are first-pitch hacking!  The 0-1 is a hanging slider that is way high and outside and saved by Jonathan Lucroy from being a wild pitch.  Man, that looked awful.  Another outside fastball is slashed foul, hanging slider taken high, then another rolling hanging slider is grounded to Scooter Gennett, but he scoots it for an error.  While the inning should be over, that still wasn’t a good pitch.  He hung all three sliders that at bat.  Out comes Rick Kranitz for a quick talk, then first-pitch fastball to Tony Cruz is six feet too high and two feet too far in ala Charlie Sheen in Spring Training.  Lucroy made another great catch on that horrible pitch, then the 1-0 is a fastball right down the middle and lined for a 2-RBI single.  On the throw, Taveras is tagged out at third to end the inning.

Second Inning: So down 0-3 against Adam Wainwright, Nelson really needs to bear down even with two of those runs unearned.  First-pitch fastball is down to Jon Jay, 92 is outside, 94 is low, 3-0.  A good fastball with sink at 93 is in there, then 92 off the outside of the plate is grounded up the middle, and backup SS Jeff Bianchi makes a ridiculous play to slide and pop up and get him out.  Web Gem!  Fastball is in there to Wainwright, a hanging slider is way high and tight, 1-1.  And again, Nelson seemed to almost fall over towards first place after releasing the pitch.  Something is weird with his footing.  Fastball on the inner half is grounded to third, two down.  Nelson needs a quick inning.  Carpenter takes low, slider hangs high, and that’s the past 6-7 sliders that have been hung.  2-0 fastball is in there, slider with some bite and his best in a while goes low and inside, and the 3-1 fastball looked perfect on the lower outside black but doesn’t get the call for a walk.  I think a vet gets that call.  The red hot Kolten Wong watches a fastball zip by him for strike one, then after two checks on Carpenter, Nelson throws a change-up right down the middle and it’s crushed for a two-run bomb.

Nelson-Hanging-Changeup

No movement, no nothing.  Awful.  Nelson responds with a fastball way up and in on Holliday, and Nelson is out of sorts.  A slider on the outer edge is swung over, fastball inside, then a high change-up is swung through and missed, 2-2.  Guest commentator Gabe Kapler said it while I thought it, even though he got a swing and miss, that change-up was high and hittable.  A good inside fastball – Nelson’s best pitch this at bat – is nipped foul, then a hanging slider that sorta fluttered high and on the hands is swung through for Nelson’s second K.  Not a good pitch, but it ate him up.

Third Inning: Down 0-5 now, Nelson gets a first-pitch slider in there to Adams, hanging slider is way high and outside, a good fastball on the outer half gets swung through, 1-2.  Nelson needs to live out there.  A hanging high slider – yes hanging again – is hit foul, then that nice inside slider gets Adams to swing and miss, one down.  That slider was very similar to that first GIF, with a little more downward movement.  Peralta takes a fastball a smidge outside, fastball again outside tipped foul, 1-1.  Nelson starting to command the fastball a little better.  Yet another hanging slider at 86 is way high, and yet again Nelson stumbled on his landing foot.  Something is wrong with his base.  Then a fastball on the outside edge is reached for and hammered for a double.  Cardinals can sit fastball right now, and adjust to hanging change-ups just fine.  Taveras takes a hanging slider outside (I guess I only need to say “slider” right now, sheesh), fastball smashed foul, fastball high, and fastball again right down the middle is hit to short, two down.  And this is just hard to watch, first-pitch fastball is four feet too high and two feet in for ball one on Cruz.  Another near wild pitch.  Rolling slider that didn’t do much is in there, the same high slider is nipped foul, 1-2 slider is way outside, fastball is way high, then a slider that was in the top half of the zone is hit oppo field for a two-out RBI double.

Nelson-Hanging-Slider

Nelson was able to get an off-speed over, but that is so hittable!  And look at how in the past two GIFs Lucroy reaches up and over the plate… Fastball gets the call on the outside corner on Jay, fastball again just outside, then fastball again outside is slashed to left for a single.  Cruz is held at third, and it’s another hard-hit base hit.  Kranitz is out again, and Nelson gets a good slider in there to Wainwright 0-1, a good sinking fastball gets a swing and miss, 0-2.  Might be his best consecutive pitches since the first.  Slider is tapped foul, another hanging slider is too far inside and high and that was supposed to be low and outside. Such awful control.  Fastball fouled off, another fastball on the hands fisted foul, then a good slider on the outer black is swung through to end the inning.  Still, it took seven pitches to K Wainwright and Nelson looks terrible.

Fourth Inning: Still without a scoreless inning, Nelson is low and inside on Carpenter, fastball is in there, another fastball hits the outside corner, and a hanging slider that almost resembled a cutter at 86 on the hands is popped up, one out.  Fastball outside, and this time it wasn’t as pronounced, but yet another stumble.  Fastball even further outside, fastball in the zone fouled off, then a good slider with movement in the zone is topped over and grounded weakly to second, two down.  Nelson desperately needs this next out.  Holliday takes strike one, fastball on the hands breaks Holiday’s bat on his hands, 0-2.  Then fastball just a tad high is swung through and missed, and Nelson gets a clean inning.

Fifth Inning: Hoping to build off the past inning’s success, Nelson is an inch inside on Adams, then bounces a slider, 2-0.  That’s about 10 wild pitches so far, just all saved by Lucroy.  Adams taps a low outside fastball foul, low inside fastball is hit foul, slider is pulled foul, hanging slider on the hands is popped up and just out of the reach of Mark Reynolds to stay alive, another high slider without too much bite is fouled back, still 2-2.  Nelson doesn’t have any put away pitches right now.  Fastball is a mile outside and Nelson stumbles again.  Somebody get this guy new spikes!  Slider right down the middle is fouled off, and the 10th pitch of the at-bat is…  Guesses…? If you guessed hanging slider way out of the zone, you win the grand prize!  Leadoff walk to a guy who had EIGHT WALKS on the YEAR!  Fastball way inside on Peralta, another inside fastball fouled back, fastball in the same exact spot fouled off, and hanging slider with Nelson’s what… seventh stumble now?  I’ve never seen a pitcher nearly fall over this many times.  Fastball on the inside upper corner gets on Peralta’s hands for a pop up.  Nelson still gets the out.  Fastball high to Taveras, fastball on the outer edge fouled off, fastball in the same spot fouled off, fastball way outside, then fastball again right down the middle is rocketed up the middle for a single.  And that’ll mercifully do it for Nelson, with both runners on base scoring.

Final Line:  L  4.1 IP  98 Pitches (62 Strikes)  6 ER  8 Hits  2 Walks  5 K  Gamescore: 22  Gamescore+: 35.2

Final Analysis: In a word, Nelson was… Pooptastic.  It’s interesting his Gamescore+ came out so much higher than his true Gamescore.  I haven’t done a Pitcher Profile on a start this bad, so maybe my stat needs a little tweak.

It all starts with Nelson’s fastball, sitting 92-94 with pretty good sink when on.  He touched 95 a couple of times, but as we know, his control was awful.  Then his main off-speed is the slider, which he had absolutely no feel for after allowing the first runs to score.  When it was working, which was only a handful of times, it had good late and sharp break that could get Ks as in the second GIF.  Off the slider is his change-up, which was awful this game after the first few batters.  Wong’s 2-run shot was a ball I think I could’ve gotten a base hit on.  And I look like Randy Johnson trying to bat when I’m at the batting cage.

So what to make of this start…?  Well this was sort of a perfect storm game.  Heavy hearts were going in with the the absolutely tragic news for Jean Segura.  Kinda broke my heart and made this game seem frivolous at the time.  Then to top that off you have an ice cold team losing 10 of 11, a red hot Cardinals team, a guy making only his second start of the year, and facing off against one of the best pitchers in the Majors.  While it’s easy to say any of those factors threw him off, you also can’t make too many excuses.  His mechanics were off the entire start, falling off towards first base and actually stumbling over several times.  Here’s an example on the 1-1 pitch to Peralta in the 3rd:

Nelson-Falling-Over

I’ve never seen a pitcher almost fall over so frequently, and it was on both fastballs AND sliders no less!  That led to all his pitches being up, and frankly his ball to strike ratio shocked me.  His control was miserable.  He walked Matt Adams.  MATT ADAMS!  It was Adams’ 9th walk on the season…

I didn’t give this game my full attention when live, and came into this profile thinking I’d still like Nelson and this was just an off game.  I’m not so sure anymore.  I almost want Marco Estrada back in the rotation and his historic home run rate.  I also thought Nelson would easily crack my ranks (and he did in my first draft), but he’s way out now.  Plus there’s suspicion that the Brewers are showcasing him as a trade chip.  Well, the showcase failed!  And if he is traded, he’s looking at more time in the Minors.  There is a ton of weight to his daunting numbers in AAA (and there’s no way he could’ve put up his numbers looking like this, much less getting a call up while falling all over the mound), but more weight on the mess that was Saturday since it was in the show.  Hopefully the All-Star break will do Nelson as much good as it does the Brewers and he can figure it out.  Worth a hold if you desperately need some K upside in 12ers, or if you have a free roster spot.  Even after the leadoff single, most of the 1st inning he looked pretty nasty.  But afterwards was so bad, it has me moving on.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto, and from this point to the end of season – green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
3 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
4 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
5 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
6 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
7 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
8 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
9 Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
10 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
11 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
12 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
13 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
14 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
15 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
16 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
17 Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
18 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
19 Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
20 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
21 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
22 Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
23 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
24 Jeff Samardzija, Oakland Athletics
25 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
26 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
27 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
28 Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
29 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
30 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
31 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
32 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
33 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
34 James Shields, Kansas City Royals
35 Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
36 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
37 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
38 Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
39 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
40 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
41 Jason Hammel, Oakland Athletics
42 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
43 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
44 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
45 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
46 Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
47 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
48 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
49 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
50 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
51 Zach Wheeler, New York Mets
52 Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds
53 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
54 Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
55 Jesse Hahn, San Diego Padres
56 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
57 Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
58 Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
59 Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks
60 Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
61 Dillon Gee, New York Mets
62 Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
63 Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
64 Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
65 Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics
66 Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
67 Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
68 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
69 James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
70 A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
71 C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
72 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
73 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
74 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
75 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
76 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
77 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
78 Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
79 Rubby De La Rosa, Boston Red Sox
80 Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
81 Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
82 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
83 Roenis Elias, Seattle Mariners
84 Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
85 Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
86 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
87 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
88 Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
89 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
90 Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
91 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
92 Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
93 Vance Worley, Pittsburgh Pirates
94 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
95 John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
96 Jon Niese, New York Mets
97 Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates
98 Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
99 Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
100 Chase Anderson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Dropped Out: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (UCL, ugh… brutal), Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers (“You’ve just been erased”), Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (yikes), Dan Straily, Chicago Cubs (ehhhh, still interested, but backing out of that one…), Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers (no trust)

  • I had to move a lot of guys down this week with injuries (and Tanaka out…).  Pitchers starting around 50 turn into Buzz’s girlfriend… Woof!
  • He only moved down 3, but a little worried about Zimmermann and the biceps.  That said, he has a high WHIP for his normal standards with a .329 BABIP while on a huge K binge.  Hopefully this doesn’t crop back up.
  • Dear Cram It – wasn’t it 18+ wins with sub 3.75/1.25?  Go Porcello, go!
  • Dear Ron Swanson’s Stache – Quintana looked awesome at Fenway, with two horrible non-calls on full counts drawing walks both scoring.  I owe you your next beer.  That said, couldn’t quite get him to 40.
  • I have no idea what to do with Mike Minor.  When he’s off, like yet again at Chicago on Saturday, he gets pounded like Miley Cyrus at a pool party.  I still think he’s a buy low, but the price better be damned cheap.
  • How annoying have the Cubs been lately?!  Tanner Roark had back-to-back Cub starts ruin his great run and the Braves starters got shelled.  Chris Coghlan?  Justin Ruggiano?  This has got to be just a hot streak…
  • LOVE what I’m seeing from Jesse Hahn.  But can’t rank him too aggressively looking at ROS – an impending innings limit looms for a guy off TJ a few years back and without a lot of professional innings under his belt… The lowly Pads aren’t gonna stretch it.
  • Another good start from Wade Miley.  I’m moving him way up this week.  More info in the notes from last week.
  • I’m still huge on James Paxton.  Now set for rehab starts, I think he can be a really surprising 2nd half asset.

Thoughts on Nelson and/or the ranks as we head into the break?  Shoot your comments below and enjoy the All-Star Game!

Also – I’ll be at the AAA Home Run Derby tonight, scouting some AAA power bats, so I might be a little slow to comments this evening.  But I’ll get to them afterwards!

  1. Clint says:
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    JB, will you be doing any kind of keeper league pitcher rankings before season’s end and/or a second half predictions piece? I’m doing really well in both my leagues and I’ve already begun getting keeper offers for some of my younger arms.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clint: Hmmmm, I haven’t really thought about it, week-to-week rankings are already tough :) What are some of the offers you’re gettin?

    • Baezaworldseries says:
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      @Clint: Trade the young fireballers immediately. Winter is coming. I’m shopping every pitcher who is under 26 and throws 94 and up. Every time one of my SP gives up 4 runs or more, chest caves in. I can’t take the stress anymore. I’m starting a hitter only league to thwart early onset angina.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Baezaworldseries: Haha sounds good for your health!

  2. Cram It says:
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    Dear JB, yes those were the lines I gave him for end of season. Key phrase, end of season, son!

    Now to my problem…do you think Rios and Holt are too much to give for Hahn? Didn’t think about an early shut down til you mentioned it.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Cram It: Haha I know. But looking good for me! I think I gave the 18+ wins and that looks pretty good. While Rios has kinda blown, yeah I think it’s too much since the innings limit is a big factor for Hahn. I don’t know a date or exact limits, but no way he pitches through and through.

  3. Chris says:
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    Hello JB,

    Would you trade Lee for Alex Rios or Michael Brantley, straight up?
    Do you prefer either one?

    Also, waht are your thoughts on Brandon Belt?

    Thanks,

    • Chris says:
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      @Chris: Also, Yu for Abreu in a trade. Who wins?
      Thanks,.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Lee for Brantley… Yeah I might do that if I needed the offense. I dunno about Rios though, that lack of power and 8 CS already is a little scary. Yu for Abreu would make sense if one team needed power vs. pitching. I think it’s a win for both teams if it fits needs. Hmm Belt, a little cold heading into break off the injury, think he can be a .270ish 10 homers rest of the way? Decent option, but I like all 3 hitters a lot more we’ve talked about than him obviously

  4. Joe Shmoe says:
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    JB,
    Is A. Wood a streamer? Since he returned as starter he has been mediocre at best. Can I let him go or is he a must own? What stats should I be looking at to determine his drop or hold status?

    Thank you for any insight.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Joe Shmoe: I’d probably hold. One thing I meant to mention in my notes is they really needs to get Minor and Wood separated in the Braves rotation. Both lefties have similar stuff so teams can gameplan pretty well. One cool thing you can do is go to Baseball Reference, and click on his game log, and then click on a top date and bottom date and get a custom stats readout of those selected games. So in the 4 he’s returned, batters are hitting only .193 off him. 19 Ks to 8 walks, not great, but I’m still encouraged.

    • Leifer maddness says:
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      @Joe Shmoe: idk if this helps but i agree with you on wood, i just dropped him in my 12team for jeff locke , and i drafted wood with the hope he would be a beast

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Leifer maddness: Ohhhhhh I dunno about that one :) I think Wood still has a lot to offer in the 2nd half, plus he hasn’t been thatttttt bad…

  5. mcBlunty says:
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    long term keeper league, been offered a trade would like your opinion

    I get
    Scooter Gennet
    Evan Gattis
    Garrett Richards

    I give
    Anthony Rendon
    Starling Marte

    i could really use Gattis as i am currently rostering Miguel Montero, Richards has been great but pitching hasnt been my issue, really like Rendon and i dont mind giving up Marte, what what you do

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @mcBlunty: I love Scooter! But since pitching isn’t a big need I think you’re giving up too much. Love Rendon in a long term keeper and Gattis is pretty old for a “newer” fantasy option. I like Scooter a lot too, but I think you’re giving up the better pieces, I’d ask for more.

  6. costaricanchata says:
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    excellent article .
    thank you .

  7. SMLV1 says:
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    All my pitchers moved up again, besides Ervin who stayed at 49.

    My staff –

    Cueto – 7
    Gio – 21
    Arrieta – 22
    A. Wood – 28
    Ventura – 32
    Shields – 34
    Fister – 39
    E. Santana – 49

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SMLV1: Nice! Yeah Gio went up a good bit then the gaggle of injured guys I moved down moved up a lot of the field. 7 top 40 pitchers, nice!

  8. Leeroy Jenkins says:
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    Hey JB, great write up. I too think Paxton can be valuable coming out of the gate in the second half.
    I need a little advice today. I’m trying to make a move with a record of 7-7, trying to get into contention for a playoff birth in september,

    H2h 10 Team Points/ CBS
    I just traded Jose Bautista straight across for Tulowitzki.
    I have received another trade offer where…
    I get: Cliff Lee and Alcantara
    I give: Matt Carpenter

    My team currently looks like….

    Vogt
    Abreu
    Carpenter
    Machado
    Tulowitzki
    OF: McCutchen
    JD Martinez
    George Springer/Ryan Zimmerman
    Util: Ian Desmond
    Pitching:
    Darvish
    Richards
    Walker
    Leake
    Hahn
    Locke/Paxton/Wacha
    RP:
    Rosenthal
    Joe Smith

    If you were me, would you trade Carpenter for Lee and Alcantara to boost my pitching and take a chance on a young Cubby at second, or stand pat with Carpenter to insure my middle infield.

    thanks JB

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Leeroy Jenkins: Thanks man! Glad we’ve both got Paxton fever!

      Nice on Tulo deal! Like the Lee one a ton too. I know Carpenter is drawing a lot of walks, but he’s gonna be way behind the doubles/triples/runs from last year hurting his Pts. Lee helps your pitching and I think a stud there especially in a pts league is gonna be a big boost

      • Leeroy Jenkins says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks JB. That’s some good insight and wisdom that gives me more confidence in my team. Good luck with your teams! It’s trading season!

  9. Jvillan says:
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    JB
    After making a trade I couldn’t pass up on for Jose Abreu and Nolan Arenado, sending him Julio Teheran and E. Longo.
    Now my starting pitchers needs a little tweeking. I’m in a 12 team H2H where loses don’t count. I have Anibal, Minor, Alex Wood, Eovaldi, Paxton. Available are Quintana, Odorizzi, Wade Miley, Aj Burnett, Liriano, Leake, Hughes, Morton,Vogelsong. I have room to pick 1 of the FA till Paxton returns but would you drop any to pick up any available ones?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jvillan: Yeah getting Abreu there is huge! Pretty even deal, and def gives you less Braves SP haha. Eovaldi I’m burnt out on. The Ks disappearing again is alarming. I would get Quintana over him. Then probably Odorizzi after that.

  10. Chris says:
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    Who you like more next season in a keeper? Gausman or wheeler?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: I think I’m going Wheeler, better league/park, pretty even upside in terms of stuff

  11. Sherm says:
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    Hello JB– Just wanted to get some impressions from you. Scale of 1 to 10… which pitchers are likely to tank in second half? 1, no way, they’re going to steamroll – 10 get rid of quickly.

    Bumgarner
    Cain
    Hudson
    Lincecum
    Roark
    Fister
    Kluber
    Ventura
    Shields
    Samardzija

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sherm: Ohhhhhh I like this game!

      Bumgarner 1
      Cain 3.5
      Hudson 3
      Lincecum 9
      Roark 7.5
      Fister 5
      Kluber 1
      Ventura 6 (more innings limit than poor results)
      Shields whewwwww, that’s a toughie. I’ll go right at 5
      Samardzija 3

  12. Connor says:
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    Any thoughts on Segura ROS? Do you think he is droppable or hold and wait?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Connor: I’d try and hold and wait and pray for his family. I just hope they can stay strong through this more than worried about baseball.

  13. Mike says:
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    JB,

    You would drop Gerrit Cole for Alex Wood?

    Cole has been kind of useless this year.

    Thanks…

    Mike.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: I think I would. More injury concern than performance, but I like Wood a lot. Any time!

      • Mike says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks JB!

  14. Justin says:
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    Drop either Alcantara or Pearce to make room for Holt?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Justin: I’m not a big Holt guy… I think I’m holding both your guys

  15. Jack says:
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    Always look forward to your column every week.

    Thinking about trading Pujols for Wainwright in my H2H OBP league. If both stay healthy and perform as projected, it’s a win for my team needs. So my main question is about Wainwright’s health. Jeff Zimmerman over at Fangraphs does a great job at looking at stats related to health. Jeff’s not putting up any red flags yet, but I did notice that Wainwright’s Velocity and Zone% (2 of the main warning signs) are trending moderately down from the beginning of the year. Offensively, I’d be replacing Pujols (who has some health risk of his own) with Duda, Dunn or Byrd.

    What do you think?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jack: Thanks so much man! Yeah I noticed a lot of 89 from Waino against my Brewers in this Nelson start. But the results are still there and his curveball command is just stupid. So I think I’d do it in a vacuum and def since it fits your needs!

  16. Peter B says:
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    JB…I live just outside of Milwaukee (Brookfield) and have been a lifelong Brewer fan. These last two weeks have been absolutely brutal! I also picked up Nelson in hopes of a great second half but that outing was atrocious. Any trade bait he represented is gone….although I don’t think that is the Brewers’ plan. I’m barely hanging on to a playoff spot in my keeper fantasy league. I’m in the unfortunate position of having a great team on paper but it’s not translating to wins. So, regrettably I do have to start looking at keepers for next year. We can keep 5 total players (2 OFs and 2 SPs but only one of every other position). I have the following guys to choose from:

    Stanton
    Goldy
    Adam Jones
    Puig
    Wainwright
    Cueto
    Price
    Tanaka
    Arenado

    Thanks and let’s go Brew Crew in the second half!!!

    Peter

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Peter B: I feel ya man, awful! At least they’ve all been close games. K Rod makes me so nervous though. I really hope he doesn’t turn into Axford. He’s already about halfway there with the homers.

      Anyway, I think I’m throwing back Tanaka right now with the elbow issues and possible TJ down the road. Scary. Waino I think is a lock, then probably Price. Then for offense I think I’m going Goldy and Giancarlo. Then wild card Puig.

      I’m gonna be in DC for the weekend series! I’m front row of right field outfield, so if a big goofy Brewers fan catches a HR out there, might be me! Haha go Crew!

  17. Mike says:
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    Just made a couple big trades
    Traded Altuve,rosenthal,melancon,Laroche and Felix H And got back
    Richards,Kluber,Calhoun and Puig
    I had plenty of saves and steals….
    How did I do??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Yeah if you’re good in steals, Altuve is a tradeable guy. Sucks losing King Felix… Butttttttt, I like your side a lot. I love Kluber and Puig is probably the best in the deal. I like it!

  18. Bobby says:
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    Would you trade Pedroia and Latos for Rendon in a keeper league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bobby: Whewwww, close. That’s a shit ton to give up… I think it’s really really close though, but I think it’s a smidge too steep

      • Bobby says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for your help.

  19. Bobby says:
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    Strasburg or Bumgarner? Who is your preference for the future?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bobby: Mannnnn. Flip a coin haha. I’ll go Bumgarner since long term they seem about even but he has the better park

  20. Sean says:
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    Points league H2H-
    Tulo or Wainright and Starlin?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sean: So just this year? I think since Pts I’m going Waino side

  21. Chris says:
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    You like kaz or arrietA for the ROS? Looking to trade for one to help with depth after strausburg and kershaw my pitching is iffy

    Fister
    Beckett
    Hammels
    Odprizzi
    Wheeler
    Guasman
    Verlander

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: I’m still going Kaz, although health and how well he holds up is a question mark. Well Hamels is a big one! And with those aces I think you’re not bad off

  22. Beastman says:
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    Hey JB, great column. Poor Nelson, what an awful game.

    Trade Harper and Lincecum or Dickey for Bumgarner and AJax? 16 team league where streaming isn’t an option.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Beastman: Yeah, it was rough. Hope he can fix it up. If you need the pitching I have no prob with it!

  23. Papajeansegura says:
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    JB JB!! what’s goodddd? Chris Archer > Fister ? Dawg what you smokin? hahaha I might be picking up Miley though.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Papajeansegura: Well yes on Miley! And I’m smokin the good stuff! Since these are roto, Fister’s terrible Ks is a big weight and I didn’t like him heading into the season so still see regression coming. What’s not to like from Archer? Just off one bad start, been killing it before that

  24. Hal Incandenza says:
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    Thanks for the pitch by pitch breakdown, JB.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Hal Incandenza: No prob, thanks for stopping by!

  25. Bob says:
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    Oh man. The tide has turned. Was having an amazing season. And then Injury’s as per usual have put it all at stake. Now having to consider deals I would normally pass on easily. My SP which was once a strength is now a super concern. Tanaka and Zimmerman, and lost Jose Fernandez Earlier in the year. Current Roster Below

    Weekly H2h Roto Categories.6×6 extra cats are K’s for hitters and QS for pitchers.

    Owner with Sale and Strasburg is willing to deal Sale. But only with Beltre coming back. Would you do Sale and Seager for Beltre and Liriano or Ventura? Owner also has Cobb and is a big braves Fan., Would you add in Minor to get Cobb and Sale?

    C-Ramos
    1b-Goldy
    2b-Altuvie
    ss-Hanley Ramirez
    3b-Adrian Beltre
    OF-Billy Hamilton
    OF-Adam Jones
    OF-Carlos Gomez
    DH-Carlos Santanna(1b,3b,dh)
    b-Anthony Rendon (2b,3b)
    b-Ryan Braun
    B-Kole Calhoun
    b-Nolan Arenado
    b-George Springer
    Dl-Edwin Encarnacion (1b,dh)
    P-Scherzer
    P-Bumgardner
    P-Kluber
    P-Anibal Sanchez
    P-Dillon Gee
    RP-Robertson
    RP-Holland
    B-Jordan Zimmerman
    B-Mike Minor
    B-Francisco Liriano
    B-Yordano Ventura
    Dl-Tanaka

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bob: Yikes on your SP! Luckily Zimmermann shouldn’t be out that long, but I’m still concerned.

      So let’s see, Sale+Seager for Beltre+Liriano. I’d be all over that deal if you can make it work. Yordano makes it less desirable, but maybe. So adding Minor to get Cobb back, yeah I like Cobb more so if those are thrown in on both sides then I’m good there too! So my ideal trade would be:

      Sale, Seager, Minor for you sending out Beltre, Minor, Liriano. That looks awesome if you can swing it!

  26. Crazy old guy babbling in the corner says:
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    Not seeing DeGrom on your list anywhere… What you think of him? Debating between him and Gausman to add..

  27. jamie says:
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    Guasman or yordano in keeper league? $ value being the same.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @jamie: Def Yordano. I think Yordano is still learning yet has shown he can pitch very well for long stretches. I love me my Yordano

  28. Joe says:
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    JB would you trade Adrián González and Jason hammel for David price?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Joe: Yeah, I think in almost all situations I’d do that one! Especially if Price can get to an NL team!

  29. Achilles says:
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    In a 10-Team, H2H 5×5 categories league with QS instead of W, I was offered M. Bumgarner & D. Keuchel or E. Santana for my S. Gray and D. Fister. Should I do it?

    Im concerned about Keuchel’s health so I do like Santana better, but I already own A. Wood and M. Minor so I dont really want a third SP from the Braves although theyre all good with upside.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Achilles: I think I’d have to accept that one! In only a 10 team you get by far the best pitcher and I’d take Santana too. I know it’s no fun having 3 Braves, but I wouldn’t worry about it too much.

  30. Mike says:
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    Grey is concerned about Yu Darvish and his last couple of starts but you confidently have him 2nd in your list. I could get him for B Moss and change…what are your thoughts on Yu for 2nd half and the deal?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Hmmm, yeah I’m gonna disagree with the boss man and I’m not worried at all. Still sub 3 ERA and crazy Ks. WHIP is a little high, but BABIP is .323 to .264 last year. Walk rate is actually down, it’s just a lot of unlucky hits. I’d be all over a buy low like Brandon Moss and change, I think Darvish will own for ya if he takes it!

  31. Trace says:
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    Any reason you left Despaigne out? I’d certainly prefer him to 10 or 15 guys that are listed.

      • longbeachyo says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Good call on Despaigne. Everyone loves that guy for some reason, but his peripherals scream regression!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @longbeachyo: Yeah and I think first turn through the league he can have some decent games, but I bet he falls apart late.

  32. longbeachyo says:
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    Excellent job once again JB. I was wondering if you wouldn’t mind making a list of pitchers that could possibly see innings limitations towards the end of the year, and permanently posting it at the bottom of your rankings? Seeing as how I’m shopping Anibal Sanchez hard, (Grey already hexed him) that would be most helpful in deciding who I should target.

    I like to stack my starters with just a few closers… With Wheeler, Paxton, Rubby, Vogelsong and Dylan Bundy all in my free agent pool, do you recommend making any moves for one of them?
    Jake Odorizzi
    Julio Teherán
    Anibal Sánchez
    Sonny Gray
    Wade Miley
    Jake Arrieta
    Dallas Keuchel
    Gerrit Cole DL
    Collin McHugh DL

    Speaking of Bundy, any chance you can watch one of his minor league games and give us the scoop!?! =D I’ve heard his stuff looks dynamite so far, but with a 75 pitch limit he’s facing, I’m scared to take a chance. Keep up the good work man! I still think you provide some of the best raw info on this site. It’s time to take Grey to ARBITRATION!!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @longbeachyo: Thanks man! Whewwww pitchers with innings limit… I actually kinda like that idea! I might give it a few weeks of thought though. Jesse Hahn is a big one. Surfing through my ranks:
      Ventura (who might not have had it before, but the elbow flare up I think forces the Royals to think about it if they’re completely out late)

      In a certain point of view, Scott Kazmir if he looks like he’s wearing down, hasn’t pitched a full season in like 8 years.

      Danny Duffy is an interesting thought, I haven’t read any reports, but off TJ and if the Royals are bad late, maybe they shut him down.

      Zach Wheeler late in the year

      Jesse Chavez with the depth (Tom Milone to minors and Drew Pomeranz is ready again)

      Stroman

      And even Cashner, just because all the injuries and Padres going nowhere. That’s if he’s not traded, but that seems unlikely since still hurt.

      Wheeler I would add, I still think he could get hot (despite maybe an innings limit). Probably over Miley, but I like Miley right now too… Keuchel is really close to cuttable too with his wrist injury and then ineffectiveness. I moved him down like 40 spots when he said something like “it’s scary because I’ve never had a wrist injury before and I don’t know what to expect”. Then the past starts after that have been bad. I’d sell if I could or give it one more start, and if that start is bad I’d drop him over Miley and grab Wheeler.

      Paxton is really close to being ownable in most leagues for me too. His stuff was incredible. I have him tucked away in my main dynasty league after someone dropped him. So excited, I floated some trade offers early in the year, but ended up getting him fo’ free!

      The only Minor League games I’ve watched is live in Durham, but I’ll see what I can do! Def will look at some Bundy highlights. The pitch limit is tough, and they barely found a spot for Gausman. I think a bullpen stint is coming again this yr.

      Thanks again man! Grey had me classified as a TE, but I want that WR money!!!!!!!!!!!!

  33. longbeachyo says:
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    Awesome man. You’re the best!

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