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Roy Halladay.

Is he the next Tim Lincecum?  Can he pitch at all any more?  Should he get sent to the minors?!  Is he fantasy ownable in a 10-team league?!  Is he really a doctor? Are Phillies fans all really that mean?!  Why does being good in baseball mean you have to have the highest WAR!?  WAR – what is it good for?!  What does all this mean!?!

Roy Halladay has been one of the biggest hot topics heading into the fantasy season and real MLB season alike.  After two brutal starts seeing his ERA climb close to the age of consent with a “woman” in France (14.73 – only 0.27 away!), the write-off for Halladay had become as frequent as an Enron tax return.

Curious to me was that debut against the Braves where Halladay got tagged for 5 runs and 9 baserunners in 3.1 innings, but struck out 9! That’s only one out not by the strikeout.  All or nothing.

Obviously all the hubbub from Spring Training and entering the season was the lost velocity.  I wanna throw fast!  If you’re not first, you’re last.  I was never big on Halladay because of his hefty price tag in drafts due to name value, but I thought he could be a usable pitcher this season.  So I decided to tune into his start yesterday afternoon against those lowly Marlins to see how he looked.  After all, if he can’t mow these guys down, he’s gotta be toast, right?

First Inning: Doc’s first pitch is a sinking fastball low to Juan Pierre 0-1. The next pitch is a fastball at the knees at 88 MPH, then Pierre slaps the next one opposite field that’s caught easily by Dominic Brown, 1 away. Man, Marlins Park is huge, not that that hit would’ve gotten down in another park, but it’s like looking at a battlefield in Braveheart. Halladay misses outside to Chris Coghlan at 89 MPH, then low and inside, 2-0.  With 6 walks already in 7.1 IP heading into the game, any 2-0 count is nerve-racking.  Halladay gets a fastball over right down the middle at 87 MPH that Coghlan weakly grounds to Chase Utley, two down. Doc is inside on former Phillie Placido Polanco, then way inside, again 2-0.  That’s right, no Giancarlo Stanton means Polanco is your #3 hitter.  Yikes.  Halladay throws a split fastball that dips low, 3-0.  That pitch still has monster movement on it.  He gets one over 3-1, then Halladay hits 90-MPH on the outside corner that Polanco weakly dribbles to Ryan Howard and it’s a 1-2-3 inning.

Second Inning: Halladay’s first pitch to another former Phillie, Greg Dobbs, is a fastball way outside, 1-0.  After an off-speed pitch is grounded foul, Halladay then blows an 89-MPH fastball high and on the outside corner past him, 1-2.  Outside with the heater, then a barely breaking curveball is fouled off, then a 90-MPH fastball pretty close to right down the middle, maybe a fraction in, is pulled for a double bouncing right in front of the right field wall.  That was a mistake about 8 inches too high and right in Dobbs’ wheelhouse.  On the first pitch to Justin Ruggiano, he successfully lays down a bunt and it’s one down, runner on 3rd.  Surprised the Marlins wouldn’t want to be more aggressive on the struggling Halladay, Ruggiano is a good hitter… Doc’s first offering to Rob Brantly is a curveball that looked like a strike but it’s ball one, then the same pitch a little higher is in there, 1-1.  On the next pitch Brantly dinks a flare to Freddy Galvis at short that keeps Dobbs at third, two down.  Halladay again starts with the curve to Chris Valaika that’s inside, then fastball low, 2-0. He gets a barely moving curve over 2-1, and a heater too far inside, 3-1. Halladay again goes with the curveball and gets it over 3-2, then a 3-2 fastball is hit out to Ben Revere right in front of the warning track, inning over on only 1 hit.

Third Inning: The first pitch to Adeiny Hechavarria is a fastball at 87-MPH over, 0-1.  Halladay misses outside and the next one is a fastball on the outer edge singled between 1st and 2nd.  Opposing pitcher Kevin Slowey shows bunt and Halladay is too high, then Slowey gets the next one down and successfully moves Hechavarria to second, one down.  Halladay goes up on Juan Pierre, 1-0, then jams him on the hands and induces a pop out to Humberto Quintero behind the plate, two down.  Halladay gets a nasty change-up over at 80-MPH to start Coghlan with a strike, then barley misses high with the curveball, 1-1.  Halladay slings a fastball over at 90-MPH that Coghlan grounds to Utley and ends the inning.  Halladay missed his spot a little there — Quintero wanted it outside but it ran in — but gets away with it.

Fourth Inning: Doc misses high with the four-seamer, 1-0 to Polanco, then the next fastball is laced up the gap for a single.  Halladay misses with the curve to Dobbs, 1-0, then outside 2-0.  Halladay goes to the change and Dobbs flies it opposite field to Brown, 1 down.  Halladay begins Ruggiano with a fastball that is fouled off, then a hanging curveball to Ruggiano is pummeled to deep center and Revere catches it on the warning track.  Probably a home run in Citizens Bank Park.  Of course the Phillies announcers are saying, “You pitch to the elements where you are…” I say pssshhhawww, he got away with that one.  Doc gets a fastball over then a curve to go up 0-2 on Brantly.  Halladay again goes to the curve, this time the strikeout variety, a dandy at 78 MPH that dove down and Brantly was unable to check his swing for Doc’s first strikeout on the day.

Fifth Inning: Doc gets a strike over to Valaika, 0-1, then misses low with the fastball, 1-1.  Halladay hangs a curve that’s fouled off, then a fastball is flied out weakly to right, 1 down.  Halladay pulls the string on a nasty change-up to Hechavarria that’s swung on and missed, then again the change is taken for 0-2, with the next one a fastball grounded weakly to third, two down quickly.  The fastball to Slowey is in there, then the next one fouled off, with a curveball at 77 MPH swung on and missed for his second K.  6 straight mowed down by Doc.

Sixth Inning: Finally with a run of support, Halladay gets a change over for strike one to Pierre.  Pierre tries to bunt the next one down the first base side and Halladay fields it cleanly and throws him out easily.  The first pitch to Coghlan is a fastball that’s grounded weakly to Utley, two down on three pitches.  Polanco takes the first pitch low, then a fastball down the middle, 1-1.  Then another solid change-up is grounded very weakly right back to Halladay for a 6-pitch inning.  9 straight retired.

Seventh Inning: Doc gets a fastball over for strike one, then Dobbs flies out to right, 1 down.  Halladay is still only at 65 pitches.  Halladay misses twice to Ruggiano, then he’s able to dump one over Utley for a bloop single.  Doc misses high with the curve to Brantly then the next is fouled off, 1-1.  Halladay misses low with the fastball, then barely outside at 88-MPH, 3-1.  The next fastball tails outside and Halladay issues his first walk.  Halladay starts Valaika with a curveball at the letters, 0-1, then Valaika weakly grounds the next one barely past Galvis at short and scores Ruggiano to tie the game 1-1.  That could’ve easily been a double play, but squirts through.  Runners still at first and second and the first pitch to Hechavarria is fouled off his foot, 0-1.  Halladay misses 1-1, then a high curveball is laced to center field with Revere catching it pretty easily, and inexplicably Brantly ran to third and is doubled-up at second to end the inning.  Poor, poor baserunning by Brantly gets Halladay out of the inning.

Eighth Inning: Still 1-1, Halladay sits at only 78 pitches and gets pinch-hitter Miguel Olivo to swing and miss, 0-1.  Halladay misses inside, then throws a great tight curveball that dips low and outside that Olivo misses, 1-2.  Halladay throws the same pitch, Olivo barely taps foul, then the next one is laced hard right to Dominic Brown who was playing back and he makes the catch in front of the track, one down.  Halladay misses, then gets one at the knees of Pierre 1-1, then Pierre yanks the next one right to Ryan Howard, two down.  The first pitch to Coghlan is grounded to Utley who makes a nice play for the out.  With Halladay hitting 2nd in the top of the 9th inning, it ends his day, and it was a good decision as pinch-hitter Laynce Nix hit the homer to win the game in Halladay’s spot.  Otherwise I think Doc would’ve gone complete.

Final Line: W 8.0 IP (87 Pitches) 5 Hits 1 Walk 1 Earned Run 2 Ks

Final Analysis: What a bounce back game for Halladay, who notched his 200th career win.  Either learning how or accepting he must pitch to contact, Halladay had only two strikeouts, one to opposing pitcher Kevin Slowey and the other on a check swing.  It wasn’t appearing he was trying to get them via the punchout like I’m guessing he did in that first start.

Halladay topped out at 90-MPH a handful of times, and looking at his velocity on FanGraphs, he’s only lost a few ticks since his prime.  The change-up looked nasty all day, and the curveball he could use as a get-me-over early in counts and flashed it still has a devastating break when he needs it on that strikeout to Rob Brantly.  The cut-fastball still had solid movement as well.

I would say Ruggiano’s deep fly ball probably would’ve been a homer if in Citizen’s Bank Park that would’ve scored two runs, but Valaika’s RBI single could’ve easily been a double play ball, so maybe a touch of luck with the help of Marlins Park, but nothing too dramatic.  Needing only 87 pitches to complete 8 is very impressive and harkens back to Halladay’s prime years.

A lot of people were calling Halladay a drop in even 10-team standard mixed leagues.  I think that’s a little ridiculous.  Is he a round 8 or 9 starting pitcher either?  Of course not.  But if he was dropped in any of my leagues I would be pouncing right on him.  If I could get a great buy low offer in, I would try to nab him as well, although after this successful start it might be a little tough.  The strikeouts won’t be there, but the control looks solid and I think could be a 1.15 WHIP pitcher when it’s said and done.  I probably bench him against some elite offenses (I’d be scared to play him against the Braves next time, for example), but he should be able to take care of most favorable matchups.

 

From Around The Web

  1. bobby j says:
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    Should I hold Greinke, or see if I can get Halladay for him?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @bobby j: I would hold Greinke. I think big Zack outperforms Roy in all categories when he returns, ratio wise on Ws and Ks obviously.

      • bobby j says:
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        @JB Gilpin: It’s true when they say you’ve got the best ‘stache on the site. Thanks.

  2. Scooterboy says:
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    Would you stream start Zito at Milwaukee or A.J. Griffin against Astros?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scooterboy: AJ Griffin. Looks solid and the Brewers are gonna warm up

  3. Charlie says:
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    Woud you drop Lincecum for Jake Westbrook, Bud Norris or Julio Teheran in a 12 Team H2H?

    Wanted to stream Westbrook and Teheran against favorable matchups this week.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Charlie: I do think Lincecum is droppable for streaming matchup plays. Gun to my head ROS I’d have to marginally pick Lincecum, but would like the better match ups.

  4. SabathiaWouldBeGoodAtTheEighthToo says:
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    Lincecum or Detwiler RoS?

    H2H points league

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SabathiaWouldBeGoodAtTheEighthToo: Sticking with Lincecum but barely. Take out the 1st inning (I know you can’t do that really) and had a solid game vs the Cubs. So much better K potential outweigh ERA and Whip risk between the 2

  5. I-Man says:
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    Drop Cishek for Mujica?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @I-Man: I’m probably sticking with Cishek for now

  6. jay says:
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    Owners in my league have dropped Parker and Cahill…how does Halladay stand against the likes of those two?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @jay: I’ve never been a Cahill fan so he’s not in the list for me. I think I stick with Halladay, but it’s close. Both he and Parker should def be owned

  7. Prezii says:
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    Paging JB… Paging JB… Ur needed for diaper changing in the basketball section! Paging JB..

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Prezii: Haha sorry man couldn’t squeeze in an NBA update today. Any questions for right now?

      • Prezii says:
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        @JB Gilpin: yep, i typed it up on ur last post in bball!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Prezii: ahhhhhhhh on the way!

  8. Jay says:
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    Drop Hosmer in favor of Reynolds? Have Hos on my bench and he’s not needed immediately. Thinking was to ride out reynolds streak and dump him. My fear is that I am probably getting on board too late.

    Could also pick up Torii Hunter, Gattis, Daniel Murphy, or Matt Adams.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jay: im Still gonna hold onto Hosmer esp since you’re riding him out on your bench. He easily has the highest ceiling so you can sit on him til he gets hot and get him back in your lineup. Hosmer would be picked up right away

  9. Chris says:
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    Should I drop Trevor Rosenthal for Jake westbrook, Patrick Corbin, or De La Rosa…Or hold off with the potential for saves down the road?
    Thank you

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: I like what I’ve seen from Corbin and when a bullpen is a mess, I’m usually not to big on holding onto a guy a few spots out. I think they want Rosenthal in that 8th inning role. I would nab Corbin.

      • Chris says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thank you

  10. Jimbo says:
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    Start or sit Dillon Gee vs COL and Correia vs LAA.

    HELLPPPP??

    • Jimbo says:
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      @Jimbo: looks like mets game is postponed, what about starting Correia vs Angels in minnesota.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Jimbo: The Angels bats are heating up so I’m not very excited for Correria…

        • Jimbo says:
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          @JB Gilpin: You are suppose to bring good news!! DAMN YOU :)

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Jimbo: Haha sorry man! At least it should be nice pitching weather…. Cold and dreary! 39 degrees and cloudy

  11. abe says:
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    would you deal prado + fister for dickey? my league has OPS and k/bb. I wanna deal prado because I have segura and rutledge behind him and I feel like segura might have as good as/better season than prado. i also need some speed.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @abe: Hmmm that’s close, I like Segura too but don’t think he’ll outperform Prado when it’s all said and done. I think Dickey is underrated though, I would lean towards the Dickey side, as he is the best player in the deal and you have solid backup for Prado.

  12. ferris says:
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    i like to post first then read :-)

    halladay or headley – 12 team mixed

    • ferris says:
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      @ferris:

      oops, make that halladay or hanley (only 1 DL slot)

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @ferris: Haha no problem… Hmm I think you can cut Halladay there for Hanley’s offensive upside. Tough early injuries for ya…

  13. chris says:
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    what about trading morrow for halladay?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @chris: Nah I like Morrow more. Much better K potential and I think Morrow ends the year with better ERA WHIP and wins too

      • chris says:
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        would you condsider moving any of these guys for either licecum or halladay?
        kershaw
        strausburg
        medlen
        moore
        morrow
        shelby miller
        ogando
        tony cingrandi
        Ryu

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @chris: Not the biggest Ogando fan, I think I’d rather have Halladay ROS but right now Ogando looks better he just wears down. Other than that no, I love Cingrani.

  14. yu di key says:
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    drop Edwin jackson and/or versa to try to stream top non closing relievers to drive whip and era down and also open up rostrt spots for spot starts? Lost grienke, now only left with sale, morrow, Zimmerman, Jo fer, Jaime Garcia,kimbrel, soriano and Promo
    Also picked up cingrani

    Standard 5 X 5 yahoo roto with daily pickups

    • yu di key says:
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      Meant Jackson and Veras, sorry, on my phone

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @yu di key: Not a big Veras fan, saw him struggle a lot last yr in Milwaukee. Great stuff, no consistency or command. I would hold onto Jackson tho, 3 if those earned runs were extremely unlucky against my Brewers on a Maldonado bases clearing double. Would stream good match ups over holding onto Veras who I think loses the job at some point

  15. Jason says:
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    How would rank the following in a keeper from here on out:
    Felix Moore Jose Fernandez

    And if the cost was the same who do you prefer? Felix or heyward?
    SPs- verlander stras Moore minor iwakuma homer bailey Jose Fernandez
    Bats y Molina votto zobrist assdribble cab longo Braun fowler morse werth marte Hosmer machado?

    Thanks for time man, I enjoy the columns.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jason: Thank you for reading! Would still rank those three the way you have them. Still have mechanics/consistency issues with Jo Fer based on that first start (he is only 20 tho so can work them out) and its just such a bad team right now. Cost the same probably Felix as he’s a steadfast stud vs. Heyward who disappears like he has early this yr.

  16. Yu R.A Trout says:
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    Start Berkman(who obviously has platoon problems against lefties) vs Travis Wood or Michael Young vs Homer bailey?

    Also have David Murphy but he has the same problems against lefties that Berkman does

  17. Yu R.A Trout says:
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    and thank you so much for the all the work, always enjoy your advice

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Yu R.A Trout: Thanks man! Thanks for reading. I stick with Berkman who ya doesn’t hit lefties as well but is a switch hitter and is 7 for 11 vs. wood with 2 homers

  18. Hoog says:
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    I’m looking to upgrade my pitching. I’m thinking of offering Jennings and Morrow for Price. Is that too much? I have Cargo, Choo, Marte, and Granderson to use 3 OF spots if I deal Jennings. It’s a 12 teamer, h2h league that counts QS instead of wins. I’m I giving too much or would the guy be crazy to take this deal?

    • Hoog says:
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      @Hoog: Could also get Shields for Jennings. Should I hold?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Hoog: I like the deal for Price better but it’s def bout crazy for either side. Price should be QS gold, Morrow gets into high pitch counts a lot. I’m low on Jennings too so I like that deal for Price if he takes it

  19. chunk says:
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    will you do Ryu @ BAL?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @chunk: Sure thing! I still haven’t watched Ryu pitch so that’s a great choice

      • chunk says:
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        @JB Gilpin: thanks!

  20. Frank Lynch says:
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    Sup dude!! I’m trading Cole Hamels for Justin Upton and also grabbing Jean Segura for Teix cause I have Reyes on DL.. I have gardner n bud norris and I was thinking of maybe grabbing Dempster, Mujica and/ or another batter cause with upton n gardner that’ll make 6 OF’s what do u think of the trade and do you like the 2 pithchers i mentioned for norris or gardnr?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank Lynch: You got someone to give you Upton for Hamels…? Dude…. Haha, nice trade. LIke Segura too, who knows what Teix will be when back. I like Dempster, I got a lot of flack for calling him a sleeper in the preseason and think he’s solid. If you need a closer, Mujica is your guy, he could hold onto the role, but I don’t think he’s that particularly talented. Definitely keeping Brett Gardener, I think I like Dempster more than Norris.

      • Frank Lynch says:
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        thanks buddy
        mat latos
        aj griffen
        jj putz
        shelby miller
        hisashi iwakuma
        cole hamels
        jeff samardziju
        jim henderson
        ervin santana
        brett anderson
        bud norris
        You think I’m alright without Hamels still? My pitchers have been doing great but no points cause No bats or the idiot reliefer F’d up.. LOL

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Frank Lynch: Hah, getting Upton for Hamels is a no brainer in all situations, youll be fine.

        • Frank Lynch says:
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          Haha man thanks for pumping me up about this!! Well getting Upton will make to having 6 OF’s that’s why i was thinking of dripping Gardner for Mujivs or Dempster. Or do u think having 6 Of’s is ok? I think I’d rather have Beltran then Gardner that’s why i keep saying Gardner. Keep Gardner right or pick up one of the pitchers?

          • Frank Lynch says:
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            Also noticing I got only 2 RP’s cause Shelby Miller is now a starter.. Idk I figured that I’d give you a lil more info to maybe help the question… LOL

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Frank Lynch: RP only matters for saves unless you’re in a deeper league and compiling ratios and a few Ks. I think you should trade an OF I wouldn’t drop Gardner

  21. Clint says:
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    What’s Halladay’s value in a trade? I have Gallardo, Lester, CJ Wilson, Maholm, Jose Fernandez, and Shelby Miller as my SP’s and was thinking of packaging one along with Howie Kendrick in a deal for Doc & either Kinsler/Uggla if I can talk the dude into it & you think it’s worth it.

    • Clint says:
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      @Clint: Oh, and I also have Morrow as a SP as well if that changes anything.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Clint: First of all, your Brewers-ness makes me love you. Yea I mean if you can swing a CJ Wilson (who I like the least of your staff) and a Kendrick for Doc and Uggla, I love that deal. I really like Maholm though, and the rest of your guys I think have more day-to-day upside. I think Halladay might beat out both Jo Fer and Shelby at the end of the season with more innings and deeper into games (more wins and comprable Ks, just worse K rate), but I wouldn’t trade those young guys in a Halladay deal.

  22. Mike says:
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    Who would you roster out of the following (only one, 5×5 standard roto) ?

    Roy Halladay
    Brandon Morrow
    Tim Lincecum
    Lance Lynn (currently have him)

    Thanks!

    Mike.

    • Mike says:
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      @Mike:

      For full disclosure, my SPs are:

      Anibal Sanchez
      Doug Fister
      Hiroki Kuroda
      Johnny Cueto
      Jose Fernandez
      Lance Lynn
      Matt Harvey
      Matt Moore

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: I like Morrow the best. A little bit of a rocky start but Lynn is right there too. I don’t think the old broken down guys keep up with those other two

      • Mike says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks! I appreciate the articles and the quick response.

  23. Longbeachyo says:
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    JB, tell me you’re going to be watching the Cincy vs Miami game tonight… Fernández vs Cingrani! Pull some double duty and kill 2 birds with one stone!

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