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For most of you, been there, read this shizz already, but there’s Razzball newbies (Razzbabies?) that need some coddling occasionally. If you know PEDS, skip ahead into the comments and discuss my mustache.  For the Razzbabies, c’mon here and let Uncle Grey burp you.  Maybe I can get you to spit up everything you learned at ESPN.  So, there’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy “The Fro Knows” Gamble.  He’s also touched upon some fantasy baseball drafting tips.  It’s a year or so old, but it’s timeless so when you read it don’t bother looking at the clock.  There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around, groping and the hiccups.  There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged.  And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy.  I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my fantasy baseball draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Actually, this plan is foolproof and you should ignore the previous sentence that said no plan is foolproof.  No sentence is foolproof, that’s more accurate.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Verlander. No Strasburg. No Kershaw.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d eat sushi off their nipples.  I’d go to a drive-in theater with any of them and neck for a solid two hours even if the movie is only an hour and forty minutes long.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Fielder or Pujols or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Kimbrel, Papsmear, Motte… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick, too!  And where are my pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player unless it’s a flyer with massive potential (like Wil Myers, for instance).

This rule has been slightly adjusted from previous years.  Let’s call it the Mike Trout Effect Or Is It Affect?  The MTEOIIA is telling you it’s okay to grab a hitter for your bench if he has boat-tons of potential and could end up being worth a lot more than his draft value.  This addendum could’ve also been called the Bryce Harper Effect Or Is It Affect or BHEOIIA.  As for grabbing a guy like Chris Nelson for your bench?  Belch.  I know, you owned Chris Nelson last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Chris Nelson on your bench when there’s a hot hitting guy on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing, but scraps on waivers.  In fact, we just took the aforementioned Chris Nelson in a league for our bench.  It was a deep league.  If you’re drafting more than 350 players, you can take a bench hitter too.  Or in AL- or NL-Only leagues.  Or in leagues that only use Astros hitters.  Tyler Greene or die!  Or Ride Or Die Enchiladas.  Oh, my God, Worst Cooks in America is the best show that’s ever aired on any network ever…Sorry, Breaking Bad and The Wire!  If you’re not watching Worst Cooks in America, you’re missing life, or l’chaim for our Jewish readers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flyer on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take flyers late.  You’re looking at either Alfonso Soriano or Adam Eaton, who do you choose?  Omar Infante or Zack Cozart?  Watching Reality Bites again and cringing at Ethan Hawke’s goatee or watching something new that you’ve heard good things about?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Bailey or Hughes?  I’m taking Bailey.  Garza or Milone?  I’m going Garza.  Marco Estrada or Mike Fiers?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Estrada.  Have I mentioned I like Estrada?  Yeah, I think so.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

283 Responses

  1. Hats for Bats says:
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    For the sale of positing a question, in a 12 team snake draft, what round do you think is appropriate to start drafting closers? This is assuming one follows basic PEDS strategy, your pitcher & hitter pairings, punting catchers til late, no speed only OFs and drafting first pitcher around greinke tier (did I miss anything?)

  2. Beardcrabs says:
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    cust curious: do you have a template for recycled posts like this where you just input updated names and jokes? if you do, much respect…

    Or do you just update it from the previous year…

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Beardcrabs:

      closer articles .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beardcrabs: This is a recycled post as I said in the first sentence…

  3. barker says:
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    16 team keeper league keep nine 1 catcher Lf Cf Rf slots and 1 util

    obvious 4 prince kemp pence verlander

    pick 5 allen craig carl crawford ike davis kipnis lawrie sal perez wilin rosario gallardo moore motte casilla pineda ( no)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @barker: Lawrie, Moore, Kipnis, Crawford, Davis

  4. Racehorse says:
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    Grey,

    16 team dynasty league mixer…

    Who do you like more for 2013, Ross Detwiler or Jorge De La Rosa?

    Thanks!

  5. bossmanjunior says:
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    Columbus discovered America. Thomas Edison invented the lightbulb. Henry Ford popularized the automobile. Grey Albright forgot to shave.

    • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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      @bossmanjunior:

      uh oh…

      a.) Columbus discovered America is wrong on so many levels. Let’s ignore the fact that millions of humans already inhabited this land later to be called the Americas, having discovered it millennia before. And let’s ignore that whole Leif Ericson voyage to Greenland and modern-day Canada around 1000 C.M.E. If Columbus discovered America, he himself didn’t know. Until his death he claimed to have landed in Asia, even though most navigators knew he didn’t. What Columbus “discovered” was the Bahamas archipelago and then the island later named Hispaniola, now split into Haiti and the Dominican Republic. On his subsequent voyages he went farther south, to Central and South America. He never got close to what is now called the United States.

      b.) Thomas Edison didn’t invent the light bulb. He stole it. Plenty of people messed around with the idea of the light bulb, (Jean Foucault, Humphrey Davy, J.W. Starr, some other guys you’ll never read about in a history text book), but Heinrich Goebel was likely the first person to have actually invented it, back in 1854. He tried selling it to Edison, who saw no practical use in Goebel’s invention and refused. Shortly thereafter, Goebel died and, shortly after that, Edison bought Goebel’s patent, (you know, the one he saw no merit in), off of Goebel’s impoverished widow at a cost much lower than what it was worth.

      c.) Ford popularized the assembly line method. Qin Shi Huangdi started the assembly line method (and, one could argue, was the first to “popularize it”) and then influenced Adam Smith’s theories of “division of labor”. Ford just took those ideas for himself.

      In other words, each of your statements is “wrong”. Perhaps Grey meant NOT to shave and didn’t forget at all.

      • Jay29 says:
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        @apoxonbothyourhouses: Owned. I would like to see more breakdowns of traditionally-worshipped historical characters with questionable bonafides.

    • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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      @bossmanjunior:

      oh, and for the record…

      i’m just messin’ with you

      :-)

  6. Powerslave says:
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    Beckett or Hammel??, Apply # 5 ??

  7. Allan Brownridge says:
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    Grey,

    I have 2 questions:

    1. The strategy of ignoring the top tier starters and closers is becoming super popular. Are you seeing that in the industry? and if so, are we getting close to the point where that strategy needs some tweeking? (I guess there’s still a huge audience here that plays in boner leagues where this will work for 10 more years due to poor competition…)

    2. Do you know why there aren’t more bench spots in standard ESPN, Yahoo, etc. leagues? I’ve run my own league for years now – we use the standard ESPN setup, but I have 6 bench spots. I typically don’t have more than 2 or 3 hitters on the bench, but extra bench spots encourage managers to look at daily pitching matchups, L/R splits, etc. and rotate their bench players in as necessary. It’s also one of the only ways to actually use up all 162 allowed games at each starting position.

    Curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

    • Rabbit says:
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      @Allan Brownridge: On your first point, I’ve posted comments in years’ past on Grey’s annual PEDS post on pretty much just that issue: if a strategy gets adopted by everyone or almost everyone, then the advantage you get by adopting that startegy is minimized or disappears, because everyone’s doing it. At that point, you may be better off adopting a different strategy that utilizes the fact that everyone else is playing the first strategy. Or as Grey has put it before, if everyone’s zigging, you zag. I’ve made the case in the past that if everyone else in your league has adopted the Don’t Pay for Saves approach, then (1) the cost (either in auction value or round taken) of the top closers will reduce substantially, because lower demand = lower price, and (2) the competition for acquiring saves off the waiver wire will increase substantially, as everyone tries to acquire “cheap” saves (which then aren’t so cheap because you have to spend a lot of FAAB money on them or get lucky and use your high waiver pick on them).
      2012 was an outlier because of the Closepocalypse, but in previous years, in sophisticated leagues, I have had success taking one top tier closer who came at a discount because everyone else was not paying for saves (think $8 salad instead of $12 salad–I still had some quarters left over to make the bed vibrate). One might argue that the 2012 Closepocalypse is the wave of the wave of the future, much the same way that the series of “historic” storms that have hit the East Coast in the past two years (Snowpocalypse I in Feb 2011; Hurricane Irene in Aug 2011; the Oct 2011 snowstorm (10 days without power!); Superstorm Sandy in Oct 2012; and now Snowpocalypse II last week) are harbingers of new, more severe weather patterns caused by Global Warming. Perhaps, but until I see more evidence that the 2012 Closepocalypse is attributable to Closer Warming caused by methane released by Bartolo Colon, I’ll continue to look for the Zag and try to nab one top-ish tier closer at a discounted price.

    • Pepe Silvia says:
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      @Allan Brownridge: @Allan Brownridge: This is a good question. In one of my drafts, Kimbrel still hasn’t been taken and we’re well into the 80s (it’s a slow ass Google docs draft). My next pick is pick 90 and if he’s still on the board, I’m sorely tempted to take him. Is the value too good to pass up or should I continue zigging?

      • @Pepe Silvia: That’s crazy on Kimbrel. Definitely take him. He’s the only top tier closer this year and is a good value pick starting in Round 5 (i have him valued as early 4th round value). Pick 90 is insane. I have him worth $4 more than the next 2 closers (Pap, Motte) which is the equivalent of 4 rounds in a 12-team league.

      • Allan Brownridge says:
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        @Grey:

        Thansk Grey. I personally like a few extra bench spots. It allows me to go all Billy Beane on people can use some players with great L/R splits….a strategy you can’t use in a league with only 3 bench spots.

  8. TheNewGuy says:
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    Ah this never gets old. Simple yet such effective advice, the definitive advice for any fantasy newbies!

    I should print this out and have it pinned on the wall for every draft….FOREVER!

  9. Stupid Sexy Flanders says:
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    In my league, it’s imperative that you use most if not all 162 games for each batter. That is impossible w/o bench spots. Are you saying “don’t draft bench spots” b/c you can fill them in within the first few weeks?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Stupid Sexy Flanders: Don’t draft them except for huge upside guys… You can fill them though post-draft…

    • The Rock says:
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      get the best bench guys and fill all 162 games for each batter. Even if you miss a couple of games,those 2 or 3 runs could mean the difference between 1st place and 2nd place. I leave one spot open for a “potential player”…..

  10. William says:
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    Grey, Good stuff as always. You seem to like Hyun Jin Ryu a lot more than most. Where should I be looking to draft him? I was thinking round 15 or 16. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @William: If you can get him there… I’d think around 120 overall…

      • Drexel Hill Dragons says:
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        @Grey: I would be surprised if you had to draft him there unless the hype starts growing in the Spring. His conditioning has already been brought into question in the first week of camp. If you want to be ultra safe, sure, around 120 will secure him for you. But if you like to gamble and wring the value out of each and every pick, I think you have an 80% chance of getting him more around the 175 range (current ADP is 220+). Now, if you know other league mates are Razzballers, then better safe than sorry. He’s definitely a guy that I’d like to keep a close eye on in exhibitions.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m pretty surprised by his lack of attention (or positive attention)… Be interesting to see him in some live game action…

  11. Fungazi says:
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    A perfect draft sort of annoys me. Two weeks into the season there are about 5 guys that everyone is scrambling to pick-up and have no one to drop for them. I think this year I’ll use a late pick on a Beachy or someone that will start on DL.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Fungazi: Then you’ll probably want to drop them before the season starts for someone but you won’t have a DL spot…

    • Drexel Hill Dragons says:
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      @Fungazi: You could solve this pretty easily by creating your own teams version of the NFL draft’s Mr. Irrelevant (the final player chosen in the draft). Just choose a player with your final pick that has little to no upside and maybe an injury or two already. He’s sure to be “the chosen one” when in Week 2 you have your eyes on that hot hitting youngster that was tearing it up in Spring and has continued to hit in the regular season. I’m thinking this sacrificial lamb should have a Razzball glossary term associated with it.

      Any ideas? “Player to be replaced later” PTBRL, “Switch Hitter”, “Cup of Joe” – in reference to a generic player (Joe Schmo), and also getting a brief taste of the bigs (a cup of coffee)

  12. Booya says:
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    Would you be able to do a quick post ranking the top 20 or 30 holds guys? The “You’ve got a hold on me” posts are nice but they don’t really rank them or give any sort of projection…

    • Cheese says:
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      @Booya: I second this

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Booya: I’ll look into it…

    • @Booya: FWIW, I’ve projected Holds and added them to Steamer’s projections (http://razzball.com/steamer-pitcher-projections-2013/). It’s different from most Hold projections in that I don’t take wild stabs. It’s based on a regression formula looking at a pitcher’s role, their IP, and their peripherals (mainly K-rates).

      My general finding is that it’s foolish to project any more than about 20 Holds for a pitcher (just like I think it’s foolish to project more than 35 saves for a pitcher). Drafting for Holds should be almost exclusively driven by the pitcher’s ERA/WHIP/K-rate.

      • Tarzana says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I like the idea of a Holds projection based on pitcher role, IP, K-rate, etc…. Have you done an analysis to see if this formula has pegged top middle RPs better than other peeps’ projections in the past?

        • I just built the formula a couple weeks ago based on 2012 data. I’ll test it this year as part of projection review.

          My model correlates quite high with actual 2012 Holds but it’s mainly because it regresses so heavily towards around 13-14 holds. So the model is very conservative. But my guess is that a year-over-year comparison of those with Holds>20 will show a lot of volatility (even more than Saves). So I wouldn’t dramatically change Vinnie Pestano’s $ value because he had 36 holds last year when a similarly effective pitcher might net 22 (Sean Marshall).

          • Tarzana Orange says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: Copy that.
            Do you think that a simple pH+pSV total (using the http://razzball.com/steamer-pitcher-projections-2013/ projections) makes for a decent back-of-the-envelope handcuff shortlist? Guys like Jansen, Frieri, Melancon, Cook, Valverde, Burton, and Bailey would top that list.

            • Well, it’s a bit of a loaded deck there. The reason those guys have saves attached is because I’ve set their role to be something like a co-closer. So I’ve subjectively determined those guys will get some Saves this year (and I’ve similarly deducted Saves from guys like League, Madson, etc. who compete vs. this pitcher). It should be that every team roughly has about 35 saves associated to it but – in the case of say the Astros – it might not add up to that much b/c I don’t want to ‘force’ it when I think the ‘field’ is likely to get the remaining Saves.

              So I’d just sort the list by Saves and anyone with < 15 saves are whom I think have the best chances for Saves outside the top 30.

              • Hats for Bats says:
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                @Rudy Gamble: To throw my two cents in: I look at the following:
                1) Previous experience/dominance as a HOLDS guy
                2) Clear 8th inning role (vs. lefty specialist)
                3) Scioscia-pathic tendencies of manager
                4) Pedigree
                5) Strength of team

                A guy like Clippard or Roberton who have the ability to add vulture saves are my top choices

  13. Scott Luke says:
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    Is there a version of PEDS for auction leagues?

    Would you say basically the same principles apply for prices of players (don’t spend too heavy on your ace or pretty much at all for your bullpen, have your offense squared away before you’re looking at $5 and under fliers….etc etc?)

    • Jay29 says:
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      @Scott Luke: Honestly, I think it’s far simpler for auctions, once you do the initial dirty work. Just make a spreadsheet, plug in your favorite projection system (or your own), calculate z-scores, adjust for position, convert to $, and draft based on the $ value it spits out, with minor adjustments based on things like floor, consistency, and upside. Once the auction is underway, monitor dynamic inflation rate so you can pay the right price at the time.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Jay29:
        Simple then…

          • ReleasetheMcKraken says:
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            @Jay29: Just learning this myself. How do you calculate z-score for strike outs and caught stealing? I’m getting negative z-scores where I should be getting positive z-scores and visa versa.

            For example – the avg strike out value for my data set is 113, the standard dev is 35. Starlin Castro has a Zips projected strike out total of 88 and Adam Eaton has a Zips projected strike out total of 114. But im getting a -.07 category zscore for Castro and a 0 category zscore for Eaton. Eaton’s zscore makes sense but Castro’s should be positive no? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Scott Luke: I’ll have an auction strategy post in the next week or so…

  14. fri-guy says:
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    What’s the prevailing wind on Bruce Rondon saying? I did a couple of mixed league mock drafts last night trying to gauge his value and he was available to me in rounds 18 and 22. I looked him up on MDC and he’s got a much later ADP than I expected, which fits in with where I nabbed him. Is anyone seeing him go higher? I don’t want to make the mistake of missing him. When I grabbed him, it started a 4-team mini run on closers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @fri-guy: I think it’s only about 30% chance he makes it to the season as the closer… He has solid stuff though, so could be a decent MR if they play in your league…

  15. Jon says:
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    I agree with the guy above. I’d love to see a short list of a some non-saves RPs you’d target late in a draft, i.e. Jansen, Robertson, etc. I’m not in a holds league but I love the rations/Ks/vulture saves.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jon: For non-Holds leagues the important ones were in my last Closer Look…

  16. OaktownSteve says:
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    Top o’ the mornin’, Albright. Yesterday I did some bad acid…er…bad math on your site. Wanted to apologize and correct myself. I overstated the value of BA relative to standings. Post pretty much got glossed over but I wish one of all y’all had said, “hey wait a minute, that looks borderline bonkers.” Anyway, for a long time I’ve wanted a better way to think about the effect of one player’s average on the standings (ERA and WHIP too) because the rate stats are slippery. So here’s another pass presented with both more and less confidence. I encourage somebody, anybody, to poke a hole in this.

    Average team ABs in 2012 RCL=7111
    Average team hits in 2012 RCL=1898 (.267 avg)

    let pAB=projected at bats for a given player
    pAVG=projected batting average for that player

    (pAB-547)+7111= adjusted AB team total (aAB for short)

    aAB x .2694 = number of hits (aH) needed to hit .2694
    aAB x .267 = average number of hits

    (aAB x .2694) – (aAB x .267) = hits needed to go up one standings point (SP)

    so (pAVG x pAB)-(.267 x a AB)=extra player hits (xH)

    xH/SP= player effect on standings pSP

    so if you have a guy projected to hit .300 in 650 ABs lets see if it works:

    (600-547) + 7111=7164

    7164 x .267 = 1912.7
    7164 x .2694 = 1930

    1930 – 1912.7 = 17.3 hits to move up a point (SP)

    (.300 x 650) – (.267 x 650) = 21.5 xH

    21.5/17.3 = 1.24 standings point gain (pSP)

    or roughly equivalent to a guy who hits 30 home runs but is average in every other category or steals 23.5 bases but is average in every other category.

    There…that feels better

    I did it for WHIP and ERA too, but I’m not going to post it lest heads start exploding like in Scanners (starting with mine)

    • MattTruss223 says:
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      @OaktownSteve: Checks out to me. Only thing I noticed is you used 600 for pAB in your calc instead of 650. No difference though, you still get 17.3 hits to move up a standing point whether you have 7164 aAB or 7214 aAB. Interesting data though…17 extra hits, that’s not many. Now the trick is finding a guy to hit .300 over 650 ABs.

      • MattTruss223 says:
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        @MattTruss223: Oh yea, and I have to think this same type of calculation gets used by Rudy for his Point Shares

        • @MattTruss223: Yeah, that’s roughly the Point Share way I handle all rate stats. I just swap in a player’s H/AB into an average team’s projections and swap out the average player’s H/AB. It gets more confusing when you factor in position (I use 75% position average/ 25% drafted hitter average) and how I calculate the value of a standings point.

          So you could look at the Point Shares to get a comprehension of how much a player’s value is affected by AVG.

          • OaktownSteve says:
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            @Rudy Gamble:

            Nothing like reinventing the wheel. Tomorrow I am going to discover fire.

            • Ha! Well, at least you went down the right path. We’re all just reinventing wheels more or less.

              • OaktownSteve says:
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                @Rudy Gamble:

                One thing I am curious about that might be different is what are you using as you benchmark for average player and average positional player. I think from projections. I derived mine from RCL data and I am wondering what that means. To my mind, what I did here incorporates the actual behavior in actual leagues in terms of number of ABs and Hs required, but is very specific to not only RCL format but RCL in general whereas using projections would probably yield different numbers though by how much I can’t say.

                By the way, I had the first addition of that Alex Patton auction value book about 3 decades ago or whenever it first came out and here I am still reinventing it.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @MattTruss223:

        Something is still wonky. The number of hits to move up a standings point stays constant regardless of number of At Bats so I think, in mathematical terms I don’t need aAB. I can reduce both sides of the equation and make SP a constant.

        But you do get more xHits the more ABs you have (21.5 for .300 AVG at 650 ABs and 19.3 for .300 AVG at 600 ABs)

        Still tricky. Open to other reviews.

        Rudy does something a little different in that he’s measuring versus average player and average player at the postion in a 25%/75% blend.

        • I don’t think you can use Hits to determine a player’s impact on AVG.

          The formula is basically:

          (Total Team projected H – Average Player H + Hitter’s H) / (Total Team projected AB – Average Player AB + Hitter’s AB) – Team AVG = Player AVG +/- contribution. That contribution divided into what you determine as the difference between standing points for AVG (VinWins calculated this at .0024 for last year’s RCL)

          You can swap out Average Player for Replacement Player if you prefer a WAR/WARP-like calculation (i’m in the minority on average vs. replacement).

          • OaktownSteve says:
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            @Rudy Gamble:

            I’m not using hits exclusively. I am doing basically what you are doing. When I calculate your method for a .300 hitter with 600 at bats, I get 1.13 standings gains points and when I use mine I get 1.14.

            The reason that I’m centered on hits is that I think that xHits if it’s mathematically viable and I’m still parsing through this, is a cool way to think about the impact of average. It’s just easier to say Player A gives you more xHits than player B and get on what that means. I’m also doing that because as you know, most folks, yourself included, do a positional adjustment to their ratings and I want to see mine unadjusted so I can’t just go look at the AVG component of point shares or Last Player Picked. I want to put your equation and mine side by side and see the differences, but I am seriously starting to get dizzy.

            • You can have an xHits but you then fix the ABs. 20 hits in 60 AB has a much greater impact than 20 hits in 100 ABs.

              Thus, you can create a xHits/y ABs (e.g., 30 hits per 100 ABs) or something like that…but if you’ve got two variables, it’s more complicated than just using AVG in my opinion.

              • OaktownSteve says:
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                @Rudy Gamble:

                I think you’re right. What I’m trying to do is make sure that xHit reflects both the extra number of hits and the number of ABs in which the extra hits were achieved and I am not sure I am there yet. And I think both you and Grey are right, might not be that useful anyway. Now I’m just trying to do it to do it.

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @OaktownSteve: OS, how long do you plan on staying at that Holiday Inn Express?

      looks like some Good Will Hunting stuff to me but not Borderline Bonkers its Bonkers Bonkers but i like it. I use to do XBH to AB’s ratios and then turned it into probability problems.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: It looks right to me… Only thing is I’m not sure how practical it is to say you need a hitter that’s going to get you an extra 17 hits…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Me also not sure practical, Albright. But I have always wanted a way to see AVG through the lens of a round number as it doen’t really tell the whole story to say a guy will hit .275. I’d rather see it more apples to apples with the counting stat format (round numbers).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hear ya, but it’s apples to apples though I’m not sure if those apples are usable…

          • OaktownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            all things considered it might be time to make hard cider and drink up.

  17. royce! says:
    (link)

    I recall someone in the comments suggesting that razzballers put together a “harlem shake” video. Anyhow,it’s all over, because whomever made this just won:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vqnSwTXAAc

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
      (link)

      @royce!: the Harlem Shake has reached Nirvana

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @royce!: That’s amazing… Damn!

  18. Mr Gray: I’m curious to see the impact of your guidance will have on a Bailey or Estrada (listed too low on top your 400 IMO) draft positions

    In my practice drafts Estrada has been available in the 2oth RDs… ( Yes, some of this is down to auto picking – But that is not always the case) Bailey in the 17th…

    I happened to have these guys way up my charts… Other touts do too…. I think, that these guys are going to go as low a the 12th RD in your Razzball drafts. after the hype on here..

    You have nailed the pitching pretty much IMO… If folks follow your top 400 they may be there late…

    But then again, these guys are maybe not going to be there when you are ready to draft pitching according to your draft guidelines…

    *** Fiers is getting a lot of love out there too… much more than here … Have found him ranked far above Bailey and Estrada in place… One place right up there with Niese..

    One thing is clear… The BrewCrew and the Red Legs are getting a bunch of pitching love throughout FBB…

    I wonder, the impact on your drafts if 4 managers went pitching heavy… And broke away…
    Stealing that side of the board…. And sluff an O cat or 2… It could be a crowded table..

    If enough don’t take pitching early.. It kinda becomes self fulfilling prophecy Offense Only is the way to go…

    • @T Moore: Estrada being low = a high # in the 200′s

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @T Moore: Yeah, that’s the problem with saying someone’s a sleeper… They’re a sleeper so why not move them up your draft board? You move them up your draft board and are they still a sleeper? It’s like the chicken and the egg…

  19. Rags says:
    (link)

    So I guess here’s as good a place to post this as any.

    I know never pay for saves is a little different in a one-league format, and I play in an 11-team auction NL-only keeper. I have Motte in his option year, which means I can keep him at 8 this year but have to drop him after next year, or I can add extra years for five dollars each, but he becomes undroppable (unless on the DL).

    Now Motte is probably going to be worth $13 this year. Most closers in our league hit the low 20s and top tier guy might go in the mid to high 20s depending on crazy people get. But I wonder if he might not be worth the risk of getting stuck with him at 13 next year. The cardinals have so many arms in the pipeline (Rosenthal and Wacha come to mind) that probably one of them is going to end up in the bullpen at least.

    So do you think I let him walk, save $5 this year and $13 next (but pay more if I don’t get a rising closer off the waiver wire?). Or just bite the bullet and pay $13 for both years? Fwiw, Parnell at $1 is our only other closer right now, and a lot of closers are being kept this year, but there are a bunch of top set up guys who should be in the pool (Hernandez, Fujikawa, Casilla).

    • Rags says:
      (link)

      @Rags: Sorry, if it wasn’t clear, the options are $8 this year and then gone, or $13 this year and $13 next year and gone. (Or $18 for three, but I don’t think that’s worth it.)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Rags: Go with him for $8

  20. Steve Stevenson says:
    (link)

    Keep 3, up to 3 years with a 2-rd penalty per year, in a 6X6 H2H (the extra cats are TB and QS): Desmond (rd 22), Medlen (22), Rizzo (22), Darvish (6), J. Zimmermann (10), Willingham (22). Start 3 OF and 2 Util.

    Thinking Desmond and Medlen for sure, with Rizzo probably the other one. That said, looking at the other rosters, there will probably be at least a dozen other SPs kept (including several of the guys you like later in the draft), and a couple owners always go SP heavy in the early rounds, so there’s something to be said for keeping a second SP (Zimmermann, who’s even better with QS added in this league) and loading up on bats even moreso than usual; maybe grab Wainwright or whoever’s best available in the 5th or 6th, and otherwise all bats through about 12. Which 3 would you keep?

    • Vacation says:
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      I’m no Grey Albirght but I’m guessing he says Medlen and Rizzo

      • Vacation says:
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        Like I said, I’m no Grey Albright.

  21. Boston BF says:
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    Need some help in 5-keeper 10-team AL-only: k seager 5, jennings 16, sale 20, peavy 10, wilhelmson 10, trumbo 15, weiters 19, j montero 15 Not many pitchers are kept compared to hitters. Need 5, thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Boston BF: Jennings, Seager, Trumbo, Sale, Peavy…

  22. Jay29 says:
    (link)

    The problem is that as a fantasy owner you always need to zag when the rest of the league zigs, which impacts how these rules should be implemented, especially #2 and #4. Leagues filled with experienced owners have been operating on these principles for years, to the point that everyone is waiting on closers and going hard after the same 10 sleepers.

    So you have to zag. You need to do an honest projection of closers, and if the player is available later (or cheaper, in auctions) than you project him to be, you take him. And the sleeper/veteran decision in advanced leagues is no longer Eaton vs Soriano; it’s more like Eaton vs Werth or Victorino or Ethier. At some point the young player’s floor is too low to justify passing on a reliable veteran.

    With countless sleeper posts online, there’s really no such thing as a sleeper anymore. So when everybody overpays for sleepers, banking on a breakout, you can sit back and let all the reliable players fall to you. It’s not sexy, but it can win you a league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jay29: It’s one way to go… But your Werth’s, Ethier’s and Soriano’s need to pan out to… Just because they seem safer doesn’t mean they are…

  23. Greenmountaincoffee says:
    (link)

    Keeper question—H2H league w/QS instead of wins. Gotta keep 3(2 hitters/1pitcher) and give up the draft round.

    Braun (Rd1)
    Bruce (3)
    Heyward (6)
    Lawrie (16)
    Rizzo (22)
    Trumbo (18)

    Baumgarner (5)
    Sale (17)
    B. Anderson (22)

    • deftones0012 says:
      (link)

      @Greenmountaincoffee:

      Man that’s tough when factoring in what round to give up. I think you play it safe with Braun, take the upside with Lawrie with only giving up 16th round, and again only give up the 17th with Sale.

  24. ShidestheLimit says:
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    So here’s a strategy I’ve seen over the past couple years (that I’ve seen work VERY well), but I’ve never tried it myself as I find it a bit cheap and boring.

    I’ve seen guys take all of the top tier pitchers with their first 8 or so rounds gobbling up all of the top SP and closer talent, then focusing the rest of their draft on speed. I’ve seen managers go 2-for-2 in championships with this strategy in a 5×5 mixed league (granted the second guy swooped Trout early off the waiver wire). What’s your take on this strategy?

    • JoeC says:
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      @ShidestheLimit: You’ve seen it 2 out of 2 times? That’s a pretty small sample size you’re dealing with there, junior. :)

  25. Dusty B says:
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    Grey,

    I’ve seen where you guys aren’t as high on Aroldis Chapman as some others; especially when forecasting his walks. Just curious as to why? What are you seeing that others might be overlooking?

    Thanks,

    Dusty B

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Dusty B: Huh? I thought I was high on him… I said he could be a top five starter this year…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ah… You’re going by our projections there… That’s more of a Rudy question…

        • @Dusty B: It looks like WHIP is where Steamer diverges most from those other projections. (ERA is a little higher but that’s Steamer’s MO).

          I see three big questions on Chapman that drive his value:
          1) How many IP? (i peg him at 140 IP)
          2) K rate (Steamer’s 12.5 K/9 looks about right – would take the under vs. the over if betting)
          3) BB rate (Steamer’s 4.6 BB/9 is between Chapman’s 2011/2012 totals). I agree with Steamer that Chapman will have some control challenges which will drive up his WHIP.

          Assuming a slightly better than league average BABIP (because he’s so overpowering and could elicit bad contact), I could see Chapman’s WHIP over/under at about 1.30. The projections at < 1.20 likely aren’t factoring in the ERA/WHIP increases typically found when converting from relief to SP.

  26. Di Ro says:
    (link)

    If you we’re in a keeper league that had 7 more years left, would you rather have Trout or Braun straight up for those remaining years?

    btw, followed this strategy last year and it worked so well I won my league. Lets see more info on upcoming sleepers for your 4th and 5th pitchers!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Di Ro: Trout… Nice! Yeah, I’ll drop some more sleepers in the upcoming days/weeks…

  27. Wife got the nuts but I got Fantasy says:
    (link)

    Figured I just on the bandwagon and throw my troubles your way. In a 14 team league, 6×6 (includes OPS and QS), I have 2 slots left to keep, choices are Gio at $13, V Martinez at $1 (talk about planning I threw him in a DL slot last April for this draft) and Peavy at $1. What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Peavy and Gio…

  28. The Revenge of DRey2013 says:
    (link)

    @Grey,
    I decided to do a 12 team mock draft over at ESPN. I was trying to talk myself out of it. I could not and ended up drafting out of the 10 slot.

    My first five picks look like.
    1.) Prince Fielder
    2.) Giancarlo Stanton
    3.) Ryan Zimmerman
    4.) Starlin Castro
    5.) Gio Gonzalez

    During my fourth and fifth picks, I did not observe and see that Paul Goldschmidt and Shin Soo-Choo had not been selected yet.

    Would you have selected Goldschmidt and Soo-Choo with your fourth and fifth round picks?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I would’ve took Choo over Gio… You had Fielder so Goldy wasn’t necessary…

      • The Revenge of DRey2013 says:
        (link)

        @Grey,
        Thank you. For the most part, I can find my answers in one of your articles or in the comment section. The more I kept playing it over in my head. I came to the conclusion that you would go with Soo-Choo over Gio. I should not have ask that question. The Castro and Goldschmidt pick was giving me the most trouble trying to put my finger on which way you would go. Due to the fact you have Paul 13 spots higher than Castro and you also do not like to use a high draft pick on the SS slot.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem…

  29. Justin Cook says:
    (link)

    I have filled out my active hitter lineup, my pitchers are Matt Moore and Bum-diggity, along with Hanrahan closing. We are around pick 150, and Ike Davis is on the board. Do we break the rule and draft a hitter to the bench?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, if it’s great value…

  30. Ryan says:
    (link)

    10 team keeper league. I’ve got 9th pick in draft, and we keep 4 players. I’m def keeping E.Encarnacion, so which 3 of these should I keep — Round I’d keep them in after each name.

    Braun(1), Beltre (4), Gio(10), Darvish(11), Jennings(16), Chapman(18)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gio, Jennings, Chapman…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m gonna have to go down to pay Jose Fernandez a visit…

      • Tom says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I heard Jeffrey Loria put the sign out for that pitch.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hate that kid! (I hate that 30-something year old kid!)

  31. your best friend says:
    (link)

    grey,

    6 keepers in h2h points

    jupton, votto, longoria, kershaw, felix, are my go to kids

    agordon (proj for 660 points) and carlos santana (proj for 590 points) are on the bubble.

    normally id lean to more points (gordon), but catcher is F’d after the top 5 in the scoring system… who you got?

    spanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gordon…

  32. CadeWTM says:
    (link)

    I’ve played in a 9×9 keeper league for the last 11 years. One of our pitching categories (Complete Games) drives half the league nuts due to its complete randomness, unpredictability and such rare occurrence. The problem for the last few years has been the debate as to what to change the category to.

    My question to you Mr. Albright and all you commenters out there, what would you change it to? HRallowed, K/BB, K/9? Anything?

    Or would you change 2B and 3B on offense to just XBH and just make the league 8×8?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Change hitting to XBH or ninth pitching category to K/9…

  33. Steve Stevenson says:
    (link)

    12 team OBP roto league, start 1 C, 3 OF, no CI/MI, 1 Util. Which keeper to pair with my Harper (10th rd)?:

    Medlen (9th)
    Rizzo (9th)
    Lawrie (8th)
    C. Santana (6th)

    Thinking Medlen or Lawrie; though Santana’s OBP and power always entice me, 6th round is getting a little steep for him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rizzo

  34. Spencer says:
    (link)

    The whole “don’t draft backup hitters” is obviously heavily influenced by roster size; I don’t think you’re telling anyone to take Dave Burba Jr or the like at the end of your draft. I’m more of an Auction Snob now (yes I have a monocle), and in an auction format, I prefer to get four or so outfielders for 15-20 bucks rather than Ryan Braun and two Tony Plushes. I try to target guys who may improve due to age, or are coming off a bad season and may bounceback. So you have to cast a wide net in this midrange to get three guys who pan out.

    Okay, back to Snake Drafts, and my totally unrelated Keeper Question! Have you received any of these questions yet? (You need a designated sarcasm font on this site.)

    Okay, here’s my situation. 12 team, 5×5, standard cats, you keep the player in the round you picked them, and you keep them FOREVER. 5-7 keepers, two must be pitchers. And the nominees are:

    1st round: David Wright
    4th round: Matt Kemp
    5th round: Jay Vruce (I’m leaving the V on purpose, it looks cool.)
    6th round: Nat Gio
    10th round: Robinson Cano
    11th: Mike Stanton
    14th: David Ortiz
    16th: Madison Bumgarner
    17th: Jim Jones, I mean Jim Johnson

    Kemp, Cano, MadBum, and Stanton are givens. But what about my Final Three? I don’t feel Wright is a first rounder any more, but with so many keepers gone, he’ll go in the first. Just Help me Obi-Grey, you’re my only hope.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! Will look into adding that font… Gio, Bruce, Ortiz… If Ortiz has 1st base eligibility in your league, otherwise Wright…

      • Spencer says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks Grey, that’s what I was thinking, too, but I am a nervous baby.

        Ortiz does indeed have 1b eligibility.

        One last option I forgot to mention, because I’m smart: Billy Butler in the 5th. I’m sure his numbers will be better than Ortiz, definitely a bit safer, but 14th round Ortiz is gooood value in my book.

        Thanks, stay gold.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ortiz in the 14th is good value, I’d just go with him… No problem…

  35. BuffaloRunner says:
    (link)

    but what happens if all 12 people in an RCL employ the same strategy?

    i am going verlander / kershaw at the turn if I pick 12th, sure I’ll finish dead last but at least everyone else in the league will love me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha… Good idea! Wanna join my leagues too?

  36. mikey boy324 says:
    (link)

    Grey any concern with Phil hughes getting shut down for 2 weeks with a buldging disk?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Concern, yeah… But it’s still very early… He won’t even miss Opening Day as of right now…

  37. poop says:
    (link)

    Always wondered if you strategy differs when you are in an auction format relating to top starters?

    if you can get one at value what are your thoughts? do you have any auction tips such as these?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll have an auction strategy post soon… Top starters don’t come cheap, but I think it’s even easier to build a solid staff in auctions…

  38. Tarzana Orange says:
    (link)

    @Grey – Regarding your strategy 3, I’ve had good luck in years past filling my bench with SP-elig MRs as a way of boosting Ks and Ws in my deeper leagues. (Aceves in 2011 was particularly useful, for example.)
    A) Any merit to that strategy? B) Is there a list of these guys somewhere or do I need to just grunt it out like I have in past years?

  39. Jay says:
    (link)

    My question is: How do I approach this strategy in a keeper league where 80 of the top players are already taken? I am pretty much offensively set and kept no pitching. I dont pick until 9 and 12 overall. At this rate Greinke, Gio, both Zimmerman territory.

    I currently own: J-Up, Cutch, Kinsler, AJones, AJax, Starlin, Headley, Heyward.

    I threw back Holliday and Hosmer based on our league rules.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Looks like you’d be good to take Greinke or some #1 SP with your first pick… Obviously you need to bump up prospects a little for keepers sake…

      • Jay says:
        (link)

        @Grey: 6th round starts the keeper rounds. Typically this is where your top prospects go. I landed Sale here last year and used him to acquire Starlin. I will obviously need to focus on pitching. From what I know of, Verlander, Weaver, Sale, Price, Kershaw, Hamels, Cain, Dickey, MadBum, Waino, Kimbrel, Stras, Halladay, Lee, Felix, CC are already off the board. I am not sure Greinke makes it to me. Do I take Gio with my first pick or try and land another bat like Zimmerman, Bruce, Butler or someone to that effect? I can draft out and land, Minor, Niese, Parker, Estrada, Bailey etc, but I need to land the best player with my first two picks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d take Greinke or Gio…Or whatever SP I have next in my top 20 that I like… In that order…

          • Jay says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Do you recommend me going back to back SP?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Nah

  40. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Sean Burnett injured lifting his child into grocery shopping cart. Tied with Joel Peralta Camaro sandwich incident for best early spring injury.

    • Steve says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: That’s brilliant. And I bet it started out with Burnett telling the kid he/she had to walk this time and then relented to keep him/her quite after the tantrum kicked off…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oddly, Sean Burnett’s child was costumed as a sandwich…

    • Jon says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: I also like Liriano breaking his non-pitching arm by slamming into a door to “scare his kids on Christmas”

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Jon:

        Excellent. I heard the car door thing but not the back story.

  41. Jake says:
    (link)

    Keeper question:

    12 team league- keeping strasburg and wainwright for total $10. Who should i keep as 3rd?
    Price- 18
    Encarnacion- 2
    Dickey- 2
    Castro 3
    Cespedes 7

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Castro

  42. Frankiejay says:
    (link)

    Auction keeper league $260 budget, keep 4 then draft 2 from other owner’s teams, then keep 2 more.

    Do I draft Braun @ $41 or Choo @ $11.

    Considering how many great deals we have this year (Trout @ $9 for real?), I am tempted to grab a top guy who may go for over $50 if he gets to the real draft, but I also want to choo-choo-choose Choo. Help.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Choo at $11…

  43. 2 Giant rings says:
    (link)

    I’ve heard it said Reyes will be more prone to leg injury playing on the hard surface in TOR but as an infielder he will be running on the infield dirt as I see it. Is there merit to this injury concern on a hard surface for a SS?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      There’s no more reason to be concerned that he’s playing his home games there…

  44. Trey says:
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    Where does drafting in sweaty “glow socks” rank in the overall PED strategy? I think smart drafters will push Harper up a few notches on their draft board after watching this: http://goo.gl/Fw7xH

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HAHAHA… Those are clown shorts bro…

  45. 2 Giant rings says:
    (link)

    In a 20 team league with 6 bench spots, if you draft everth Cabrera would you draft forsythe for your bench anticipating a possible platoon? You mention this in your Everth ranking but It seemed ambiguous. Even if there is no platoon maybe Forsythe is worth drafting in a league that deep. Thanks Grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t draft both guys on any team…

      • 2 Giant rings says:
        (link)

        D@Grey:
        Do you mean would wouldn’t draft EITHER player on any team or you wouldn’t draft both players in any one league?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I wouldn’t draft both players on one team… Only so many Padre hitters I can have on a team, and two that could platoon sounds terrible…

  46. 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
    (link)

    Grey : If you had to trade a draft pick to get Medlen at a FA keeper value, what round would you offer, like 12?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      8…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pretty remarkable there’s even a niche for a Batting Stance Guy…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Steve: Question: Have you been to the Seychelles?

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I wish.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Thinking of that for honeymoon with Cougs… So you’ve heard good things?

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Of those limited things I have heard – and from the Google image search I just did – yeah.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Between Thailand, Seychelles, St. Barts, Brazil… Any input? I know you’ll probably know less about the last two…

              • Steve says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Lost out on Tokyo, huh?

                The only place I’ve been to is Thailand, and even that was only Bangkok for a day, so not really well placed to judge, but people I know say it’s great if you’re at one of the resorts – and there’s the food of course.

                As far as Brazil goes, the 2014 football (soccer) World Cup is being held there, so that might be a good or bad thing, depending on your outlook.

                St Barts always looks pretty sweet whenever I see it in Vanity Fair ;-)

                So not much help, but if I was looking just to lie around, do nothing and have people bring me a drink whenever I raise my hand, I’d probably lean towards St Barts or The Seychelles.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Went out to dinner with my Dad on Sunday (he’s headed to New Zealand this Saturday, btw) and he’s been to Tokyo many times and he says November is a bad time to go… A friend of mine went on a Amazon jungle tour thing in Brazil and raves about it… Thailand was a place a bunch of people I know went and loved… St. Barts got high marks from my dad for laying on the beach (which I do enjoy) and Seychelles just seems otherworldly, which is appealing… Is it St. Barth’s? Cause I can’t pronounce th’s so that might be fun…

                  • Steve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: He’s been here a few times, right? For the wine, if memory serves. Does he play golf or anything? Tell him to look out for me.

                    All those options sound good, but I remember being pretty worn out after the wedding build-up and the wedding itself, and all I wanted to do was just lie around and read a book.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, he’s going for business, wine and golf… Mostly the last two… Yeah, I’m a lay on the beach type anyway, so I’m trying to lean that way… Cougs doesn’t seem to care either way…Just about every place I mention she’s pliable to…

  47. Drexel Hill Dragons says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Would you consider doing a post based on finding like players statistically that usually have drastically different ADP, where the lower drafted player could turn a huge profit? Looking
    over the player projections and ADP so far this season a few have jumped out at me. Ideally they would be players that play the same position, and skills-wise could have very similar statistics at years end, but are being drafted at least 10 rounds apart. They also wouldn’t necessarily be player A you don’t want and player B you should target. Player A could easily be a guy that you want, but if you miss out on him, player B could give you similar numbers at a very reduced cost. A few examples:

    The Diamond: Michael Bourn – ADP 56
    The Diamond in the Rough: Adam Eaton – ADP 220

    The Diamond: Desmond Jennings – ADP 84
    The Diamond in the Rough: Starling Marte – ADP 210

    The Diamond: Felix Hernandez – ADP 25
    The Diamond in the Rough: Matt Moore – ADP 106

    The Diamond: Mark Teixeira – ADP 52
    The Diamond in the Rough: Adam Laroche – ADP 167

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not sure how this is different than sleeper posts…

  48. Chris says:
    (link)

    I don’t know if you have a theory on how many catchers to draft but please let me know if you do. Last year I drafted McCann and Napoli (relatively high), so I could almost always have a catcher in my line-up. If they both had game son the same day I plugged one into 1B or Util (in years past I have ended seasons with starts left on the table and I wanted to avoid that). Last year did not work out with injuries to both, thoughts on leaving Catcher starts on the table at the end of the year and how I might prevent it?

    - Curious in Cardinal Country

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks, I should have known better but for some reason I love “versatile” catchers, but not this year, thanks for pushing me over the edge.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem…

  49. The Rev says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Into the 7th round in a 14-team draft (23-man rosters – 2 catchers – no bench), and am feeling pretty good about my draft so far. The War Room is proving to be a fantastic tool in making decisions on what to target with future picks in mind. This is where I’ve got to so far (drafting out of the #3 slot):

    1) Miguel Cabrera (#3 overall)
    2) Ian Kinsler (#26)
    3) Adrian Gonzalez (#31)
    4) Madison Bumgarner (#54)
    5) Shin-Soo Choo (#59)
    6) Elvis Andrus (#82)
    7) Ike Davis (#87)

    I’m thinking I should probably look for my 2nd starter next time round (there are lots available I would be happy with), and then perhaps a 3rd outfielder. Would you agree?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No corner spots and A-Gon’s playing OF? Then, yeah, another SP then a OF or RP…

      • The Rev says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Sorry should have made it clear – there are CI and MI spots, 5 OF, Utl and 9 P.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          So you have A-Gon in the OF for now? I’d go with a SP, corner man or OF in the next 2 picks… Then start looking at RP or SP depending on whether you drafted one in those other two picks…

  50. D Rich says:
    (link)

    Grey Dog! I need your help one more time…I play in a 12 team 8 player keeper dynasty league. As of now have 6 offensive guys and 2 pitchers. I followed you last year and took Gio! (great call you’re a legend) So i have Gio and Strasburg at SP. I could trade Gio for Machado right now and roll with only 1 pitcher going into the draft. (starts round 9 bc of keepers). It looks like Sherzer, Latos, J Zimmerman, Samardjza will be there for me. Should i do the trade? I also have Ryan Zimmerman at 3rd already. Thanks for your help

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t do the trade…

      • D Rich says:
        (link)

        Thanks!

        Posey, Prince, McCutchen, Des Jennings, Hanley, Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman are for sure my keepers.

        Gio or Machado final spot- I wish you would have said Machado is the future. What if i told you i could draft Samardjza and Scherczer back to back in first 2 rounds?
        Sorry i have a man crush on Machado and i always respect your thoughts

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You’re throwing back a guy with 200 Ks for your 2nd 3rd baseman? Eh…

          • D Rich says:
            (link)

            Exactly what i needed to hear…thanks bud

          • D Rich says:
            (link)

            Sorry for same questions..but in my league we have 3 utility spots and one 3 bag spot…does that change your view?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              It doesn’t change my view…

              • D Rich says:
                (link)

                Thanks… By the way I have known Razzball writer Tehol since I was a kid, I was in his wedding. For the record you’re cooler and know more haha

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I agree! Plus, more handsome…

                  • Tehol Beddict says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: certainly no denying that

                  • D Rich says:
                    (link)

                    I was up all night brokering deals and bothering people haha..I ended up trading with few teams to work it out but got rid of Ryan Zimmerman and Gio for Machado and Yu Darvish…got my 200 ks back…would you have dont that one.

  51. Robert says:
    (link)

    I’m loving this strategy and I feel like I’ve already followed a similar strategy on my own the past two years, but finding it written out like this is like finding my holy book and being able to come down from Sinai and say, “see I told you F*ckers” to the rest of my friends.

    How would you apply these rules when forced to keep 6 in a 10 team H2H?

    I currently have as my keepers:
    Stanton, Bourn, Tulo, CarGo, Cliff Lee, and Halladay.

    I also have the options of: Sal Perez, Manny Machado, Ike Davis, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson, and Jose Altuve. I’m also trying to work a draft with a friend potentially to get rid of Halladay for Harper before the draft, with picks being part of the deal.

    Two questions: Should I just drop one of my keepers and keep one from the list I gave, and if I’m able to swing the deal for Bryce for Halladay, what would you commit to in terms of picks? (Given the keepers, the first 6 rounds are moot) so I can start trading at the 7th round. So would Harper and a 12th or 13th for Halladay and a 10th be a good pick? I’m the only one using my own modified version of PEDS anyway so I always get some sleepers and have no problems. How much would you give up to get Harper for Halladay in terms of rounds sacrificed?

    • Robert says:
      (link)

      @Robert: meant to say work a trade, not work a draft…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Definitely take Harper for Halladay if you can make it happen… I’d commit whatever picks needed to be committed to a certain extent… Ask them what they want… I’d go high as a 8th rounder… So 2nd round…

  52. gareth says:
    (link)

    I was offered brett lawrie and carlos marmol for billy butler. I don’t need a closer but do need a back up for a-ram. My first basemen are votto and goldy. Its a league where you have 1 starting first basemen and one starting corner infielder.

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds decent…

      • Gareth says:
        (link)

        I thought giving up the best player in a trade was a bad idea though?

        • Gareth says:
          (link)

          Also Parnell and Veras are still on the wire, so why pick up Marmol? I’m not a fan of his at all. I think he can adversely affect the era and whip of a staff. And lose the closers job.

          So its Butlers proven production versus Lawrie’s upside. This is tough. Would you make the deal or stand pat?

          • Gareth says:
            (link)

            Year Games AB R AVE HR RBI BB KO SB

            BUTLER- 2012 161 61 4 72 0.312 29 107 54 111 2

            LAWRIE – 2012 125 49 4 73 0.273 11 48 33 86 13

  53. Adam says:
    (link)

    Tried to stick to PEDS for a 12 team yahoo roto mock draft, and I thought it worked very very well. Any big flaws you can see?

    C – Perez
    1B – Votto
    2B – Altuve
    3B – Beltre
    SS – Hanley
    OF – Cespedes
    OF – Jennings
    OF – Beltran
    UTIL – Fowler
    UTIL – Werth

    SP – Gio
    SP – Halladay
    RP – Holland
    RP – Axford
    P – Peavy
    P – Kuroda
    P – Niese
    P – Beckett

    B – Marmol (yep, he was still available in the 20th rd)
    B – Romero
    B – Berkman (would be a 1-2 week hold to see if he’s better for UTIL than Werth)
    B – Robertson
    B – Myers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Team looks solid, I don’t think I’d draft Werth for a 2nd UTIL guy, but if he’s there that late in a draft it’s not terrible… Berkman’s really eh as a UTIL guy/fill-in… Team does look good though, I’m nitpicking…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wow, it’s snowing in Arizona? That can’t be good for pitchers and catchers either…

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Grey: It’s hailing too. CJ Wilson didn’t take his Bentley out today for that very reason. Poor guy.

        What does your Dad do (if you don’t mind me asking)?

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
          (link)

          @Steve: I’m going to guess an accountant or aluminum citing salesman

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Jack Full of Hate is close… Salesman… Computer shizz…

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I’ll keep my eyes peeled for checked sport coats and white shoes. (my dad was a car dealer so I can make those jokes)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              That’s actually pretty accurate as far as his dress goes…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, gotta have the plaid pants… I don’t drink much at all… Especially not beer… Why?

                  • Steve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Eh, just wondering. Thought we could get a craft beer conversation going – goes pretty well with FBB.

                    • Steve says:
                      (link)

                      @Steve: I mean, I don’t know much about it – just that I like drinking it.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      BTW, Steve I live in Oregon which I think has the most microbreweries per capita than any other state. I think we’ll eventually swap our tap water out for Pale Ale.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I think Sky’s a big beer drinker…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Weird timing. I just clicked to see what the top comment is and you’re all talking about my future intervention. Just don’t call Dr. Drew about this one, ok?

                      And because today was opposite day, the Mrs. and I were out for a late V-Day drinking wine and eating half a block of cheese at a local winery. Well, I ate a half a block of cheese. Is it normal for your intestines to feel like cement?

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I was thinking jersey and for some reason thought of the movie Tin Men.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              He started in Jersey, he’s in the Silicon Valley now…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Grey: ooh he’s good. At least your dad is only a 5 hour drive away

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Um, yeah… Yay! He works for one of those computers that you’re not even sure what they do after you read about it…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: so we have father issues, hmmm. He hates the stauche doesn’t he. “Son you need to shave that ridiculous thing off, you’re not Burt Reynolds nor Tom Selleck”

                    you “why do you have to hate what I love so much dad, Don mattingly has one and he is awesome”

                    dad ” you are not Don Mattingly and if you were you would probably listen to your father, I’m sure Don Mattingly listened to his father”

                    you ” I hate you, I’m moving to California to get as far away from you as possible”

                    dad ” welll I’ll move out there too, so there you go genius”

                    I should stop so i don’t hit a nerve.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Hahahaha… “How about you become a doctor or lawyer?” “How about a fantasy baseball blogger?” “I’m glad you’re not a junior.”

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: I’d be impressed if your dad knew about Blog’s before they existed.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      In all seriousness, the blog was originally his idea…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: oh, well then thank you mr goldstein

  54. Steve says:
    (link)

    I’m just about to head off and meet some friends for a drink – I’ll be definitely be looking to get my IPA on.

    Can’t hardly drink mass-produced lager anymore…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Yeah growing up I always thought I hated beer. Turns out I just hate bad beer.

      Love IPAs but cant handle too many. I swear I wake up foggy even after two of them. Now does that stop me? Well, I’m not gonna lie and say I’m that smart.

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I still love my high life on a hot day or coors light when i’m gambling so I don’t lose my ass.

        The hard stuff every other time

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Yeah I’m not a huge lager fan. The stuff is palatable but not something I’d drink. Good strategy for gambling, though. Like 0.5% alcohol in those things.

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Sky: I had good beer as a youngster and some was good. i can remember my dad would have Spate sometimes ( he lived in germany while in the army) but I could never afford the “good” stuff. I even lived in Chico for a year and had the Sierra Nevada brewery in town, never fell in love with it. Actually my favorite, their Wheat beer is no longer being made, those bastards. Side note, my buddy who home brews was able to replicate that Wheat beer.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Wheats are a nice summer beer. One I like is Sweaty Betty:

              http://www.beerreviewsonline.com/Beer.php?page=1&id=806

              Yeah I really only took an interest in beer when I got back from SK. Over there it was Guiness or bust. Had their own version of Crap and Crap lite. Only drank it if I was already drunk. Havent drank many German beers, I always here from good beer friends they miss the lagers over there.

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Sky: SK?

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
                  (link)

                  South Korea. Taught for two years

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: did you try dog?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Bo Shin Tong…and hell no. Mans best friend not mans best dinner.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: In all seriousness I know a lot of guys who spent their military years stationed there and being from LA area I’ve known a lot of Koreans and the dog thing aint no joke. I’m not even trying to be racially insensitive, they are down over there

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Oh I know. Lived next to a shop that did it. Guess you can call me a hypocrite – I eat any other meat that westerners eat – but the dog has been genetically engineered throughout history to befriend humanity. I wouldnt eat my best friend who’s human, not doing it to a four-legged one.

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Sky: I lived in England, oh how i miss that beer

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
                  (link)

                  You talking Guinness? Or were there ones in particular you’d suggest?

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: this will be long, i will make a new post

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I’ve always liked beer, but I never knew that there could be so much pleasure in beer that didn’t actually taste like ‘beer’.

        Yeah, I’m home, and I’ve drunk a couple of IPAs…

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
          (link)

          @Steve: IPyeAh!!!!!!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Spiderman is currently webbing the interior of your cranium. IPAs, Witbier, ESB are probably my faves. Funny thing is the beer world got watered down in the US, especially after prohibition. One thing Jimmy Carter did right was allow people to brew at home again.

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Sky: I did not know that….The more you know!

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Yeah, I’m a huge dog person. I got the info from something I streamed on Netflix. If you’re ever interested:

              http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1717367/

              Dogs Decoded. Also watched ‘The Science of Dog’. Some overlap but the subject fascinates me. Explains a lot of things that dog people have already experienced but couldn’t quite put their finger on. Anyways, with all this ‘dog food for man’ talk I’m gonna go hug my pit/lab mix before work.

  55. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    oh how I miss January and all the winter brilliance it brings. But now we are getting to the opening of leagues and guess what comes to us in all its irrelevance…MOCK DRAFTS. What a great concept you say, well you are wrong. As wrong as the idiots I’ve met that swear Vlad Guerrero was on the Angels when they won the World Series in ’02. These are the biggest waste of a fantasy baseballer’s brain cells, besides weed and beer of course, and really only serve to make you excited for a game that you are going to play anyway.

    Why does Jack hate these so much you might ask, probably not, but for the sake of this rant, humor me. What is the point of drafting with random strangers that you won’t be playing with in draft slots you probably won’t have to gauge where players will fall on draft day when most drafts are over a month away. Granted if you really feel a need to play pretend then do it a day or two before the actual draft so you know where guys are currently ranked and what effect spring is having, then so be it. Let’s say you’re a Yahooer, who is notorious for moving hot drafted buried players up in the rankings numerous times as the season gets closer, then what you do today will only piss you off later. Now if you are playing a public league with a bunch of people you don’t know, that will quit before June then sure go ahead and mock your little heart out. But if you are in the RCL, wake the hell up. we are all reading the same writers, getting the same strategy advice, know all the same recommended sleepers. I think I have seen enough Mock’s already posted in the comments looking for that acceptance that you drafted well. “oh grey, please validate my mastery of your advice against people I won’t be playing against”, yeah that should really help you sleep better at night. This isn’t like riding invisible horses, because that is still cool and mock drafting is just schmock schafting….utter non sense.

    Hey I’ll give you guys a good idea, go read the geniuses on yahoo, roto world or cbs and then come back with questions about why their opinions are so different than razz’s. That might be helpful when not everyone in your league is a razzball reader. But seriously spend more time just taking in all the brillance in and letting it marinate. stop wasting your time with mocksense, you see what I did there, I turned nonsense into mocksense because mock is a non, a negative. I must admit in my early years I did mocks and the only time it was helpful was when I was in a larger league and got my drafting spot and was able to ballpark what MIGHT be available, but at the end of the day it did me little good because EVERYONE you play against will do this game different and that ain’t no joke.

    **Please note** my hateful rants are a result of my evil 3rd personality and do not reflect the thoughts and ideas of my other personalities.

    Just like spring I need to start getting my warm up rants going, its good to get back on the mound.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Then you’ll appreciate the #Razzballmock were doing on twitter amongst various RazzWriters right now. I agree a mock forum with robots and random people who may or may not even be drafting is pointless

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Sky: damn the hate of my 3rd personality but like sex there are always exceptions to the rule….I don’t even know what that means but i’m going to stick with the statement.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Ha, that makes two of us! But yeah, a real mock requires others you know are invested. If they aren’t there, you have no basis to know whether it was worth a piss.

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Sky: its all MOCKlarkey

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Only use them to feel for where a few guys are going in the draft. Usually outside the top 80, there’s massive value volatility because people start filling needs rather than looking for actual value

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
                (link)

                @Sky: If you have played multiple years with the same guys you will know how they will draft and that is the best measuring stick

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
                  (link)

                  Well yes, assuming youre drafting with the same guys every year.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: a lot of the commentors reference playing in keepers and/or in the same league from previous season’s.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Oh sure. Though even in keepers, it’s good to know where a Lawrie is going in general. Gives you a gauge.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: bad example, he’s going to be all over the place, he’s a put your value on him and stick to it guy.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, it was late. Was just a name that came to mind. Was moreso an ‘insert name here’ than an actual example.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                I agree with Sky… Mocks are solid to see how others are thinking and to get a feel for your own drafting in practice, but you really need a full mock of dedicated drafters in it with you otherwise it doesn’t give you a very good idea of much…

                • Jack Full of Hate says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: kinda truish, but i think you need to be closer to real draft time to know where people will be going, spring stats are always in play, injuries, WBC this year and how providers have adjusted rankings. It was either last year or two years ago that Yahoo had Aaron hill in the 200′s and then moved him up a 100 spots 2 weeks before the season started. also your draft position means a lot. you know what read the rant.

                  also thats all you got for me after that hateful expression of affection blessed upon your blog. I’m going to bed a little sadder than usual, better get out my oversized waterprrof pillow

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Yeah, and I tell people to draft as close to the beginning of the season as possible and those things do factor in… Sometimes it helps people just to do a mock to get a feel for what happens if so-and-so is taken right before you go where do you go next…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: I get it, but i just get tired of reading peoples mocks in the comments. I also needed to take some practice rants before the season, you know, get into form. Also to reference above your dad is a genius

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Listen to you, you’re almost Jack Full of Tolerance…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: those are fighting words, but i’ll let it slide with you being a religous figure like the pope…. mustached messiah

                    • Steve says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: I hear you. I used to do heaps of mocks but don’t so much anymore, because it’s hard to match closely what happens my actual leagues.

                      I use them as a test (as you say) as a test of decision-making at a given point in the draft as much as anything else.

  56. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    The beer in England is a trip. First is the temp, which for imports there it blows but it really works with theirs. The guiness is great, the Newcastle is different, it tasted a lot different and quite good. I actually open one and let it sit untouched for 20 minutes before i drink it. I like it flatter. Then you have these things called Bitters. It room temp flat beer that they fill from the bottom of the glass through a long curved tube. Goes down fast so you pound that stuff if you choose. I know that what they export is different than what they serve there for a lot of the brews. I think I had three different tasting Heinekens when i was in Europe. The one at the brewery, the import in England and the export in England. Always thought it was weird they had both.

    To steve do they still have fosters ice?

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
      (link)

      @Jack Full of Hate: the ESB was awesome there, can’t remember the names, it was 97 and i smoked a lot of hash, i mean a lot of HASH when i lived there.

  57. Club Sauce says:
    (link)

    This may be answered somewhere already… but I’m trying to figure out how to most effectively utilize yall’s glorious rankings. How should we view dramatic differences between your rankings and the point shares projections? For example, I’m trying to decide whether I should keep Des Jennings or Tony Rizzo who both have the same keeper value. Point shares has Rizzo around 40 and Jennings near 150. You have Jennings near 50 and Rizzo at 91.

    Any advice for that specific situation and just generally how we can utilize both set of rankings/projections?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Jennings is being hurt in PS by a projected .240 average… If you think he’ll be better than that, then I’d move him up… I’d go with Jennings over Rizzo… Barely…

      • Club Sauce says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thank you, sir. That’s where I was leaning, and I was hoping I could get Rizzo cheap in the draft since Yahoo has him 14th, and my competitors stick to those rankings pretty closely.

  58. Clint says:
    (link)

    Which 3 should I keep out of: McCutchen (duh), Reyes, Weaver, Gio Gonzalez, D Jennings, & Starlin Castro??? I almost took first place last year as a Razz newby….lookin to win it all this time!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Castro, McCutchen and Gio… Let’s get you the win!

  59. Jason says:
    (link)

    First of all, thank you for your blog. This will be season two for me. Last season was not so good for me using LIMA (Longoria, Sanchez).

    For keeper leagues, does PEDS still play out the same as you described? Or do I have to adjust to for position scarcity? With 3-4 keepers (14 teams), you can imagine most of the top tier players are taken before the draft even begins.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It doesn’t change for position scarcity… You should move up younger players a tad…

  60. Corey Taylor says:
    (link)

    SP are overpowered in my 12 team league. H2H points. Walks -1, ER -2, Hits -1, Hit batsmen -1, Innings 3, K’s 1, Quality starts 3, Saves 10, Wins 10. Verlander / Kershaw are target for 800 plus total points, Where Miggy is at ~690 for the top hitter. With these settings, does this PED stat change for me? Thanks. Been reading for 3 plus years. Love the humor. Yet to win. Howie Kendrick!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Hopefully we get you the win this year… Yeah, in that league you need to draft higher SPs…

  61. Nojas says:
    (link)

    I agree with your advice on early hitters & late pitchers. My questions is at what point do you have to alter your strategy based on all the other manangers are loading up on pitching. There must be a point where grabbing arms beats grabbing bats.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Stick to your game plan and don’t get caught up in what others are doing…

  62. Jvh4 says:
    (link)

    Great article. I failed at employing this last year, now struggling with my keeper to get thing back on track. 12 team mixed points auction. 1 each infield + MI and CI 4 OF. 2 off bench. 7 SP 2 RP 1 P 1 P bench.

    Moustakas and Minor protected at $3 each as call ups.
    Profar and Myers in the minors. The good news ends there. Can keep 4 at least 1 hitter and 1 pitcher. $260.

    Wieters 18, wilin Rosario 4, teixiera 26, morneau 12, berkman 6, b Phillips gotta throw back, Rollins 15, cozart 1, headley 14, m young 18, Holliday 31, choo 24, swisher 4, David Murphy 1, greinke 21, garza 17, wandy r 9, McCarthy 8, homer b 5, motte 8, betancourt 3

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Greinke, Bailey, Headley, Motte, Betancourt, Swisher, Cozart, Wilin Rosario…

      • Jvh4 says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks, Grey. Since my keepers are weak, would you change the draft strategy at all? Like accept a bridge year and build around Myers and Profar for next year? The other extreme; one guy had goldy at $9 do I give up one of my minor leaguers?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          @Jvh4: Your keepers aren’t that weak… I’d try to win it this year…

Comments are closed.